Willie Wilson: Fastest ever?

So, here’s what I’m wondering: Who is the fastest player in baseball? Well, actually I’m wondering two things – who is the fastest player now and who was the fastest player over the last 50 years. These questions occurred to me the other day when I had a few moments to speak with Willie Wilson. I’m pretty sure that Willie Wilson was the fastest player I ever saw. I didn’t see him often. I lived in Cleveland then, and my idea of speed was Miguel Dilone.

(Hey, Miguel Dilone was fast. In 1980 he hit .348 despite never hitting a ball more than 100 feet in the air, and he stole 61 bases. In 1982, though, he hit a solo home run off of La Marr Hoyt, his first home run in two seasons, and at that point he started swinging harder than Sinatra in Vegas. He hit about .109 the rest of his career. But I'm getting away from the point. He really was fast).

Anyway, I distinctly remember (or at least I’ve convinced myself that I distinctly remember) a routine ground ball Willie Wilson hit to shortstop at old Municipal Stadium, one of those ground balls that was so traditional and everyday that the instinct was to look down and mark the “6-3” on your scorecard before the ball even reached the shortstop. Frank Duffy (or maybe it was Jerry Dybzinski or Tom Veryzer) scooped the ball cleanly, made a strong throw to first – and Willie Wilson was already PAST the bag. He was halfway into the outfield. The umpire called him out. Willie was used to getting jobbed on bang-bang calls at first base (and this one wasn’t really bang-bang, it was more like "bang ... have some coffee ... read a book ... do your taxes ... bang"). He went back to the dugout without (noticeably) complaining. But everyone was duly awed. This man was fast.

The problem is: You can’t really have a rational discussion about Willie Wilson’s speed in Kansas City. This is a town without many conceits, but when you start talking to people here about how fast Willie was, the conversations rapidly deteriorate into one of those old Saturday Night Live “Who would win a round of golf between God and Ditka” things. There have been many fast players to come through Kansas City. Bert Campaneris was fast, Amos Otis was fast, Fred Patek was fast, even the aging Vince Coleman was fast. Johnny Damon could run, Carlos Beltran could run and, man oh man, the young Tom Goodwin could run. But Willie has been set apart in the same way people set apart their wedding china. Willie Wilson is the speed-burner Kansas City brings out for special occasions. The best any Kansas City Royals player can ever hope for is to be considered almost as fast as Willie Wilson.

OK, so question No. 1: Was Willie Wilson the fastest player in the last, say, 50 years? For this, I (of course) turned to Bill James, who (of course) had his own unique way to look at the question. You Bill James disciples already know that Bill has a value he invented called the “speed score.” I guess that the good folks at Baseball Prospectus have tinkered with speed scores too. It is an attempt to pull a players speed out of the statistics. Bill is very quick to point out his speed score is just an estimate; it’s not meant to be a precise measurement of a player’s speed. But, I must say, it’s awfully good. It takes into account five categories:

1. Stolen bases.
2. Stolen base percentage.
3. Grounding into double plays.
4. Runs scored.
5. Triples.

Now, all of these statistics – all of them – involve more than just pure speed. But they are certainly the statistics that reflect speed (I’ve always had this bizarre hunch that really fast players reach on errors more than other players – this is my “speed forces defenders to rush their throws” theory – but I don’t believe the stats back it up).

Remember: We are talking about baseball speed. When the Royals traded for Joey Gathright last season, the reports were that he was the fastest player in the game. He might be – perhaps he has the best 40-yard dash time in the game, I don’t know. But these aren’t the combines. Joey Gathright on the field did not look particularly fast in 2006. He got poor jumps in the outfield. He got thrown out on the bases quite often. He just never seemed comfortable using his natural speed. The numbers bear this out. According to The Bill James Handbook, Gathright went from first to third on a single only three out of 12 times and scored from first on a double only one out of three times. In Kansas City, he was only successful on 10 out of 16 stolen base attempts. Gathright may be fast. But he wasn't baseball fast.

Bill being Bill, he saw what I was after and he sent me a speed score list of the fastest players in baseball each of the last 50-plus years (min. 20 stolen bases). I wasn’t going to type them all in, but hey, he sent them along, and it’s a good list, and maybe you will be so appreciative that you will buy a book. I’m not going to include their actual speed scores except in a couple of cases because frankly I don’t think it would add much and also I have to finish this and go to the Kansas State-Oklahoma basketball game for my real job. Just know that Bill used a 10-point system in the five categories, so the perfect speed score would be 10.0. I throw in a few comments throughout:

1955: Bill Bruton
1956: Jim Rivera
1957: Luis Aparicio.
1958: Aparicio
1959: Vada Pinson.
The "Vada Pinson for the Hall of Fame" people seem to have quieted down for whatever reason. It seems like years ago -- before I was a Hall voter -- I would get five letters a year from people who ran down Pinson's many achievements. I know the argument well: He led the league in doubles twice, triples twice, hits twice, he won a Gold Glove, he had five 20-homer-and-20-stolen-base seasons, he had 2,757 hits and so on. Anyway, I don't hear from those folks much now.

1960: Bill Bruton
Bruton was a true speedster who led the league in stolen bases three times and in triples twice. He hit three triples in a game – two of them with the bases loaded.
1961: Maury Wills.
1962: Wills
Wills scored a 9.1 speed score this year, the highest until Willie Wilson in the late 1970s. This is the year Wills stole 104 bases and was caught just 13 times. Consider this: Nobody had stolen more than 56 bases since World War II. Dom DiMaggio once led the league with 15 stolen bases. It really is understandable why so many people who were around Los Angeles that year are convinced Wills should be in the Hall of Fame. This season must have seemed revolutionary. Heck, imagine someone coming along NOW who stole 104 bases. Nobody has come within 25 of that since before the FIRST George Bush was in office.
1963: Wills
1964: Lou Brock.
1965: Zoilo Versailles
Brock was second.
1966: Bert Campenaris
Brock was second again.
1967: Brock
1968: Brock
1969: Brock
Do you sense a pattern here?

1970: Bobby Bonds
1971: Freddie Patek.
Freddie the Flea was second in the league in stolen bases – to his teammate Amos Otis – and led the league in triples.
1972: Dave Nelson.
1973: Brock is back.
1974: Herb Washington.
I have no idea how Bill’s system could have picked out Washington, the Great Speed Experiment who did not have a single at-bat that year. He only stole 29 bases in 45 attempts, which isn't great. Maybe it’s because he scored 29 runs in 0 at-bats – nice ratio. And he certainly did not ground into a double play. I don’t get the number in this case, but I have no doubt Washington was indeed the fastest MAN in the game that year, since he was one of the fastest men in the world. But the fastest PLAYER was again Brock. He tied with the unfairly forgotten Larry Lintz, who could fly but couldn’t hit and would soon take his place as Oakland’s new Herb Washington.
1975: Wilbur Howard.
Often forgotten – well, hey, I forgot him anyway. Stole 32 bases and hit eight triples in his one season with more than 200 at-bats. Mickey Rivers was second. Do you remember the time when Mickey Rivers started calling himself "Miguel Rivera?" Did I dream that?
1976: Davey Lopes.
1977: Omar Moreno.
1978: Moreno.
1979: Willie Wilson.
Here we go, the greatest speed score of the last 50 years – and perhaps the greatest in baseball history. Willie scored a 9.8. Look at this year: He led the league with 83 stolen bases and was caught 12 times. He was third with 13 triples, sixth with 113 runs. And get this: He hit into one double play in more than 600 plate appearances. I’m not sure if Bill’s data considers this, but Willie also hit FIVE inside the park homers this year. There are no reliable speed scores for Cool Papa Bell or Ty Cobb or Billy Hamilton or Jackie Robinson as a young man. But it’s hard to imagine anyone was ever faster than Willie Wilson in 1979.

1980: Willie Wilson.
Same year more or less – 79 stolen bases, only caught 10 times, led league with 15 triples. But this year he grounded into four double plays, dropping his speed score to 9.6. Wilson was so fast that the burner Ron Leflore, who was undoubtedly one of the fastest men in baseball history, who stole 97 bases and hit 11 triples, finished second.
1981: Lee Lacy.
1982: Lacy.
Lacy was fast. More than that, though, he inspired Topps to make more baseball cards of him in 1981 than any other player in baseball history – at least that’s how I remember him.
1983: Rudy Law.
It’s easy to forget. Rudy Law had 77 stolen bases this year. I'd forgotten it. By the way, Rickey Henderson, who stole 108 bases, did not finish in the Top 3 in speed score. In fact, he NEVER finished in the Top 3, which seems amazing but is actually pretty easily explained. Rickey never hit a lot of triples (he finished ninth in the league this year -- one of only two times he placed in the Top 10), he banged into a surpring number of double plays, he was caught stealing more than any player since they started keeping the stat. Rickey was an amazing player, a fearless base stealer and undoubtedly very fast. But I don't doubt that, pure baseball speed, Rudy Law, Willie Wilson and Vince Coleman were faster. Lee Lacy too.
1984: Juan Samuel.
1985: Vince Coleman
Another speed dynasty is about to begin. Gary Redus was awfully fast this year and for the next few years, but he never could top Coleman.
1986: Coleman
1987: Coleman
1988: Cecil Espy
Seems like a blip in the system here. Coleman was second.
1989: Coleman.

1990: Alex Cole.
Wow. Remember him? What a good-looking young player. Hit .300 his rookie year, took a walk now and then, stole 41 bases in only 63 games, It never quite worked out for him. And after he retired he was pled guilty to a drug charge. Sad deal.
1991: Lenny Dykstra.
1992: Tim Raines.
Yes, I think he’s a Hall of Famer. I say that for my friend Keith Law.
1993: Coleman.
1994: Coleman.
It is remarkable how long Coleman maintained his speed. This year he was already 32, he couldn’t hit a lick, he couldn’t get on base, but he still stole 50 bases and legged out 12 triples – second in the league in both categories. He grounded into just two double plays.
1995: Coleman.
1996: Lance Johnson
1997: Delino DeShields
1998: Randy Winn
1999: Tony Womack

2000: Womack.
2001: Tom Goodwin.
2002: Dave Roberts
Isn’t it strange how during a certain era – let’s say beginning around 1996 or so – the “fastest man in baseball” tag sort of started to lose cache. It’s like something happened around that time, something that fundamentally changed the game, but I can't put my finger on what that might have been.
2003: Rafael Furcal
2004: Dave Roberts
2005: Dave Roberts

Well, that was fun. So, for the record, Willie Wilson had the two best speed scores over the last 50 years. Believe it or not, Dave Roberts in 2004 had the third-highest score. He stole 38 bases and was caught only three times. He hit seven triples and scored quite a few runs for only 319 at-bats. He also did something somewhat memorable in the playoffs, although I could be getting that wrong. I need to ask Bill.

Anyway, Bill wants me to remind everyone again that this statistic is not there to end arguments but to start them. So, why not? Using Bill James speed scores and various other considerations such as my own ridiculous opinions, I believe the 10 fastest players over the last 50 or so years were -- I'm talking the fastest players at their peak:

1. Willie Wilson.
2. Vince Coleman
3. Maury Wills
4. Lou Brock
5. Omar Moreno
6. Luis Aparcio
7. Ron LeFlore
8. Dave Roberts
9. Lee Lacy
10. Bill Bruton

Honorable mention: Juan Samuel, Rudy Law, Mookie Wilson and Pearl Jam (Note: Yes as an alert reader has already pointed out, it was Mookie Blaylock that was the original name of Pearl Jam. But I say anytime you run across a Mookie of any kind you mention Pearl Jam), Kenny Lofton.

As always, I’ve gone way over my time limit. So next entry we’ll discuss the second question: Who is the fastest player in today’s game? (Hint: It is not Frank Thomas).

Program alert for those in the Kansas City area: I will be giving a presentation about “The Soul of Baseball” and signing books Monday night at the Jewish Community Center, 5801 W. 115th Street in Overland Park. Admission is free, though there will be armed guards there to make sure everyone buys a book afterward. I’m kidding. They won’t be armed. I mean, not with live ammunition. The JCC is asking people to please RSVP here just so they can get a count for the dessert afterward. But even if you forget to do that, you’re welcome to come.