Leftovers!

I may have mentioned that I have about four or five blog items that are half done. So I had to make a decision: Do I take the time necessary to finish them, polish them and make them each full items. Or do I just shove them into one ridiculously long leftover entry?

Like with food: I choose leftovers.

Leftover item 1: Bad hitting and defense.

I have this theory that I wanted to test out: I suspect that the very best defensive players at each position are probably the very worst hitters at those positions. I have two reasons to believe this.

1. Fielding and hitting are entirely different skills. Yes, they both take athleticism, hand-eye coordination, but that's about all the have in common. So I would ask: What is the likelihood that a player is all-time great at both? I have a friend, the AP columnist Jim Litke, who was once asked how many professional golfers also had brilliant minds. He said: Zero. "God doesn't give out that many gifts to people."

Sure, there have been some all-time great fielders AND all-time great hitters through the years, the inner-ring Hall of Famers -- Mays, Bonds, Schmidt, Clemente, Bench and so on. But I would imagine that just as some of the greatest hitters weren't much in the field (Ted Williams, Reggie Jackson, MannyBeingManny, Harmon Killebrew come to mind), some of the best fielders had to be lousy hitters.

2. There would be no way for a lousy hitter to stay in the lineup over many years unless he offered some notable skill. It seems to me that skill, in most cases, would be outstanding defense. (Bill James believes the opposite to be true as well, which is why he suggests that some great hitter like Derek Jeter is probably the worst defensive shortstop ever. He's certainly the worst defensive shortstop ever to win three Gold Gloves).

Anyway, let's see if I'm right. I've looked at each position, minimum 5,000 plate appearances, and tried to come up with the worst hitter since 1900 (using some vague compilation of OPS, runs created and OPS+).

First base
Worst hitter: George Stovall.
In the picture: Ed Kranepool and Kitty Bransfield.
Defensive worth: Stovall was a Deadball era hitter who didn't offer much of anything at the plate. He hit .265 with no power, no walks, no nothing. It seems pretty clear that he's the worst hitting first baseman in baseball history. But, from what I can tell, he was a slick defensive first baseman, so he fits the forumula. ... Ed Kranepool and Kitty Bransfield ... not so much. Couldn't hit. Couldn't field either.

Second base
Worst hitter: Ski Melillo.
In the picture: Sandy Alomar Sr.
Defensive worth: Here's what I'm talking about. Ski was a miserable hitter ... a career 63 OPS+. That's really bad. But he was a fabulous defensive second baseman. And he also ate nothing but spinach for a time, so you have to admire the Popeye determination. ... Alomar was not an all-time great defensively, but he kept playing because of his speed and because managers were convinced he had amazing range -- the overall numbers do not necessarily bear this out (except in 1970-71) but maybe they knew something that isn't in the numbers.

Shortstop
Worst hitter: George McBride
In the picture: Ed Brinkman and Mark Belanger.
Defensive worth: McBride is one of the worst hitters in baseball history. He's also one of the best defensive shortstops ever. He so perfectly fits my theory, I may call it the "McBride Theory" or "Father of the McBride" or some other awful pun. ... Bill James tells a classic story about McBride. Apparently he was making a lot of errors early in his career, and the fans were giving him Hell. Well one day, a drunk ran on the field, picked up McBride's glove (back then, players would leave their gloves on the field) and acted like a major smart-ass. The cops in 1909 were not overly sensitive folks (you think it was crazy in '08), and so they beat the living heck out of the guy in full view of the crowd. As he was taken away, McBride nodded to the drunk. The crowd cheered McBride, his fielding slump ended and he became one of the most popular players ever in Washington. ... Brinkman couldn't hit but he won a Gold Glove in 1972 and went 72 straight games without an error. Belanger was, of course, one of the best defensive shortstops ever.

Third base
Worst hitter: Aurelio Rodriguez
In the picture: Clete Boyer and Ken Reitz
Defensive worth: In my memory, Aurelio Rodriguez had the very best throwing arm I ever saw at third base. That might have been because I was a kid and easily impressed, but wow, I used to just watch him warm up between innings. He threw the ball so hard and so effortlessly. I'm convinced it was that amazing arm that got him more than 6,000 at-bats in the big leagues, even though he hit .237 with no power. I'm not sure he was an all-time great defensive third baseman. He did win one Gold Glove. Either way that arm was a wonder -- managers may have played him just to see him make that throw across the infield ... I have spoken with a lot of people who are absolutely convinced that Clete Boyer was the best fielding third baseman who ever lived. Ken Reitz won a Gold Glove in 1975 before Mike Schmidt took over, but I'm not sure he was a supreme fielder. As a hitter, he did ground into a lot of double plays.

Left field
Worst hitter: Vince Coleman
In the picture: Howie Shanks and Dave Collins
Defensive worth: There really aren't too many legendarily bad-hitting left fielders -- for pretty obvious reasons. Nobody really cares what kind of defense you get out there. The Royals just called up big-time hitting prospect Billy Butler, who is so bad defensively (as one brilliant reader points out) they put in EMIL BROWN as a defensive replacement. ... Coleman looks to be by far the worst hitter to have a sustained career in left field (83 OPS+) but he played for one reason and one reason alone: Speed. Man could he fly. He stole 100 bases each of his first three seasons, which is amazing for a guy couldn't get on base until that third year. The speed didn't really help his defense much -- he didn't get to nearly as many balls as you would expect, and everybody tried to run on his weak arm (he did have double digit assists his first four seasons). ... Howie Shanks was an amazing defensive player, who moved to third base late in his career. Dave Collins was not a particularly good fielder, but he was a more than respectable hitter for much of his career, and he stole 79 bases one season. He was one awful signing by the Yankees though. I should do a blog on players who could not handle Yankee Stadium. Maybe I'll get my man Alex Belth to help me.

Center field
Worst hitter: Omar Moreno
In the picture: Rick Manning and Mickey Stanley
Defensive worth: Man, I was rooting for Paul Blair to be here -- but Blair was a significantly better hitter than I remembered. His 1969 season (.285 average, 26 homers, 20 steals) was terrific, and he was just as good in '67, about as good three or four other years. It's just that by the time I started following baseball -- around 1975 -- he couldn't hit anymore. ... Anyway, Omar Moreno works OK too. He was another slap hitter who had a long career because of his speed. But unlike Coleman, he was a superior defensive center fielder. He didn't necessarily have a great defensive reputation (he never won a Gold Glove) but his defensive statistics are pretty spectacular -- he got to everything -- and Bill James in "Win Shares" gives him the rare "A+" defensive rating. ... Rick Manning was a childhood hero, and his Gold Glove in '76 is one of the proudest sports moments of my childhood (which tells you something about the sports in my childhood). I have no idea if he deserved it. Mickey Stanley was, of course, a terrific outfielder -- a four-time Gold Glover.

Right field
Worst hitter: Bob Kennedy
In the picture: Dave Philley and Shano Collins.
Defensive worth: What an odd career. In 1940, Bob Kennedy was called up to play every day in the big leagues -- he was 19. He had, best I can tell, an absolutely miserable season. He had an OPS+ that year of 59 -- Schoolboy Rowe, the pitcher, had a much higer OPS+. Kennedy was caught stealing 7 out of 10 time. He made 33 errors at third base. He hit into 17 double plays. OK, he was overmatched -- hey, he was a kid. But here's the thing: He got an MVP vote. Well, he got three MVP points, which means either one person voted him seventh or three people voted him 10th or something. He tied Charlie Gehringer and Joe Gordon for 23rd in the MVP balloting. ... Anyway, he soon moved to the outfield. He never did hit. And to be brutally honest, he wasn't much of a defensive outfielder either, though he had a strong arm. He is one of only six players (at last check) to have exactly the same number of runs scored and RBIs -- 514 each. ... Philley and Collins both had the reputation of being pretty good defensive outfielders.

Catcher
Worst hitter: Jim Hegan
In the picture: Brad Ausmus and Ray Schalk
Defensive worth: Here, the formula works perfectly. Hegan has the reputation of being one of the great defensive catchers ever. Ausmus is also supposed to be terrific defensively -- I actually ranked him No. 1 in the Fielding Bible Awards last year, in large part because I figured he's SUCH a bad hitter, he must be unreal defensively. Schalk is in the Hall of Fame for his defense.

So, overall, I would say the McBride Formula works. Show me a bad hitter in the big leagues, and I will show you a guy that generally can play some serious defense. This does not include Neifi Perez.

Leftover item 2: MVPs and the Hall of Fame

A brilliant reader happened to ask a question that I had wondered about myself just a few days earlier: How many Most Valuable Players go to the Hall of Fame? More to the point; Does winning an MVP award help a players' Hall of Fame case. I've long said that Alan Trammell would be a much more popular Hall of Fame candidate had he won the MVP award he richly deserved in 1987. But is that true?

1910s
MVPs in the Hall: 5 (Eddie Collins, Walter Johnson, Tris Speaker, Ty Cobb, Johnny Evers).
MVPs not in the Hall: 3 (Frank Schulte, Larry Doyle, Jake Daubert).
Comment: There were only MVPs chosen from 1911-1914 -- and all four of the American League MVPs are in the Hall of Fame. Three National Leaguers -- Wildfire Schulte, Laughing Larry Doyle and Jake Daubert -- are not. None of those three had Hall of Fame careers -- among them only Daubert ever received any consideration as far as I know, and he didn't receive much.

1920s
MVPs in the Hall: 8 (George Sisler, Babe Ruth, Dazzy Vance, Paul Waner, Lou Gehrig, Jimmy Bottomley, Mickey Cochrane, Rogers Hornsby -- does not include Walter Johnson who was listed in the 1910s)
MVPs not in the Hall: 3 (Roger Peckinpaugh, Bob O'Farrell, George Burns).
Comment: For some reason, I thought George Burns was in the Hall of Fame. Maybe it's because there are like a half dozen famous George Burnses -- there was Sir George Burns the shipping magnate, George Burns the golfer (won the Bing Crosby one year), George Burns the 5-foot-7 outfielder who led the National League in walks five times, George Burns the Australian politician who did so little he doesn't even have his own Wikipedia entry, this George Burns the MVP who was called Tioga George and hit .358 with 114 RBIs in 1926. And, of course, there's George Burns. Say goodnight Gracie ... By the way, we're only counting each player once -- Walter Johnson also won an MVP in the 1920s so there are really 9 MVPs in the Hall. But we already counted the Big Train in the 1910s.

1930s
MVPs in the Hall: 11 (Frankie Frisch, Lefty Grove, Chuck Klein, Jimmie Foxx, Carl Hubbell, Dizzy Dean, Mickey Cochrane, Gabby Hartnett, Joe Medwick, Charlie Gehringer, Ernie Lombardi).
MVPs not in the Hall: 1 (Bucky Walters).
Comment: Yikes. From 1927-39 every single MVP winner made it into the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what that means. Is that a sign that we have tended to romantacize players in the 1930s, or is it that the great players won MVP awards then. ... The only MVP of the 1930s not to the make the Hall was pitcher Bucky Walters. He had the best year of his career (27-11, 2.29 ERA). He had two more really good years, maybe three, and he won 198 games in his career. ... Jimmie Foxx won three, Lou Gehrig won his second, Mickey Cochrane won his second .

1940s
MVPs in the Hall: 5 (Jackie Robinson, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Lou Boudreau, Hal Newhouser -- does not include DiMaggio and Greenberg who win the 1930s)
MVPs not in the Hall: 8 (Frank McCormick, Dolph Camilli, Joe Gordon, Mort Cooper, Spud Chandler, Marty Marion, Phil Cavaretta, Bob Elliott).
Comment: We have a shift here -- in large part because of the war. Most of the MVPs are not in the Hall. ... I'd say that among the non-Hall of Famers, there was been serious consideration for Gordon and maybe some for Marty Marion. Gordon probably didn't get the votes because of the two-plus seasons he missed for the war and because he retired fairly young; Marion didn't hit enough ... Of the five MVPs in the Hall, all of them were going anyway except perhaps for Hal Newhouser. He only has 207 victories and his World Series ERA of 6.53 wasn't likely to help him. But he had the back-to-back MVP awards, and the veteran's committee honored him almost 40 years after he retired.

1950s
MVPs in the Hall: 8 (Phil Rizzuto, Roy Campanella, Yogi Berra, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks*, Nellie Fox).
MVPs not in the Hall: 6 (Jim Konstanty, Hank Sauer, Bobby Shantz, Al Rosen, Don Newcombe, Jackie Jensen).
Comment: In the plus column, you could argue that Rizzuto's MVP award in 1950 helped him finally get into the Hall. Well, it wasn't so much the actual award -- it was the fact the the Scooter had one amazing season. He was so borderline anyway -- if he doesn't have the 1950 season, there's no way he's in the Hall of Fame. Of course you could say that about a lot of players. ... Campy's three MVP awards probably had a lot to do with his Hall of Fame selection as well since he had such a short career, with the Negro Leagues on one side and tragedy on the other. ... There are a lot of could-have-beens among the non-Hall of Famers. One of the more interesting ones is Newcombe, who certainly looked like a Hall of Famer at age 30. That was his MVP year -- he went 27-7 (third time he won 20). He was an outstanding hitter (in 1955, he hit .359 with seven homers). But his MVP year was his last great year -- it was pretty much his last good year. So you look back at his career -- he lost part of his youth in the Negro Leagues, he lost two and a half seasons in Korea and he was basically done at 30. The fates worked against him, that's for sure.

1960s
MVPs in the Hall: 9 (Sandy Koufax, Brooks Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Frank Robinson*, Orlando Cepeda, Carl Yastrzemski, Bob Gibson, Willie McCovey, Harmon Killebrew -- does not include Mantle and Mays).
MVPs not in the Hall: 7 (Dick Groat, Roger Maris*, Maury Wills, Elston Howard, Ken Boyer, Zoilo Versalles, Denny McLain).
Comment: Cepeda's MVP award may have helped him get into the Hall. It seems like an MVP award can help push up a borderline case. Though it has not helped Ken Boyer. ... What would have happened had Ron Santo won the MVP in 1967 instead of Cepeda? It wasn't close -- Cepeda received all 20 first place votes. But Santo finished fourth, his highest finished in the voting. Would Santo be in the Hall if their roles had been reveserd? ... Maris is the first two-time MVP not voted into the Hall of Fame.

1970s
MVPs in the Hall: 5 (Johnny Bench*, Reggie Jackson, Joe Morgan*, Rod Carew, Willie Stargell).
MVPS not in the Hall: 13 (Joe Torre, Vida Blue, Dick Allen, Pete Rose, Steve Garvey, Jeff Burroughs, Fred Lynn, Thurman Munson, George Foster, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Keith Hernandez, Don Baylor).
Comment: Are 1970s era players underrepresented in the Hall of Fame? Maybe that's worth a study, I don't know. I remember many of these MVPs were called "future Hall of Famers" in newspaper articles, on television and in the song "Talkin' Baseball." I know everybody thought Garvey, Parker and Rice were sure things, Lynn too. ... The amazing thing to me about Vida Blue is not how thoroughly he screwed up a Hall of Fame career (though he obviously did). It's how close he came to being a Hall of Fame EVEN AFTER he screwed everything up. He has three Hall of Famers among his Baseball Reference comps (Catfish, Newhouser, Drysdale). He won 207 games and struck out almost 2,200 batters even though he'd done most of his good work by the time he was 26. ... Is Keith Hernandez a legit Hall of Fame candidate? My buddy Mike Vaccaro says yes -- an MVP, 2,200 hits and one of the best defensive first basemen ever. I don't see it.

1980s
MVPs in the Hall of Fame: 5 (George Brett, Rollie Fingers, Mike Schmidt**, Robin Yount, Cal Ripken).
MVPs not in the Hall of Fame: 9 (Dale Murphy*, Willie McGee, Don Mattingly, Willie Hernandez, Andre Dawson, George Bell, Kirk Gibson, Jose Canseco, Kevin Mitchell).
Comment: The Don Mattingly for the Hall people are working hard, I can tell you that. ... I think Dawson will gain momentum over time. ... Dale Murphy, it seems, will come up short; he joins Roger Maris as a two-time MVP who will not make the Hall of Fame.

Dale Murphy: .265, 398, 1266 -- 121 OPS+ ... five time Gold Glove winner ... Seven-time All-Star ... Roberto Clemente Award winner ... Lou Gehrig Memorial Award winner ... One of baseball's all-time good guys ... Current steroid crusader.

Roger Maris: .260, 275, 851 -- 127 OPS+ ... Won a Gold Glove in 1960 ... Four-time All-Star ... Broke Babe Ruth's single-season home run record and lost hair in the process ... Hit .358 in the 1967 World Series ... Quiet and humble man ... Did not intentionally walk even one time in his 61 homer season (Mantle was hitting behind him).

I think Rollie Fingers MVP award probably helped his Hall of Fame case considerably. None of his comps are in the Hall of Fame -- including Goose Gossage, who was (I think) a better pitcher. Fingers also had the good fortune of being the first big-time saves reliever into the clubhouse.

1990s
MVPs in the Hall of Fame: 1 (Dennis Eckersley -- Cal Ripken was listed in the 1980s)
MVPs not in the Hall of Fame: 2 (Terry Pendleton, Ken Caminiti).
Comments: It's too early for most of these guys, but I think it's OK now to project that Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Pudge Rodriguez, Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey will go into the Hall of Fame. I think Jeff Bagwell and Barry Larkin will go as well. I don't know how people will respond to Sammy Sosa or Larry Walker, for different reasons. Mo Vaughn and Juan Gonzalez are on the outside looking in. And Chipper Jones might still have a little work left to do. ... Dennis Eckersley is a fascinating Hall of Fame case to me. He went into the Hall of Fame instantly, that first year, even though he was certainly not anything close to a Hall of Fame starter, and he was only a great closer for about six years. I'm not saying Eckersley shouldn't be in the Hall -- I don't know that. I'm just surprised he got there so easily.

So overall: I've got 57 MVPs who are in the Hall of Fame and 52 who are not. But I would also have to say that only in rare cases did those MVP awards actually have any effect in the voters' thinking.

Leftover item 3: Papi vs. Morneau

A lot of people were pretty outraged that Justin Morneau won the MVP award over Derek Jeter. Most of us attributed that vote to RBIs -- Morneau had 130 of them, Jeter had 97, and while there were other factors (Morneau supposedly carried the Twins when they needed him most), I think that was probably decisive.

But, as I mentioned in my previous entry, David Ortiz had more RBIs than Morneau. In fact, David Ortiz's offensive numbers were far, far superior to Morneau's in every single way except batting average. Morneau hit .321 to Papi's .287. And, sadly, people still look first at batting average. It's ingrained in us.

Look: Papi hit 20 more homers than Morneau. He scored 18 more runs. He had seven more RBIs. His on-base percentage was almost 40 points higher, and his slugging percentage was SEVENTY FIVE points higher. His OPS+ was 164 (to Morneau's 140). This wasn't close.

Papi did not get a single first place MVP vote. Only two voters put Ortiz ahead of Morneau on their ballots. So why? I've put in my theory that it was entirely because the Twins won and the Red Sox didn't. Since then, though, I have received emails from people who have different theories. Some say it's because Ortiz was a DH -- I have trouble buying that. I mean, sure, that was a factor but nobody thinks Morneau is a particularly good defensive first baseman. I can't imagine too many people thinking that Ortiz's huge offensive advantage was made up by Morneau's slick fielding at first base.

I've also heard it was because Papi got hurt at the end of the season. Again, I don't think that was a huge factor. His numbers were vastly superior to Morneau's anyway. I think you could say Travis Hafner's MVP case was hurt because of injuries (he had a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage than either one). But even if Papi had played the last two weeks, I don't think he could have made his case much clearer.

I come back to the simple belief: The MVP will usually be the best slugger (a.k.a. high RBI man) on a contending team.