Monday, May 14, 2007

It's not the size of the market ...

One of the more archaic things about being a newspaper columnist in this era of the Internet, 24-hour news channels and wall-to-wall sports talk radio is this crazy little thing called "the early column." We still deliver newspapers to your door (well, maybe not YOUR door) using pretty much the same methods we used in 1895 (well, we use slightly better trucks), so our deadlines for "first editions" -- the papers that go out to the outlying areas -- tend to be obscenely early. Those deadlines often hit before the games even begin and almost always hit before games end. This can, as you might imagine, have a negative effect on the quality of those early columns.

Most sports columnist will file that early column and do something called a "write thru" for later editions -- that is, they will update the early column or, more likely, write a whole new one. Sports columnists are, without question, embarrassed by their early columns. I can remember that, for a while, the editors at the Star used to put my early column on the Internet, and I felt pretty much the way I imagine a famous actress feels when someone publishes grainy nude photographs they had posed for when times were tight.

That's not to say all early columns are complete wastes. One of my favorite moments as a journalist involved an early column. I think I've written this story already, but what the heck, I'll tell it again. We were at the World Series -- this was 1997 -- and one of the great untold moments at the World Series happens before the game when hundreds of journalists are out on the field doing what we call "trawling for an early." It's really quite an amazing American moment -- all of these trained journalists from many of the largest newspapers in our country walk from one dugout to the other and try to overhead something (anything) that might spark an idea (any idea) for a column they hope nobody ever reads.

A typical conversation on the field might go like this:

Reporter 1: "What are you writing early?"

Reporter 2: "Don't know yet. How about Kenny Rogers?"
Reporter 1: "Did him yesterday. Were you there for Pujols' interview?"
Reporter 2: "I was too far back. I couldn't hear what he said."
Reporter 1: "I heard that he took extra BP before the game."
Reporter 2: "Really?"

Reporter 1: "I don't know. I just heard someone talking about it."
Reporter 2: "I could write that. Who did you hear that from?"

Reporter 3: "Hey guys, what are you writing early?"
Reporter 1: "Weren't you the one who said Pujols took extra BP?"

Reporter 3: "No, I heard he almost got stung by a bee."
Reporter 2: "That works for me."

I was out on the field looking for an early column, and I had nothing. Absolutely nothing. Less-than-usual nothing. It was that Cleveland-Florida World Series, so nobody in my readership cared. The Marlins had a not-so-great-to-deal-with clubhouse (Sheffield, Bonilla, Kevin Brown) and the Indians had a not-so-great clubhouse (MannyBeingManny was on that team, though to be fair that '97 team did not have locker room terrors Albert Belle or Kenny Lofton). The weather was abysmal in Cleveland. Those games, you might recall, last longer than the J-Lo's career.


Anyway, I was walking around, and I was looking for anything at all -- I'm not going to be able to convey my general state of panic. I have this nightmare occasionally that it's two minutes to deadline, and I look at my computer screen and there's nothing on there, nothing, not a single word, and that's pretty much how it felt. Only then, I heard a voice.

"Joe! Come here, man."

Athletes rarely call you over by name, especially before a World Series. Especially athletes you don't know. I looked over, and it was Bip Roberts. He had played with the Royals earlier that year. As I recall, I had not written about Roberts during that time, and I'm not sure I had ever spoken with him beyond a brief hello. I still have no idea how he knew my name. But I soon found out -- the Bipper had something to say to all of Kansas City. He felt like the Royals organization had mistreated him. More to the point, he felt quite strongly that the people running Kansas City baseball were idiots. This may not seem like a particularly big or interesting story to you -- "minor player says last-place Royals don't know what they're doing: Film at 11" -- but as an early column on a World Series day, it was pretty much the equivalent to having the Pentagon Papers leaked to you.

I wrote the column. The next day, a couple of Royals called me to refute what Bip Roberts had said. So that was another early. Then he responded. Bip Roberts was the gift that kept on giving. Like that Geek Squad kid who fixed my computer with an era, Bip Roberts is in my will.

ANYWAY, during last year's World Series, I was typically stumped for an early (yes, we're still doing those earlies) and there was no Bip Roberts to save the day. So, I decided to come up with a chart that breaks down small and big baseball markets. Obviously, small and big market baseball talk has been hot in Kansas City going back, oh, about 55 years. It has been going on for so long, in fact, that frankly I think most people in KC are sick of even talking about small-market baseball. It's like that Mark Twain line about how everybody complains about the weather but nobody does anything about it. At some point, most people here realized that the game isn't going to change -- not fundamentally -- and it's really no fun complaining about how unfair it is for the Royals to try and compete against teams that can and do spend a lot more money.

(By the way, I think about 78 percent of the time you hear someone quote Mark Twain, it will be something he never said. Same thing for Abraham Lincoln, Satchel Paige and Yogi Berra. In fact if you ever come up with some semi-witty or wise saying, you are best off just attributing it to one of them and then everyone will be impressed. As Yogi Berra said: "I didn't say half the things I said." Or maybe that was Satchel Paige).

But one thing that does annoy people in Kansas City is when much larger cities start playing the "hey, we're a small market too" card. It's a bit like those politicians who pretend they grew up poor because their Daddy once lost a few bucks in the stock market and that meant giving up the country club membership for a year.

Do you remember that for a while, Philadelphia was singing the small-market blues? Philadelphia! We are talking about the fourth-largest city in America (well, fifth-largest according to the 2006 estimates). I realize that when people are talking about market size in baseball, they are really referring to revenue, and so teams that had lousy stadiums or a long-standing tradition of losing or owners that were plain cheap all claimed to be in small markets. It was always insane to see Kansas City -- a legitimately small market -- paired up with Houston, Detroit, Toronto and even the Mecca of small markets, Oakland.

This is not to say those cities don't have their own troubles -- of course they do. Oakland has a crummy stadium and is the third largest city in its own Metro area. But the Bay Area is an absolutely enormous market -- the Metro area is huge, the television market is huge, there are many, many Fortune 500 companies there. Bad baseball market, maybe. Small market, no.

So, I came up with a chart that ranks the markets 1-30. I realize, of course, that I have absolutely no statistical background to do this. Like I say, it was for an early column. I did it very simply: I took the most recent Nielsen rankings for television, Arbitron rankings for radio and metro populations. I ranked each city 1-30 in each of those (I could not find Nielsen or Arbitron rankings for Toronto so I simply used its enormous Metro area) and then I came up with an overall ranking that encompassed three. I'm sure there's an easier, more effective way to do this -- I'm sure it has been done better -- but the list I came up with definitely surprised me.

And since the only people who saw it live around Manhattan, Kan., I will include it here.

The Filthy Rich Markets

1. New York Yankees
Current record: 17-19
Last five years: Five division titles, one World Series appearance.
Comment: This one's obvious -- New York is top market in all three categories. ... I must say I still don't know how you can spend $200 million on a baseball team and have to start Chase Wright and Jeff Karstens.

2. New York Mets
Current record: 23-13
Last five years: One division title, two 90-loss seasons, three managers.
Comment: One of the problems of this survey is that it's difficult to separate teams that are in the same city. I suppose I could divide their numbers in half, but that probably wouldn't get it done. The Mets are clearly No. 2 in New York and they play in an awful stadium -- the second-worst in baseball (until Washington gets rid of RFK). But it's still New York. The Mets were a major underachiever until the last couple of years.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Current record: 23-15
Last five years: One division title, one wild-card appearance.
Comment: I'm not sure that it's common knowledge, but the Dodgers have led the National League in attendance each of the last three years and are leading again. Since coming West, the Dodgers have led the league in attendance 26 times -- though there was a stretch from 1992-2003 when they never led the league and once finished as low as seventh.

4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Current record: 21-17
Last five years: Three division titles, one World Series championship
Comment: When the Angels were struggling, there were people who had the gall to include them among small markets -- hiding behind some sort of "Well, it's not REALLY Los Angeles." Whatever. The Angels still draw from the second-largest metro in America. ... I had this thought: "Will Vladimir Guerrero go to the Hall of Fame?" I know he's been a great, great player, but sometimes when you look at a player's statistics you are surprised by how little they have built up. Mike Mussina, for instance, always surprises me. I always figure he must have 3,000 strikeouts and is approaching 300 victories -- he's been a very good pitcher for a long, long time. He doesn't -- he has about 2,500 Ks and 240 wins.

Anyway, Guerrero is the opposite. He's even better than you remember. He will be 31 all season, and he already has 347 homers. He's a .325 lifetime hitter. His top three comps through age 30 are Willie Mays, Duke Snider and Frank Robinson. ... I was thinking that if he can play at a high level for another 10 years -- 35 to 40 homers per year level -- he may actually have a shot to break Aaron's/Bonds' home run record. I think for my next entry I might do the "If his career ended tomorrow, he would be a Hall of Famer" blog item -- and I'm thinking now Guerrero might be on it already.

5. Chicago Cubs
Current record: 17-18
Last five years: One division title, lots of angst.
Comment: Baseball's great underachiever -- and you almost wonder how the fans would handle it if the Cubs ever STOPPED being that. One of my best friends is a Cubs fan, and he complains all the time. But I think he likes complaining. ... It's one of my favorite obscure bits of trivia the Cubs team began the 20th Century as the "Chicago Orphans."

The Deluxe Apartment In The Sky Markets

6. Chicago White Sox
Current record: 18-16
Last five years: One World Series championship, one attack on a first-base coach.
Comment: Not much to say here except, WOW, this year's White Sox team cannot hit at all. I mean at all. I realize Jim Thome is hurt (and Scott Podsednik too, I guess), but I just watched three days of Royals-White Sox baseball, and it was like watching two teams try to bludgeon each other with wiffle ball bats.

7. Philadelphia Phillies
Current record: 17-20
Last five years: Sheer and utter mediocrity.
Comment: How about the last four years -- 85 wins, 88 wins, 86 wins and 86 wins. One thing I've seen through the years is that's it's very painful as a fan when your team is NOT QUITE good enough. It has been that way for the Chiefs in Kansas City, and it was that way for my Browns in Cleveland in the 1980s. So the question is: Is it more painful to be a Phillies fan, with those almost-but-not-quite seasons or a Royals fan with all the 100-loss seasons. ... I say Royals fan. And it's not that close. Actually, it was a stupid comparison.

8. Texas Rangers
Current record: 15-22
Last five years: No playoff appearances; haven't won the division since 1999.
Comment: I seem to recall the Rangers singing the small-market blues for a little while too. Please. Dallas has the fifth largest Metro area in America, and enormous media market numbers. I counted 11 Fortune 500 companies too. They could have afforded A-Rod.

9. San Francisco Giants
Current record: 19-18
Last five years: Two division titles, one World Series appearance, lots of Barry.
Comment: Yes, by now I was wondering where Boston was too. We're not there yet. ... It looks like in a couple of weeks I'm going to go on the Barry chase. And if you think trying to come up with a World Series early is tough, whew, imagine coming up with a Barry early every day. I mean, what HASN'T been said?

I will admit, though, feeling a certain unexpected feeling about Barry as we come closer to the record. Yes, I firmly believe he cheated with steroids. I firmly believe he knowingly and deliberately cheated. I firmly believe he knew exactly what he was doing -- he was actually pretty late to the steroids party -- and I don't buy it as an excuse that baseball didn't test back then. That's lame. To me that's like saying that cheating on a test is OK because the teacher was too clueless to catch you. It's wrong. Period. And everybody knew it.

BUT ... Barry's the greatest player I ever saw. Bar none. Not even close. As a young man, he was the greatest combination of power, speed and defense I ever saw. As an old man, he was probably the most feared slugger the game has ever known -- I think more feared than Ruth. I love baseball, of course, and it has been one of the great joys of my baseball life watching Barry Bonds play. I don't like that he cheated -- frankly, I preferred watching the svelte, power/speed Barry over the big-headed Barry who mashed balls over and over into the Bay. The steroid and human growth hormone stuff will sully his legacy and reputation, no doubt about it, and that's right. Like I say, he knew what he was doing. But I feel like, as Barry closes in on the record, that it should be celebrated. He should be celebrated. The game has never seen anyone like him. ... Maybe the feeling will pass.

And, by the way, I don't think there's any doubt that the Commissioner should be there when he breaks the record. It's his game. It's the most hallowed record in his game. And it happened on his watch. I've read those who say it would be hypocritical for Bud to be there. I think it would be hypocritical for him NOT to be there.

10. Oakland Athletics
Current record: 19-17
Last five years: Three division titles and created lots of Moneyball angst in the game.
Comment: OK, it's probably silly to have the A's this high ... we all know the A's deal with all of the small-market blues (no money, cheap ownership, can't sign own players, etc). But this is where the numbers puts Oakland (in large part because of the size and power of the overall Bay area). Anyway, it might be good for people to see Oakland up here with the big dogs; it can be very easy to forget with all the money stuff and the lousy stadium and the cheap owners that the Bay area is a massive market with a lot of power brokers.

The comfortably well-off markets

11. Houston Astros
Current record: 18-19
Last five years: Two playoff appearances, one World Series, lots of George Bush appearances.
Comment: It always amazes me -- always -- just how big Houston is. Houston is the seventh largest metropolitan area in America. Houston has 20 -- TWENTY -- Fortune 500 companies. Houston has bigger Arbitron numbers than Boston, Philadelphia and Miami. Houston also has a relatively new stadium and an owner who also owns 18 million shares of Wal-Mart stock and is one of the 400 richest people in America. If you EVER hear someone calling Houston a small-market again, smack them with a cowboy hat or something.

12. Toronto Blue Jays
Current record: 15-22
Last five years: Zilcho.
Comment: Not exactly sure where to put the Blue Jays because of the Canadian money situation and also because the city is obviously not listed in the American Aribtron and Nielsen numbers. But Toronto does have more than 5 million people in the metro area, and so this seems like a pretty good place to put the Jays. ... I have to say that at some point, this J.P. Ricciardi experiment has to end, right? The guy has reinvented himself like 10 times since he became GM in 2001. He's a Moneyball guy! He's a scout! He's a Scrooge! He's a money-spending wild man! He's a guy who rips teams that outbid him! All the way, his teams don't change much -- they just keep on keeping on keeping being mediocre.

13. Washington
Current record: 12-25
Last two years: The Nationals were a .500 team their first year.
Comment: So, which team is worse? The Nationals? The Royals? I chatted with a couple of people in and around the game, and the consensus is that the Nationals are much worse. The Royals have some young players -- DeJesus, Teahen, Gordon, Butler, Shealy (maybe), Hochevar -- who may have bright futures. The Nationals? Not so much. Zimmerman, maybe. And then ... Ryan Church? Also, there is a lot more respect around the game all of a sudden for Gil Meche has a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter. The Nationals need a lot of out Shaun Hill. By the way, both teams are bad. As one friend says: "Distinctions at this level are a waste of time."

14. Boston
Current record: 25-11
Last five years: Three playoff appearances, one World Series championship, one $100 million Japanese pitcher, lots of famous fans.
Comment: FINALLY, the Red Sox appear. Of course this number is low because it does not take into account the Red Sox fever throughout New England. But dealing strictly with Boston: It has the 14th largest metro area in baseball and ranks 15th in Arbitrons, 8th in televisions. Everyone always throws Boston into the big market discussions, but the truth is that while it's a big revenue team with an amazing reach, the market itself is not there with the New Yorks, LAs and Chicagos.

15. Atlanta
Current record: 24-13
Last five years: Four division titles.
Comment: Has anyone been able to really describe Bobby Cox’s genius. I mean, here is the most successful coach/manager in all of sports. He was nothing special his first run with the Braves (though he did move Dale Murphy to center), but then he went to Toronto where the Blue Jays were horrendous. In two years he had them playing terrific baseball, and in his fourth year they won 99 games.

He went back to Atlanta as a GM, did nothing in that role, made himself manager (enter John Schuerholz) and in Cox's first full year, the Braves win 94 games and go to the World Series. In Cox's second year they go BACK to the World Series. The Braves win 14 straight division titles. They reach five World Series and win one. Now, they're back in first place. And really, does anyone think Bobby Cox is all that smart? All that great a motivator? All that brilliant a strategist? Have there been any "Bobby Cox's 10 Ways to Make Your Company a Winner" books that you have for every other genius coach like Bill Belichick, Pat Riley, Rick Pitino and so on? Maybe that could be my next book.

The upwardly mobile markets

16. Detroit Tigers
Current record: 23-13
Last five years: Lots of obscenely bad baseball and then, suddenly, a World Series.
Comment: Detroit was definitely one of the big markets acting poor while the losses piled up. Detroit has a bigger metro area than Boston or the Bay Area. Now that the Tigers are good again, everyone remembers. ... What would be the distinctive quality of Detroit sports fans? Everyone knows that Philadelphia fans booed Santa, and New York fans are famously loud, and invented the Bronx cheer, and Boston fans talk like the Kennedys and have great fan sites, and Cleveland fans brave intense cold and bark at football players, and New Orleans fans wear bags over their heads, and Los Angeles fans show up late for games, and St. Louis fans take great pride in being the best fans in all of baseball (or so I'm told), and Chicago fans self-loathe (and think Ditka can beat God in golf), and Cincinnati fans appreciate hustlers and enjoy their fireworks on Labor Day instead of the fourth of July (don't ask). But what about Detroit fans? I guess they are most famous for turning over cars after championships, but I don't think that's all that fair. I think Detroit fans are pretty savvy and sarcastic, but I'm not sure they have a fully formed rep. I should ask Ernie Harwell.

17. Florida Marlins
Current record: 16-21
Last five years: One World Series championship.
Comment: Now, make no mistake -- I'm not discussing the viability of any of these markets. These rankings are based entirely on numbers: People, radios, television. But it is true that when you hear people discuss the Florida Marlins, they make it sound like the Miami area is slightly smaller than Henderson, NC. We are talking about the sixth-largest metro area here. I don't know if Major League Baseball can or will ever work here, but when you talk about the things that matter -- money, passion, people, multi-cultural feel, etc. -- this still seems like an amazing market if anyone can ever figure out how to tap in.

18. Seattle Mariners
Current record: 17-16
Last five years: Bubkes. Last won the Division in 2001 -- won 116 games that year.
Comment: Seattle has had an amazing run, first as a tiny market that couldn't compete, then as a massive market that was expected to dominate baseball and finally (after A-Rod, Griffey and Unit had to go) as a small market again. Perceptions, perceptions. Meanwhile, the market stayed exactly the same, right about 18th in baseball.

19. Arizona Diamondbacks
Current record: 20-19
Last five years: One playoff appearance. Won the World Series in 2001.
Comment: Every time I go to Phoenix -- and I go at least once a year for spring training -- there are 29 new shopping malls on my ride from the airport to the hotel. Exactly 29 new shopping malls every time -- even if I've only been away for two weeks. It's amazing. ... I have a lot of friends who either live in Phoenix or would like to, and I always ask them the same question: How do you survive 120 degree heat. I guess we all have our own fears and our own weather dislikes -- it wouldn't faze me to live in a place where it snows 20 feet every year or whatever. I guess that's because I grew up in Cleveland. I'm not saying I'm moving to Saskatchewan or whatever; I'm saying that doesn't bewilder me. But 120 degree heat does. They always say the same thing: It's not so bad. And it's a dry heat. Whatever.

20. Minnesota Twins
Current record: 18-19
Last five years: Four playoff appearances.
Comment: OK, yeah, this one shocked me. Doesn't everyone consider Minnesota one of the two or three smallest markets out there? Nope, Minnesota ranks 19th in the Nielsens, 19th in the Arbitrons and 19th in metro area (they're 20th overall because of Toronto). Plus, Minnesota is a haven for companies -- there are as many Fortune 500 companies in Greater Minneapolis as Philadelphia. But you add one cheap owner, one crummy dome and a few losses and suddenly there's talk about contraction. Crazy.

The small markets

21. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Current record: 15-22
Last five years: Nothing good to talk about here.
Comment: The football field they have in Honolulu -- the place where they play the Pro Bowl -- is covered with artificial turf. This has always driven me absolutely nuts. This tropical paradise should not have artificial turf. It just shouldn't. It's an absolute crime against sports humanity. ... It bothers me even more than they play indoor baseball in Tampa.

22. St. Louis Cardinals
Current record: 15-20
Last five years: Four playoffs appearances, two World Series appearances, one WS title.
Comment: I'm not sure if I mentioned this here before, but I was doing some research about 1947 -- and I came across a few articles that year discussing the potential of moving the Cardinals to Chicago. I had never heard about that before, and I don't think the talk went very far. But I found that fascinating, especially because one of my best friends, a huge Cardinals fan, HATES the Cubs with a passion people usually reserve for terrorists and that Jim Belushi show. ... St. Louis, the city, is really a tiny town. But the metro area is almost three million. And there are Cardinals fans everywhere; there are, I believe, 1.23 million Cardinals blogs on the Internet.

23. San Diego Padres
Current record: 20-18
Last five years: Two playoff appearances
Comment: Why doesn't everyone live in San Diego? I am not a sociologist, and I cannot explain why people settle where they settle. But why is it that San Diego -- where it is 70 degrees and sunny every day (weatherman in San Diego -- easy job) -- has fewer people than, say, Minneapolis or Phoenix? I'm sure it has something to do with land availability or property values or the San Diego Chicken or something. It's like I've always wondered: Why doesn't Pepperdine have the National Champion in every single sport. Have you SEEN the Pepperdine campus? It makes Pebble Beach look like a dog track. I don't understand why a coach couldn't fly out the best players in the country, wave his or her arm and just say: "OK, see this campus. Yeah. That's it. That's our whole recruiting pitch."

24. Pittsburgh Pirates
Current record: 16-20
Last five years: Bad. Very, very bad.
Comment: Wow, suddenly you look at the Pirates ... I like this team. Ian Snell is amazing -- remember when my favorite unnamed scout went on and on about Snell? He's the real deal. Tom Gorzelanny's looking awfully good. And what about this Matt Capps character? Zack Duke. The pitching looks really promising. I think they might be getting somewhere in Pittsburgh. ... Oh yeah, Pittsburgh is slightly larger as a market than I thought. I would have guessed the bottom five was Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Milwaukee. I would have missed the first two.

25. Baltimore Orioles
Current record: 18-20
Last five years: Lots of losses and three different managers
Comment: Ah, remember the good old days when Camden Yards was new and the Orioles spent money like it was Brewster's Millions II? Memories. Baltimore is a true small market, but Camden Yards is such a nice place, and that whole baseball experience is so good, that they are still pulling in serious revenue there. Of course, they're spending that revenue on Aubrey Huff and Steve Trachsel. But that's a different blog item.

The teeny weeny markets

26. Colorado Rockies
Current record: 16-22
Last five years: Pain. Suffering. Light air. Clint Hurdle.
Comment: There have always been great hitters' parks and great pitchers parks in baseball, of course. But there's something different about Coors Field. You get the feeling that it's not exactly baseball they play there -- it's like every other ballpark is a clay tennis court and in Colorado they're playing on grass. I'm not sure how you adjust to that as a fan -- to know that no matter what happens, you will never, ever have a starter with a sub-3.00 ERA, that it's not even possible, and also to know that if a Rockies guy hits .297 with 23 homers in Colorado that is, in fact, a crappy year. ... I do believe this, though: Someday, someone in Colorado is going to figure out how to make that park work for them -- they're going to figure out the right kind of pitcher for that light air and the right kind of hitter too. Then the Rockies will have the greatest homefield advantage in the game.

27. Cleveland Indians
Current record: 21-14
Last five years: Won 93 games and choked it away down the stretch in 2005.
Comment: I realize now that I have lived most of my life in three of the four smallest markets in baseball: Cleveland, Cincinnati, KC. I think that probably explains a lot about who I am, and why I am always taken aback when they give me my price total at the McDonald's drive-thru. Remember the old McDonald's commercials where they promised you could get a whole meal for a $1 and still get change? Actually, unless you're ancient you probably don't remember that. I still remember when the first number on the Price is Right car was always a 4. Always. ... My Cleveland accent comes out whenever I go back there. Most of the time, I would I have no accent -- that's what comes from living in Cleveland, Charlotte, Augusta, Ga., Cincinnati and Kansas City. But whenever I go to Cleveland, the voice comes out ... "Hey, look at the clouds in da skeeee-iiii."

28. Cincinnati Reds
Current record: 15-23
Last five years: The Reds were almost .500 one year.
Comment: I wish I had some Skyline Chili right now. A big fat three-way. I realize that these comments are now beginning to lose focus, but it's getting late and I would do just about anything legal for a Skyline Chili right now. I've tried to make Skyline -- you know it's a secret recipe -- and I have failed miserably. I wonder what a round-trip ticket to Cincinnati would cost.

29. Kansas City Royals
Current Record: 12-26
Last five years: Sigh.
Comment: Did anyone see the Simpsons' episode where Marge (I think) was looking through an old bookstore that had these old, outdated books? One of the books was "Royals: Champions Forever." I think that about says it all. There was a proud history here once. Once.

30. Milwaukee Brewers
Current record: 25-12(!)
Last five years: A .500 years in 2005 is the highlight.
Comment: Milwaukee is quite clearly the smallest market in baseball -- Kansas City actually ranks one place ahead of Milwaukee in all three categories. ... I love Milwaukee. I always have ... going back to Laverne and Shirley. The reason I love Milwaukee is that it is Cleveland. I don't mean it's "like" Cleveland. I mean it IS Cleveland. I mean if I dropped you out of a plane into the heart of Milwaukee and told you "You are in Cleveland" you would believe me. I think Milwaukee and Cleveland are probably the two most alike cities in America -- closer in type, certainly, than the Twin Cities in Minnesota or Tampa and St. Pete or San Jose/Oakland.

So there you go, the big and small markets in baseball. To review:

Last five years:

Filthy Rich Teams: 12 playoff appearances, 1 World Championship.
Deluxe Apartment in the Sky Teams: 6 playoff appearances, 1 World Championship.
Comfortably Well-Off Teams: 9 playoff appearances, 1 World Championship
Upwardly Mobile Teams: 7 playoff appearances, 1 World Championship
Small Market Teams: 6 playoff appearances, 1 World Championship.
Teeny-Weeny Market Teams: 0 playoff appearances, 0 World Championships.

Final lesson: It's tough to be a teeny-weeny market.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great article, Mr. Posnanski. I only wish to point out that the best way to measure market size is not necessarily by metro population, Arbitron ratings or size of TV market, but by each team's local TV revenue. By that measure, the Red Sox are probably #2 or #3 behind the Yankees and Mets or Dodgers. In other words, the Red Sox can afford all those players because (if I am not mistaken) they get unbelievable TV ratings for their games, which means the radio/TV flagships can charge a lot for advertising, which means that they'll pay the team a lot of money for the rights to broadcast the game.

I'm guessing there's a general correlation between market size and the team's broadcast revenue, but it's hardly exact.

kgb said...

You can fly to Columbus on Skybus for 10 dollars each way. Although the idea of paying only 10 dollars for a flight scares me.

That puts you close to some Skyline Chili.

Anonymous said...

You know, you could make the argument that Toronto should be a *lot* higher on this list, given that they've got a potential television audience of 30 *million* people - it's the only Major League Baseball team in Canada.

I know it's hard to remember now, given their recent years of mediocrity, but 15 years ago, the Blue Jays were what the Yankees are now - a perennial powerhouse team with the highest payroll in baseball, and the place where aging superstars (Winfield, Morris, Stewart, Molitor) went to win a World Series.

Jon Liepmann said...

Joe, excellent. But I have to agree with the anonymous comment. It feels like the Mets and Yankees have been able to spend head and shoulders above everyone else after they each got their own cable station. By the way, how about this for an idea for a Barry early, look at the percentage of broken records that have controversy surrounding them. Off the top of my head is Maris' trouble with the fans when he broke Ruth's record, Pete Rose, Sosa and McGwire, Bonds (73 and 756) and contrast them with guys like Aaron and Ripken breaking their records and the fanfare that went with it. Just thought it was interesting that a lot of the broken records that I can think of have controversy attached to them, but maybe that's why I remember them.

Anonymous said...

i kind of can't believe how good this blog is. neyer, then simmons, then deadspin, now this.

Tom said...

Another good post!

Just wondering if you'd seen the Mugshot Purgatory post on your Kansas City Royals.

Enjoy.

-t

Anonymous said...

Thanks Joe. I have been using the Price-Is-Right car figure as a way to date myself for years now (and most people just stare at me blankly). You are right, for YEARS (it seems) the price always started with a "4" no matter what type of car. Then, one day I turned on the show and everything was starting with an "8" or a "9."

Very depressing....

Anonymous said...

Today I had lunch with Jim Pankovits at the Whataburger in Austin by Barton Springs Rd. I had a Whataburger "my way" with six patties of meat. I also engulfed four large orders of french fries, two chocolate shakes, and three refills of the largest drink you can buy. I feel good! Now it's time for me to put on my Jetson's t-shirt and go run around Town Lake in 90 plus degree heat until I barf. That's how I stay at my svelte 378 lbs.

Anonymous said...

a) I have to admit, I'm not angry or disappointed or whatever I'm *supposed* to be about Barry Bonds. Maybe if he was the only guy, EVER, in the history of MLB to use steroids I'd understand the "big fat cheater" thing, but come on. Seriously - how many pitchers do you think he hit off of in the day who were using as well? And since the owners didn't really care and the players were all using to win games and make some $$ for themselves ... yeah, I have no ire here. Screw it, I'd go so far to call myself a Bonds fan.

b) I feel like other people said this better but I think Boston ends up under-rated because it's hard to quantify its national draw. I live in medium size city on the west coast (half a mil population if you add in the suburbs) with only one team in the big three leagues - nearest MLB is 3 hours north: I see Red Sox hats and jackets as often I see hats for the norther and closer one. I suppose the Yankees have the same happening with national draw.

Ryan said...

Local TV Revenue figures can be misleading also, because some companies that own the baseball teams also own the cable companies that pay for the rights. (Wrigley with the Cubs and WGN, the Yankees and YES for example.) Arguably, what the cable companies actually pay for the rights might are lower than they should be, because the same company owns both entities.

I agree with you on Selig. He's the idiot who looked the other way when everyone in baseball was doing steroids. He should stand next to Bonds, give a big used car salesman smile, and let himself be photographed with the surly slugger. History then can then put an asterisk next to both of their names.

Anonymous said...

Joe,

If you ever spend a summer in Tampa Bay, dealing with the heat, humidity (trust me, 8 o' clock at night isn't all that much better than 3 in the afternoon for the heat and stickiness), and frequent rainstorms at night that couple wipe out entire series at times, you'll understand better why baseball is played indoors here. An open-air stadium in Central Florida for a sport that can't be played in poor weather is a terrible idea.

Anonymous said...

Pepperdine is in Malibu, not San Diego.

Greg Spira said...

One of the most important things to consider when ranking markets is the wealth of each market, Miami, for example, is the poorest market in baseball on a per capita basis.

As far as Bonds goes.. yes, he almost certainly used steroids, and clearly, he is not exactly a warm, fuzzy individual. But the reality is that Hank Aaron was almost certainly taking illegal performance enhancing drugs when he broke Ruth's record. Willie Mays, the 2nd player in major league history to hit 600 home runs, was not only taking illegal performance enhancing drugs but was dealing them as well. Hall of Fame pitcher Pud Galvin bragged about using steroids to improve his performance. Baseball has an extraordinarily long history of accepting cheating - including cheating by way of the use of drugs - as a part of the game. To indict Bonds for being part of that tradition while pretending that his predecessors embraced only pure competition requires an almost unfathomable amount of hypocrisy.

MikeKatzif said...

Hey Joe, as a KC-native (though now living in DC) I have been a long-time reader of your work at the Star. I recently started reading your book, after my father picked it up at a book reading at the JCC. Amazing stuff... you are easily my favourite sports writer working today.

Anyway, love the blog and had to laugh at the sentiment about the Royals in this post. I saw that episode of the Simpsons and wrote about it on my own blog:

http://www.hellocomein.com/hellowords/?p=45

At the time, I had to laugh thinking that someone writing for the show was familiar with the Royals' constant plight and even more constant use of nostalgia to fill the seats. It makes me sad to see what they've become.

Living in DC now, I have a hard time going to a terrible park like RFK to see a game. I tell my friends that I only have room in my heart for one horrible team, and the Nats are just not worth much attention. But like you said, when you're talking about the two worst teams in baseball, making distinctions on who is worse is pointless.

Anyway, keep up the great writing and indepth discussion about all things baseball.. Its a joy to catch every time you post.

Ryan said...

A) What kind of "performance enhancing" drugs would you claim Aaron took, Greg?

B) If you claim speed, that's hardly in the same league as anabolic steroids. Speed doesn't make you faster or stronger. It's the equivalent of drinking a lot of caffeine.

Anonymous said...

Great post, joe, and here's wishing evvery city had a columnist as thoughtful as you. You are spot on with Pepperdine -- although I have no idea how anyone who goes to school there gets to class odten enough to graduate. As for Bobby Cox, I think you would get a lot of people discussing the "Big 3" but I think that would be a mistake. I see three things Cox seems to do as well as or better than anyone. First, and most important I suspect, is his uncanny ability to keep starters healthy and productive. The health record of his starting pitchers is remarkable. Only weaver, in his day, was able to do this so consistently over long periods. Second is his ability to always cobble together an effective bullpen, even from scrap parts. Third, , I think, is that Cox is, in the modern era, by far the greatest proponent of platooning, which is a vastly underutilized strategy in the 21st century. Teams will keep a 12th pitcher to get the platoon advantage for 100 or less batters/year, but won;t platoon in LF, gaining the platoon advantage 200-300 times AND providing a pinch hitter when necessary.

Scott Bergquist said...

Joe,
First, great stuff as usual. You do an excellent job.

The days of "scrambling" for an "early" idea are over, in my humble opinion. Howzzat??!

Because readers like to read about themselves. No matter what happens with the World Series, you can run piece after piece after piece about who is watching, why they are, who created blogs, phony blogs by the supposed players themselves (made up by YOU, the reader!) ...the list is long, undistinguished, but ceaselessly mineable. In fact, if the larder gets close to empty, a simple newscolumn leading off with "A fairly knowledgeable baseball fan, Joe Plutarski, sent me an e-mail (topdog@wiseguy.com), and explained why this World Series is the most interesting he's ever watched..." etc.

Spindletop was a minor event compared to the volume of wannabes writing to you in response to such a "lead-in", hoping for a "notice".

Look at all the work by MLB.com puts into All-Star voting. It's all because people are MOST INTERESTED not in the AS game itself, but how THEY (the fan, and by extension, all the fans) interact and affect MLB.

Anonymous said...

My car broke down in Henderson, NC once. Awful experience. I would have rather had it break down in Miami. As for being painfully mediocre like the Phillies, it's a worse feeling when you add to it the fact that Phils fans are just critical, angry, and unable to be pleased. You've heard the Mike Schmidt quote about "thrill of victory, agony of reading about it." If we win a title, we'll criticize the team the next day for not winning by enough points/runs/goals/TDs the next day. "Really, we probably should hit that 3rd and 2, would have made for an easier victory." So when you have a team that continually disappoints combined with a fan base that is easily frustrated and critical, you have the depressing state of Philly sports.