Hall of Fame predictions ... NL Edition

First update: 11 a.m. Monday morning.

I got the best email the other day. Last Sunday, I wrote what has sadly become an annual tradition: "The 'I Can't Believe The Royals Season Is Already Over And It's Only May' Column." If there is one thing you have to appreciate about the Royals -- they don't tease the fans with false hope.

Royals' April records
2007: 8-18
2006: 5-17
2005: 6-18
2004: 7-14
2003: 16-7*
*LOOK! HOPE! OK, check out the corresponding May record.

Royals' May records
2007: 9-10
2006: 8-21
2005: 8-19
2004: 10-17
2003: 10-19

Anyway, I wrote the column for Sunday -- and the Royals promptly went on by far their best stretch of the season. They won five of six games, including three of four from Oakland (that A's bullpen without Huston Street is horrendous). This may not sound like all that much if you live in, well, anywhere but Washington -- the Royals, after all, still have the worst record in the American League -- but here in KC that sort of winning stretch represents something of a minor miracle.

The nice little stretch inspired someone to write me an email that basically said this:
"Yeah, there you go: Every time you write something negative about Kansas City sports, the team goes out and shows you! What do you have to say now, smart guy? The Royals are on a roll, and maybe you should just quit your job. Your time has past. I know you won't have the guts or decency to quit but you're going to have to eat your words!"

I can't even begin to tell you how good that made me feel. An "I told you so" from a Royals fan. It is inspiring to know there is someone out there -- maybe it's only one person, but still -- who has real hope that the Royals are going to win this year. This is why I love sports. No amount of losing can break the real sports fan. (UPDATE: I just got a second email from a Royals fan in New York featuring the same sentiment. This is great!).

UPDATE: A brilliant reader named Keith Harvey just sent me the official Royals Renovations page from MLB.com. The page shows plans for how the Royals intend to improve Kauffman Stadium, including this fun little update of things they intend to have finished by Opening Day 2008:

Completed areas:
New Bullpens
Expanded dugout seating
Expanded crown seating
Expanded vomitories to field level concourse

Yeah, you read that right. Expanded vomitories. You know. For when David Riske pitches.

To be fair, "vomitory" is technically the correct word -- a vomitory is an architectural term according to dictionary.com and it refers to "an opening, as in a stadium or theater, permitting large numbers of people to enter or leave." However, since most people think a vomitorium was a room where the ancient Romans used to vomit (that's what I thought), the Royals may want to use a different word, you know, one that doesn't use the root "vomit." I don't know: How about "Expanded openings to permit large numbers of people to leave."

Actually, that wouldn't be a lot better, would it?

OK, on to the National League and Hall of Fame predictions. I'm sure you remember the rules, but frankly I've forgotten them already so I looked them up in the American League version.

The qualifications:
1. The player needs to be 30 or older (except in those cases where I think someone younger than 30 has a particularly interesting or compelling case).
2. Steroids and other performance enhancing drugs are not considered.
3. I'm trying to predict who WILL go into the Hall of Fame rather than who SHOULD go into the Hall of fame. Example: I think Alan Trammell should go into the Hall of Fame. I don't think he will.
4. I will update the list with reader suggestions because I will obviously forget some people -- I overlooked several in the American League list.

Players are divided into four categories:
Sure thing: This is a player who, if his career ended tomorrow, would (in my opinion) be elected into the Hall.
Interesting: Player in the Hall of Fame picture.
Surprising: A player who has put up numbers that may surprise you. One of my best friends in high school, Robert Sadoff, used to try and predict surprising Hall of Famers for his baseball card collection -- he was sort of the Warren Buffett of baseball cards. He was the first person I ever knew to talk about Bert Blyleven as a Hall of Famer (of course, there are many people who STILL don't see that), and I remember he was all over Rich Dotson, who had 70 victories before he was 26 years old. He bought up all those 1981 Dotson rookie cards ... that one kind of flopped on him. But that's what we're talking about here.
Worth a mention: Players who inspire some sort of long-winded thought from me.

New York Mets

Sure thing: Tom Glavine. I became a columnist in Augusta, Ga. in the summer of 1991, just when the Braves started to get good. I would drive the two or so hours to Atlanta at least three times a month to write about them. That was my first Major League experience as a writer, and to be honest it was a mixed experience. At least at the beginning.

I remember the first or second time I went to a game, I was sitting in the front row of an absolutely empty Fulton County Stadium press box. I mean, there couldn't have been more than 10 people in the whole box. The Braves had not caught on yet. The crowd was light too.

Anyway, I was sitting there watching the game, keeping score, doing baseball writer things (I hoped) -- nobody was sitting within 10 chairs of me -- and I must admit that I was feeling good about myself. Here I was, 24 years old, a sportswriter, Major League Baseball, a real pennant ace, oh man if only my Dad could see me now.

That's when security guard came up to me.
He said: "Young man, I'm afraid you're going to have to move."

I looked up at him with what I'm sure was a stunned and wounded look. I'm very easily embarrassed. I am the kind of person who would never sit in someone else's seat at the stadium, for instance. Sometimes my Dad would want us to move down at Municipal Stadium -- I mean, there were 80,000 seats and like 1,800 people in the stands -- and I would always say no because I was scared to death of sitting in someone's chair.

I looked at that security guard and I stuttered something like: "Um, I have a credential, I'm really a reporter, really. I don't think anyone's sitting here, I mean, nobody seemed to be sitting here, and ... and ... I really am a reporter, really, and I'm actually writing something from here, it's OK, they told me I could come to the game, and I really am a reporter."

The security guard (who, bless his heart, had this embarrassed look on his face) said gently: "Well, no, you just have to move back one row. There are lots of seats back there. You can't sit in the front row unless you're a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America."

Now I was really confused. Baseball Writers Association? What was that? I had a credential that seemed to allow me to sit there (I still have it). Nobody else was around. I was entirely baffled. And then I had an odd thought: Maybe I was already a Baseball Writers Association member and didn't know it. I had signed up for several writers associations -- I was a member of the golf writers association. I was a member of the Minor League Baseball Writers Association. Maybe this was the same thing. So I said something naive like, "I don't know if I'm a member or not."

At which point -- yes, here comes the big finish -- a sportswriter emerged from behind the security guard. I'm not going to name him because -- hell, I should name him. But I won't. He's still around. Anyway, he held his BBWAA card in his palm and put it up to my face -- the way detectives in movies do with their badges when they bust into a room. He shouted: "You need one of THESE to sit in the front row. One of THESE! Gotta have one of THESE!"

Apparently, I needed one of THOSE. That explained it. I moved back to the second row. I looked down at the two dozen empty seats in the front row. I felt smaller than Rickey Henderson's strike zone (that joke is brought to you by my hero, Jim Murray, who said Henderson's strike zone was smaller than Hitler's heart). I tried to follow the game, but I was humiliated. I silently promised myself that if I should ever become a reasonably successful sportswriter, I wouldn't be a dick.

After the game, as I walked through the clubhouse still flushed and embarrassed from the exchange. Tom Glavine was getting dressed. I figured at that point my day couldn't get much worse, and so I asked him if he had a minute, fully expecting the big blowoff. But as most of you know, Glavine is not that kind of guy. He talked to me for a half hour about all sorts of things, and I will always feel indebted to him for that. In some ways, my career started there. All sportswriters have a story about some athlete or manager who was nice to them at the beginning -- Bill James talks a lot about how Freddie Patek was the guy for him.

OK, now that that's off my chest: As a Hall of Famer, Glavine will win his 300th game in the next couple of months, which locks him up first ballot. I think he's actually been a first-ballot guy for three or four years. His World Series pitching (4-3, 2.47 ERA, 1-hitter to finish off Cleveland in 1995) helps his case too. Do you think Glavine's 1-hitter is remembered with the Larsen's perfect game, Morris' 10-inning shutout, Gibson's Game 7 and so on? I don't think so. And it should be. That Cleveland lineup was a murderer's row (probably more than figuratively). That lineup had Kenny Lofton, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Eddie Murray, Carlos Baerga (who was still a terrific hitter). Glavine threw eight innings and the only hit he allowed was to ... hey that's a good trivia question. We'll give you the answer next half inning. AFLAC. Ask about it at work.

Three hundred game winners with fewer than 3,000 strikeouts (since 1900):
1. Pete Alexander, 2,198
2. Eddie Plank, 2,246
3. Lefty Grove, 2,266
4. Early Wynn, 2,334
5. Christy Mathewson, 2,502
6. Tom Glavine, 2,512*
7. Warren Spahn, 2,583
* Glavine is still five victories short.

Sure thing: Pedro Martinez. In the American League version, I wrote a little bit about the Koufax Factor ... I wonder just how dominant somehow has to be over a short period of time to become an automatic Hall of Famer. Koufax was absolutely amazing for four years, and he's in the Hall of Fame because of it. Pedro was absolutely amazing for seven years.

So let's split the difference and go with five years. Who are the pitchers with the best five-year spans in baseball history? I'll take a stab at it:

(Editor's note: This might be a good time to ask the simple question: What the heck am I doing? Why am I sitting here looking for the best five-year spans in baseball history for a free blog? I'll have to get back to you on that one. Maybe it's because you are going to buy another copy of the book).

1. Pedro Martinez (1997-01).
Stats: 84-28, 2.18 ERA, 1022 IP, 718 hits, 1316 K, 228 walks.
Comment: He has the fewest innings and second-fewest victories among the Top 10, but he makes up for it with sheer dominance. He's the best I ever saw. In an era where ever single advantage was given to hitters -- tiny strike zone, smaller parks, weight training, better bats, you name it -- he was just about untouchable.

2. Lefty Grove (1928-32)
Stats: 128-33, 2.56 ERA, 1409 IP, 1297 hits, 925 Ks, 346 walks.
Comment: He was pitching in a high-scoring league and in a hitters' park, and he was fabulous, highlighted by his legendary 1931 season -- 31-4, 2.06 ERA, he won pitching's Triple Crown for the second straight year.

3. Greg Maddux (1994-98)
Stats: 87-32, 2.10 ERA, 1140 IP, 923 hits, 890 Ks, 147 walks.
Comment: My favorite ever great pitcher. He's the only guy I used to set the VCR to watch. It's funny I can remember arguing with a friend about how much fun it was to watch Maddux pitch in his prime -- he literally though Maddux was the most boring pitcher in baseball. I thought he was nuts, but you know what? Most people probably would agree with him.

4. Randy Johnson (1998-02)
Stats: 100-38, 2.63 ERA, 1274 IP, 1746 strikeouts, 374 walks.
Comment: There was actually a time when people wondered if Unit had enough time to put up legitimate career Hall of Fame numbers. When this streak began he was already 34, and he only had 124 career victories. But these five years -- which include four Cy Young Awards -- clinched his Hall of Fame election no matter what else happened.

5. Walter Johnson (1910-1914)
Stats: 147-67, 1.50 ERA, 1779 IP, 1332 hits, 1291 Ks, 334 walks.
Comment: You know what's amazing about Johnson's ridiculously good five years -- he gave up a TON of unearned runs. I realize it was a different game back then -- about a quarter of all runs scored were unearned then. Still, look:

Walter Johnson's unearned runs:
1910: 36
1911: 51(!)
1912: 32
1913: 12
1914: 17

My next blog might be an inside look at the unearned run. It's interesting how much it has changed. Johnson gave up almost 500 of them in his career. That's not, actually, a number that is out of line with what was happening during his time. But it might make you look at his remarkable 2.17 career ERA a bit differently.

6. Hal Newhouser (1944-48)
Stats: 118-56, 2.35 ERA, 1475 IP, 1235 H, 993 Ks, 519 walks.
Comment: A heart condition kept him out of World War II, and he won back-to-back MVP awards in '44 and '45 while the stars were away. Because of that, nobody seems exactly sure how to rank him ... though he easily could have won his THIRD straight MVP award in 1946 after everyone had returned (26-9, 1.94 ERA).

7. Pete Alexander (1915-20 ... includes time missed for World War I)
Stats: 139-61, 1.64 ERA, 1777 IP, 1446 H, 917 Ks, 280 walks.
Comment: Alexander had amazing control on the mound and no control of his life. I think that's weird. There are a lot of famous alcoholics in baseball, but I wonder how many of them were control pitchers. ... He gave up 113 unearned runs over those years.

8. Roger Clemens (1988-92)
Stats: 92-50, 2.62 ERA, 1263 IP, 1047 H, 1179 Ks, 336 walks.
Comment: Incredibly this stretch does not include Clemens MVP 1986 season (24-4, 2.48) or what was probably the best year of his career(1997 -- 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 226 ERA+).

9. Carl Hubbell (1932-36)
Stats: 111-53, 2.40 ERA, 1513 IP, 1381 H, 684 K, 230 walks.
Comment: I wrote a little story about Carl Hubbell and how he has been forgotten by his "hometown" of Carthage, MO (his family moved to Oklahoma when he was about 3). I got a very nice email from Hubbell's son, who said his father once came to Carthage and joked about how everything had changed.

10. Sandy Koufax (1962-66)
Stats: 111-34, 1.95 ERA, 1377 IP, 959 H, 1444 K, 316 walks.
Comment: I realize my system for ranking the best five-year peaks ever is badly flawed -- to be brutally honest with you, Koufax doesn't even rank 10th on the list. He's behind, among others, Kevin Brown (1996-00), Bob Feller (1939-47 including the war), Cy Young (1901-05). So I apologize for that. I've got to have Koufax on the list.

Final thought on this: All 10 of these pitchers are in the Hall of Fame or will be soon. A couple -- Koufax and Newhouser -- are in the Hall almost entirely because of their great five year spans. I believe Pedro, in context, was the best of them all. If he doesn't throw another pitch he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I cannot imagine who in his right mind would vote against him.

Update: I never did answer that AFLAC Trivia question. AFLAC. Ask about it at work. The player who got the one hit off of Tom Glavine in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series was none other than ... my old friend Tony Pena.

Interesting: Billy Wagner. I don't know that people THINK about Wagner as a Hall of Famer. But I included a chart in the AL version that showed the Top ERAs over the last 50 years (minimum 500 innings) and Billy Wagner was No. 1 on it. Here's another chart:

Most strikeouts per 9 ip (min. 500 ip)
1. Billy Wagner, 11.95
2. Armando Benitez, 10.96
3. Royals' closer Octavio Dotel (yikes!), 10.81
4. Randy Johnson, 10.77
5. Ugueth Urbina, 10.51

Almost a full strikeout per nine better than anyone. Ever. He hasn't helped himself in the postseason though (1-1, 3 saves, 18 hits in 10.3 innings, 8.71 ERA).

Interesting: Carlos Delgado. You know that Delgado has 400 homers but has only made the All-Star team twice? I just thought that was odd ... Delgado hasn't turned 35 yet, so he certainly is in good position to put up the Hall of Fame numbers. He's 90 homers short of 500. He could move way up the charts in RBIs and so on. But I don't sense much enthusiasm out there for his Hall of Fame case.

Interesting: Carlos Beltran. The best and most fun player I ever wrote about up close.

Barry Bonds through his first eight seasons:
.283, 222 homers, 801 runs, 679 RBIs, 280 SBs.

Bobby Bonds through his first eight seasons:
.273, 218 homers, 858 runs, 637 RBIs, 290 SBs.

Carlos Beltran through his first eight seasons:
.281, 202 homers, 820 runs, 761 RBIs, 226 SBs.

Worth a mention: Julio Franco. After the 1991 season, Franco was a very interesting Hall of Fame case. He had played middle infield positions, he was a .302 career hitter, he had more than 1,600 hits and he had just won his first batting crown. Nobody could have predicted then that he would play another SIXTEEN YEARS and would become the first 45-year-old man to hit .300 in the Major Leagues. ... That said, those spotty years in the middle of his career will prevent him from getting into the Hall. His 2,571 hits are not quite good enough and he did not have a great peak. Still, if I could wish anything for Franco it's for him to get enough hits here at the end to push his lifetime batting average up from .299 to .300. The odds are against him, but Julio DESERVES a .300 batting average.

Worth a mention: Moises Alou. The Alous have an astonishing knack for being ALMOST good enough to be in Hall of Fame consideration. It really is remarkable.

Felipe Alou: He has a lifetime .286 batting average, hit 200 homers, banged out more than 2,100 hits ... and falls just shy of being a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Matty Alou: Hit .307 for his career, won a batting title and got almost 1,800 hits despite not getting a full-time shot until he was 28 ... and falls shy of being a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Moises Alou: Has hit .301, has more than 2,000 hit and 300 homers, made six All-Star teams, was third in the MVP balloting twice ... and falls just shy of being serious a Hall of Fame candidate.

Surprising: Shawn Green. I'll tell you what's surprising ... the guy is only 34 years old. Doesn't it seem like Green has been around since the mid-30s? He's hitting the ball with the Mets again, and suddenly his Hall of Fame candidacy is back in play. He should pass 2,000 hits this year. ... Look at this Baseball Reference comps through age 33, you will see four Hall of Famers -- Reggie, Yaz, Winfield and Billy Williams. Shawn Green: Hall of Famer? It ain't impossible.

Atlanta Braves

Sure thing: John Smoltz. I guess there are some who think this is not yet decided, but we all saw the way Dennis Eckersley eased in. Smoltz was (and is) a much, much, much better starter than Eck. And I would say he was every bit as good a reliever too. And he's 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA in the postseason. I think he's got it locked up.

Interesting: Chipper Jones. I guess everything is perception. But while I'm stunned how far along Shawn Green is, I'm equally stunned by how much more work Chipper Jones has left to do. I'm really surprised he doesn't have 2,000 hits yet (he's almost there, 1990) or 400 homers (he has 369). I don't know why, but I expected more. He is a lifetime .305 hitter, though, and he's having a terrific year. But, I would say he still has some work to do.

Interesting: Andruw Jones. You know, he has almost as many homers at age 30 as Chipper at age 35 (348 to Chipper's 369). ... I've heard it from a lot of people in and around the game: They say Andruw Jones is the best defensive center fielder in baseball history. I'm not sure about that, but let's just say for a moment that it's true, that Andruw Jones is in fact the greatest defensive centerfielder ever. How much more does he have to do then to make the Hall of Fame? I would say the "acknowledged" best defensive players at every meaningful position on the field is already in the Hall of Fame:

First base: Nobody cares about first base defense. Otherwise, Keith Hernandez would get more consideration.
Second base: Bill Mazeroski. In the Hall of Fame. Shortstop: Ozzie Smith. In the Hall of Fame (as is Luis Aparicio, Phil Rizutto, etc).
Third base: Brooks Robinson. In the Hall of Fame.
Left field: Nobody cares about left field defense. But it's probably Barry Bonds anyway.
Center field: Probably Willie Mays. He's in.
Right field: Probably Roberto Clemente. He's in.
Catcher: Johnny Bench. In.
Pitcher: Nobody cares about pitching defense or Jim Kaat would be in.

Now, obviously only a few of those (Maz, Ozzie, Brooks) are in for their defense. But the point is, center field is a prime defensive position. If Andruw Jones is really the greatest ever AND he approaches 400 homers ... I'm not sure he is too far away from being a sure Hall of Famer.

Interesting: Tim Hudson. He has 124 wins, a great winning percentage, a good ERA (3.46) and he looks to be back. It is true, though, that he's almost 32, and he will probably not have an enormous win total when his career ends. He could use a Cy Young or two to help build his case.

Surprising: Edgar Renteria. I have to be honest: I almost never think about Edgar Renteria. So that's probably why I'm stunned that he's 31 years old, he's closing in on 2,000 hits, he's got a couple of gold gloves, he's been the starting shortstop on two World Series teams and all that. There's one Hall of Fame line that I don't think will change: I think if you get 3,000 hits, you will get in. Edgar Renteria has a real shot at 3,000 hits.

Philadelphia Phillies

Worth a mention: Jamie Moyer. When Moyer was 33 years old, he was 72-79 in his Major League career with a 4.44 ERA. He had played for six teams.

Most victories after age 33 (with losses):
1. Cy Young, 225-146. Hall of Famer.
2. Phil Niekro, 221-190. Hall of Famer.
3. Warren Spahn, 197-135. Hall of Famer.
4. Jack Quinn, 168-145. Pitched until he was 49.
5. Charlie Hough, 163-167.
6. Randy Johnson, 157-81. Soon to be HOF.
7. Gaylord Perry, 156-140. Hall of Famer.
7 (tie). Roger Clemens, 156-66. Soon to be HOF.
9. Tommy John, 154-115. Still on ballot.
10. Jamie Moyer, 147-88.
11. Nolan Ryan, 146-123. Hall of Famer.
12. Eddie Plank, 140-73. Hall of Famer.

Florida Marlins

None. I just noticed that two of the Marlins' pitchers who are 30 or older are Wes Obermueller and Nate Field ... a couple of old Royals. I always wonder where old Royals pitchers go. I should probably know more about 37-year-old Jason Wood. He first made it to the big leagues as a utility guy for Oakland in 1998 -- and he was 28 then. He picked up with Detroit the next year, then disappeared for seven years, reemerging with Florida last year. I admire that sort of determination.

Washington Nationals

None. Whew, that's a bad team.

Milwaukee Brewers

None. Bud Selig is going to go into the Hall though. Yes he will.

Houston Astros

Sure thing: Craig Biggio. He's less than a month away from 3,000 hits. ... Biggio is one of those rare players who will go into the Hall of Fame first ballot even though I don't think ANYBODY thought of him as a Hall of Famer when he was in his prime.

I think Paul Molitor was like that too. Until Molitor was 30 or so, he seemed like just another guy. He had the drug stain. He was hurt all the time. And then he became "Paul Molitor: Professional Hitter" and he stole bases, he cracked doubles, he hit .316 after he turned 30. And one day you looked up (or at least I did) and thought: "Holy cow, Paul Molitor is going to be in the Hall of Fame." OK, I didn't really say, "Holy cow."

Biggio sneaks up on you too. He was a much better young player than Molitor, but I just don't think people generally viewed him as much more than a scrappy second baseman who stole some bases and hit some doubles. Perception, again. Then one day you looked up, you saw a guy with 3,000 hits (just about), four Gold Gloves, a guy who led the league in runs scored twice, doubles three times, stolen bases once, a guy who will end his career in the Top 15 all-time in runs scored and doubles, a guy who this year will probably become the most hit player in baseball history (he's four shy of Hughie Jennings), and a player who is eighth all-time in the classic "Power-Speed Number," which measures, you know, a player's power and speed.

Reader update: Based on some of the emails I've gotten, people seem to think I am somehow down on Biggio. I am not. I think he's one of the truly great players over the last 25 years -- one of the five best ever (in the mix with Morgan, Hornsby, Collins, Robinson, maybe Sandberg). I am trying here to guess at the pereception of the Hall of Fame voters. It's only a guess, but I know a lot of them. And I honestly do not believe most people saw Biggio as a Hall of Famer until late in his career (and frankly some still don't see it).

Because we love our readers: Roy Oswalt. He hasn't turned 30 yet, but a couple of people have emailed me about him, and G-Man wrote a couple of comments about him. So what the heck? He has 100 victories, a terrific ERA (3.04) and a good winning percentage. He has also finished Top 5 in the Cy Young voting four times and has a career ERA+ of 143. He's on his way, no doubt.

Power-Speed Number
1. Barry Bonds, 605.50
2. Rickey Henderson, 490.41
3. Willie Mays, 447.05
4. Bobby Bonds, 386.01
5. Joe Morgan, 385.90
6. Andre Dawson, 365.78
7. Hank Aaron, 364.22
8. Craig Biggio, 336.23
9. Sammy Sosa, 336.22
10. Reggie Jackson, 324.56

Chicago Cubs

Interesting: Alfonso Soriano. Speaking of Power-Speed. It's too early to make any real prediction about Soriano ... his career counting numbers are not that impressive because he didn't make it to the big leagues for good until he was 25. None of his comps through age 30 are in the Hall of Fame. But it's hard to find a comp for him ... there really haven't been too many like Soriano. his No. 1 comp is Lance Parrish who couldn't have been a more different player. No. 2 is Howard Johnson -- that's more like it.

Pittsburgh Pirates

None. Not only that, the Pirates don't even have a single guy over 30 in their starting lineup or in their rotation. I'm telling you: I like that Pirates team.

St. Louis Cardinals

Interesting: Scott Rolen. Seven gold gloves, 255 homers (at age 32), he has a chance to join Mike Schmidt as the best pure power and defense guy ever to play third base. ... He seems like a no BS guy on the field. You know how some guys just SEEM like they will do anything and everything to help the team win? Off the field, well, I don't know about that. They might whine, complain, moan, I just don't know. But on the field, the No BS guy seems like the type who makes all the plays, lives in the dirt, breaks up double plays, gives you great at-bats when you need them, plays through injuries and all that.

A No BS team
1B: Don Mattingly
2B: Bobby Grich
SS: Barry Larkin
3B: Scott Rolen (or Buddy Bell)
LF: Dusty Baker
CF: Jim Edmonds
RF: Paul O'Neil.
C: I originally left off catchers, because to me they're all no BS guys (except perhaps Andy Allanson) but a brilliant reader recommends Paul LoDuca and, as Cole Porter said: It's all right with me.
DH: Hal McRae.
P: Mike Mussina

Have to mention: Chris Carpenter. He had his first really good year when he was 29, so at 32 he only has 100 victories. And he's hurt again. It's an uphill climb.

Have to mention: Albert Pujols. Obviously, he's too young to really talk about seriously ... but nine of his 10 Baseball Reference comps through 26 are in the Hall of Fame or will be soon. The only exception, Hal Trosky, retired at 28 because of migraine headaches. Trosky tried to come back but was never the same. If Pujols retired tomorrow because of migraine headaches, he would not have anywhere near the necessary 10 years to be on the Hall of Fame ballot. But I think if they put him on the ballot, he would get elected.

Have to mention: Jim Edmonds. It doesn't look like his numbers will quite have the Hall of Fame distance, but he has been a terrific player, and he made the greatest catch I ever saw live -- (that diving, over-the-head catch he made in Kansas City).

Cincinnati Reds

Sure thing: Ken Griffey. Do people talk about Junior anymore? I cannot recall another athlete falling from the most popular athlete in sports to another face in the crowd quite the way Griffey has. Throughout the 1990s, he was undoubtedly the most popular, most beloved, most admired player in the game. But if you are someone who has been following baseball for only six or seven years, it's quite possible you have barely even HEARD of Griffey. Yes, part of the problem is that he has suffered and endless series of injuries. Part of the problem is that Barry Bonds became superhuman and other great young players emerged and Griffey sort of fell off.

I think a big part of the problem, oddly enough, is that he moved from Seattle to Cincinnati. You would think that the move to Cincinnati would actually help his exposure -- he moved away from the West Coast time slot, to his hometown, a city with amazing baseball tradition, so on and so forth. But for some reason, I think people always viewed Griffey as a Seattle Mariner -- I think his tie to that team and city was similar to Ripken in Baltimore, Gwynn in San Diego, Brett in Kansas City, Mattingly in New York. When he left Seattle -- more than perhaps any other -- I think he lost some of his aura and wonder. *(Correction: Originally I had Griffey leaving Seattle as a free agent, and he was actually traded, though he did force the trade).

Or maybe people just realize he's only averaging about 92 games played over the last six seasons.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Interesting: Nomar Garciaparra. He has three Hall of Fame comps on his list, but two of them (Mickey Cochrane and Bill Dickey) were catchers. ... He still has quite a bit of Hall of Fame work to do -- he only has 1,600 hits and 212 homers and he's about to turn 34. He seems to me like one of those guys who will fall short, like Tony Oliva. But you never know. ... Through his first five years, Nomar had a career .333 batting average, and I cannot remember seeing a guy who hit the ball HARDER than him. Everything just seemed like a rocket. He still has a .317 lifetime average.

Surprising: Jeff Kent. Well, surprising is not the right word. Stunning is the right word. Jeff Kent has about 75 more home runs than any other second baseman in baseball history. He will soon break Charlie Gehringer's record for most RBIs by a second baseman. He has 2,200 hits and still seems to be going -- he might have two or three more years left in him. He has an MVP award. Is Jeff Kent really going to the Hall of Fame? Really? ... He has a reputation as a terrible defensive second baseman. John Dewan, the guru of all things defense, says he's not as bad as people think.

Worth a mention: Luis Gonzalez. He will end up in that 2,500 hit range and somewhere short of 400 homers ... that's real Hall of Fame no-man's land.

-- Jim Rice. 2,452 hits. 382 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: Pretty good now. He seems to be getting support. But it has taken a long time.

-- Orlando Cepeda. 2,351 hits. 379 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: The writers never voted for him. He made it in through the Veteran's Committee door just as the Veteran's Committee was about to be disbanded.

-- Andres Galarraga. 2,333 hits. 399 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He does not have a real Hall of Fame shot.

-- Chili Davis. 2,380 hits, 360 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He got three Hall of Fame votes his one year on the ballot.

-- Steve Finley. 2,530 hits, 303 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: Bleak, I'm thinking.

-- Dwight Evans. 2,446 hits. 385 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He got absolutely no support, which I will admit surprises me because he also had the reputation as a great defensive outfielder.

-- Carlton Fisk. 2,356 hits, 376 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He got in, of course, because he's a catcher. But even he didn't go first ballot.

Honorable mention non Hall of Famers in this category: Dale Murphy (2111 hits, 398 homers), Dave Parker (2712 hits, 339 homers), Edgar Martinez (2,247 hits, 309 homers), Ellis Burks (2,107 hits, 352 homers), Reggie Smith (2020 hits, 314 homers), Ron Santo (2,254 hits, 342 homers), Joe Carter (2,184 hits, 396 homers), Gary Gaetti (2,280 hits, 360 homers), Graig Nettles (2,225 hits, 390 homers).

The few in the group who broke through: Chuck Klein, Johnny Mize, Yogi Berra, Tony Perez, Johnny Bench.

San Diego Padres

Sure thing: Greg Maddux. The last few years of Maddux have been strange to watch. After the 2002 season, Maddux was 273-152 with a 2.83 career ERA. Considering the time when he pitched, the four consecutive Cy Young Awards, the 13 consecutive Gold Gloves, the brilliant control ... he seemed like a real candidate for unanimous Hall of Fame consideration and also a potential place in baseball's all-time pitching rotation. ... Since then, he has gone 78-60 with a 3.85 ERA. What did that do? He won his 300th game but lifted his career ERA higher than 3.00. He got his 3,000th strikeout but really messed up his amazing winning percentage. He added to his legacy and took away from it.

But I suspect Maddux doesn't give a damn about any of that. He still loves pitching, so he pitches. Good for him. It's one of the reasons I love the guy.

Sure thing: Trevor Hoffman. I distinctly remember the first time I was in San Diego and witnessed that whole "Hell's Bells" act where the AC/DC bells ring and the crowd goes nuts and Hoffman comes into the game ... it was during the 1998 World Series, I think. If so it's the only thing from the 1998 World Series I remember. I thought it was pretty cool. ... Hoffman will get to 500 saves, which could set a relief pitcher standard. As I've written here before, nobody really knows what to do with relief pitchers and the Hall of Fame. But 500 saves seems like a nice round number and very difficult to reach -- well, nobody has reached it yet.

Surprising: David Wells. He's not going to the Hall of Fame. But ... he has more wins, fewer losses, more strikeouts, better ERA+ than Catfish Hunter. Not bad for a guy who didn't even have 50 wins when he turned 30.

Reader update: Brian Giles. I did not have Giles on the original list because, quite frankly, I don't see any Hall of Fame possibilities for him. He didn't get his first 500 at-bat season until he was 28, and he stopped hitting home runs when he was 32. That said, he certainly IS worth a mention -- he was really an amazing player in his prime. He hit for power then, didn't strike out, walked a ton, was in the Top five in OBP four times, and he did it in Pittsburgh when no one was watching. How about these Cleveland Indians BACKUPS, by the way?

-- Jeromy Burnitz (315 career homers)
-- Brian Giles (.407 lifetime OBP)
-- Richie Sexson (two 45 homer seasons)
-- Sean Casey (.301 lifetime BA, three-time All-Star)
-- Dave Roberts (214 stolen bases)

This has nothing to do with anything, but here is a list of really good players who actually played for the Indians for a time at the ends of their careers:

-- Steve Carlton (5-9, 5.37 ERA in 1987)
-- Phil Niekro (won 18 games over two seasons for the Tribe)
-- Lance Parrish (played 10 games in 1993)
-- Dave Winfield (played 46 games and hit two homers in 1995)
-- Kevin Mitchell (maybe not a great player but an awfully good one. Got 20 games in '97).
-- Dwight Gooden (actually pitched two years in Cleveland ... won 11 games)
-- Cecil Fielder (14 games in Cleveland to finish off a 319-homer career)
-- Harold Baines (22 RBIs in 28 games in 1999)
-- Mark Langston (absolutely no recollection of this ... won 1 game 1999)
-- Brady Anderson (34 games and 1 homer in 2002)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Sure thing: Randy Johnson. Will he get to 300 victories? He's 18 short now, and he kind of looks like he's running on fumes. I wonder how important 300 victories is to him. Will he come back next year to do it even if he has a lousy year? He never seemed like a guy who cared about those sort of things, but in the end how can he not care, right?

San Francisco Giants

Sure thing: Barry Bonds. Best young player I ever saw. Best old player I ever saw. I have lots of thoughts about Barry, but you know I'm about to hit the road with him, so I'll save some. Plus, I'm beginning to see the finish line here.

Interesting: Omar Vizquel. There are people I respect -- Bill James being one of them -- who think Vizquel was wildly overrated defensively. I think it's possible because Vizquel was one of those players who made every single play look absolutely beautiful. People who have that natural grace and ability make even the routine look like art are often overrated. Darryl Strawberry had such a beautiful swing, looked so good hitting the ball (and striking out), that people probably saw him better than he was. Sanders was still pretty darned good, and so is Vizquel. He has 2,500 hits and 11 Gold Gloves and countless barehanded plays. I think he will get in.

Surprising: Ray Durham. Well, I'm surprised ... the guy has four Hall of Fame Comps on his list, including Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg and Paul Molitor. He will be 35 at the end of the season and will probably have 2,000 hits. I don't think he's quite a Hall of Famer, but if he's a good old player, it's not impossible.

Colorado Rockies

Interesting: Todd Helton. How are the voters going to view Coors Field? It's a tough question. Helton is a .334 lifetime hitter. His 2000 season (.372, 42, 147) is one of the best in baseball history. His .592 career slugging percentage is ninth all-time. ... And yet, does anyone believe it? Look: His career OPS is 7th all-time. SEVENTH! ALL-TIME! Right between Jimmie Foxx and Hank Greenberg. But his ADJUSTED OPS+ is 50th all-time. Right between Bill Joyce and Mike Donlin. ... I wonder if Helton will need to go to another team and another park and put up some numbers just to get people to take him seriously. I don't know. He looks like he's hitting again -- even if not with quite the same power -- and so at some point his career numbers might be so ridiculously good that he will overpower the light air in Colorado.

Surprising: Steve Finley. See: Gonzalez, Luis. He's in that 2,500-hit, fewer than 400-homer club. He does add five Gold Gloves and more than 300 steals to the case. I don't think many view him as a Hall of Famer ... but he has a case.