Fastest Man In Baseball

Look at this: We're including charts on this blog now. You have to offer some applause for my wife, Margo, who put that together. Pretty nice looking, no? I'm talking about the chart. What kind of wise guy are you anyway?

We’re going to try to rank the 10 fastest players in baseball here, but first let’s talk a little bit about the decline of the stolen base. You know, I kind of miss the old running game. Yes, I understand that it does not necessarily make strategic sense to run like mad, the way teams ran from about 1974 to 1992. I also understand it does not make a whole lot of sense for quarterbacks to simply throw bombs into coverage the way so many NFL teams did in the 1960s and 1970s.

But that doesn't mean I have to like it. I have this theory that people will adjust to the times, but they will always love the game most the way they watched it played as children. So, even though I understand why it had to change, I miss the bombing quarterbacks – the Joe Namaths and Bert Joneses and Daryle Lamonicas and Dan Pastorinis and John Hadls – who threw tons of incompletions and interceptions but would sometimes hit the big play. It was exciting and dangerous -- like going to Vegas. I also miss stolen bases.

That nice-looking chart above shows how teams have used the stolen base since the late 1950s. The chart includes total stolen bases and caught stealing numbers, the number of attempts you would see in a game (both teams) and stolen base percentage.

I have no doubt that you as a reader can do a much better job of breaking down those numbers than I can – hey, I failed out of accounting – but I think it’s clear what has happened this decade. People in baseball read and were influenced by statistical breakdowns and Moneyball (Well, 98.3% of the people were influenced ... this does not include Joe Morgan). They became acutely aware of the dangers of running haphazardly. Most people in baseball put the stolen base break-even point at about 70 percent – that means it doesn’t make sense in most situations to try and steal a base unless you expect to be successful about 70 percent of the time.

Last year, teams were successful 71.4% of the time, the highest percentage since 1950 (and Bill James says that pre-1951, the caught-stealing numbers are spotty). Teams are also running less (over the last four years) than at any point since the 1960s. So it makes sense. Managers and general managers and players have accomplished their purpose – to maximize stolen bases without giving up as many outs. Teams are running smarter now than ever before.

Still, I kind of miss the stolen base, the tension of the moment, the little game between catcher and pitcher and runner. I guess this happens in every sport -- sound strategies take away excitement. Remember when hockey teams started playing that neutral zone trap that certainly was effective but made games unbelievably boring? In fact, do you remember hockey? Oh well.

Let’s move on. There are still some burners in baseball today. Here, I’m going to list the fastest runners in baseball using my own very special invention -- the "Super Speed Score." I will not reveal my SSS method here because it's a secret and also it's ridiculous and also I know that if I did reveal it, people would find enough holes in it to build several golf resorts. So, I certainly understand if you don't want to put too much stock in these numbers. In fact, I would recommend that. I will tell you the Super Speed Score takes into account such things as stolen bases, stolen base percentages, triples, grounded into double plays and also base running numbers taken from The Bill James Handbook.

In addition, I will add a quote about each player from a friend of mine who has been scouting in the Major Leagues for a long time. He has asked to remain anonymous because he doesn't want anyone to know that he knows me. Also I told him how the Super Speed Score works and he doesn't want to be associated with it.

10. Kenny Lofton, Texas Rangers
Super Speed Score: 85.1

Scout: "He has lost a lot of his speed, in my opinion, but he makes up for it with his savvy. He knows what to do on the bases."

Lofton will turn 40 in May – and since I turned 40 this year too, I had to jump him over potentially better speed candidates such as Felipe Lopez, Eric Byrnes (Sorry, it’s that hair) and Ryan Freel. But Lofton did hold his own anyway, even at 39. He stole 32 out of 37 bases, and he hit 12 triples in 469 at-bats. He did ground into a bunch of double plays and he wasn’t all that stellar on the bases, but heck, he’s old enough to be Hanley Ramirez’s father.

9. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins.
Super Speed Score: 86.5

Scout: He’s definitely one of the fastest players I saw last year. He thinks double out of the box, and he’s a fearless base stealer. He’s extremely aggressive on the bases.

It will be interesting to see where Ramirez goes from here. He’s obviously blazing fast – he stole 51 bases last year, hit 11 triples and so on. But he also hit 46 doubles (most ever for a National League* shortstop under than age off 22 according to Wikipedia – where do they come up with this stuff?) and 17 home runs. So he obviously has power. And if there’s one thing you know about baseball and life – power corrupts. I suspect that if Rickey Henderson had come up in 1999, he would have been a very different player (especially if he came up with the A’s). He still would have been a GREAT player (high on-base percentage, power) but not the all-time stolen base champ.

You know, it would be interesting to know: Would Rickey have been a better player had he come up with Oakland in 1999 instead of 1979? Maybe another entry.

Anyway, I suspect that with a few more home runs, Ramirez will run less so enjoy his speed while you can. I think the same is also true for Cleveland's Grady Sizemore, who can really run but will soon be a No. 3 hitter.

8. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies
Super Speed Score: 86.8

Scout: He's fast, but I’m not sure he takes advantage of his speed like he could. I don’t think he views himself as a speed guy.

Rollins is beginning to hit with more power too (25 homers last year), which will undoubtedly change him. He still has speed – he stole 36 out of 40 bases last year and cracked nine triples. The base running statistic that stands out for him is that he only advanced first to third 8 out of 36 times, which is really low. That may be caused by playing in a small ballpark.

7. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies
Super Speed Score: 87.2

Scout: He can really fly, but I’m not sure he hits enough to be in the lineup everyday. He needs to take pitches. It will be fun to watch him run around in that big Colorado outfield.

When Buck O’Neil first saw Willy Taveras, he said: “This guy looks like a young Willie Mays.” The funny thing is: He meant it literally. Buck thought Taveras resembled Mays in the face. He didn’t think Taveras bore any resemblance at all to Mays as a player, with the possible exception that they both tended to wear caps on the field. Even there, Mays' cap flew off.

Taveras scored really well as a base runner last year – he was 24 of 30 scoring from second on a single and an amazing six for six scoring from first on a double. It will be interesting to see how he does in Colorado. On the one hand, that light air might encourage Taveras to continue his disturbing pattern of hitting fly balls. On the other hand, some those fly balls might find gaps in Colorado. Anyway, he’s fast.

6. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Super Speed Score: 89.0

Scout: I keep hearing how he's lost a step, but I haven't seen it. Home to first, he’s still the fastest in the game. I would probably have him higher than sixth.

Well, OK Mr. Anonymous Scout, go start your own blog then. It seems to me that Suzuki’s base running numbers were down. He only went first to third 10 out of 36 times, and he only scored from first on a double four out of 14 times. In previous years, Ichiro’s base-running numbers were much better. He is still a masterful base stealer (45 out of 47) and he only hit into two double plays in more than 700 plate appearances. But I do think he’s showing just a little age.

5. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
Super Speed Score: 89.3

Scout: It’s funny, I was thinking about pure speed guys and Pierre has been doing it for so long I almost forgot about him. Still has tremendous speed; he and Furcal should run like crazy for that team. Pierre’s a terrific bunter too.

Remember how I was talking about what Rickey Henderson would be like in today’s game. Well, here's the converse: I wonder what Juan Pierre would have been like in, say, 1977.

Look: He had 200 hits last year (third time in his career), he played every game for the fourth straight year, he hardly ever strikes out. He had 58 steals last year (2nd in the league) but you know that if this was 1977, he probably would have stolen 90 or 100 bases. These days, Juan Pierre is probably not appreciated much – he’s on his fourth different team, people complain about his inability to walk or hit for power. But in 1977, he would have been considered one of the best players in baseball. Kids all over America would have had posters of him on their walls.

4. Chone Figgins
Super Speed Score: 89.7

Scout: He’s just a terrific base runner. He’s obviously very fast, but I think he’s also just one of those guys who knows how to use his speed. I would bet in a straight race, Joey Gathright would outrun him. But on the bases, there is no comparison.

I remember a game last year between Kansas City and Anaheim. It was late, and it was close, and Chone Figgins got on base somehow – I think he singled. The Royals brought in a reliever. Figgins promptly stole second, stole third and scored a groundout. I’m not too big on momentum and intangibles and all that stuff you can’t see. But I do think that kind of speed display can do an awful lot. It tears the heart out of fans, I know that. Figgins stole 52 bases and was a demon on the bases – he scored from first on a double 10 out of 12 chances. Bill James’ numbers ranked him as the best base runner in baseball in 2006.

3. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants
Super Speed Score: 91.1

Scout: You know, I really like him. As he’s gotten older, he’s done a better job of getting on base. He’s still one of the best base stealers in the business. He runs down everything in the outfield. I think he’s underrated.

Roberts was 34 years old last year, but he still stole 49 out of 56 bases, hit 13 triples in only 499 at-bats and was one of the toughest in the game to double up. Bill James’ Speed Score ranked Roberts as the fastest player in baseball in 2004 and 2005.

2. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Super Speed Score: 93.8

Scout: Think about this … for a while they had Crawford, (Rocco) Baldelli and (Joey) Gathright. Would that have been the fastest outfield in baseball history? … If I was starting a team, Carl Crawford would be awfully high on my draft board.

Crawford is one of my favorite players in baseball. And his speed numbers are spectacular. He stole 58 of 67 bases. He hit 16 triples. He was tough to double up, and he was awfully good on the bases, except going first to third – he was only 3 of 19 in that category. I wonder if it was because he was constantly surprised whenever Tomas Perez or Jonny Gomes or Toby Hall or Jorge Cantu or whoever it was batting behind him got a hit.

Anyway, Crawford is also the best defensive left fielder in the game, he’s hitting for more power, he’s blazing fast, I figure someday soon he will be on one of the big market teams and everyone in America will “discover” just how breathtakingly good he is … and then Tampa fans will know how Kansas City fans felt when Carlos Beltran was discovered after he left Kansas City.

1. Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Super Speed Score: 94.2

Scout: Yeah, you got this right. He’s the fastest player in the game today. He’s a threat to beat out any ground ball. He could probably steal 100 bases if they would give him the green light every time.

Well, the numbers speak. He stole 64 bases last year and became the first player to steal 60-or-more bases in back-to-back years since … well, guess. No, it was not Toby Harrah. How did you come up with that name? It was Lofton in 1993 and ’94. Reyes also hit 17 triples for the second straight year – nobody in the NL has put up 34 triples in back-to-back years since Stan Musial during World War II.

And remember: Reyes has only had two full seasons.

There’s more: Reyes only hit into six double plays all year. He was an excellent base runner. And with Reyes, you have a whole lot of anecdotal evidence – everyone who has seen him play seems to have some story about how he outran this throw or beat out that hit. In that way, he’s an awful lot like Willie Wilson. And because he’s doing it in New York, the stories will surely get larger and larger. He's the fastest guy in the game today.

Next 10:
11. Felipe Lopez
12. Eric Byrnes
13. Ryan Freel
14. Grady Sizemore
15. Josh Barfield
16. Rafael Furcal
17. Orlando Cabrera
18. Omar Vizquel (!)
19. Mike Cameron
20. Scott Podsednik

Players who are faster than you might think: Vizquel (SF), David Wright (NYM), Mark Teahen (KC).

Players who are slower than you might think: Derek Jeter (NYY), Torii Hunter (Min), Podsednik (White Sox, stole 41 bases, yes, but was caught 19 times. Yuck).