Movie Scouting Report 1
Roy Hobbs, New York Knights.
Strengths: Prodigious power. … Sweet left-handed swing generates unbelievable bat speed for a fairly small man. … Saw him hit the cover off the ball … Can’t throw a fastball by him … When he’s locked in, there seems no good way to pitch him. … Generally a pull hitter, but shows awesome power the other way. Hit the left-field clock in Chicago. … Hits righties and lefties equally well … Plus-plus arm in right field. May have been a pitcher. … Plays the game hard.
Weaknesses: Below average runner … Streaky hitter who can go into pronounced slumps. Word on the street is he likes to party a bit … Not an especially patient hitter. When struggling will chase the outside breaking balls … Seems easily distracted, especially by women. … Showing signs of age.
Overall: Hobbs has emerged out of nowhere to become the best player in baseball. No other hitter can match his combination of power and average. … Very superstitious player, who uses the same bat. … Plays his best in front of women wearing white. … Doesn’t like to talk about mysterious past …
Movie question: Was Scotty Carson, the scout in “The Natural” who signed Roy Hobbs a good guy or a bad guy? On the one hand, Pop, the manager, gave Scotty the authority to sign any player “if he ever found anyone decent.” He found Roy Hobbs, signed him, and sent in a report that he was “one hell of a hitter.” That seems to indicate he was a good guy/good scout.
On the other hand, Scotty personally told The Judge, the owner, that he only signed Hobbs off of the Heeber Oilers to fail.
“Judge, I’m just doing what you asked. Hobbs is a joke, a nobody from nowhere.”
My opinion: Scotty was still loyal to Pop and he knew that Hobbs was going to be a great player. He was obviously handcuffed by The Judge – that’s why he was watching the Heeber Oilers to begin with – but a chief scout like Scotty Carson could not have missed the talent of Roy Hobbs. I think he signed Hobbs, sent him in to help Pop and then tried to cover up with this “Hobbs is a joke” line.
50 comments:
I think it was the Hebrew Oilers.
A few years ago I tried to figure out what Hobbs' stats were in 1939 (the year the movie takes place). Others had tried this before (Bill Simmons?), but it seemed to me that they didn't try very hard, so I took a swing at it.
-First I counted all the home runs Hobbs is shown hitting in the movie, just to establish a minimum. That turned out to be 17 or 18 (depending on whether one shot of Hobbs trotting around the bases was a separate homer from the one before).
-Next, I estimated how many games he played. According to the movie, Hobbs got into the lineup around mid-July. In a 154-game season, this would mean he played no more than 73 or so games. To make sure, I counted the number of games the Giants played from mid-July on. (The Knights were sort of stand-ins for the Giants. They're shown playing every team in the National League except the Giants.)
-I considered the dimensions of his ballpark. "Knights Field" was actually old Pilot Field in Buffalo, which was 310 ft down the right field line, and very deep to left-center (not unlike Yankee Stadium). In other words, a paradise for lefty power hitters. However, I figured that Hobbs was likely in that rare class of sluggers, like McGwire, say, who hit the ball so hard that they're not affected much by their home surroundings. Certainly the blast that knocked out the light tower would have been a home run even in Braves' Field.
-I had to factor in the two-to-three week slump Hobbs went through in August while he was dating Memo Paris. He hardly hit at all during this time, and the Knights slipped to 5th place.
-Finally I looked for other great seasons, by actual players, to use as a comparison. Ted Williams in 1957 seemed like a good comp. He was 38-years old (Hobbs was 35 when he joined the Knights) and had an absolute monster season (.388/.526/.731). Besides which, Redford (or the screenwriter) seems to have used the Splendid Splinter as a model for Hobbs. He wore the same number as Williams (which I think was Redford's idea), and of course there's this...
"And then? And then when I walked down the street people would've looked and they would've said there goes Roy Hobbs, the best there ever was in this game."
Which is almost exactly like Williams' famous aspiration: "All I ever wanted out of life was that when I walked down the street people would say, 'there goes Ted Williams, the best goddamned hitter who ever lived.'"
Anyway, I pro-rated Williams' season to account for Hobbs' playing time, but it didn't look quite right, so I tweaked it a little bit (added power mostly), which made his rate stats look more like Bonds in '02. Hobbs probably could not have hit more than 34 homers, which is a Bonds-ian rate. Even this seemed high, but then, it wasn't over a whole season. Anyway, without further ado, here's Roy Hobbs' stat line:
Roy Hobbs
Year Age Tm Lg G AB
1939 35 NYK NL 73 265
Runs H 2B 3B HR RBI
86 101 24 5 34 99
SB BB SO BA OBP SLG
3 67 43 .381 .509 .894
OPS OPS+ RC
1.403 285 117
They're just made-up numbers, but it was kind of a fun way to spend an afternoon. The Memo slump kept him from hitting .400, I figure.
That's great! The Natural is one of my favorite movies.
Hobbs hit his home runs not in the "old
Pilot Field" but in old War Memorial Stadium, a/k/a/ the "Rockpile", where the dimensions were less than 300 feet to right field. Pilot Field was not built until 1988.
The dimensions to right in the Rockpile were such a joke that the Bisons installed a high screen in right field - a pseudo-monster of sorts. Despite this, luminaries such as Rick Lancellotti and Shanie Dugas had big power years there - Lancellotti hit 41 homers one year.
It was so short that when my summer league team played there as eighth graders, one of my teammates hit the wall on the fly.
If you read the book, it's actually ridiculous. Hobbs basically never makes an out until he becomes a total asshole, and he never walks, and then his slump is catastrophic. I would guess him at something like .900/.900/2.800 outside the slump and .000/.000/.000 in it.
That is awesome!
Here's the poker table conversation for this weekend!
If you read the book, it's actually ridiculous.
And he strikes out in the clutch.
I think the most amazing thing about his year was when he hit a walk off home run on the road (at Wrigley). Pretty sure he is the only one to do that.
I like the movie, classic. I like good conversation over poker, but if you have that much time to go over this, then you need a better hobby to fill your afternoon. The fact I read this is only because a buddy of mine singled it out and sent it in an email. No offense, we all find "fun" in different ways. Only good news is You are probably not into drugs. Have a GREAT day!
I think the most amazing thing about his year was when he hit a walk off home run on the road (at Wrigley). Pretty sure he is the only one to do that.
Considering the movie was set in 1939, it is entirely possible for that to happen. Teams chose whether to bat first or second until about 1950 or so, so the home team did not always bat last.
Great Analysis. Glad to see someone took the time to figure what Hobbs potential actaully was, and how an opposing pitcher should consider attacking him.
If he was in today's National League, he would have a monster year (the NL is like one step above AAA)... Yeah, i know, the Cards won the Series... So what?
It's like, they Say that Pujols is the best in the game... Did he ever play in the AL where there is better pitching and defense??
Ridiculously awsome most of the time, fails in the clutch situations during regular season, plays in New York...
I think those stats are a little off. Only 101 hits in 73 games? That's an average of a little over one hit per game. If you add in his walks it makes it that he averaged being on base only around twice per game. The home runs are probably right though. I think .423 with around 160 hits is more like it.
This is classic, the other guy was right, the stadium was war memorial not pilot field and right field wasnt deep enough for a wiffle ball game. Can somebody really tell me though about the teams choosing whether they wanted to bat first or last. That is the first time I ever hear of that. Roy Hobbs was a once in a lifetime talent, one of those mysteries of life and nature that are better left out of the world of science. And if we are gonna talk about the greats, what about the great scout Virgil Sweet, or who would you rather have in game seven of the series, Sammy Bodeen or Steve Nebraska?
i'm glad this makes baseball fun for you guys. why dont you try putting a mitt on your hand and throwing a ball to somebody. it's awesome.
Slava wizdorawliway
hohooh
These people that are insulting the guy that compiled the stats are ridiculous. Just because he did that doesn't mean he doesn't have a life. Do the analysts at espn that predict stats not have lives? Obviously they are getting payed but they probably still enjoy it. If someone is curious enough to do this, and share it with others that are curious, why does it matter? And the anonymous guy who told him to go play catch.....who the hell calls it a mitt. What are you 80?
Try getting around without a walker. It's awesome.
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