Bo Knows Excitement, Part 1

Wrote a fun column over the weekend about Bo Jackson, and it made me think about a couple of things. One it made remember just how remarkable Bo was ... he was never a great baseball player, and he didn't last long enough to be a great football player. But I think he just might be America's last sports folk hero. With all the camera angles we have now, the constant (and instant) analysis, the 297 back-to-back-to-back-to-back SportsCenters replaying every home run, dunk and chip-in countless times, the relentless talk radio voices and newspaper columnists breaking down every single thing, I'm just not sure anyone or anything can stand up to the scrutiny. If Babe Ruth had hit his called-shot home run in 2006, we would have seen it so many times in so many ways and heard so many opinions about it, that within three days it would have seemed old and tired and ordinary.

Bo just missed that. Sure, he was plenty hyped. But, for example, if you ever see a replay of his greatest play -- the throw from the wall that beat Harold Reynolds -- you will notice that the camera angle doesn't actually show the throw. It shows Bo chasing down the ball. Then it shows Reynolds rounding third. Then it shows Bo picking the ball. Then it shows Reynolds at the plate getting tagged out by Bob Boone. It's a terrible replay. You can't see anything. And it's a beautiful replay. You can't see anything.

Bo also made me wonder about this: Who are the 25 most exciting players in baseball? We're not talking the best players or the most-well rounded or the most underrated over overrated or any of that. I put together a formula (of course) that takes into account:

1. Triples (the most exciting play in baseball).
2. Stolen bases
3. Home runs
4. Batting average (but not on-base percentage -- walks are not exciting)
5. Slugging percentage
6. Defensive brilliance
7. X Factor.

Obviously defensive brilliance and X Factor are subjective criteria, but really in the end this whole concept is subjective. Anyway, with 100 as a base (Gary Sheffield scored exactly 100, for what that means), the formula says these are the 25 most exciting players in baseball today:

PLUG ALERT: OK, first, if you happen to live in the St. Louis area -- or know somebody who does -- I will be at the St. Louis County Library at 7 p.m. on Wednesday to discuss The Soul of Baseball and sign books. And then Thursday morning, I will be at the Maplewood U.S. Cellular Store from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. -- honestly I'm a bit worried about that one. A few years ago, I wrote an essay for a George Brett book, and they asked me to sign books at a mall, and like three people showed up. All three were disappointed that I was not George Brett. So if you would show up, I'd appreciate it.

OK, back to the regularly schedule blog:

25. Torii Hunter.
Excitement Score: 113

OK, I'll admit this ... I cheated a little bit. Hunter was actually tied with Bobby Abreu. Well, actually Abreu was ahead by decimal points. But it's got to be a blip in the system because Bobby Abreu is an astonishingly UNexciting player, at least for me. He's been a great player, don't get me wrong. But his at-bats, while savagely effective (as his .409 on-base percentage attests), are pretty much like watching Merchant and Ivory dramas. Ball. Foul. Ball. Man can't get in touch with his feelings. Foul. Ball. Foul. Foul. Woman feels unloved. Foul. Foul.

Abreu also stopped hitting for power somewhere along the way, and the last couple of years he's been sort of a Wally Joyner who won't swing the bat. Not exciting. I don't care what the system says.

Torii Hunter is probably not quite the defensive wizard he was a few years ago (though he's really hitting the heck out of the ball this year). He's still awfully good. And he's made several of the most amazing plays I've seen in centerfield. He's one of the very few players out there who consistently would run down balls that seemed like sure doubles. Every time an outfielder runs more than five feet to catch a ball, an announcer will usually say, "He stole a double from blah blah blah," but it's rarely a true stolen double. Hunter would really steal doubles.

(Along these lines: Very, very rarely does a guy actually "steal" a home run. Almost always when a guy leaps at the wall and makes a great catch, he's usually stealing a double -- the ball would not have actually left the yard. A true stolen home run -- there are maybe a half dozen of those every year -- are things to behold).

24. Derrek Lee
Excitement score: 114

I would not have necessarily put him on the list -- when I think "excitement" Derrek Lee isn't the first name that pops into mind -- but his number came up. And it actually fits: I saw Derrek Lee hit one of the five hardest-hit-balls of my lifetime at a game. I was with Buck O'Neil -- this was late April 2005 -- and at the time Lee was something like about .430. He was on everything. Late in the game he came up, and he rocketed a ball that must have hit the center field wall in about 0.3 seconds. It was startling -- the ball hit off the wall before the Houston centerfielder had taken two steps. I remember Buck said, "Oh my," and I tried to get him to say it was as hard a ball as he's ever seen hit. He wouldn't go there -- I guess he thought Josh Gibson, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams hit a few balls hard too. But he was impressed.

23. David Wright
Excitement score: 114

Remember the New York Mets third base situation was one of the all-time jokes in baseball history -- Steve Rushin wrote a whole poem of Mets third basemen.

You know what? That's really changed. Over the last 10 years, Mets third baseman (that would include Wright, Robin Ventura, Edgardo Alfonzo and one rather unfortunate Ty Wigginton year) have averaged .285 with 20 homers, 80 RBis, 80 runs and a 117 OPS.

Last year, Wright stole 20 bases and was caught only five times. This year he has already stolen 10 bases and he has not been caught yet. He's a pretty remarkable athlete. The left side of that Mets infield is something else.

Most stolen bases by a third baseman in a season (since 1920)
1. Chris Sabo, 1988: 46
2. Enos Cabell, 1977: 42.
3. Howard Johnson, 1989: 41
4. Bill Werber, 1934: 40
5. Enos Cabell, 1979: 37
(tie): Carney Lansford, 1989: 37
(tie): Joe Foy, 1969: 37
8. Bill Werber, 1937: 35
(tie): Enos Cabell, 1976: 35
(tie): Jerry Royster, 1979: 35

OK, before moving on I just have to say I'm absolutely stunned that Carney Lansford stole 37 bases in a season. I remember Lansford being SLOW -- I mean, I had a vivid picture in my mind of him being a double play machine. The funny part is that my memory was right and wrong. In the middle of Lansford's career -- in part because of injuries -- he was ludicrously slow. In 1983, for instance, he stole three bases and was caught eight times. Two years later, he stole two bases in pretty much a full season.

But when he turned 30, he must have worked in a wind tunnel or something because that year he stole a career high 27 bases, the next year he stole a career high 29 bases, and the next year he had his 37-stolen base season (that year he also hit a career low 2 homers -- he turned into a poor-man's Juan Pierre). Weird.

22. Juan Pierre
Excitement score: 114

How many bases do we think Juan Pierre would have stolen had he played in a different era and a different team -- say with the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1970s or 1980s?

Let's compare him with Vince Coleman and Lou Brock in their big stolen base years.

Coleman (1985): 170 hits, 50 walks, 0 HBP, 110 steals, 25 CS.
Brock (1974): 194 hits, 61 walks, 2 HBP, 118 SB, 33 CS.
Pierre (2003): 204 hits, 55 walks, 5 HBP, 65 SB, 20 CS.

As you can see, Pierre got on base more than Coleman or Brock. He ran about half the time, though, and is stolen base percentage was considerably lower. If they had let him run at the same rate, I estimate he would have stolen about 121 bases in 2003. And he would have been caught 38 times.

I'll leave it smarter people to decide if that would have made him a more or less valuable player. But the stolen base is exciting.

21. Chase Utley
Excitement score: 115

I was listening to the radio somewhere or other -- it wasn't Kansas City -- and the broadcasters were absolutely blasting the Kansas City Royals for not selecting Chase Utley in the 2000 amateur draft. The Royals took the lamentable high school pitcher Mike Stodolka that year (although Stodolka is trying to make it back as a hitter now). I can't remember the exact context of the discussion, but I know on of them said something like, "Well, that's how you end up being a terrible organization ... by passing on Chase Utley."

Now, let's be clear: If someone wants to rip the Royals draft record, by all means, rip away. It's been awful. Stodolka is only one of a remarkable line of first-round flops (Colt Griffin, Jeff Austin, Dee Brown, Chris George, Dan Reichert being only a few). But to single out the Royals for not taking Chase Utley ... it's ridiculous. Fourteen teams passed on Utley, including the Twins, Tigers, Cardinals and White Sox, who have done OK.

That said, boy, it would be nice to have a time machine wouldn't it?

1997: Royals select ... Lance Berkman.
1998: Royals select ... C.C. Sabathia
1999: Royals select ... Barry Zito
2000: Royals select ... Chase Utley
2001: Royals select ... Jeremy Bonderman
2002: Royals select ... Nick Swisher

That might have made a difference.

20. Carlos Guillen
Excitement score: 115

A blip in the system -- he's really not a particularly exciting player. But he's a really GOOD player. Last three years he's hit .318, 320 and .320. This year, he's hitting .322. He gives you a little power, a little speed, he's not bad defensively.

19. Chone Figgins
Excitement score: 115

The Bill James Handbook has a breakdown of base running -- it measures how often runners go first to third, second to home, first to home on a double, get caught up on the bases, etc. The thing I really like about it, though, is that the numbers (for once) actually validate my own opinions. I've said that Mark Teahen is one of the best pure base runners I've seen and last year Teahen ranked seventh in baseball with a +22.

If someone had asked me: Who is the best base runner in baseball, I would have said Chone Figgins. To me, Figgins is the one guy in the American League who flat terrifies you when he gets on. He has the absolutely to steal second, steal third and score on a fly ball just beyond the infield. He's electifying as a runner.

And Bill James Handbook ranks Chone Figgins as the best base runner in baseball at +28.

18. David Ortiz
Excitement score: 116

Every time he comes to the plate in a big situation, it's a thrill -- even if you don't believe there is any such thing as a clutch hitter ... Will Ortiz go down in history as the best player in baseball history ever to be just released by his team after a reasonably good year? I mean, Ortiz hit .272 with 20 homers in 412 at bats -- which might not be the stuff of legends but:

1. He did have a .500 slugging percentage.
2. He was only 26.
3. It was clear-cut improvement over previous years.

The Twins, famously, did not feel like they could afford Papi -- especially if he had another middling year -- and so the Red Sox signed him as a free agent for barely more than a million bucks. Ortiz then made the club (over the objections of some) and hit 31 homers that year. The next year, the Red Sox had a decent season.

Will Papi ever win an MVP award? Maybe not. In 2005, he had all those clutch hits and lost out to A-Rod (who probably did deserve the award). In 2006, he had much, much bigger numbers than Justin Morneau, but lost out. I think as a DH he will simply have to blow away the competition to win the MVP ... maybe it should be that way, I don't know.

17. Brian Roberts
Excitement score: 118

I should say that I ranked all these players since 2004 ... and since then Brian Roberts has hit more doubles than any player in the American League. I have no idea what this has to do with anything, but it surprised me.

16. Matt Holiday
Excitement score: 120

Does it make a player more or less exciting to be a brutal outfielder. ... I don't know if Holliday is really a brutal outfielder, but in the three games he played against Kansas City recently, he was definitely brutal. Every play was an adventure. So, by definition, that's makes him more exciting, right? I mean, adventures are exciting, aren't they?

Anyway, Holiday is a fabulous hitter. He's a fun hitter to watch too -- doesn't walk, hacks at everything, hits bad pitches for doubles, etc. In that ballpark, he's something else.

By the way, his teammate Todd Helton just missed the list. But he will be No. 1 on hit by the end of the year because, as I said last entry, he's hitting .400 this season.

15. Derek Jeter
Excitement score: 121

I think this is legit. Like him or loathe him, Jeter plays just a little bit bigger than anybody else on the field. They boo him in Kansas City, for instance. If you think hard about that, it really makes no logical sense. As far as I know, Jeter has never said a single bad thing about Kansas City. He's never gotten in any trouble, never done an unclassy thing that I know of and even if he's an overrated defensive shortstop, he still plays the game exactly the way you would want your son to play it. I guess they boo him because he has come to represent the New York Yankees -- and it's a birthright for Kansas Citians to hate New York and the Yankees.

That's what I mean by Jeter being a little bigger than anyone else. Nobody in Kansas City would boo Robinson Cano.

14. Vladimir Guerrero
Excitement score: 123

I love watching him hit. And why not?

Top batting average, right-handed hitters since World War II (min. 5,000 PA):
1. Vlad Guerrero, .325
2. Kirby Puckett, .318
3. Derek Jeter, .318
4. Roberto Clemente, .317
5. Nomar Garciaparra, .317
6. Manny Ramirez, .313
7. Edgar Martinez, .312
8. Jackie Robinson, .311
9. George Kell, .310
10. Mike Piazza, .309

13. Johnny Damon
Excitement score: 123

Johnny has the unique talent of being able to look like the very worst player who ever played Major League baseball -- I mean a guy who looks like he will NEVER get another hit, not ever -- and also the unique talent of getting so hot that you wonder if he will ever, ever, ever make another out. I don't believe I have ever seen anyone hotter in my life than Damon from July 13 to August 10, 2000.

In that stretch, Johnny hit .492 with 61 hits in 28 games. It was almost impossible to believe. In 12 of those 28 games, he got three hits or more. He would bloop one over the third baseman's head, then dunk a looper in front of the centerfield, then rocket a double down the first base line, then lay down a perfect bunt, then hit a chopper for an infield hit ... it was ludicrous, really.

That season, Damon ended up hitting .327. On May 25th, he was hitting .243. I don't think he's quite as make or break now as he used to be ... but he's still fun to watch. Except when he's throwing.

Quick interruption: The Royals lost tonight 9-1. It's their fifth straight loss, and four of those have been by seven runs or more. That's got to be some sort of team record. You know last week the Royals won eight of 10 games and gave people a little reason to get excited. Nobody knows how to spoil a party quite like the Royals.

12. Alfonso Soriano
Excitement score: 124

Soriano has been put on so many overrated lists that it has to be only a matter of time before the backlash begins and people start considering him underrated.

11. Alex Rodriguez
Excitement score: 124

Well, A-Rod has found a new way to tick off New York. How about getting off to a superhuman start so that everybody thinks you're going to hit 80 homers and drive in 200 runs? And then, of course, you fall off to a more normal pace just as the Yankees collapse around you. We can now project that A-Rod is about have the least appreciated 50-homer season in baseball history.

OK, several people have suggested that I start breaking up these entries in two ... that way I can actually get some sleep. So we will put up the Top 10 list in the next couple of days.