For more than a year now, I've been promising to write a column for Rich Lederer's tremendous site Baseball Analysts. I still have not done it. This is because of a series of comical coincidences -- really. I would start writing a column and then my computer would blow up. I would get a new computer and starting another column for Rich and then my dog would unplug the machine. This is particularly troubling because we don't have a dog.
The point is that Rich is such a good guy that when I asked HIM to write a preview for this site, he did it in something like 23 minutes. You might know Rich from his impassioned pleas to get Bert Blyleven inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Editor's note: The latest column I intended to write for Rich - but have not yet - involves a long and bizarre argument I had with a fellow sportswriter on the Hall of Fame merits of Blyleven vs. Jack Morris. It was pointed out somewhere in there that Blyleven had 33 more victories, 1,200 more strikeouts, 32 more shutouts, 67 more complete games, fewer walks despite many more innings, a much lower ERA -- 3.31 to 3.90 -- and much better ERA+, 118 vs. 105. Blyleven also a considerably better postseason ERA and a better World Series ERA. I realize these are "statistics" and all, but they seem fairly conclusive to me. Instead, the conversation took an odd turn when he pointed out rather loudly that Morris pitched Game 1 of the World Series for three different teams. He did not see this as a statistical oddity but instead as a Go Directly To Hall of Fame card. Do no pass Go. Do not collect $200. Do not mind the Bert Blyleven.
Rich is the son of an excellent sportswriter and a terrific writer himself. He's also a wonderful guy, and I will get that column written for him someday. Really.
First, 1-5, rank the NL West (adding a sentence on each team if you like).
1. Dodgers: The division is up for grabs but somebody has to win it.
2. Padres: They've won it two years in a row.
3. Diamondbacks: Moving in the right direction.
4. Rockies: Farm system is loaded.
5. Giants: Older and wiser, but certainly not stronger.
Who do you think is the best everyday player in the division?
Rafael Furcal. Can that be? Wow, this division really is weak.
Luis Gonzalez. A Dodger. Does this make sense to anybody?
Yes, it makes a lot of sense to Gonzalez and his banker. For the life of me, I don't understand the reluctance on the part of so many GMs to give their young players a chance. I'm not a big fan of mediocrity, and that's all you're gonna get with someone like Gonzalez at this point in his career.
True or false: Bud Selig will be in the stands the day Barry Bonds breaks the home-run record.
False. Bud Selig will be alphabetizing his pantry that evening.
Who do you think is the best starting pitcher in the division?
Brandon Webb or Jake Peavy. Pick your poison. Of course, Webb has a Cy Young Award on his mantle at home and Peavy doesn't. Brandon is an extreme groundball pitcher who has really improved his command the past two years. Jake is a strikeout artist and led the NL in ERA in 2004. I'll take two of each.
True or False: The Big Unit is big-time done.
False. The Big Unit will never again be what he once was, but I think he can still pitch. He's not as good as his 17-11 record last year, nor as bad as his 5.00 ERA. Although Johnson's fastball now sits in the low-90s and the slider has flattened out a bit, I believe the 43-year-old lefty (back surgery and all) can win 13 games and post an ERA just north of 4.
Who do you think is the best closer in the division?
Jonathan Broxton. Oh, wait, you mean actual closers? Trevor Hoffman.
Who do you think is the best manager in the division?
Bruce Bochy is the "chalk" answer. But I'm intrigued by Bud Black despite the fact that he has never managed a game in the majors. That said, I'm rooting for Clint Hurdle to do well because I'm hopeful of finding a sucker who might be interested in buying a dozen or so rookie cards from me.
You named your son, Joseph William -- Joe Willie -- and you're on the record saying that Namath was your hero growing up. What was it that drew you to him?
I was an impressionable 13-year-old kid when Namath beat the Colts in Super Bowl III after guaranteeing a victory despite being a 17-point underdog. Broadway Joe was one cool dude. I've always been attracted to players with a bit of charisma or flair. Pistol Pete is my all-time favorite basketball player. Jerry West was great, but I liked Elgin Baylor even better. You can have Jack Nicklaus, I'll take Arnold Palmer. But Namath, yeah, he's number one. What can I say? I know my son is thankful that my favorite player wasn't another QB by the name of Yelberton Abraham Tittle.
You've written beautifully about your father, an old sportswriter, and your relationship with him. Buck O'Neil used to talk about how there were more fathers and sons who have played Major League baseball than any other sport. I haven't done the numbers, but I would bet that's true. Why do you think that is?
That's a good question. I know that there have been more than 100 father-son combos in Major League Baseball. As to why baseball has had more than other sports, I can think of two reasons off the top of my head. Baseball has the longest history, and it has always had a greater number of players performing at the big league level than any sport other than football. So, in terms of the pure math involved, the odds favor baseball. But maybe there is another thing working in its favor. Baseball is more of a "learned" skill than the others. As a result, it's a lot easier for a father to teach a son how to catch, throw, and hit a baseball than it is to teach him to run fast, jump high, etc. Lastly, I would argue that the pace of the game also lends itself to fathers and sons sharing it, whether as players, fans, or both.
Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Randy Wolf ... hey, if this was 2003, that would be one heckuva foursome (at least in won-loss record -- they were a combined 64-32 that year). What's it worth in 2007?
About $42 million. Well, that may not be what they are worth but that's how much they'll cost the Dodgers this year. Brad Penny is the key here. The big right-hander needs to pitch more like he did in the first half (10-2, 2.91) than the second half (6-7, 6.25). There's a reason why he was the NL's starting pitcher in the All-Star game last summer. Penny was pumped up and was hitting 97, 98, and 99 on the gun. If healthy, he's a very solid #3. Schmidt is a legit ace and Lowe is a strong 2. I can't really fault Ned Colletti for taking a chance on Wolf for $8 million. That seems like a low-risk gamble to me. Add in Chad Billingsley or Hong-Chih Kuo as the fifth starter, and this is a pretty good rotation.
Greg Maddux. Why?
Why not? Sure, Maddux is now 12 years removed from winning four straight Cy Youngs, but he throws strikes and can still get batters out. Just don't let him throw more than 80 pitches. Three times through the lineup, max, because he's not apt to fool many hitters the fourth time around. I think he will be a good fit in that ballpark in San Diego.
True or false: Nomar Garciaparra will (at least) repeat his 2006 performance.
If we're talking about games played (122), then the answer is "true." However, if we're talking about performance, the answer is "false." He will not hit .300 or slug .500 this year, so help me James Loney.
OK, let's play a word association game. I'll say a word, and you say the first thing that comes to mind. The word is, hmm, let me think of a good one ... BLYLEVEN.
HALL OF FAMER.
The Rockies have become a very trendy team in the preseason, and I will admit that I'm a bit leery about trendy teams ever since Sports Illustrated put the Cleveland Indians on the cover in 1987 (and the Tribe went on to lose 100 games). You buying the hype?
Nah. At least not this year. Is Aaron Cook really the ace of that staff? I don't need to go on, do I?
What if someone told you many years ago that you would be the author of an ultra-popular baseball blog (assuming they could have explained what a "blog" was). Would you have believed them?
Well, I wouldn't believe them if they told me that now. I'm having fun. It's been a good outlet for me. It allows me the opportunity to combine my love for baseball, writing, and stats in a public forum that was never really available before. I've met dozens of great guys from coast to coast and even a few in places like Kansas City.
True or false: Todd Helton still has some good years left.
Hmmm . . . Good, yes. Great, no. Therefore, I guess my answer is "true." Helton is definitely on the backside of his career. His contract is a real albatross for the Rockies, but he will be traded at some point. It's just a matter of Colorado's ownership deciding on how much money they want to eat.
There are people out there who like Khalil Greene. I'm not necessarily one of those people -- I see a guy who doesn't get on base, doesn't stay healthy, doesn't seem to get to anything defensively and can't run. And yet, there are more "Greene" jerseys in San Diego than LaDainian Tomlinson jerseys. Straighten me out. Am I missing something.
Yes. The blond hair. Take a closer look, it's women wearing those jerseys. But, in fairness to Greene, he really isn't half bad. His advanced defensive metrics were actually pretty good last year and his offensive production has always been hampered by playing home games at Petco Park (.232/.301/.353 vs. .277/.341/.513 on the road). Greene's not the best shortstop in the league, but he's far from being the worst.
It looks as if the Giants will not start a single player under 30. Most of them -- Ray Durham? Omar Vizquel? Rich Aurilia? Dave Roberts? Barry? -- started their careers when the Dodgers were in Brooklyn. Is this some shrewd Moneyball maneuver to take advantage of market inequities by playing really old guys?
Hey, don't forget Ryan Klesko. The Giants signed the 35-year-old in December and the average age of the team went down. Look, there is nothing "shrewd" going on here. The Giants are on a treadmill, so to speak. For years, the organization has tried to win with an aging Barry Bonds and a bunch of 30-something doo opps while giving away high-draft picks and basically ignoring its farm system. Guess what? It's all coming home to roost now. If the Giants were a stock, I'd "short" them.
This is really a bad division, isn't it?
Yeah, it really is. There is some hope though. The NL Central was the worst division in baseball last year, yet the 83-78 Cardinals won the World Series. So you never know.
Your Dad was really one heck of a sportswriter. How aware of that were you when you were a kid, and how much do you think that affected your own love of sports?
Thanks, Joe. My Dad was a sportswriter before I was born. As such, sports have been a part of my life from day one. I can't even fathom a life without a heavy dose of sports, especially baseball. I guess you could say it's in my blood. Dad covered the Dodgers from their first year in Los Angeles in 1958 through 1968 and was Director of Public Relations and Promotions with the California Angels for the next decade. I like to call them the Koufax and Ryan years. If my brothers and I weren't playing baseball, we were at the Coliseum, Dodger Stadium, or Anaheim Stadium watching baseball. We were all very fortunate. Great times, great memories.
