All Star -- AL Version
I’ve never understood the question that comes up every year around the All-Star Game. The question is, of course, “Why do people park in a driveway but drive on a parkway?” Huh? That’s nutty! You know, I saw a sign the other day that said, “No Dogs Allowed Except Seeing Eye Dogs.” Who is that sign for anyway? Boing! And why do they call it Grape Nuts? I open it up, no grapes, no nuts … hey, I’m here all week. Why do those airplane people always tell us go get on the plane? Uh uh, lady, I’m getting in the plane! Please tip your waitresses; they’re working hard for you. Hey, if a guy’s undisputed heavyweight champion of the world, why’s he still fighting? Hey-ho!
OK, sorry, lost my mind for a minute there, went all Shecky Greene on you. It happens occasionally when the medication wears off. For copywright purposes, I believe those jokes belong to (a) public domain; (b) David Brenner; (c) Jerry Seinfeld; (d) George Carlin and (e) ibid.
No, the question I’m talking about is this: “Did the fans choose the right players for the All-Star Game?” Every year, same thing, this question leads to huge talk radio show arguments. Every year, it’s an enormous Internet discussion. And, it is a state law in 42 or 43 states that newspaper columnists must discuss how right or wrong the fans are in their voting. FYI: There are four types of columns to be written on the subject.
1. The fans are morons.
2. The fans are wiser than you think.
3. The system has to be changed.
4. The system is perfect just as it is.
Now, I understand (from experience) that these are easy columns to write, and believe me I’m wholeheartedly in favor of easy columns. I believe, for instance, that Microsoft or some other computer company (such as, uh, Microsoft?) should invent the “columnist emergency alert button.” Any time a columnist runs into extreme writer’s block or a good drink special (“I’ve fallen and I can’t come up with a good lead,”), he/she should be able to hit the button and, within minutes, get an emergency call from Bob Knight, Peyton Manning, Charles Barkley, George Steinbrenner, Shaq or Curt Schilling.
Columnist: Curt, thanks for calling, I need help and fast. Column is due in 45 minutes and I’ve got nothing. Can you say something controversial?
Schilling: Yeah, I’ve only got a minute – Dan LeBatard is buzzing in from Miami. What do you need? You want something about America or about the All-Star Game or Barry Bonds? What?
(I kid Dan because I love the guy. Remind me some blog to tell you the story about how he sent me to a crazy Italian restaurant Super Bowl week. I’d do it here, but I’m trying to cut down the size of these blogs. I’m already failing miserably).
ANYWAY, while I appreciate the relative ease of writing an All-Star column – and reserve the columnist’s God given right to write it next week if I can’t think of anything else – I’ve never really gotten the point. I guess I’ve always thought that the All Star Game is FOR the fans, which means, by definition, that they really cannot BE WRONG ABOUT WHAT THEY WANT.
Am I wrong about this? The player who wins the voting at each position is the player that most fans (or at least the most passionate fans) want to see, right? The player may or may not be deserving by other standards – maybe he didn’t have a great first half, maybe he is injured, maybe he’s Angel Berroa, maybe he is not as good a player as someone else – but it seems to me the only real qualification to be an All-Star Game starter is that more fans want to see you than anyone else. So whoever the fans choose is the right answer, right?
I mean, let’s say there’s a Rob Deer like guy who hits .134 with no walks and plays awful defense, but he hits 65 homers in a season – and all of them are tremendous blasts. That guy certainly isn’t the best player – but could you blame the fans for wanting to see him? Are they WRONG for voting for him?
How about a real scenario: Take the Albert Pujols vs. Prince Fielder. I’ve read several columns about which one should start in the game. Their season totals up to now seem to point toward Fielder, I guess.
Fielder: .283, 27, 62. He has a .374 OBP, .629 SLG, and has been (perhaps) the biggest key to Milwaukee’s rush to first place in the National League Central.
Pujols: .300, 16, 48. He has a .399 OBP, .530 SLG, good stuff, but he has not been quite as good as in years past. He has even been caught four of the five times he’s attempted to steal too, which is a little thing, but I think it represents that Pujols is just not quite on his game. The Cardinals are playing pretty bad baseball and even though nobody thinks that’s Pujols fault, he hasn’t prevented it either.
So there you go. Advantage: Fielder.
Of course there are those who say the All-Star Game should not just be about what a guy has done the first three months of the season. It should be about the player – and it’s pretty clear that Albert Pujols is a better baseball player than Prince Fielder. Nobody in baseball would take Prince Fielder over Albert Pujols in a draft. No general manager with the possible exception of Jim Bowden would trade Albert Pujols for Prince Fielder. If the All-Star Game is about quality, pure and simple, then Pujols seems like the better choice.
And it makes for an interesting discussion, I guess, but I don’t think the All-Star Game is about either of those things. It’s about which player you as a fan would rather see start in the All-Star Game. If enough fans decided they would rather not see Fielder or Pujols, if they decided they would rather see Ryan Shealy start because they think it would be funny to see him strike out against Jake Peavy, hey, it’s the fans’ game.
The Ryan Shealy scenario, I realize, is pretty unlikely. Well, the part about him striking out against Jake Peavy is quite likely.
Point is: I just don’t see how anyone can get all that worked up over the fans’ All-Star choices. That said: Getting worked up over Ozzie Guillen taking Mark Redman as the Royals lone All-Star representative – yes, that’s worth writing a column.
* * *
OK, now forget all that I said. Here is my American League All-Star ballot. NL tomorrow.
First base: Justin Morneau. I know some All-Star heads are all fired up about Carlos Peña’s great start and all. Come on. He’s Carlos Peña. You really think this is going to last? I’ll take Morneau because I don’t want to wake up at the end of the year and say, “Did I REALLY vote Carlos Peña for the All-Star Game?”
Second base: Placido Polanco. Brian Roberts is probably having the better year, and he’s a great player. But I punched in Polanco because I think he’s vastly underrated. He does a lot of the same stuff that Roberts does (minus the stolen bases), and I think Polanco’s a pretty fun player to watch. He almost never strikes out, he’s hitting .316 since joining the Tigers in 2005, and he always seems to be in the right place on defense.
Shortstop: Carlos Guillen. There is something about that Detroit middle infield that people overlook. Alan Trammell can’t get any traction for the Hall of Fame; Sweet Lou Whitaker couldn’t even stay on the ballot. I mentioned Polanco. And what about Carlos Guillen? Everybody loves Derek Jeter for what he can do offensively and for the various sultry models he has dated. But compare their numbers from 2004 to now:
Carlos Guillen: .321/.386/.518. Hit 111 doubles, 23 triples, 56 homers, stole 39 bases.
Derek Jeter: .319/,.391/.470. Hit 129 doubles, 12 triples, 61 homers, stole 78 bases.
Doesn’t that surprise you? I was shocked. It’s pretty much a wash. Jeter’s slight advantage in counting numbers comes from Guillen being injured for much of the 2005 season. And Guillen is probably a better defensive shortstop no matter what the Gold Glove voters say.
Third base: Alex Rodriguez. Slam dunk. And has anyone noticed, by the way, that it has been three years since Eric Chavez has been any good at all? He keeps winning Gold Gloves (the last couple have been pretty questionable, probably) and he will give you 20-plus homers and everybody keeps talking about him like he’s a superstar. But is he? What happened to the Chavez who hit .275-.280, walked a bit, gave you 30 homer, 40 double power and played third base like Graig Nettles? The guy Billy Beane was ready to crown as the best young player ever? He has a .297 OBP this year, a 94 OPS+ and is striking out more than twice as often as he walks. Have the injuries and wear and tear drained him?
Outfield: Magglio Ordonez, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki. I’ve had a chance to watch Vlady play the last couple of days against the Royals, and it just reminded me again how amazing this guy really is. I don’t think anybody hits the ball harder than he does these days. Vlad hit a line drive to center field that probably never got more than 15 feet off the ground, and it was hit so hard that it went right over the head of centerfielder David DeJesus, who was playing about four steps in front of the wall.
Would Ichiro have a shot a .400 at Fenway? My buddy Vac brought up this possibility in our interview the other day, and I tended to agree with him without looking up the numbers. But I’ve since looked up the numbers – Ichiro is hitting .266 at Fenway, by far his lowest batting average in any park where he’s had 100-plus plate appearances. I don’t know why this is or if it’s a fluke or if the Red Sox pitchers just know how to pitch him. But it’s interesting. So I would say: No, Ichiro could not hit .400 at Fenway. Also, I will say this: I don’t think the Red Sox have any interest in signing Ichiro.
Magglio Ordonez is hitting .377 now which is absolutely amazing to me because I thought he was flat done two years ago. Here are the highest batting averages for right-handed hitters since World War II:
1. Nomar Garciaparra, .372, 2000.
2. Andres Galarraga, .370, 1993
3. Jeff Bagwell, .368, 1994
4. Rico Carty, .366, 1970
5. Joe Torre, .363, 1971
6. Mike Piazza, .362, 1997
7. Albert Pujols, .359, 2003
8. Alex Rodriguez, .358, 1996
9. Roberto Clemente, .357, 1967
10. Nomar Garciaparra, .357, 1999
Catcher: Jorge Posada. I give him the edge over Victor Martinez because Martinez has thrown out, what, .00000004% of the baserunners who have tried to steal against him? (OK, see, this is why people should look things up. First there was the Ichiro blunder. And now, I get this Victor Martinez thing completely wrong. It’s true that last year Martinez was a joke against base stealers, but Posada has actually allowed many more base stealers this season than Martinez. Posada has only thrown out 14 of 71 this season while Martinez has thrown out 15 of 52. So I take it back). Let’s start again.
Catcher: Jorge Posada. I give him the edge over Victory Martinez because he’s got a higher batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He has not, however, thrown out more base stealers despite what you may have read in the past.
13 comments:
I traded in a Passat and got a used Ford Ranger pickup. My daughter thought I was nuts. She would have kep the Passat. But, I said, it's mine. I had all the votes, so this was -- ipso facto -- the right decision.
You are correct about the all-star arguments.
I hope to see Todd Helton on your NL roster.
I'm usually a stat guy, but in this case, killing Posada for his defensive caught SB% is unfair. Yankee pitchers have given him absolutely NO chance in throwing anybody out this year. They're even slow on pitchouts. It's really pathetic to watch and I would contend Posada's times on getting the ball down are as good as they were last year, when he was excellent throwing people out.
You're not taking Youk as a write-in at first?! They guy's an on base machine and he just broke the Red Sox record for number of consecutive games without an error at first base! (120 - beating out Stuffy McInnis)
Come on, say it with me! Yooooouuuuukkkkk!!!!!
stolen bases are somewhat overrated anyway. i'd be more apt to blame the yankee pitching staff for not striking anyone out and allowing the runs to score, regardless of posada's throwing difficulties.
No love for Emil Brown???
For shame.
As always, love your stuff, Joe.
However, a "Rob Deer like" player would actually have plenty of walks and play decent defense. Rob Deer did.
Let's take a look at first base:
Justin Morneau - 139 OPS+
Carlos Pena - 162 OPS+
Kevin Youkilis - 139 OPS+
Casey Kotchman - 149 OPS+
Mark Teixeira - 147 OPS+
David Ortiz (hey, he's on the ballot) - 162 OPS+
Umm, yeah, Morneau's a great choice.
Then there's second base:
Placido Polanco - 107 OPS+
Brian Roberts - 127 OPS+
Dustin Pedroia - 123 OPS+
B.J. Upton - 144 OPS+
Mark Ellis - 109 OPS+
It's the comparison to Mark Ellis that really kills your Polanco choice for me. They're respective OPS+ marks are within two points of each other, while Ellis has homered more (8 to 1), driven in more (40 to 35), stolen more bases(6 to 2), at a better success rate (75% to 67%), and shown vastly better range defensively (5.24 range factor to 4.79). Ellis is arguably having a better year than Polanco and no one who watches baseball would consider him an all-star, including me. So, in short, you picked a guy to start at second base about whom it can fairly be said that he's played about as well as .... Mark Ellis? Let's just call your choice of Polanco dubious at best.
Paul? I think you missed the point of the first half of the article. Just sayin'.
No, John, I get it. Joe doesn't think the fans' collective All-Star choices can be wrong because they're based on what the fans want to see. That's his opinion, I read it, I understand it, and I even agree with it.
But Joe's personal choices are NOT the fans collective choices, so they're fair game for criticism. That's particularly true when some of them fly in the face of his own just-stated rule about the fans' choices. For instance, do you honestly think the fans would rather see Justin Morneau at first base for the AL, or Big Papi? Since Papi currently has about twice as many votes, I'm thinking the latter. Do the fans really want Placido Polanco on the team? Well, maybe, but he's never been voted in or selected before, and he's not the leading vote-getter at second base this year, so I'm thinking Joe's choice of Polanco doesn't mesh with his previous statement about the fans' collective wishes.
I'm just sayin'.
Joe:
Posada ....... Martinez .....
You're funny ................
Joe,
Victor has carried the Tribe to the third best record in baseball. Posada hasn't been able to get the Yanks above .500. nuff said.
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