Monday, May 28, 2007

Bo Knows Excitement, Part 1

Wrote a fun column over the weekend about Bo Jackson, and it made me think about a couple of things. One it made remember just how remarkable Bo was ... he was never a great baseball player, and he didn't last long enough to be a great football player. But I think he just might be America's last sports folk hero. With all the camera angles we have now, the constant (and instant) analysis, the 297 back-to-back-to-back-to-back SportsCenters replaying every home run, dunk and chip-in countless times, the relentless talk radio voices and newspaper columnists breaking down every single thing, I'm just not sure anyone or anything can stand up to the scrutiny. If Babe Ruth had hit his called-shot home run in 2006, we would have seen it so many times in so many ways and heard so many opinions about it, that within three days it would have seemed old and tired and ordinary.

Bo just missed that. Sure, he was plenty hyped. But, for example, if you ever see a replay of his greatest play -- the throw from the wall that beat Harold Reynolds -- you will notice that the camera angle doesn't actually show the throw. It shows Bo chasing down the ball. Then it shows Reynolds rounding third. Then it shows Bo picking the ball. Then it shows Reynolds at the plate getting tagged out by Bob Boone. It's a terrible replay. You can't see anything. And it's a beautiful replay. You can't see anything.

Bo also made me wonder about this: Who are the 25 most exciting players in baseball? We're not talking the best players or the most-well rounded or the most underrated over overrated or any of that. I put together a formula (of course) that takes into account:

1. Triples (the most exciting play in baseball).
2. Stolen bases
3. Home runs
4. Batting average (but not on-base percentage -- walks are not exciting)
5. Slugging percentage
6. Defensive brilliance
7. X Factor.

Obviously defensive brilliance and X Factor are subjective criteria, but really in the end this whole concept is subjective. Anyway, with 100 as a base (Gary Sheffield scored exactly 100, for what that means), the formula says these are the 25 most exciting players in baseball today:

PLUG ALERT: OK, first, if you happen to live in the St. Louis area -- or know somebody who does -- I will be at the St. Louis County Library at 7 p.m. on Wednesday to discuss The Soul of Baseball and sign books. And then Thursday morning, I will be at the Maplewood U.S. Cellular Store from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. -- honestly I'm a bit worried about that one. A few years ago, I wrote an essay for a George Brett book, and they asked me to sign books at a mall, and like three people showed up. All three were disappointed that I was not George Brett. So if you would show up, I'd appreciate it.

OK, back to the regularly schedule blog:

25. Torii Hunter.
Excitement Score: 113

OK, I'll admit this ... I cheated a little bit. Hunter was actually tied with Bobby Abreu. Well, actually Abreu was ahead by decimal points. But it's got to be a blip in the system because Bobby Abreu is an astonishingly UNexciting player, at least for me. He's been a great player, don't get me wrong. But his at-bats, while savagely effective (as his .409 on-base percentage attests), are pretty much like watching Merchant and Ivory dramas. Ball. Foul. Ball. Man can't get in touch with his feelings. Foul. Ball. Foul. Foul. Woman feels unloved. Foul. Foul.

Abreu also stopped hitting for power somewhere along the way, and the last couple of years he's been sort of a Wally Joyner who won't swing the bat. Not exciting. I don't care what the system says.

Torii Hunter is probably not quite the defensive wizard he was a few years ago (though he's really hitting the heck out of the ball this year). He's still awfully good. And he's made several of the most amazing plays I've seen in centerfield. He's one of the very few players out there who consistently would run down balls that seemed like sure doubles. Every time an outfielder runs more than five feet to catch a ball, an announcer will usually say, "He stole a double from blah blah blah," but it's rarely a true stolen double. Hunter would really steal doubles.

(Along these lines: Very, very rarely does a guy actually "steal" a home run. Almost always when a guy leaps at the wall and makes a great catch, he's usually stealing a double -- the ball would not have actually left the yard. A true stolen home run -- there are maybe a half dozen of those every year -- are things to behold).

24. Derrek Lee
Excitement score: 114

I would not have necessarily put him on the list -- when I think "excitement" Derrek Lee isn't the first name that pops into mind -- but his number came up. And it actually fits: I saw Derrek Lee hit one of the five hardest-hit-balls of my lifetime at a game. I was with Buck O'Neil -- this was late April 2005 -- and at the time Lee was something like about .430. He was on everything. Late in the game he came up, and he rocketed a ball that must have hit the center field wall in about 0.3 seconds. It was startling -- the ball hit off the wall before the Houston centerfielder had taken two steps. I remember Buck said, "Oh my," and I tried to get him to say it was as hard a ball as he's ever seen hit. He wouldn't go there -- I guess he thought Josh Gibson, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams hit a few balls hard too. But he was impressed.

23. David Wright
Excitement score: 114

Remember the New York Mets third base situation was one of the all-time jokes in baseball history -- Steve Rushin wrote a whole poem of Mets third basemen.

You know what? That's really changed. Over the last 10 years, Mets third baseman (that would include Wright, Robin Ventura, Edgardo Alfonzo and one rather unfortunate Ty Wigginton year) have averaged .285 with 20 homers, 80 RBis, 80 runs and a 117 OPS.

Last year, Wright stole 20 bases and was caught only five times. This year he has already stolen 10 bases and he has not been caught yet. He's a pretty remarkable athlete. The left side of that Mets infield is something else.

Most stolen bases by a third baseman in a season (since 1920)
1. Chris Sabo, 1988: 46
2. Enos Cabell, 1977: 42.
3. Howard Johnson, 1989: 41
4. Bill Werber, 1934: 40
5. Enos Cabell, 1979: 37
(tie): Carney Lansford, 1989: 37
(tie): Joe Foy, 1969: 37
8. Bill Werber, 1937: 35
(tie): Enos Cabell, 1976: 35
(tie): Jerry Royster, 1979: 35

OK, before moving on I just have to say I'm absolutely stunned that Carney Lansford stole 37 bases in a season. I remember Lansford being SLOW -- I mean, I had a vivid picture in my mind of him being a double play machine. The funny part is that my memory was right and wrong. In the middle of Lansford's career -- in part because of injuries -- he was ludicrously slow. In 1983, for instance, he stole three bases and was caught eight times. Two years later, he stole two bases in pretty much a full season.

But when he turned 30, he must have worked in a wind tunnel or something because that year he stole a career high 27 bases, the next year he stole a career high 29 bases, and the next year he had his 37-stolen base season (that year he also hit a career low 2 homers -- he turned into a poor-man's Juan Pierre). Weird.

22. Juan Pierre
Excitement score: 114

How many bases do we think Juan Pierre would have stolen had he played in a different era and a different team -- say with the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1970s or 1980s?

Let's compare him with Vince Coleman and Lou Brock in their big stolen base years.

Coleman (1985): 170 hits, 50 walks, 0 HBP, 110 steals, 25 CS.
Brock (1974): 194 hits, 61 walks, 2 HBP, 118 SB, 33 CS.
Pierre (2003): 204 hits, 55 walks, 5 HBP, 65 SB, 20 CS.

As you can see, Pierre got on base more than Coleman or Brock. He ran about half the time, though, and is stolen base percentage was considerably lower. If they had let him run at the same rate, I estimate he would have stolen about 121 bases in 2003. And he would have been caught 38 times.

I'll leave it smarter people to decide if that would have made him a more or less valuable player. But the stolen base is exciting.

21. Chase Utley
Excitement score: 115

I was listening to the radio somewhere or other -- it wasn't Kansas City -- and the broadcasters were absolutely blasting the Kansas City Royals for not selecting Chase Utley in the 2000 amateur draft. The Royals took the lamentable high school pitcher Mike Stodolka that year (although Stodolka is trying to make it back as a hitter now). I can't remember the exact context of the discussion, but I know on of them said something like, "Well, that's how you end up being a terrible organization ... by passing on Chase Utley."

Now, let's be clear: If someone wants to rip the Royals draft record, by all means, rip away. It's been awful. Stodolka is only one of a remarkable line of first-round flops (Colt Griffin, Jeff Austin, Dee Brown, Chris George, Dan Reichert being only a few). But to single out the Royals for not taking Chase Utley ... it's ridiculous. Fourteen teams passed on Utley, including the Twins, Tigers, Cardinals and White Sox, who have done OK.

That said, boy, it would be nice to have a time machine wouldn't it?

1997: Royals select ... Lance Berkman.
1998: Royals select ... C.C. Sabathia
1999: Royals select ... Barry Zito
2000: Royals select ... Chase Utley
2001: Royals select ... Jeremy Bonderman
2002: Royals select ... Nick Swisher

That might have made a difference.

20. Carlos Guillen
Excitement score: 115

A blip in the system -- he's really not a particularly exciting player. But he's a really GOOD player. Last three years he's hit .318, 320 and .320. This year, he's hitting .322. He gives you a little power, a little speed, he's not bad defensively.

19. Chone Figgins
Excitement score: 115

The Bill James Handbook has a breakdown of base running -- it measures how often runners go first to third, second to home, first to home on a double, get caught up on the bases, etc. The thing I really like about it, though, is that the numbers (for once) actually validate my own opinions. I've said that Mark Teahen is one of the best pure base runners I've seen and last year Teahen ranked seventh in baseball with a +22.

If someone had asked me: Who is the best base runner in baseball, I would have said Chone Figgins. To me, Figgins is the one guy in the American League who flat terrifies you when he gets on. He has the absolutely to steal second, steal third and score on a fly ball just beyond the infield. He's electifying as a runner.

And Bill James Handbook ranks Chone Figgins as the best base runner in baseball at +28.

18. David Ortiz
Excitement score: 116

Every time he comes to the plate in a big situation, it's a thrill -- even if you don't believe there is any such thing as a clutch hitter ... Will Ortiz go down in history as the best player in baseball history ever to be just released by his team after a reasonably good year? I mean, Ortiz hit .272 with 20 homers in 412 at bats -- which might not be the stuff of legends but:

1. He did have a .500 slugging percentage.
2. He was only 26.
3. It was clear-cut improvement over previous years.

The Twins, famously, did not feel like they could afford Papi -- especially if he had another middling year -- and so the Red Sox signed him as a free agent for barely more than a million bucks. Ortiz then made the club (over the objections of some) and hit 31 homers that year. The next year, the Red Sox had a decent season.

Will Papi ever win an MVP award? Maybe not. In 2005, he had all those clutch hits and lost out to A-Rod (who probably did deserve the award). In 2006, he had much, much bigger numbers than Justin Morneau, but lost out. I think as a DH he will simply have to blow away the competition to win the MVP ... maybe it should be that way, I don't know.

17. Brian Roberts
Excitement score: 118

I should say that I ranked all these players since 2004 ... and since then Brian Roberts has hit more doubles than any player in the American League. I have no idea what this has to do with anything, but it surprised me.

16. Matt Holiday
Excitement score: 120

Does it make a player more or less exciting to be a brutal outfielder. ... I don't know if Holliday is really a brutal outfielder, but in the three games he played against Kansas City recently, he was definitely brutal. Every play was an adventure. So, by definition, that's makes him more exciting, right? I mean, adventures are exciting, aren't they?

Anyway, Holiday is a fabulous hitter. He's a fun hitter to watch too -- doesn't walk, hacks at everything, hits bad pitches for doubles, etc. In that ballpark, he's something else.

By the way, his teammate Todd Helton just missed the list. But he will be No. 1 on hit by the end of the year because, as I said last entry, he's hitting .400 this season.

15. Derek Jeter
Excitement score: 121

I think this is legit. Like him or loathe him, Jeter plays just a little bit bigger than anybody else on the field. They boo him in Kansas City, for instance. If you think hard about that, it really makes no logical sense. As far as I know, Jeter has never said a single bad thing about Kansas City. He's never gotten in any trouble, never done an unclassy thing that I know of and even if he's an overrated defensive shortstop, he still plays the game exactly the way you would want your son to play it. I guess they boo him because he has come to represent the New York Yankees -- and it's a birthright for Kansas Citians to hate New York and the Yankees.

That's what I mean by Jeter being a little bigger than anyone else. Nobody in Kansas City would boo Robinson Cano.

14. Vladimir Guerrero
Excitement score: 123

I love watching him hit. And why not?

Top batting average, right-handed hitters since World War II (min. 5,000 PA):
1. Vlad Guerrero, .325
2. Kirby Puckett, .318
3. Derek Jeter, .318
4. Roberto Clemente, .317
5. Nomar Garciaparra, .317
6. Manny Ramirez, .313
7. Edgar Martinez, .312
8. Jackie Robinson, .311
9. George Kell, .310
10. Mike Piazza, .309

13. Johnny Damon
Excitement score: 123

Johnny has the unique talent of being able to look like the very worst player who ever played Major League baseball -- I mean a guy who looks like he will NEVER get another hit, not ever -- and also the unique talent of getting so hot that you wonder if he will ever, ever, ever make another out. I don't believe I have ever seen anyone hotter in my life than Damon from July 13 to August 10, 2000.

In that stretch, Johnny hit .492 with 61 hits in 28 games. It was almost impossible to believe. In 12 of those 28 games, he got three hits or more. He would bloop one over the third baseman's head, then dunk a looper in front of the centerfield, then rocket a double down the first base line, then lay down a perfect bunt, then hit a chopper for an infield hit ... it was ludicrous, really.

That season, Damon ended up hitting .327. On May 25th, he was hitting .243. I don't think he's quite as make or break now as he used to be ... but he's still fun to watch. Except when he's throwing.

Quick interruption: The Royals lost tonight 9-1. It's their fifth straight loss, and four of those have been by seven runs or more. That's got to be some sort of team record. You know last week the Royals won eight of 10 games and gave people a little reason to get excited. Nobody knows how to spoil a party quite like the Royals.

12. Alfonso Soriano
Excitement score: 124

Soriano has been put on so many overrated lists that it has to be only a matter of time before the backlash begins and people start considering him underrated.

11. Alex Rodriguez
Excitement score: 124

Well, A-Rod has found a new way to tick off New York. How about getting off to a superhuman start so that everybody thinks you're going to hit 80 homers and drive in 200 runs? And then, of course, you fall off to a more normal pace just as the Yankees collapse around you. We can now project that A-Rod is about have the least appreciated 50-homer season in baseball history.

OK, several people have suggested that I start breaking up these entries in two ... that way I can actually get some sleep. So we will put up the Top 10 list in the next couple of days.

Friday, May 25, 2007

The Highest Peaks ...

Editor's note: Longest entry yet. This blog is going to be the end of me.

Several of you of emailed and asked me to name the guy who shoved his Baseball Writers' card in my face at my first Major League game. I thought long and hard about naming him (I actually had his name in the original version of the blog entry). He deserves to be named. But in the end I decided that I simply can't do it -- I'm just not a good whistle blower. I'd probably have been the tobbacco guy on 60 Minutes saying: "Oh there's no proof cigarettes are unhealthy."

I will tell you this: He's not Furman Bisher. And he no longer works in Atlanta.

I will offer one Furman Bisher story: We were at the Masters one year, and Jack Nicklaus was being interviewed, and someone asked a question and made some sort of reference to Ancient Rome or the Bible or something like that. Nicklaus without missing a beat said: "Well, I'm not old enough to remember Ancient Rome. What was it like Furman?"

OK, now for something really different: In the last entry we came up with a list of the greatest five-year pitching peaks in baseball history. So now, we offer the 25 greatest hitting peaks in baseball history.

Here are the rules:

1. We're talking about players since 1900. I realize that in this blog I really discriminate against the 19th Century and guys like Dan Brouthers. So it goes.

2. We're talking five-year peak -- five years consecutively -- except when war interrupts.

3. A few players had TWO good five year peaks in their careers. I'm only including their highest peak ... with one exception.

4. Once again, I'm not going to explain the homemade formula I use to rank these seasons because you will laugh at me and pick it to shreds. I'll tell you that once again I'm using 100 as a baseline. Willie McCovey from 1966-70 he hit .295 with 187 homers and a .997 OPS -- great peak and it scores exactly a 100 . ... Joe Morgan from 1973-77 (.303, 114 homers, 781 runs, 301 steals -- more steals than strikeouts! -- .940 OPS, two MVPs ... he also rates a 100 peak score.

5. I will tell you I that we're adding a little something extra to this contest -- as you all know first prize is a Cadillac El Dorado. Anybody want to see second prize? Second prize, set of steak knives. Third prize you're fired. ... Wait, I had a bad Alec Baldwin flashback there. Sorry. I did add a little something to the formula this time, a subjective category to give a little extra credit to players for playing great defense or playing in a bad hitters ballpark or some other winning quality while taking away a little credit for players who played awful defense (or in a couple of cases, none at all) or were clubhouse monsters. When I say a LITTLE credit, I mean it -- nobody in the Top 25 changed because of this additive. The order did change slightly.

OK, here we go:

25. Ralph Kiner (1947-51).
Key stats: 234 homers, 586 walks, 1.029 OPS.
Peak score: 105.


In 1947, the Pirates actually changed the shape of their park for two players -- Hank Greenberg (who was purchased for 75K) and Kiner. They moved in the left field fences in 30 feet. Greenberg was pretty much done by then -- in fact 1947 was his last season -- but he still hit 25 homers and walked more than 100 times in 125 games. Kiner, meanwhile, jumped from 23 homers in 1946 (that did lead the league) to 51. He would lead the league in homers for seven straight years.

The fence move was actually a stroke of genius. In that crazy-good hitters' park, the Pirates drew more than a million fans for the first time ever in 1947 and actually led the league in attendance in '48.

24. Manny Ramirez (1999-03)
Key stats: .331, 193 homers, 623 RBIs, 1.072 OPS.
Peak score: 105

I still, for the life of me, cannot figure out how MannyBeingManny did not win the 1999 MVP award. Everybody knows by now that was the year when Pedro got jobbed because two writer decided to take the rules into their own hands and left Pedro entirely off their MVP ballots. That's been rehashed. But once you take Pedro out of the running, how in the heck did MBM lose?

What do MVP voters care about? RBIs. It doesn't seem particularly fair all the time, but it is understandable: I think most writers would say that the hitting statistic which best describes VALUE to a team is the ribbie. You're driving in your teammate. You're helping the club. You're doing for others. The RBI!

Manny had 165 of them thar RBIs in 1999. One ... hundred ... and ... sixty ... five. That would be the most RBIs by any player in a season since 1938. What's more, he did it for a team that won 97 games. What's more, he hit .383 with runners in scoring position. What's more, he hit .500 with the bases loaded and hit two grand slams. What's more, he hit .375 with runners in scoring position and two outs. I mean, these are exactly the things MVP voters love.

Now, I'm not saying that Manny was robbed of the MVP award. He wasn't. PEDRO was robbed of the MVP award. What I'm saying is that it's almost impossible to believe MBM did not win. The kicker is: He didn't really come close to winning. Pudge finished first because he had one helluva year and MVP voters like rewarding catchers (except Joe Mauer). Pedro finished second because a couple of people apparently missed the memo that they had witnessed the greatest pitching season since Bob Gibson in '68. Roberto Alomar and MannyBeingManny finished tied for third.

23. Mel Ott (1934-38)
Key stats: .316 average, 595 RBIs, .424 OBP.
Peak score: 105


At 5-foot-9, Ott was the shortest man to hit 500 homers. He was the shortest to hit 450 homers and the shortest to hit 400. He was the shortest man to hit 390, 385, 380, -- lower Bob! Lower! -- 370, 365, 360. Yogi Berra was shorter. He hit 358 home runs. ... Ott also weighed 170 pounds -- he and Willie Mays are the only players to hit more than 300 home runs at that weight (the Toy Cannon, Jimmy Wynn, weighed 160 and hit 292 homers).

The point of all of this is: Ott was a small guy. He generated his power with that famous batting motion -- the one where he lifted his right foot high in the air and then used the weight shift to drive the ball. Many people have talked about how odd it was, but: Wouldn't you think someone else would try this? The style now, of course, is not to stride at all because the players are so much bigger and stronger and more powerful. But you would think some of the smaller guys who can't hit would at least try Ott's style. It's obvious no one in baseball history has ever used his size and weight better than Ott.

Addendum: Royals catcher John Buck is trying a new exaggerated stride this year. It's certainly not as pronounced as Ott's, but it he definitely lifts his leg pretty high. If you're a fantasy baseball owner wondering why in the heck a catcher in KC is hitting about .300 with eight homers, well, that might be why.

22. Duke Snider (1953-57)
Key stats: .311, 207 homers, 585 RBIs, 581 runs, 1.025 OPS.
Peak score: 105


Did you know: Duke Snider went to high school with former NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle? I wouldn't know this except my friend Michael MacCambridge was writing the NFL history book "America's Game," and we were together at the Super Bowl in San Diego, and he said, "I have to drive out and interview Duke Snider." I asked him why in the world he needed to talk to Duke Snider, and he told me that little tidbit. I'm still not sure it was worth the drive.

Now, I'll be the first one to say that all the corny "Wow, baseball was never better than in New York in the 1950s" talk makes me just a bit ill. New York is one of my three favorite cities on earth, but no group of people anywhere I've been can romanticize their past (and present) quite like New Yorkers. The sewers used to smell better. Times Square hookers used to look better. The quality of fake Rolexes used to be better. ... I remember the 1996 World Series, and I was reading the Daily News, and the front page headline was something like "Win it for Frank!" That was when Frank Torre had some sort of heart condition. Really, one of the two toughest papers in America's toughest city had "Win it for Frank" on their cover.

"Doesn't that make you sick?" Wally Matthews asked me. "This is New York City." At the time Wally was working for the New York Post. I nodded and agreed that it made me sick. Then I picked up the Post -- the front cover was a gigantic Yankees logo.

So yes, New Yorkers overdo it. But, you almost cannot overrate those New York centerfielders of the 1950s. I don't want to ruin it for you, but I'll let it slip that Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Duke Snider all made this Top 25 list. And they all make it during this general time period. In other words, you could make a good argument that the three greatest center fielders in baseball history -- we're talking the best at their very peak -- were all playing in New York City from 1953-58 (and Joe DiMaggio had just retired). Someone should write a book about that. Have there been any books on those three guys?

21. Hank Greenberg (1937-45, including war years)
Key stats: .323, 187 homers, 663 RBIs, 1.073 OPS.
Peak score: 106.


Well, we talked about it with Manny Ramirez. In 1937, Hank Greenberg drove in 183 RBIs, third all-time. He finished third in the MVP balloting. They gave it instead to his teammate Charlie Gehringer -- that was sort of Gehringer's "Color of Money" Oscar. Joe DiMaggio finished second in the balloting with his famous rookie year.

I love this: Greenberg is member of the National Jewish Sports Hall of Fame, the International Jewish Sports Hall of Fame and the Jewish American Hall of Fame. Kevin Youkilis, play hard.

20. Frank Thomas (1991-95)
Key stats: .323, 175 homers, .450 OBP.
Peak score: 106


I was on an All-Star Game shuttle bus with a fellow sportswriter and Frank Thomas. Well, Frank was sitting a few rows behind us. It was late at night ... probably close to 11 or midnight. The sportswriter was going on and on about how athletes should sign all autographs. He said it was just ridiculous that these guys who make millions and millions of dollars could not sign every single autograph -- so what if a few people were selling them in autograph shops (I think this was before eBay)? Are you going to punish little kids because of a few con-men and sharks? Just sign the autographs and be done with it. The sportswriter was on a roll.

Then the bus pulled up to the hotel. And there had to be, no exaggeration, a thousand people standing between the bus and the door, all of them with baseball cards and sharpies, all of them with that hungry, "Who is on that bus," look in their eyes.

Frank Thomas walked slowly to the bus exit, and then he turned around to us and said: "You guys just don't get it. The autographs never end. Never."

I'm not sure what the moral of the story is -- if there even is one -- except that things are almost always more complicated than we make them out to be.

19. Ken Griffey (1996-00)
Key stats: 249 homers, 685 RBIs, 4 gold gloves, 3 home run crowns.
Peak score: 106


When did he officially stop being known as Ken Griffey Jr.? ... I remember when Griffey won the MVP award in 1997, everybody made a big deal about how it was about time that the Kid -- the acknowledged best player in baseball -- finally won his award. But you know what? He never really came close to winning an MVP before 1997. And I'm not sure he ever had a particularly compelling case before 1997.

He finished second in the 1994 strike year -- and he had a terrific year, led the league in homers -- but that was the year Frank Thomas was sickeningly good. Big Hurt had a 1.210 OPS that year. Over the last 50 years, only Bonds, Williams and McGwire in the 70-home year had higher OPS years than Thomas in 1994.

In other years, Griffey never finished higher than fourth, and I'm not sure he ever really deserved to finish higher than fourth. He won the MVP in 1997, and everybody said "Finally." But he hasn't come close to winning the MVP award since. I'm not saying Griffey was overrated. He was an absolutely fabulous player -- hit for power, took his walks, played great defense, stole a few bases. I am saying this: For the guy most people considered the best player in baseball throughout the 1990s, he wasn't often the best player in any given year.

18. Todd Helton (2000-04)
Key stats: .349, 615 RBIs, 627 runs 1.093
OPS Peak score: 106


Could somebody hit .400 in today's game? I think so. It would take a few special qualities:

1. He would need to be somebody who hardly ever strikes out. The last two guys to make a real run at .400 -- George Brett and Tony Gwynn -- hardly struck out at all. Brett struck out 22 times in 1980. Gwynn struck out 19 times in 1994. You've got to put the ball in play.
2. He would need to walk a lot. Neither Gwynn nor Brett walked a great deal, but both had their at-bats artificially lowered -- Brett got hurt, and Gwynn's season ended with the strike. I think it would be very, very hard for anyone to hit .400 with more than 500 at-bats. Even Ted Williams in '41 only had 456 official at-bats (he walked 147 times).
3. He would need to play in a good-hitting ballpark with a massive outfield. Gwynn and Brett both played in big ballparks; they were both terrible home run parks, but that doesn't matter. The big outfields left a lot of open spaces, especially for guys who could hit to all fields.
4. He would need to hit to all fields.
5. He would need to be a slightly older player who can handle the immense media pressure that would collapse on a .400 hit candidate.

I think Todd Helton (if he's healthy) has all five qualities. He's about the right age (maybe a year or two old, but close enough), he doesn't strike out much (5th in the NL right now in K per at-bat), he walks, he hits the ball all over the field, and he has the .400-hitters dream ballpark. He's hitting .361 now, and he has always been an especially good summer hitter. I'm not predicting that Todd Helton will hit .400 but ... OK, what the hell? It's a blog. Maybe this will make me famous. I'm predicting that Todd Helton will hit .400.

17. Jason Giambi (1999-03)
Key stats: .311, 196 homers, 1.030 OPS.
Peak score: 107


What would have happened had Mark McGwire just admitted taking steroids in front of the congressional committee? What if he had explained that he just wanted to stay healthy after a few injury-plagued years? What would have happened if he had said, "Look, a lot of people were taking them, and it was more or less accepted, and I should have been stronger, I should have said no, but baseball is competitive, I'm competitive, and I wanted an edge." What if he then became an anti-steroid advocate, speaking out to kids about how it will wreck your body?

Many people would tell you that had McGwire done all that, people would have forgiven him by now. More, they would love him -- America loves a repentant sinner -- and he would definitively go into the Hall of Fame. He would be a hero again. Really.

You know, I'm not cynical about most stuff. But I'm pretty cynical about forgiveness talk. I remember for years everybody told Pete Rose: "Just admit you gambled on baseball. Just admit it. People will forgive you. That's your ticket to the Hall of Fame." Well, Pete is a street hustler, and I think he suspected that if he ever admitted to gambling on baseball people would NOT forgive him ... that's why he held out for so long. But at some point he realized his Hall of Fame case was going nowhere, and he supposed that he had nothing to lose. So he admitted gambling on baseball in his book. He admitted it in interviews. He signed a few baseball saying, "I'm sorry I bet on baseball," which were available in eBay.

What happened? Well, people did not forgive him. Quite the opposite. The fans who had supported him mostly left his side. The people who felt it was a sham that Rose was barred from the Hall of Fame mostly lost interest in the whole thing.

Now, Pete's signing autographs in Las Vegas and his Hall of Fame chances are about as dead as professional boxing. ... Of course, many people say that the reason they don't forgive Pete is because he did not REALLY apologize, he did not REALLY admit everything, he handled it BADLY, he was not GENUINE -- but what did they expect? Did they think he would wear a Scarlet G on his chest? He's Pete Rose. He played baseball with ferocity, he got more hits than anyone ever, he ran to first base on walks ... "genuine" was never really in his toolbox. This is how he does things. He's going to make a buck. He's going to do things on his terms. Besides, now we are trying to judge HOW people admit and apologize?

The truth, I think, is that people always ASSUME that America will forgive if you just come clean and admit what you did. I don't think it always works that way.

This all comes up because Jason Giambi just admitted taking steroids and he probably made the strongest statements by any player except maybe Jose Canseco or Ken Caminiti. He said: "I was wrong for doing that stuff. What we should have done a long time ago was stand up - players, ownership, everybody - and said: 'We made a mistake.' We should have apologized back then and made sure we had a rule in place and gone forward." That seems to reflect how most people feel. He seems pretty genuinely sorry.

So far, though, his statement has gotten him a meeting with the commissioner, a leaked report that he failed an amphetamines test and all sorts of rumors that he will be traded or his contract will be voided. I'm just not sure we're a particularly forgiving society at the moment when it comes to sluggers and steroids. I do believe we as a nation have forgiven Wynona Ryder for shoplifting. I know I have. I've had a crush on her since I was a kid.

16. Hank Aaron (1959-63)
Key stats: .323, 202 homers, 627 RBIs, .984 OPS
Peak score: 108


Remember that old TV show "Home Run Derby?" For a while there, they were replaying it on ESPN Classic pretty all the time, and frankly I wish they would again instead of showing the 1987 World Series of Poker every single freaking day with Mr. Kotter wearing short shorts and announcing that pocket aces is a good thing. You know I like poker as much as the next guy -- probably more than the next guy in fact -- but isn't this poker phase finally over? I mean, let's face it: In the end we're just watching people play cards. And we know what their cards are. You would think that the thrill would run out sooner or later.

ANYWAY, Home Run Derby was that awesome black and white television show from 1959. The show was hosted by the great Mark Scott (more on him in a minute) and before the home-run hitting began, Scott would explain that Home Run Derby was being played at a specially selected stadium (he never said it was Wrigley Field in LA) because it did not favor either right-handed hitters or left-handed hitters. He always made it sound like the Home Run Derby producers had spent weeks scouring the country in search of the one baseball stadium that would be precisely fair to batters on both sides of the plate. I guess it was better than saying that it was the stadium closest to the studio, and that the show had a $23 working budget.

-- We'll note here that Scott was right -- Wrigley Field LA was a bandbox for everybody. The Los Angeles Angels played there one year -- their first year -- and a rag-tag team of expansion veterans (Ken Hunt! Earl Averill! Big Klu! Steve Bilko!) finished second to the M&M Yankees with 189 home runs. They hit 122 of those at home. The Angels rag-tag team of expansion veteran pitchers (Art Fowler! Ken McBride! Eli Grba!) gave up more homers than any team in baseball -- 180 homers allowed, and 126 of those were at home.

We're coming back to Hank Aaron, I promise. Mark Scott, the Home Run Derby announcer, was an actor. He was, from what I can tell, a struggling actor -- though he did have three roles on Dragnet. He had uncredited roles in "The Kid From Left Field" (he was the announcer) and "The Harder They Fall" (he was a reporter). He also played "Man" on Celebrity Playhouse. It is not easy to play "Man." But he was so good, three years later he played "Man" in the TV show "The Millionaire." He also narrated "Killers From Space."

So, you could argue that Home Run Derby was a big break for Mark. And he was great on the show -- good voice, proper respect for the competition, friendly. His only real liability as an announcer I would say was that he seemed to have no prior knowledge about the game of baseball. Seriously, it often seemed like he had just arrived from some non-baseball playing country like Lithuania, only without the accent. Every show, he would introduce the players, call the action, ("there's a long fly ball and, yes, it's gone,") and do the most amazing interviews between innings.

Mark: "So Mickey, how do you hit all those home runs?"
Mickey: "Well, you swing hard, Mark."
Mark: "I'll bet you do. ... There's a long fly ball and, yes, it's gone. ... So you swing hard?"
Mickey: "You sure do, Mark."
(Silence)
Mark: "I'll bet it takes more than just swinging hard, though, and you are one of the best."
Mickey: "Thanks Mark."
(Silence)
Mark: "How hard do you swing Mickey?"
Mickey: "Pretty hard."
Mark: "I know you do."

Hank Aaron was the all-time king on Home Run Derby (I told you we would get back to him). He won six straight weeks and collected $13,000, which I would guess wasn't significantly less than he made during the season (in 1957 -- the only year I could find Aaron's salary -- he made $22,500). But the thing that was great was someone must have told Mark Scott that Aaron had amazingly strong wrists because for six consecutive episodes that was all he talked about. Every inning, he would say to the player he was interviewing: "Hank Aaron really has amazing wrists, doesn't he?" or "He really is a good hitter because of his wrists, isn't he?" And the player would always say, "You're right Mark, Hank has great wrists."

Bill James has suggested that Aaron might have developed those great wrists by hitting cross-handed throughout his early baseball life. I'm not sure if that's true, but it's a good theory ... and I wonder if maybe we should all teach our kids to hit cross-handed until they're like 12. ... Yep, if I was a hitting coach, I'd have kids lifting their legs like Mel Ott and hitting cross-handed like Hank Aaron. Maybe this is why I'm not a hitting coach.

15. Ty Cobb (1909-13)
Key stats: .396, 337 stolen bases, 1.018 OPS
Peak score: 109


I wonder how Ty Cobb might feel about being the designated jerk in the Hall of Fame. Here was undoubtedly baseball's most driven player, a guy who hit .400 three times in his career, a guy with more than 4,000 hits and almost 800 stolen bases and 11 batting crowns.

And how is he remembered? As the worst guy in the Hall of Fame. Any time someone wants to make a point about some shunned player who isn't in the Hall of Fame -- Joe Jackson, Pete Rose, Mark McGwire, Dick Allen -- they will first point out that the Hall is filled with bad guys, and they ALWAYS use Ty Cobb as Example No. 1. That's the lasting role for the Georgia Peach, baseball's all-time jerk, just as Rhode Island is always used in demeaning size example such as, "The new Taj Mahal Casino is roughly the size of Rhode Island" or "Israel is tiny, smaller even than Rhode Island" or "The par-5 17th hole is slightly longer than Rhode Island."

I've always loved Cobb's famous quote about hitting. The way I always heard it: Some interviewer asked an old Cobb what he would hit against modern pitchers. He said, "Oh about .290."
"Really?" the questioner asked.
"Oh yes," Cobb said. "Well, I am 72 years old."

So, I'd always heard it as a funny quote -- one that made Cobb seem human, lovable even. But in the movie "Cobb," the same scene went like so:

Man: "With all the great players playing ball today, how well do you think you would do against today's pitchers."
Cobb: "Well I figure against today's pitchers I'd hit about .290."
Man: .290? Well, that's amazing because you batted over .400 a whole bunch of times. Why do you think you'd hit only .290.
Cobb: "Well I'm 72 (bleeping) years old you ignorant son of a bitch."

For me, the story loses a bit of its charm in that telling.

14. Barry Bonds (1990-94)
Key stats: .310, 175 homers, 192 stolen bases, 1.035 OPS, 4 Gold Gloves.
Peak score: 110


I mentioned in the intro that I would only include each player once. Willie Mays actually had two five-year peaks that placed in the Top 25, and so did Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. But I'm including Bonds twice because Bonds was two different players.

Here, he was the young Bonds who hit homers, got on base, stole bases, played brilliant defense (except when Sid Bream was rounding third) ... I've sometimes wondered which Bonds was better, this Bonds or the later, two-hat-sizes-bigger Bonds who hit every other ball into the Bay. It's a lot like the question: Which Elvis was better, young hip-swinging Elvis or fat, cape-wearing Elvis? I really don't think there's much of an argument in Bonds case -- he clearly was more valuable later in his career. But I think he was a lot more fun to watch when he was young.

(Interestingly, it's the opposite in Elvis' case. He was clearly much better when he was young. But I think he was a lot more fun to watch at his Vegas, sweating-like-a-pig, singing "In the Ghetto" peak).

13. Willie Mays (1961-65)
Key stats: .308, 226 homers, 72 stolen bases, 613 runs, 590 RBIs, .994 OPS.
Peak score: 111


Mays actually had a similar -- though certainly not nearly as dramatic -- career shift as Bonds. Mays from 1954-58 (during that centerfield heyday) hit .328 with 192 homers, 141 steals and actually had a slightly higher OPS of 1.019. And, of course, he played otherworldly centerfield. That peak is among the Top 25 ever too.

But Mays in his 30s stopped stealing bases and started hitting for more power. He stole about half the bases but averaged 45 homers per season, drove in and scored more runs in a tougher offensive environment. For whatever reason, the older Mays ranks slightly better in my system. I don't know why. I don't even understand my system.

12. Albert Pujols (2002-06)
Key stats: .333, 213 homers, 213 doubles, 628 RBIs, 636 runs, 1.054 OPS.
Peak score: 112


Albert Pujols went to high school and college in Kansas City, and yet the Royals did not draft him. I've often wondered how much heat the Royals should take for that.

On the one hand, the draft is a crapshoot, especially in the later rounds. Nobody was high on Pujols, not even the Cardinals who waited until the 13th round to take him. I think the feeling on Pujols was that he had no defensive position and he had not hit against any real competition. Heck, as mentioned here before, he was not even first-team all-Metro in my own Kansas City Star. What nobody knew then (what nobody could know) was that Pujols was utterly driven to become the best player in the game, and that he would not stop until he had become a brilliant hitter, a Gold Glove first baseman, a terrific base runner and the guy who drives everyone around him to succeed. The Royals didn't see it, but nobody else did either. So I'm not sure you can single out the Royals just because he was in Kansas City at the time.

On the other hand, though, Pujols WAS playing in Kansas City, and it isn't like a great young baseball player can get lost in the Kansas City -- this isn't exactly California or Florida. Hell, I WAS getting calls about Pujols (though I never did see him) so you know the Royals were getting a million calls.

Also Pujols had to be something close to a finished product because he only played one year in the minor leagues. He crushed the ball right away. It wasn't like the Cardinals made him into a player. He came to his first spring training and in the first few days was so good he had already wowed Tony LaRussa and everyone else (I can remember St. Louis columnist Bernie Miklasz in early March that year telling me -- hey, your boy from Kansas City is really impressing people. He might make the club). He then had one of the great rookie years ever -- just two years after he was playing ball at Maple Woods Community College in Kansas City (I've heard that he did not strike out one time that year, though I find that hard to believe).

Point is, if a scout was watching Pujols, he probably should have seen something special. And you would think the Royals' scouts would have seen Pujols mroe than any other team.

All things considered, I'll say the Royals blew it.

11. Sammy Sosa (1998-02)
Key stats: .306, 292 homers. 705 RBIs, 1.046 OPS.
Peak score: 114

How about Sammy? He's got 10 homers already this year. He's just two shy of 600 now. It's kind of fun to watch him too -- he's sitting dead-red and swinging for the fences every swing. He's here for one reason and one reason only -- to hit long balls. Sosa's hitting .266 now, but I'll bet that average tumbles. The homers might keep flying, though, which is all right with me. It seems like in the 1980s when I was a kid, there used to be more a bunch of guys who were in the big leagues for one reason and one reason only -- to hit home runs. There was Dave Kingman, Rob Deer, Ron Kittle, well, let's take a look.

Most home runs with batting average .230 or less.

1. Dave Kingman, 1982: .204 average, 37 homers.
2. Kingman, 1986: .210, 35 homers
3. Tony Armas, 1983*: .218, 35 homers
4. Gorman Thomas, 1985: .215, 32 homers
5. Ron Kittle, 1984: .215, 32 homers
6. Jose Valentin, 2004: .216, 30 homers
7. Ken Harrelson, 1969: .221, 30 homers
8. Mark McGwire, 2001: .187, 29 homers
9. Jeff Burroughs, 1975: .226, 29 homers
10. Kingman, 1972: .225, 29 homers
11. Darryl Strawberry, 1989: .225, 29 homers
12. Steve Balboni, 1986*: .229, 29 homers

Honorable mention: Rob Deer, 1990 (.209, 27 homers); Gene Tenace, 1974 (.211, 26 homers), Rob Deer, 1991 (.179, 25 homers).

10. Joe DiMaggio (1937-45, including war years)
Key stats: .350, 169 homers, 691 RBIs, .420 OBP, 1.058 OPS.
Peak score: 114

He'll live in Baseball's Hall of Fame
He got there blow by blow
Our kids will tell their kids his name
Joltin' Joe DiMaggio

And now they speak in whispers low
Oh how they stopped our Joe
One night in Cleveland. Oh. Oh. Oh.
Goodbye streak DiMaggio.
-- lyrics to Joltin Joe DiMaggio. By Ben Homer and Alan Courtney.

Who's the newest guy in town
Go Joe Charboneau
Turns the ballpark upside down
Go Joe Charboneau
Who's the one to keep our hopes alive
straight from seventh to the pennant drive
Raise your glass, let out a cheer
For Cleveland's rookie of the year
-- lyrics to Super Joe Charboneau. By somebody or other.

Hey, both songs mention Cleveland.

9. Stan Musial (1948-52)
Key stats: .350, 156 homers, 200 doubles, .441 OBP, 1.058 OPS
Peak score: 115


I once wrote a column where I referred to Willie Mays as the "greatest living ballplayer." I wasn't really making a judgment -- I was using the title more for effect than anything else -- but I got a few emails from St. Louis people who wondered if I had forgotten Stan Musial.

I have to be brutally honest. I had forgotten him. I don't mean I forgot him in that particular case -- I still think Willie Mays is the greatest living player -- but when I think about the greatest players of all time, I often simply overlook Musial. I think a lot of people do. And it's a mistake. In his prime, Musial was about as good as anybody, ever. He's also the ultimate gentleman, a real role model. It's amazing that there have been so many books written recently about DiMaggio, Mantle, Koufax, Gehrig, Robinson, Ruth, Aaron, but I haven't seen any on Musial.

8. Mark McGwire (1995-99)
Key stats: .287, 284 homers, 620 RBIs, 1.140 OPS, 1 triple.
Peak score: 115


The McGwire pregame batting practice show in 1998 remains among the most amazing things I've ever seen in sports. First of all, people -- thousands and thousands of people -- would fill the stadium just to watch a guy take batting practice. That was amazing in itself. More amazing, though, I never saw him let people down that whole summer. He always hit huge home runs. Every day. It was always a great show.

I can't really think of any sports equivalent. I mean, people would not come out all around the country to watch Joe Montana throw bombs to uncovered receivers. Thousands of people would not come out all around the country to watch Michael Jordan shoot warm-up jump shots or to see Tiger Woods hit 340-yard drives on the driving range. But for one summer, McGwire needed only a bat, a bucket of balls and a BP pitcher to set off the imagination.

Best batting-practice hitters I ever saw:
1. Mark McGwire
2. Darryl Strawberry
3. Ken Griffey
4. Kevin Mitchell
5. Barry Bonds

7. Mickey Mantle (1954-58)
Key stats: .325, 192 homers, 630 runs, .451 OBP, 1.070 OPS.
Peak score: 120


OK, sure, here's one more story about me as a young reporter. I was an intern at The Charlotte Observer when Bob Costas brought a baseball All-Star team to Salisbury, N.C. for an exhibition. Costas had been named the National Sportscaster of the Year for like the third for fourth time -- they give out the award in Salisbury -- and he liked the old-fashioned baseball stadium they had (have?) at Catawba College.

So, he brought down a baseball team that included Jim Valvano, Robert Klein, Gymkata star Kurt Thomas, Chris Elliott and a few others I can't remember. He also brought down Mickey Mantle. I begged the paper to send me to the game, and since nobody else had any interest at all in going, they agreed. It was my very first "big" assignment.

It was big for me because I was getting to meet Costas, who was my absolute idol. I arrived at the Holiday Inn (on Holiday Inn Blvd.) about nine hours before the game -- I was there when Costas and Mantle arrived. Bob was impressed with my punctuality, if not my hero worshipping, and he was really nice to me. Then he said to me, "Hey, why don't you sit on the bench with us during the game."

How about that? I ended up sitting right next to Mickey Mantle, which would have been a better experience except The Mick was in a lot of pain that day. I don't know if it was his knees or the night before -- probably both -- but he just kind of sat there most of the game and groaned a lot. It was still a thrill for me, of course. I talked to Mantle a bit, talked to Costas a lot, and went back to the paper to write my first major front page story (it was a major front page story because the photographer had a classic photo of Costas and Mantle sitting next to each other in the dugout -- and I think both of them were yawning).

Anyway, that story is well known in the sportswriting community for being the single most overwritten story to appear in a newspaper since 1917. I think I may have called it a "sun dappled day." I might have had Costas hitting a "three-ply swat." I remember my ending was something like "And the great Mantle limped off the field."

It was not a great story, no.

But I was proud of it, of course. I had given it my all, that's for sure. I called Costas the next day at the hotel to thank him for giving me such great access, and he said, "Yeah, it was great meeting you and actually, I'd like to talk to you about that story, but I don't have time now, and I'll call you next week." I said, "Sure." I knew he wouldn't call the next week, but I was in the clouds. My hero liked me. He really liked me.

He did call the next week. I was stunned. I picked up the phone, we had a couple of seconds of talk, and then there was silence on the other end. I said, "Um, yeah, did you say you wanted to talk to me about that story?"

And he said: "Well, I wasn't going to say anything. But you asked me."

Those are not good words, in case you are wondering. For 20 minutes, my hero Bob Costas proceeded to absolutely rip me. He hated the story. He thought I missed the whole point. He thought I wasn't respectful enough to Mantle. He thought I had overwritten. He really hated that story. He said: "You seem like a nice kid but ..." and he started all over again.

When we hung up, I was a shattered mess. I was 20 years old. I had just been torn to shreds by the best sportscaster in America. My hero. I thought, "OK, well, what am I going to do with my life now?" Nothing really came to mind. I had a standing job moving boxes in the factory where my Dad worked. I had once worked for a mortgage company where I called people who were delinquent on their payments.

What to do? I wrote a letter to Bob Costas. I'm certain that if I saw that letter today, I would die in shame right on the spot -- but it was filled with all the passion, idealism and desperation of a 20-year-old kid who didn't really want to move boxes in a factory again. I wrote that I wanted to make it in this business someday.

Months later, I got a call from ... Bob Costas. He told me that my letter was on his refrigerator door. And many years later, Bob Costas was one of the people who wrote a blurb on the back of my book. Of course, Bob has a quote on the back of 93.7 percent of all sports books published in America. But that's OK.

6. Rogers Hornsby (1921-25)
Key stats: .402, 144 homers, 598 RBIs, 615 runs, .690 SLG, 1.164 OPS
Peak score: 122

Bill James made this point -- a lot of people confuse Honus Wagner and Rogers Hornsby. There really doesn't seem to a logical reason for this since Wagner was about as classy a player as there has ever been and Hornsby was, by most accounts, an astonishing jerk. Wagner played great shortstop, Hornsby was a below-average second baseman. Hornsby played out of the Deadball Era and hit for immense power. Wagner retired in 1917, having never hit more than 10 homers a year.

It would be like people confusing, say, Albert Belle and Tony Gwynn.

Hornsby was the second hitter to have an MVP award taken away by a pitcher (in 1913, Shoeless Joe hit .373, but that was the year Walter Johnson went 36-7 with a 1.14 ERA). In 1924, Hornsby was by far the best hitter in baseball -- it's one of the great seasons in baseball history. He hit .424 that year -- his 222 OPS+ led the league (as usual ... Hornsby led the league in OPS+ 11 of 12 years). But he lost the award to Dazzy Vance, who went 28-6 with a 21.6 ERA and 262 strikeouts. That same year, Eddie Collins also had his MVP season taken away by Walter Johnson.

Other hitting years not rewarded because of a pitcher:

1939: Johnny Mize (.349, 28, 108 ... lost to Bucky Walters)
1950: Stan Musial (.346, 28, 109 ... lost to Jim Konstanty)
1963: Hank Aaron (.319, 44, 130, 31 SB ... lost to Sandy Koufax)
1984: Kent Hrbek (.311, 27, 107 ... lost to Willie Hernandez)
1986: Don Mattingly (.352, 31, 113, 53 doubles ... lost to Roger Clemens)
1992: Kirby Puckett (.329, 19, 110, 210 hits ... lost to Dennis Eckersley)

5. Jimmie Foxx (1932-36)
Key stats: .348, 227 homers, 720 RBIs, 1.129 OPS.
Peak score: 123

You probably know that the Tom Hanks character Jimmy Duggan in the movie "A League Of Their Own" was loosely based on Jimmie Foxx.

"Mr. Harvey, I hit 487 home runs for your baseball club, three in the World Series, two in Game 4 alone."

Foxx actually hit 534 home runs. And he hit four homers in the World Series. He did not hit two in any one game. And he didn't do it for one team. Duggan led the league in home runs six times, Foxx four times.

Foxx did stop hitting when he was 32 -- perhaps because of his drinking -- and he did fall on hard times. He did manage the Fort Wayne Daisies in the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League. Most of the rest of the stuff in the movie was made up, including this classic exchange, one of the best-written in baseball movie history:

Harvey: "Let me be blunt. Are you still a fall-down drunk?"
Duggan: "Well, that is blunt. No sir, I have quit drinking."
Harvey: "You've seen the error of your ways."
Duggan: "No, I just can't afford it." (laughs).
Harvey: "That's funny Jimmy. Your drinking is funny. You're a young man Jimmy. You still could be playing. If you just would have laid off the booze."
Duggan: "It's not exactly like that. I hurt my knee."
Harvey: "You fell out of a hotel. That's how you hurt it."
Duggan: "There was a fire ..."
Harvey: "Which you started. Which I had to pay for."
Duggan: "Well, I was going to send you a thank you card, Mr. Harvey, but I wasn't allowed anything sharp to write with."

4. Lou Gehrig (1927-31)
Key stats: .354, 72 triples, 196 homers, 801 RBIs (yikes), 1.135 OPS
Peak score: 130


Gehrig from 1933-37 was just about as good -- those five years scored a 127 peak score. ... I love how Baseball Reference lists two nicknames for Gehrig. There's "The Iron Horse." And then there's "Biscuit Pants." Weird how Iron Horse has lasted longer.

Here's a strange thing about that 1927 Yankees team -- we're talking about the greatest offensive force baseball had ever seen, right? Nobody on that team got hit by more than three pitches all season long. Gehrig was the one guy in the lineup who was hit three times. Babe Ruth was not hit by a single pitch all year. Don't we think that's weird? The guy hit 60 homers. Don't you want to at least brush him back.

Most home run by players hit by zero pitches:
1. Babe Ruth, 1927, 60.
2. Jimmie Foxx, 1932, 58
3. Mickey Mantle, 1961, 54
4. Willie Mays, 1965, 52
5. Jimmy Foxx, 1938, 50
6. Babe Ruth, 1931, 46
7. Lou Gehrig, 1931, 46
8. Johnny Bench, 1970, 45
9. Hank Greenberg, 1946, 44
10. Hank Aaron, 1947, 44

And an unrelated list: Most home runs by players who were not intentionally walked.
1. Roger Maris, 1961, 61.
Hitting behind him: Mickey Mantle.
2. Alex Rodriguez, 1998, 48.
Hitting behind him: Ken Griffey.
3. Tony Armas, 1983, 36.
Hitting behind him: Lots of guys, mostly Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans.
4. Andruw Jones, 2000, 36.
Hitting behind him: Chipper Jones
5. Geronimo Berroa, 1996, 36.
Hitting behind him: Mark McGwire

3. Ted Williams (1941-48, including war years)
Key stats: .362, .508 OBP, 168 homers, 621 RBIs, 667 runs, 1.166 OPS.
Peak score: 137


Sportswriters will have arguments about everything, of course, and one of my favorite argument is: "What is the best sports magazine story every written?" I rank them like so:

(If you're here for the baseball blog, you might skip to the next guy):

1. John Updike, "Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu."
-- The classic line: "Gods do not answer letters."

2. Richard Ben Cramer, "What Do You Think of Ted Williams Now?"
-- Cramer is now working on a book on Alex Rodriguez.

3. Frank Deford, "The Boxer and the Blonde"
-- The story of Billy Conn -- the story that made me want to be a sportswriter.

4. Tom Wolfe. "The Last American Hero."
-- Junior Johnson, moonshine, the South and a sport that's now made-for-TV.

5. Gay Talese, "The Silent Season of a Hero."
-- Talese on DiMaggio with the amazing story about Marilyn Monroe returning from a performance for U.S. troops and gushing: "You never heard such cheers." "Yes I have," DiMaggio said.

6. Gary Smith, "Ali and His Entourage."
-- "What happened to the circus?" ... Picking one Gary Smith story is tough, but that's my favorite one.

7. Scott Raab, "Asphalt Junkie."
-- The story of Kevin Mackey, Cleveland State coach and crack addict. Raab also did one amazing story on Pete Rose. He's brilliant and, of course, a Cleveland guy. Raab, I mean. I can't believe I've never met him. Raab, I mean.

8. Steve Rushin, "Forty years."
-- I can't remember the name of it, but Steve wrote a retrospective when SI turned 40. It's absolutely brilliant. Then, Steve is brilliant. I can't think of a sportswriter who has made me laugh harder.

9. Rick Reilly on the Mexican wrestling priest.
-- I can't find the title for the article, but if you Google "Rick Reilly" and "wrestling priests" you get 122 hits. If you can find the story (it's in one of the old Best Sportswriting Books), it's good enough to change your life. Or at least get you through breakfast.

10. W.C. Heinz. The Ghost of the Gridiron.
-- Red Grange and the wild days of Pro Football.

I actually have a lot more, but I'll stop here. I've got to finish this blog.

2. Babe Ruth (1920-24)
Key stats: .370, 235 homers, 656 RBIs, 721 runs, .511 OBP, 1.288 OPS.
Peak score: 143


I was really curious to see who would score higher on my system, Ruth or Bonds. But for me the more interesting race was actually between Ruth from 1920-24, just out of the Deadball Era, and Ruth from 1926-30, when he played with Gehrig and played on those legendary Yankees teams (I'm sure you know this, but the Yankees were sort of viewed as chokers before 1927 -- they had played in four World Series and lost three of them).

As it turns out, my system ranks the younger Ruth as a more dominant player -- though we're just talking degrees here. The system rates Ruth from 1920-24 as the second greatest player ever and Ruth from 1926-30 as the third greatest.

As you probably know, in 1920 Ruth hit more home runs than every single other team in the American League. He hit 54 that year. George Sisler was second with 19.

But what I find interesting is that it took more than a decade for the American league catch up. The next year, Ruth his 59 home runs, only two American League teams hit more homers than he did. The next year, Ruth only played 110 games -- and Ken Williams actually led the league with 39 homers. Even so, Ruth still hit more than homers than one team.

Here's how Ruth did vs. AL teams:
1920: Hit 54 homers (more than any team in AL)
1921: Hit 59 homers (more than five teams)
1922: Hit 35 homers (more than one team)
1923: Hit 41 homers (more than two teams, tied one)
1924: Hit 46 homers (more than five teams)
1925: Hit 25 homers (fewer than all teams, but he missed 50 games)
1926: Hit 47 homers (more than five teams)
1927: Hit 60 homers (more than any team in AL)
1928: Hit 54 homers (more than four teams)
1929: Hit 46 homers (more than two teams, tied one)
1930: Hit 49 homers (more than one team)
1931: Hit 46 homers (more than two teams)
1932: Hit 41 homers (more than one team)
1933: Hit 34 homers (Finally ... fewer than all teams)

That's pretty impressive.

1. Barry Bonds (2000-04)
Key stats: .339, 258 homers, 544 RBIs, 615 runs, .535 OBP, 872 walks, 1.316 OPS.
Peak score: 145


OK, so why did Barry Bonds finish ahead of Babe Ruth? I have absolutely no idea. It's really about impossible to compare the two. Ruth, of course, played in a time when fewer runs were scored and when there were fewer teams. But he played when African Americans were barred from the game, and long before the infusion of Latin American players. Bonds played in a time when performance enhancing drugs were probably very common, but he also played when most games were played at night and he played in a lousy hitters' park. Ruth played when bats were tree trunks and baseballs were undoubtedly harder to drive than 18 wheelers. Bonds played in a time with specialty relievers and longer seasons.

For every one point, you can bring up a counterpoint. So in the end, I think, the numbers judge. Bonds in his prime had a higher OBP than Ruth, higher slugging percentage, walked more and hit more home runs. And also there's this: We have no idea how Babe Ruth, transplanted from 1920, would do in today's game. I suspect most of us believe he would be one helluva player. But you just don't know how his game from 90 years ago would play today.

I don't think that anyone doubts that Barry Bonds, placed in 1920, would have been dominant beyond words.

Monday, May 21, 2007

Hall of Fame predictions ... NL Edition

First update: 11 a.m. Monday morning.

I got the best email the other day. Last Sunday, I wrote what has sadly become an annual tradition: "The 'I Can't Believe The Royals Season Is Already Over And It's Only May' Column." If there is one thing you have to appreciate about the Royals -- they don't tease the fans with false hope.

Royals' April records
2007: 8-18
2006: 5-17
2005: 6-18
2004: 7-14
2003: 16-7*
*LOOK! HOPE! OK, check out the corresponding May record.

Royals' May records
2007: 9-10
2006: 8-21
2005: 8-19
2004: 10-17
2003: 10-19

Anyway, I wrote the column for Sunday -- and the Royals promptly went on by far their best stretch of the season. They won five of six games, including three of four from Oakland (that A's bullpen without Huston Street is horrendous). This may not sound like all that much if you live in, well, anywhere but Washington -- the Royals, after all, still have the worst record in the American League -- but here in KC that sort of winning stretch represents something of a minor miracle.


The nice little stretch inspired someone to write me an email that basically said this:
"Yeah, there you go: Every time you write something negative about Kansas City sports, the team goes out and shows you! What do you have to say now, smart guy? The Royals are on a roll, and maybe you should just quit your job. Your time has past. I know you won't have the guts or decency to quit but you're going to have to eat your words!"

I can't even begin to tell you how good that made me feel. An "I told you so" from a Royals fan. It is inspiring to know there is someone out there -- maybe it's only one person, but still -- who has real hope that the Royals are going to win this year. This is why I love sports. No amount of losing can break the real sports fan. (UPDATE: I just got a second email from a Royals fan in New York featuring the same sentiment. This is great!).


UPDATE: A brilliant reader named Keith Harvey just sent me the official Royals Renovations page from MLB.com. The page shows plans for how the Royals intend to improve Kauffman Stadium, including this fun little update of things they intend to have finished by Opening Day 2008:

Completed areas:
New Bullpens
Expanded dugout seating
Expanded crown seating
Expanded vomitories to field level concourse

Yeah, you read that right. Expanded vomitories. You know. For when David Riske pitches.

To be fair, "vomitory" is technically the correct word -- a vomitory is an architectural term according to dictionary.com and it refers to "an opening, as in a stadium or theater, permitting large numbers of people to enter or leave." However, since most people think a vomitorium was a room where the ancient Romans used to vomit (that's what I thought), the Royals may want to use a different word, you know, one that doesn't use the root "vomit." I don't know: How about "Expanded openings to permit large numbers of people to leave."

Actually, that wouldn't be a lot better, would it?

OK, on to the National League and Hall of Fame predictions. I'm sure you remember the rules, but frankly I've forgotten them already so I looked them up in the American League version.

The qualifications:
1. The player needs to be 30 or older (except in those cases where I think someone younger than 30 has a particularly interesting or compelling case).
2. Steroids and other performance enhancing drugs are not considered.
3. I'm trying to predict who WILL go into the Hall of Fame rather than who SHOULD go into the Hall of fame. Example: I think Alan Trammell should go into the Hall of Fame. I don't think he will.
4. I will update the list with reader suggestions because I will obviously forget some people -- I overlooked several in the American League list.

Players are divided into four categories:
Sure thing: This is a player who, if his career ended tomorrow, would (in my opinion) be elected into the Hall.
Interesting: Player in the Hall of Fame picture.

Surprising: A player who has put up numbers that may surprise you. One of my best friends in high school, Robert Sadoff, used to try and predict surprising Hall of Famers for his baseball card collection -- he was sort of the Warren Buffett of baseball cards. He was the first person I ever knew to talk about Bert Blyleven as a Hall of Famer (of course, there are many people who STILL don't see that), and I remember he was all over Rich Dotson, who had 70 victories before he was 26 years old. He bought up all those 1981 Dotson rookie cards ... that one kind of flopped on him. But that's what we're talking about here.
Worth a mention: Players who inspire some sort of long-winded thought from me.

New York Mets

Sure thing: Tom Glavine. I became a columnist in Augusta, Ga. in the summer of 1991, just when the Braves started to get good. I would drive the two or so hours to Atlanta at least three times a month to write about them. That was my first Major League experience as a writer, and to be honest it was a mixed experience. At least at the beginning.

I remember the first or second time I went to a game, I was sitting in the front row of an absolutely empty Fulton County Stadium press box. I mean, there couldn't have been more than 10 people in the whole box. The Braves had not caught on yet. The crowd was light too.

Anyway, I was sitting there watching the game, keeping score, doing baseball writer things (I hoped) -- nobody was sitting within 10 chairs of me -- and I must admit that I was feeling good about myself. Here I was, 24 years old, a sportswriter, Major League Baseball, a real pennant ace, oh man if only my Dad could see me now.

That's when security guard came up to me.
He said: "Young man, I'm afraid you're going to have to move."

I looked up at him with what I'm sure was a stunned and wounded look. I'm very easily embarrassed. I am the kind of person who would never sit in someone else's seat at the stadium, for instance. Sometimes my Dad would want us to move down at Municipal Stadium -- I mean, there were 80,000 seats and like 1,800 people in the stands -- and I would always say no because I was scared to death of sitting in someone's chair.

I looked at that security guard and I stuttered something like: "Um, I have a credential, I'm really a reporter, really. I don't think anyone's sitting here, I mean, nobody seemed to be sitting here, and ... and ... I really am a reporter, really, and I'm actually writing something from here, it's OK, they told me I could come to the game, and I really am a reporter."

The security guard (who, bless his heart, had this embarrassed look on his face) said gently: "Well, no, you just have to move back one row. There are lots of seats back there. You can't sit in the front row unless you're a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America."

Now I was really confused. Baseball Writers Association? What was that? I had a credential that seemed to allow me to sit there (I still have it). Nobody else was around. I was entirely baffled. And then I had an odd thought: Maybe I was already a Baseball Writers Association member and didn't know it. I had signed up for several writers associations -- I was a member of the golf writers association. I was a member of the Minor League Baseball Writers Association. Maybe this was the same thing. So I said something naive like, "I don't know if I'm a member or not."

At which point -- yes, here comes the big finish -- a sportswriter emerged from behind the security guard. I'm not going to name him because -- hell, I should name him. But I won't. He's still around. Anyway, he held his BBWAA card in his palm and put it up to my face -- the way detectives in movies do with their badges when they bust into a room. He shouted: "You need one of THESE to sit in the front row. One of THESE! Gotta have one of THESE!"

Apparently, I needed one of THOSE. That explained it. I moved back to the second row. I looked down at the two dozen empty seats in the front row. I felt smaller than Rickey Henderson's strike zone (that joke is brought to you by my hero, Jim Murray, who said Henderson's strike zone was smaller than Hitler's heart). I tried to follow the game, but I was humiliated. I silently promised myself that if I should ever become a reasonably successful sportswriter, I wouldn't be a dick.

After the game, as I walked through the clubhouse still flushed and embarrassed from the exchange. Tom Glavine was getting dressed. I figured at that point my day couldn't get much worse, and so I asked him if he had a minute, fully expecting the big blowoff. But as most of you know, Glavine is not that kind of guy. He talked to me for a half hour about all sorts of things, and I will always feel indebted to him for that. In some ways, my career started there. All sportswriters have a story about some athlete or manager who was nice to them at the beginning -- Bill James talks a lot about how Freddie Patek was the guy for him.

OK, now that that's off my chest: As a Hall of Famer, Glavine will win his 300th game in the next couple of months, which locks him up first ballot. I think he's actually been a first-ballot guy for three or four years. His World Series pitching (4-3, 2.47 ERA, 1-hitter to finish off Cleveland in 1995) helps his case too. Do you think Glavine's 1-hitter is remembered with the Larsen's perfect game, Morris' 10-inning shutout, Gibson's Game 7 and so on? I don't think so. And it should be. That Cleveland lineup was a murderer's row (probably more than figuratively). That lineup had Kenny Lofton, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Eddie Murray, Carlos Baerga (who was still a terrific hitter). Glavine threw eight innings and the only hit he allowed was to ... hey that's a good trivia question. We'll give you the answer next half inning. AFLAC. Ask about it at work.

Three hundred game winners with fewer than 3,000 strikeouts (since 1900):
1. Pete Alexander, 2,198
2. Eddie Plank, 2,246
3. Lefty Grove, 2,266
4. Early Wynn, 2,334
5. Christy Mathewson, 2,502
6. Tom Glavine, 2,512*
7. Warren Spahn, 2,583
* Glavine is still five victories short.

Sure thing: Pedro Martinez. In the American League version, I wrote a little bit about the Koufax Factor ... I wonder just how dominant somehow has to be over a short period of time to become an automatic Hall of Famer. Koufax was absolutely amazing for four years, and he's in the Hall of Fame because of it. Pedro was absolutely amazing for seven years.

So let's split the difference and go with five years. Who are the pitchers with the best five-year spans in baseball history? I'll take a stab at it:

(Editor's note: This might be a good time to ask the simple question: What the heck am I doing? Why am I sitting here looking for the best five-year spans in baseball history for a free blog? I'll have to get back to you on that one. Maybe it's because you are going to buy another copy of the book).

1. Pedro Martinez (1997-01).
Stats: 84-28, 2.18 ERA, 1022 IP, 718 hits, 1316 K, 228 walks.
Comment: He has the fewest innings and second-fewest victories among the Top 10, but he makes up for it with sheer dominance. He's the best I ever saw. In an era where ever single advantage was given to hitters -- tiny strike zone, smaller parks, weight training, better bats, you name it -- he was just about untouchable.

2. Lefty Grove (1928-32)
Stats: 128-33, 2.56 ERA, 1409 IP, 1297 hits, 925 Ks, 346 walks.
Comment: He was pitching in a high-scoring league and in a hitters' park, and he was fabulous, highlighted by his legendary 1931 season -- 31-4, 2.06 ERA, he won pitching's Triple Crown for the second straight year.

3. Greg Maddux (1994-98)
Stats: 87-32, 2.10 ERA, 1140 IP, 923 hits, 890 Ks, 147 walks.
Comment: My favorite ever great pitcher. He's the only guy I used to set the VCR to watch. It's funny I can remember arguing with a friend about how much fun it was to watch Maddux pitch in his prime -- he literally though Maddux was the most boring pitcher in baseball. I thought he was nuts, but you know what? Most people probably would agree with him.

4. Randy Johnson (1998-02)
Stats: 100-38, 2.63 ERA, 1274 IP, 1746 strikeouts, 374 walks.
Comment: There was actually a time when people wondered if Unit had enough time to put up legitimate career Hall of Fame numbers. When this streak began he was already 34, and he only had 124 career victories. But these five years -- which include four Cy Young Awards -- clinched his Hall of Fame election no matter what else happened.

5. Walter Johnson (1910-1914)
Stats: 147-67, 1.50 ERA, 1779 IP, 1332 hits, 1291 Ks, 334 walks.
Comment: You know what's amazing about Johnson's ridiculously good five years -- he gave up a TON of unearned runs. I realize it was a different game back then -- about a quarter of all runs scored were unearned then. Still, look:

Walter Johnson's unearned runs:
1910: 36
1911: 51(!)
1912: 32
1913: 12
1914: 17

My next blog might be an inside look at the unearned run. It's interesting how much it has changed. Johnson gave up almost 500 of them in his career. That's not, actually, a number that is out of line with what was happening during his time. But it might make you look at his remarkable 2.17 career ERA a bit differently.

6. Hal Newhouser (1944-48)
Stats: 118-56, 2.35 ERA, 1475 IP, 1235 H, 993 Ks, 519 walks.
Comment: A heart condition kept him out of World War II, and he won back-to-back MVP awards in '44 and '45 while the stars were away. Because of that, nobody seems exactly sure how to rank him ... though he easily could have won his THIRD straight MVP award in 1946 after everyone had returned (26-9, 1.94 ERA).

7. Pete Alexander (1915-20 ... includes time missed for World War I)
Stats: 139-61, 1.64 ERA, 1777 IP, 1446 H, 917 Ks, 280 walks.
Comment: Alexander had amazing control on the mound and no control of his life. I think that's weird. There are a lot of famous alcoholics in baseball, but I wonder how many of them were control pitchers. ... He gave up 113 unearned runs over those years.

8. Roger Clemens (1988-92)
Stats: 92-50, 2.62 ERA, 1263 IP, 1047 H, 1179 Ks, 336 walks.
Comment: Incredibly this stretch does not include Clemens MVP 1986 season (24-4, 2.48) or what was probably the best year of his career(1997 -- 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 226 ERA+).

9. Carl Hubbell (1932-36)
Stats: 111-53, 2.40 ERA, 1513 IP, 1381 H, 684 K, 230 walks.
Comment: I wrote a little story about Carl Hubbell and how he has been forgotten by his "hometown" of Carthage, MO (his family moved to Oklahoma when he was about 3). I got a very nice email from Hubbell's son, who said his father once came to Carthage and joked about how everything had changed.

10. Sandy Koufax (1962-66)
Stats: 111-34, 1.95 ERA, 1377 IP, 959 H, 1444 K, 316 walks.
Comment: I realize my system for ranking the best five-year peaks ever is badly flawed -- to be brutally honest with you, Koufax doesn't even rank 10th on the list. He's behind, among others, Kevin Brown (1996-00), Bob Feller (1939-47 including the war), Cy Young (1901-05). So I apologize for that. I've got to have Koufax on the list.

Final thought on this: All 10 of these pitchers are in the Hall of Fame or will be soon. A couple -- Koufax and Newhouser -- are in the Hall almost entirely because of their great five year spans. I believe Pedro, in context, was the best of them all. If he doesn't throw another pitch he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I cannot imagine who in his right mind would vote against him.


Update: I never did answer that AFLAC Trivia question. AFLAC. Ask about it at work. The player who got the one hit off of Tom Glavine in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series was none other than ... my old friend Tony Pena.

Interesting: Billy Wagner. I don't know that people THINK about Wagner as a Hall of Famer. But I included a chart in the AL version that showed the Top ERAs over the last 50 years (minimum 500 innings) and Billy Wagner was No. 1 on it. Here's another chart:

Most strikeouts per 9 ip (min. 500 ip)
1. Billy Wagner, 11.95
2. Armando Benitez, 10.96
3. Royals' closer Octavio Dotel (yikes!), 10.81
4. Randy Johnson, 10.77
5. Ugueth Urbina, 10.51

Almost a full strikeout per nine better than anyone. Ever. He hasn't helped himself in the postseason though (1-1, 3 saves, 18 hits in 10.3 innings, 8.71 ERA).

Interesting: Carlos Delgado. You know that Delgado has 400 homers but has only made the All-Star team twice? I just thought that was odd ... Delgado hasn't turned 35 yet, so he certainly is in good position to put up the Hall of Fame numbers. He's 90 homers short of 500. He could move way up the charts in RBIs and so on. But I don't sense much enthusiasm out there for his Hall of Fame case.

Interesting: Carlos Beltran. The best and most fun player I ever wrote about up close.

Barry Bonds through his first eight seasons:
.283, 222 homers, 801 runs, 679 RBIs, 280 SBs.

Bobby Bonds through his first eight seasons:
.273, 218 homers, 858 runs, 637 RBIs, 290 SBs.

Carlos Beltran through his first eight seasons:
.281, 202 homers, 820 runs, 761 RBIs, 226 SBs.

Worth a mention: Julio Franco. After the 1991 season, Franco was a very interesting Hall of Fame case. He had played middle infield positions, he was a .302 career hitter, he had more than 1,600 hits and he had just won his first batting crown. Nobody could have predicted then that he would play another SIXTEEN YEARS and would become the first 45-year-old man to hit .300 in the Major Leagues. ... That said, those spotty years in the middle of his career will prevent him from getting into the Hall. His 2,571 hits are not quite good enough and he did not have a great peak. Still, if I could wish anything for Franco it's for him to get enough hits here at the end to push his lifetime batting average up from .299 to .300. The odds are against him, but Julio DESERVES a .300 batting average.

Worth a mention: Moises Alou. The Alous have an astonishing knack for being ALMOST good enough to be in Hall of Fame consideration. It really is remarkable.

Felipe Alou: He has a lifetime .286 batting average, hit 200 homers, banged out more than 2,100 hits ... and falls just shy of being a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Matty Alou: Hit .307 for his career, won a batting title and got almost 1,800 hits despite not getting a full-time shot until he was 28 ... and falls shy of being a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Moises Alou: Has hit .301, has more than 2,000 hit and 300 homers, made six All-Star teams, was third in the MVP balloting twice ... and falls just shy of being serious a Hall of Fame candidate.


Surprising: Shawn Green. I'll tell you what's surprising ... the guy is only 34 years old. Doesn't it seem like Green has been around since the mid-30s? He's hitting the ball with the Mets again, and suddenly his Hall of Fame candidacy is back in play. He should pass 2,000 hits this year. ... Look at this Baseball Reference comps through age 33, you will see four Hall of Famers -- Reggie, Yaz, Winfield and Billy Williams. Shawn Green: Hall of Famer? It ain't impossible.

Atlanta Braves

Sure thing: John Smoltz. I guess there are some who think this is not yet decided, but we all saw the way Dennis Eckersley eased in. Smoltz was (and is) a much, much, much better starter than Eck. And I would say he was every bit as good a reliever too. And he's 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA in the postseason. I think he's got it locked up.

Interesting: Chipper Jones. I guess everything is perception. But while I'm stunned how far along Shawn Green is, I'm equally stunned by how much more work Chipper Jones has left to do. I'm really surprised he doesn't have 2,000 hits yet (he's almost there, 1990) or 400 homers (he has 369). I don't know why, but I expected more. He is a lifetime .305 hitter, though, and he's having a terrific year. But, I would say he still has some work to do.

Interesting: Andruw Jones. You know, he has almost as many homers at age 30 as Chipper at age 35 (348 to Chipper's 369). ... I've heard it from a lot of people in and around the game: They say Andruw Jones is the best defensive center fielder in baseball history. I'm not sure about that, but let's just say for a moment that it's true, that Andruw Jones is in fact the greatest defensive centerfielder ever. How much more does he have to do then to make the Hall of Fame? I would say the "acknowledged" best defensive players at every meaningful position on the field is already in the Hall of Fame:

First base: Nobody cares about first base defense. Otherwise, Keith Hernandez would get more consideration.
Second base: Bill Mazeroski. In the Hall of Fame. Shortstop: Ozzie Smith. In the Hall of Fame (as is Luis Aparicio, Phil Rizutto, etc).
Third base: Brooks Robinson. In the Hall of Fame.
Left field: Nobody cares about left field defense. But it's probably Barry Bonds anyway.
Center field: Probably Willie Mays. He's in.
Right field: Probably Roberto Clemente. He's in.
Catcher: Johnny Bench. In.
Pitcher: Nobody cares about pitching defense or Jim Kaat would be in.

Now, obviously only a few of those (Maz, Ozzie, Brooks) are in for their defense. But the point is, center field is a prime defensive position. If Andruw Jones is really the greatest ever AND he approaches 400 homers ... I'm not sure he is too far away from being a sure Hall of Famer.

Interesting: Tim Hudson. He has 124 wins, a great winning percentage, a good ERA (3.46) and he looks to be back. It is true, though, that he's almost 32, and he will probably not have an enormous win total when his career ends. He could use a Cy Young or two to help build his case.

Surprising: Edgar Renteria. I have to be honest: I almost never think about Edgar Renteria. So that's probably why I'm stunned that he's 31 years old, he's closing in on 2,000 hits, he's got a couple of gold gloves, he's been the starting shortstop on two World Series teams and all that. There's one Hall of Fame line that I don't think will change: I think if you get 3,000 hits, you will get in. Edgar Renteria has a real shot at 3,000 hits.

Philadelphia Phillies

Worth a mention: Jamie Moyer. When Moyer was 33 years old, he was 72-79 in his Major League career with a 4.44 ERA. He had played for six teams.

Most victories after age 33 (with losses):
1. Cy Young, 225-146. Hall of Famer.
2. Phil Niekro, 221-190. Hall of Famer.
3. Warren Spahn, 197-135. Hall of Famer.
4. Jack Quinn, 168-145. Pitched until he was 49.
5. Charlie Hough, 163-167.
6. Randy Johnson, 157-81. Soon to be HOF.
7. Gaylord Perry, 156-140. Hall of Famer.
7 (tie). Roger Clemens, 156-66. Soon to be HOF.
9. Tommy John, 154-115. Still on ballot.
10. Jamie Moyer, 147-88.
11. Nolan Ryan, 146-123. Hall of Famer.
12. Eddie Plank, 140-73. Hall of Famer.

Florida Marlins

None. I just noticed that two of the Marlins' pitchers who are 30 or older are Wes Obermueller and Nate Field ... a couple of old Royals. I always wonder where old Royals pitchers go. I should probably know more about 37-year-old Jason Wood. He first made it to the big leagues as a utility guy for Oakland in 1998 -- and he was 28 then. He picked up with Detroit the next year, then disappeared for seven years, reemerging with Florida last year. I admire that sort of determination.

Washington Nationals

None. Whew, that's a bad team.

Milwaukee Brewers

None. Bud Selig is going to go into the Hall though. Yes he will.

Houston Astros

Sure thing: Craig Biggio. He's less than a month away from 3,000 hits. ... Biggio is one of those rare players who will go into the Hall of Fame first ballot even though I don't think ANYBODY thought of him as a Hall of Famer when he was in his prime.

I think Paul Molitor was like that too. Until Molitor was 30 or so, he seemed like just another guy. He had the drug stain. He was hurt all the time. And then he became "Paul Molitor: Professional Hitter" and he stole bases, he cracked doubles, he hit .316 after he turned 30. And one day you looked up (or at least I did) and thought: "Holy cow, Paul Molitor is going to be in the Hall of Fame." OK, I didn't really say, "Holy cow."

Biggio sneaks up on you too. He was a much better young player than Molitor, but I just don't think people generally viewed him as much more than a scrappy second baseman who stole some bases and hit some doubles. Perception, again. Then one day you looked up, you saw a guy with 3,000 hits (just about), four Gold Gloves, a guy who led the league in runs scored twice, doubles three times, stolen bases once, a guy who will end his career in the Top 15 all-time in runs scored and doubles, a guy who this year will probably become the most hit player in baseball history (he's four shy of Hughie Jennings), and a player who is eighth all-time in the cl
assic "Power-Speed Number," which measures, you know, a player's power and speed.

Reader update: Based on some of the emails I've gotten, people seem to think I am somehow down on Biggio. I am not. I think he's one of the truly great players over the last 25 years -- one of the five best ever (in the mix with Morgan, Hornsby, Collins, Robinson, maybe Sandberg). I am trying here to guess at the pereception of the Hall of Fame voters. It's only a guess, but I know a lot of them. And I honestly do not believe most people saw Biggio as a Hall of Famer until late in his career (and frankly some still don't see it).

Because we love our readers: Roy Oswalt. He hasn't turned 30 yet, but a couple of people have emailed me about him, and G-Man wrote a couple of comments about him. So what the heck? He has 100 victories, a terrific ERA (3.04) and a good winning percentage. He has also finished Top 5 in the Cy Young voting four times and has a career ERA+ of 143. He's on his way, no doubt.

Power-Speed Number
1. Barry Bonds, 605.50
2. Rickey Henderson, 490.41
3. Willie Mays, 447.05
4. Bobby Bonds, 386.01
5. Joe Morgan, 385.90
6. Andre Dawson, 365.78
7. Hank Aaron, 364.22
8. Craig Biggio, 336.23
9. Sammy Sosa, 336.22
10. Reggie Jackson, 324.56

Chicago Cubs

Interesting: Alfonso Soriano. Speaking of Power-Speed. It's too early to make any real prediction about Soriano ... his career counting numbers are not that impressive because he didn't make it to the big leagues for good until he was 25. None of his comps through age 30 are in the Hall of Fame. But it's hard to find a comp for him ... there really haven't been too many like Soriano. his No. 1 comp is Lance Parrish who couldn't have been a more different player. No. 2 is Howard Johnson -- that's more like it.

Pittsburgh Pirates

None. Not only that, the Pirates don't even have a single guy over 30 in their starting lineup or in their rotation. I'm telling you: I like that Pirates team.

St. Louis Cardinals

Interesting: Scott Rolen. Seven gold gloves, 255 homers (at age 32), he has a chance to join Mike Schmidt as the best pure power and defense guy ever to play third base. ... He seems like a no BS guy on the field. You know how some guys just SEEM like they will do anything and everything to help the team win? Off the field, well, I don't know about that. They might whine, complain, moan, I just don't know. But on the field, the No BS guy seems like the type who makes all the plays, lives in the dirt, breaks up double plays, gives you great at-bats when you need them, plays through injuries and all that.

A No BS team
1B: Don Mattingly
2B: Bobby Grich
SS: Barry Larkin
3B: Scott Rolen (or Buddy Bell)
LF: Dusty Baker
CF: Jim Edmonds
RF: Paul O'Neil.
C: I originally left off catchers, because to me they're all no BS guys (except perhaps Andy Allanson) but a brilliant reader recommends Paul LoDuca and, as Cole Porter said: It's all right with me.

DH: Hal McRae.
P: Mike Mussina

Have to mention: Chris Carpenter. He had his first really good year when he was 29, so at 32 he only has 100 victories. And he's hurt again. It's an uphill climb.

Have to mention: Albert Pujols. Obviously, he's too young to really talk about seriously ... but nine of his 10 Baseball Reference comps through 26 are in the Hall of Fame or will be soon. The only exception, Hal Trosky, retired at 28 because of migraine headaches. Trosky tried to come back but was never the same. If Pujols retired tomorrow because of migraine headaches, he would not have anywhere near the necessary 10 years to be on the Hall of Fame ballot. But I think if they put him on the ballot, he would get elected.

Have to mention: Jim Edmonds. It doesn't look like his numbers will quite have the Hall of Fame distance, but he has been a terrific player, and he made the greatest catch I ever saw live -- (that diving, over-the-head catch he made in Kansas City).

Cincinnati Reds

Sure thing: Ken Griffey. Do people talk about Junior anymore? I cannot recall another athlete falling from the most popular athlete in sports to another face in the crowd quite the way Griffey has. Throughout the 1990s, he was undoubtedly the most popular, most beloved, most admired player in the game. But if you are someone who has been following baseball for only six or seven years, it's quite possible you have barely even HEARD of Griffey. Yes, part of the problem is that he has suffered and endless series of injuries. Part of the problem is that Barry Bonds became superhuman and other great young players emerged and Griffey sort of fell off.

I think a big part of the problem, oddly enough, is that he moved from Seattle to Cincinnati. You would think that the move to Cincinnati would actually help his exposure -- he moved away from the West Coast time slot, to his hometown, a city with amazing baseball tradition, so on and so forth. But for some reason, I think people always viewed Griffey as a Seattle Mariner -- I think his tie to that team and city was similar to Ripken in Baltimore, Gwynn in San Diego, Brett in Kansas City, Mattingly in New York. When he left Seattle -- more than perhaps any other -- I think he lost some of his aura and wonder. *(Correction: Originally I had Griffey leaving Seattle as a free agent, and he was actually traded, though he did force the trade).

Or maybe people just realize he's only averaging about 92 games played over the last six seasons.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Interesting: Nomar Garciaparra. He has three Hall of Fame comps on his list, but two of them (Mickey Cochrane and Bill Dickey) were catchers. ... He still has quite a bit of Hall of Fame work to do -- he only has 1,600 hits and 212 homers and he's about to turn 34. He seems to me like one of those guys who will fall short, like Tony Oliva. But you never know. ... Through his first five years, Nomar had a career .333 batting average, and I cannot remember seeing a guy who hit the ball HARDER than him. Everything just seemed like a rocket. He still has a .317 lifetime average.

Surprising: Jeff Kent. Well, surprising is not the right word. Stunning is the right word. Jeff Kent has about 75 more home runs than any other second baseman in baseball history. He will soon break Charlie Gehringer's record for most RBIs by a second baseman. He has 2,200 hits and still seems to be going -- he might have two or three more years left in him. He has an MVP award. Is Jeff Kent really going to the Hall of Fame? Really? ... He has a reputation as a terrible defensive second baseman. John Dewan, the guru of all things defense, says he's not as bad as people think.

Worth a mention: Luis Gonzalez. He will end up in that 2,500 hit range and somewhere short of 400 homers ... that's real Hall of Fame no-man's land.

-- Jim Rice. 2,452 hits. 382 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: Pretty good now. He seems to be getting support. But it has taken a long time.

-- Orlando Cepeda. 2,351 hits. 379 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: The writers never voted for him. He made it in through the Veteran's Committee door just as the Veteran's Committee was about to be disbanded.

-- Andres Galarraga. 2,333 hits. 399 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He does not have a real Hall of Fame shot.

-- Chili Davis. 2,380 hits, 360 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He got three Hall of Fame votes his one year on the ballot.

-- Steve Finley. 2,530 hits, 303 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: Bleak, I'm thinking.

-- Dwight Evans. 2,446 hits. 385 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He got absolutely no support, which I will admit surprises me because he also had the reputation as a great defensive outfielder.

-- Carlton Fisk. 2,356 hits, 376 homers.
Hall of Fame outlook: He got in, of course, because he's a catcher. But even he didn't go first ballot.

Honorable mention non Hall of Famers in this category: Dale Murphy (2111 hits, 398 homers), Dave Parker (2712 hits, 339 homers), Edgar Martinez (2,247 hits, 309 homers), Ellis Burks (2,107 hits, 352 homers), Reggie Smith (2020 hits, 314 homers), Ron Santo (2,254 hits, 342 homers), Joe Carter (2,184 hits, 396 homers), Gary Gaetti (2,280 hits, 360 homers), Graig Nettles (2,225 hits, 390 homers).

The few in the group who broke through: Chuck Klein, Johnny Mize, Yogi Berra, Tony Perez, Johnny Bench.

San Diego Padres

Sure thing: Greg Maddux. The last few years of Maddux have been strange to watch. After the 2002 season, Maddux was 273-152 with a 2.83 career ERA. Considering the time when he pitched, the four consecutive Cy Young Awards, the 13 consecutive Gold Gloves, the brilliant control ... he seemed like a real candidate for unanimous Hall of Fame consideration and also a potential place in baseball's all-time pitching rotation. ... Since then, he has gone 78-60 with a 3.85 ERA. What did that do? He won his 300th game but lifted his career ERA higher than 3.00. He got his 3,000th strikeout but really messed up his amazing winning percentage. He added to his legacy and took away from it.

But I suspect Maddux doesn't give a damn about any of that. He still loves pitching, so he pitches. Good for him. It's one of the reasons I love the guy.

Sure thing: Trevor Hoffman. I distinctly remember the first time I was in San Diego and witnessed that whole "Hell's Bells" act where the AC/DC bells ring and the crowd goes nuts and Hoffman comes into the game ... it was during the 1998 World Series, I think. If so it's the only thing from the 1998 World Series I remember. I thought it was pretty cool. ... Hoffman will get to 500 saves, which could set a relief pitcher standard. As I've written here before, nobody really knows what to do with relief pitchers and the Hall of Fame. But 500 saves seems like a nice round number and very difficult to reach -- well, nobody has reached it yet.

Surprising: David Wells. He's not going to the Hall of Fame. But ... he has more wins, fewer losses, more strikeouts, better ERA+ than Catfish Hunter. Not bad for a guy who didn't even have 50 wins when he turned 30.


Reader update: Brian Giles. I did not have Giles on the original list because, quite frankly, I don't see any Hall of Fame possibilities for him. He didn't get his first 500 at-bat season until he was 28, and he stopped hitting home runs when he was 32. That said, he certainly IS worth a mention -- he was really an amazing player in his prime. He hit for power then, didn't strike out, walked a ton, was in the Top five in OBP four times, and he did it in Pittsburgh when no one was watching. How about these Cleveland Indians BACKUPS, by the way?

-- Jeromy Burnitz (315 career homers)
-- Brian Giles (.407 lifetime OBP)
-- Richie Sexson (two 45 homer seasons)
-- Sean Casey (.301 lifetime BA, three-time All-Star)
-- Dave Roberts (214 stolen bases)

This has nothing to do with anything, but here is a list of really good players who actually played for the Indians for a time at the ends of their careers:

-- Steve Carlton (5-9, 5.37 ERA in 1987)
-- Phil Niekro (won 18 games over two seasons for the Tribe)
-- Lance Parrish (played 10 games in 1993)
-- Dave Winfield (played 46 games and hit two homers in 1995)
-- Kevin Mitchell (maybe not a great player but an awfully good one. Got 20 games in '97).
-- Dwight Gooden (actually pitched two years in Cleveland ... won 11 games)
-- Cecil Fielder (14 games in Cleveland to finish off a 319-homer career)
-- Harold Baines (22 RBIs in 28 games in 1999)
-- Mark Langston (absolutely no recollection of this ... won 1 game 1999)
-- Brady Anderson (34 games and 1 homer in 2002)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Sure thing: Randy Johnson. Will he get to 300 victories? He's 18 short now, and he kind of looks like he's running on fumes. I wonder how important 300 victories is to him. Will he come back next year to do it even if he has a lousy year? He never seemed like a guy who cared about those sort of things, but in the end how can he not care, right?

San Francisco Giants

Sure thing: Barry Bonds. Best young player I ever saw. Best old player I ever saw. I have lots of thoughts about Barry, but you know I'm about to hit the road with him, so I'll save some. Plus, I'm beginning to see the finish line here.


Interesting: Omar Vizquel. There are people I respect -- Bill James being one of them -- who think Vizquel was wildly overrated defensively. I think it's possible because Vizquel was one of those players who made every single play look absolutely beautiful. People who have that natural grace and ability make even the routine look like art are often overrated. Darryl Strawberry had such a beautiful swing, looked so good hitting the ball (and striking out), that people probably saw him better than he was. Sanders was still pretty darned good, and so is Vizquel. He has 2,500 hits and 11 Gold Gloves and countless barehanded plays. I think he will get in.

Surprising: Ray Durham. Well, I'm surprised ... the guy has four Hall of Fame Comps on his list, including Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg and Paul Molitor. He will be 35 at the end of the season and will probably have 2,000 hits. I don't think he's quite a Hall of Famer, but if he's a good old player, it's not impossible.

Colorado Rockies

Interesting: Todd Helton. How are the voters going to view Coors Field? It's a tough question. Helton is a .334 lifetime hitter. His 2000 season (.372, 42, 147) is one of the best in baseball history. His .592 career slugging percentage is ninth all-time. ... And yet, does anyone believe it? Look: His career OPS is 7th all-time. SEVENTH! ALL-TIME! Right between Jimmie Foxx and Hank Greenberg. But his ADJUSTED OPS+ is 50th all-time. Right between Bill Joyce and Mike Donlin. ... I wonder if Helton will need to go to another team and another park and put up some numbers just to get people to take him seriously. I don't know. He looks like he's hitting again -- even if not with quite the same power -- and so at some point his career numbers might be so ridiculously good that he will overpower the light air in Colorado.

Surprising: Steve Finley. See: Gonzalez, Luis. He's in that 2,500-hit, fewer than 400-homer club. He does add five Gold Gloves and more than 300 steals to the case. I don't think many view him as a Hall of Famer ... but he has a case.