Saturday, April 28, 2007

Worst. Hitters. Ever.

Saturday night, and I'm watching Seattle's Jeff Weaver get absolutely killed by the struggling Kansas City lineup. Weaver has allowed hits to the first five Royals players . He has been horrendous this year which has to come as a very big surprise to ... nobody? The Mariners gave this guy $8.3 million because, well, why? A good postseason? He was coming off an 8-14, 5.76 ERA season. Maybe they signed him for his leadership skills.

Anyway, thought I would a do a combo blog -- a little bit off the game while compling a list of the worst hitters in baseball history. I came up with the idea watching the Royals lineup on Friday -- that lineup had four guys hitting less than .200. Tonight's lineup only has three.

Game update: Weaver just gave up his sixth hit in the first inning. Then he followed a four-pitch walk. And his seventh hit -- this one to Tony Pena, who is actually NOT one of the guys hitting less than .200. It's 6-0 Royals. There goes Weaver. Nice performance. They show a statistic: Opponents are hitting .492 against Weaver this year. Yikes.

Truly bad hitters don't happen by accident. There has to be a reason. As Bill James says, the worst defensive shortstop in baseball history, whoever that may be, was probably a very good hitter. Otherwise he never would have gotten enough at-bats to BECOME the worst defensive shortstop in baseball history.

The same is true of historically bad hitters. I mean lots of guys can't hit. I can't hit. Nobody would give me 1,000 plate appearances in the big leagues. The bat hitters who got 1,000 at-bats in the big league must have offered SOMETHING. Maybe they were great fielders. Maybe they were good hitters in the minor leagues and everyone expected things to click. Maybe they were related to ownership. There has to be a reason.

Two qualifiers. One, we're going to start in 1920. It just seems too hard to compare players from the deadball era to current players. The shame of this is that we will have to exclude a couple of classics from the deadball era. Oh, what the heck ... we'll mention them now:

1. John Gochnauer. He played shortstop for the Cleveland Bronchos and the Cleveland Naps in 1902 and 1903 -- I love how they used to change team names every other year. I think they should do that on today's game. Starting tomorrow, Kansas City will be the Cowboys, Cleveland will be the Spiders, Boston will be the Beaneaters and the Yankees will be without Joe Torre. Oh. Wait. Anyway, Gochnauer was apparently a scrappy player, the kind of player managers love and everybody else despises. His first year in Cleveland, the Goch hit .185 in 459 at-bats. The next year, to prove it was no fluke, he hit .185 in 438 at-bats. See, that's consistency. That second year, he also made 98 errors at shortstop. Yeah. Ninety-eight errors.

More than 100 years later, Utah Congressman Rob Bishop was ripping the Endangered Species Act because, apparently, that's what Utah congressmen do. He called it "the John Gochnauer of Federal programs." Nice. I just hope that in 100 years some player is struggling and the manager calls him the Rob Bishop of baseball players.

2. Bill Bergen. He must have been one heck of a defensive catcher because for 11 seasons he was a remarkably bad hitter. He was sort of the Eddie Murray of bad hitting.

Bill Bergen
1901: .179, 1, 17.
1902: .180, 0, 36
1903: .227 (career high!), 0, 19.
1904: .182, 0, 12
1905: .190, 0, 22.
1906: .159, 0, 19
1907: .159, 0, 14
1908: .175, 0, 15
1909: .139, 1, 15
1910: .161, 0, 14
1911: .132, 0, 10.

Bergen also holds a record for most consecutive at-bats without a hit for a non-pitcher (42). But it should be noted here that he also holds the record for throwing out seven would-be base stealers in a game. He apparently had an amazing right arm. His left arm, though, must not have been worth much because the guy was the worst hitter in baseball history.

There are plenty of other bad hitters during the deadball era. We're going to focus on players post-1920. The only other qualifier: They must have 1,000 plate appearances.

Game update: They just showed a Royals commercial featuring the hot dog race that appears on the video board every game. It's gotten that bad -- already the promotional people have given up on selling the acual team and they're not trying to draw condiment fans to the ballpark. ... The Royals are leading 8-2 -- both Mariners runs are unearned and were scored after Mark Grudzielanek botched an easy grounder. I mention this because Meche's ERA is now 2.35. I'm just saying.

Fifth-worst hitter ever: Mario Mendoza.
Career: .215/.245/.262 in 1456 plate appearances.

-- He really got cheated by history. "The Mendoza Line" was, according to the most popular theory, created on April 29, 1979 when George Brett was looking at the averages in the Sunday paper. Assuming the paper had batting averages through April 28 (no sure bet), Brett was hitting .263 on that day and was in the middle of a slump. Mario Mendoza was hitting .276. And Brett apparently said: "I knew I was in trouble when I saw my name below Mendoza's line." The next year, he was quote in Sports Illustrated using the term.

Did Brett really invent the term? Don't know. There are some who say the term was invented by Tom Paciorek, who did hit .193 in 1975. They were teammates in '78, and Mendoza always blamed Paciorek even though he insists he didn't do it. Others (including Paciorek) say the term was invented by Bruce Bochte. No matter. In time the Mendoza line came to mean a .200 batting average (or mediocrity in just about any other walk of life), and this is where it's unfair. Mario Mendoza's career average was actually .215 -- a full 20 hits better above his own line. Mendoza was hurt by the term -- hurt and angry -- and that's understandable. It must be said, though, that he was a brutal hitter. In addition to hit low batting average, he didn't walk, he hit with no power (4 career homers), and had an OPS+ of 41.

4. Jerry Zimmerman
.204/.269/.239 in 1118 plate appearances

-- I've always had a special admiration for players who have lower slugging percentage than on-base percentage. It's not easy to do ... Zimmerman was a fine defensive catcher and, from what I gather from some Internet research (Wikipedia!), he was quite a wit. He apparently once said that if his son wanted to become a catcher, he would "kick him right in the butt." Nutty!

Later, he became a coach and he actually umpired a game during an umpire strike. ... He couldn't hit a lick. But a lot of catchers couldn't hit. In 1961, when Zimmerman, hit .206, he had the highest batting average among catchers on the Cincinnati Reds (Johnny Edwards hit .186, Bob Schmidt hit .129). ... He played in two World Series, and got one at-bat. That was in the ninth inning of Game 3 against Claude Osteen. He hit into a double play to end the game.

3. Rich Morales
.195/.267/.242

He could (and did) play anywhere in the infield. He played 200+ games at short, 150+ at second and 60+ at third. The numbers indicate he was below average defensive player at all three position, but that's hard to believe -- anyone who was this bad a hitter had to be able to play some serious defense. ... He did hit .243 with a couple of homers in 1971. Otherwise he would have been a legitimate contender for worst-hitter ever. In 1973, in more than 250 plate appearances, hit had a .197 slugging percentage.

Game update: The Royals are still beating Seattle 8-3. Meche went six innings and gave up those three unearned runs. His ERA is now 2.18. ... The Royals have been hit by pitches three times tonight. They have now been plunked by 20 pitches this season, by far the most in baseball. Meanwhile Royals pitchers have hit only five batters -- tied for the lowest total in baseball. I'm not in favor of head-hunting or anything like that. But I have to say that combination -- most HBP, fewest opponent HBP -- might say a little something about what these Royals are all about.

2. Bill Plummer
.188/.267/.279 in 1007 plate appearances.

-- He has two World Series rings as part of the Big Red Machine teams in the 1970s. ... He, of course, had the reputation as an excellent defensive catcher. I wish someone would discover some simple statistic that would plainly and simply show whether a guy could play defense. It would be nice to know how many of these "defensive specialists" through the years were actually frauds... It couldn't have been too easy to be Johnny Bench's backup catcher. Still, in his best year, 1976, Plummer hit .248. Bench hit .234 that season ... The next year, though, he hit .137 in more than 100 at-bats. ...

Plummer became manager of the Seattle Mariners in 1992. That team had Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Omar Vizquel, Edgar Martinez, Bret Boone, Tino Martinez, Jay Buhner, Harold Reynolds and Kevin Mitchell. So what do you have there: Two future Hall of Famers, maybe a third, a two-time batting champ, a three-time All-Star and RBI champ, two 300-homer men, a fired ESPN employee and a former MVP. The team lost 98 games. Obviously it's not fair at all to blame Plummer for that-- none of those players was in his prime that year. And the team's rotation, except for Unit, was abysmal. Still facts are facts: They did lose 98 games. And Plummer was fired.

1. Ray Oyler
.175/.258/.251 in 1445 plate appearances.

-- There are those who say he was an utterly brilliant defensive shortstop. Someone must have thought so. He only hit higher .200 once in his career, and that was .207. Other than that he hit .186, .171, .135, .165 and he finished it off with a nice .083 (Ron Blum's number!).

According to the Baseball Library, the 1969 Seattle Pilots fans decided that Oyler was the guy who needed their help most, so they created the "Ray Oyler fan club." It didn't help too much -- he hit .165 that season. He did hit seven homers though, a career high. ... One other fun aspect of Oyler; he couldn't run at all. He attempted eight steals in his career. He was caught six times. ... He played in four games during the 1968 World Series, but didn't get any at-bats.

Friday, April 27, 2007

The Winds of Fenway

Editor's note: I can't tell for sure, but I think this might be longest entry yet. It began as a simple look at Fenway, and like the Universe and Ben Affleck, it just kind of kept expanding. Which leads to the question: Is Ben Affleck still a legit pop-culture reference point for chubby celebrities? I haven't seen him in a while.

Tony Pena told me this story a few years ago: He was struggling in the minor leagues when the legendary scout, Howie Haak, walked over and told him that he'd better pick it up because the Pirates were down on him. At the time, they saw Pena as an erratic, no-power catcher.

"How can I get them to notice me?" Tony asked. Haak shrugged, chomped on his cigar and said something charming like: "That's your problem kid."

Pena was scared. He had come from nothing in the Dominican, less than nothing, dirt floors, poverty, banana fields, and he knew one thing: He did not want to go back. When Pena got to Buffalo in Double-A, he saw something right away: The right field fence was in. Way short. So he trained himself to hit fly balls to right field. Again and again in batting practice, in cages and in his dreams Pena worked on hitting those fly balls to right.

Pena hit 34 home runs that year -- more than double the number he had hit in a season before or would hit after. Pena thinks he hit 30 of those homers over that right field fence in Buffalo. The Pirates noticed. Soon after, he was an All-Star catcher.

I start with this story because today's blog is about home and road, and how Fenway Park has influenced the way we have watched baseball the last 50 years or so. So right up front, I want to say that I'm not ripping Yaz or Jim Rice or Wade Boggs for putting up big numbers at Fenway Park. A good player takes advantage of his surroundings. Muhammad Ali felt the loosened ring ropes in Zaire and leaned on them. Bart Starr felt the frozen field beneath him and called the quarterback sneak.

Dante Bichette breathed in the light Colorado air and saw a giantic outfield, and for five years (1994-98) he hit .369 at home (compared to .267 on the road). Because of that, Bichette had a long (14 season) and enriching (more than $42 million) baseball career. I admire him for this. At 29, Bichette seemed on his way to early retirement and a college coaching career.

So I'm here to praise Fred Lynn, not to bury him. It's just that I'm absolutely fascinated by the Fenway Effect. I'm fascinated in general by those extreme ballparks that give players a chance to put up outrageous baseball statistics. I'm a huge, huge fan of the 1996 Colorado Rockies, for instance. This was the year the entire Rockies lineup hit .343 at home and .228 on the road.

It was the year that Eric Young had one of my 10 favorite seasons ever.

Eric Young in 1996
Home: .412 batting average, 7 homers, 55 RBIs, 37 stolen bases.
Road: .219 batting average, 1 homer, 19 RBIs, 16 stolen bases.

Just look at that. It's a thing of the beauty. At home, Eric Young was Ty Cobb circa 1912 (with more power). On the road, he was Mark Belanger in 1970. You want to talk about a player who could do it all.

Obviously, Young wasn't alone. Everybody was a Hall of Famer at Coors in 1996. Ellis Burks hit .390 at home, Walt Weiss hit .337 at home, Dante Bichette hit .362 with 99 RBIs. Vinny Castilla hit .345 with 27 homers. Larry Walker hit .393. You might say it was a little bit out of control. Look at Andres Galarraga's stats that year.

Big Cat II in 1996
Home: .359, 32, 103
Road: .245, 15, 47.

Man, I love that team. Of course, it wasn't just that year at Coors. For 10 years, 1994-2003, Larry Walker hit .381 at Coors Field and .283 on the road. Bichette in his five prime years hit 105 homers at Coors, 41 on the road. And as every Royals fan knows, Neifi Perez bulked up his batting average by hitting .312 at Coors Field (vs. .244 on the road), thus convincing the Royals braintrust that he could actually hit, thus convincing general manager Allard Baird to trade Jermaine Dye for him straight up. Ah yes. Memories.

FENWAY PARK at its most hitter friendly was not as radical as Coors, of course. But certainly over the years, the Green Monster and the wind have helped create some Boston hitting heroes. The interesting thing about Fenway is how much it has changed over those years. For instance -- and you may not have known this -- Fenway was the toughest home run park in the American League last year. Big Papi hit 10 more homers on the road (32-22), which may not surprise you since he's left-handed. But Manny also hit more homers on the road and so did Mike Lowell.

Bill James says that Fenway stopped being a ridiculous hitter's park around 1985, probably because the new press box drastically changed the wind currents. Interestingly enough, Baltimore Orioles announcer Gary Thorne says that it was the players who actually changed the wind flow. "It was all for PR," he said.

There's no doubt that for at least the last 10 years, Fenway has been a much saner park -- almost neutral, really. It's still a good park for batting averages (I originally called it a "good average park," and realized that made no sense at all). There always will be a lot of doubles hit there, of course. But homers are down. In 2002, for the first time since World War II, Fenway actually rated as a better pitcher's park than hitter's park.

But that's now. When you look back over time, you can see what Fenway has meant to offense.

AL Batting champs since 1957
Boston: 18
Minnesota: 12
Seattle: 5
Kansas City: 4
New York Yankees: 3
Detroit: 2
Texas: 2
Baltimore: 1
Chicago White Sox: 1
Toronto: 1
The Whatever Angels: 1
Cleveland: 0

RBI Champs since 1957
Boston: 11
Cleveland: 6
Minnesota: 5
Baltimore: 5
Texas*: 5 (*includes Frank Howard's Washington Senators)
Detroit: 3
Milwaukee: 3
New York Yankees: 3
Seattle: 3
Oakland: 2
Toronto: 2
The Whatever Angels: 1
Chicago White Sox: 1
Kansas City: 1
Note: Cecil Cooper and Jim Rice tied for the title in 1983.

Home run champs since 1957
Boston: 9
Oakland: 7
Texas*: 7 (includes Frank Howard's Washington Senators)
New York Yankees: 6
Minnesota*: 7 (includes Killebrew/Sievers Washington Senators)
Milwaukee: 4
Seattle: 4
Chicago White Sox: 3
The Whatever Angels: 3
Detroit: 3
Baltimore: 2
Cleveland: 2
Toronto: 2
Note: Includes ties in 1959, '67, '75, '80, '81 (three-way), 82 and '91.

And so on. Now, part of the deal is that the Red Sox have had good hitters over the last 50 years -- Papi, Manny, Vaughn, Boggs, Rice, Lynn, Dewey, Nomah, Yaz, Tony C, Jackie Jensen, the aging Ted Williams and so on. But there can be no doubt that many of the biggest Red Sox years, the legendary years, were hugely influenced by Fenway.

Jim Rice's MVP season of 1978
Total: .315, 46, 139.
Home: .361, 28, 75.
Road: .269, 18, 64.

Comments: In 1976, the Red Sox put in the new scoreboard. Fenway had already been a very good hitter's park, but the scoreboard had some sort of effect on the wind pushing the ball up -- wind is always a key factor in Fenway -- and that turned Fenway into a pretty absurd park for three or four years. Couple that with young Fred Lynn, Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk along with still effective Yaz and Boomer Scott, and you have a team that, from 1976-78, hit 90 more homers than any team in the league, 30 more doubles, scored almost 100 more runs, etc.

Rice was one of the big beneficiaries. We'll talk about Rice as a Hall of Fame candidate in a bit, but for now we'll say that in his scary years -- 1977-79 -- he hit .350 with 82 homers and 230 RBIs at Fenway. On the road, he hit a much more Emil Brown-like .290 with 42 homers and 153 RBIs.

Fred Lynn's batting title in 1979
Total: .333, 39, 122,
Home: .386, 28, 83.
Road: .276, 11, 39.

Comments: Lynn had this monster season and won a Gold Glove on top of it and somehow finished FOURTH in the MVP voting. The winner that year was Don Baylor, who was essentially a DH and had an OPS almost 150 points lower than Lynn (not that anyone knew what OPS was back then). Of course, Baylor had more RBIs, which is the MVP stat. We're going to do a blog item on RBIs -- maybe even the next one. Bill James brought up an interesting point about RBIs ... stay tuned. Well, don't just stay tuned ... buy a book. And don't tell me you already bought a book. What you don't have any friends? Father's Day is coming up, isn't it? Mother's Day? Some day?

Yaz's Impossible Dream Triple Crown in 1967
Total: .326, 44, 121
Home: .332, 27, 74
Road: .321, 17, 47

Comments: Yaz was really good both at home and on the road in '67 -- this was his highest road batting average. In his career, Yaz hit 42 points higher at Fenway than he did on the road (.306 to .264). But there's no doubt the home run boost at Fenway really helped him win the Triple Crown: Yaz tied Harmon Killebrew with 44 homers that year -- Killer hit 23 of his on the road.
On other note: Yaz famously won the 1968 batting title with a .301 batting average. That year, he actually hit 32 points higher on the road.

Wade Boggs amazing batting title in 1985
Total: .368, 8, 78.
Home: .418, 6, 39
Road: .322, 2, 39

Comments: There used to be this myth that while, yes, Fenway Park helps right-handed hitters because of the Green Monster, it hurts lefties because of the deep fence in right. Of course, we know that isn't true. The park was tailored for a guy like Boggs, who didn't strike out, who could spray the ball everywhere, who (like Tony Pena) learned how to poke long fly balls the other way to take advantage of his situation.
I chose Boggs in 1985 because I recall reading once he did not fly out to the infield once this year. That might be a myth, but I remain impressed. It doesn't really matter though, four of his five batting titles were Fenway-riffic.

Wade Boggs batting titles:
1983: .361.
Home: .397. Road: .342
1985: .368
Home: .418. Road: .322
1986: .357
Home: .357. Road: .356
1987: .363
Home: .411. Road: .312
1988: .366
Home: .382. Road: .351

One other weird stat from 1985: Boggs hit in every situation except one. He was 3 for 19 with the bases loaded. He hit .388 for the rest of his career with the bases loaded.

Mo Vaughn's MVP year of 1995
Total: .300, 39, 126.
Home: .301, 15, 52.
Road: .299, 24, 74.

I bring this one up because it's stunning. Vaughn was an extreme Fenway hitter. In his Boston career, he hit 63 points better at home and aside for this year he hit 31 more homers at home. But in 1995, he was quite a bit better on the road.

Bob Watson's terrific half season for the Red Sox in 1979
Total: .337, 13, 53.
Home: .349, 7, 23.
Road: .319, 6, 30.

I will never for the life of me understand Bob Watson. He spent the first 13 1/2 years of his career drowning in the Astrodome -- the worst hitting park known to man. Year after year he would hit .300 on the road with double digit homers and 50 or so RBIs. Year after year, he would hit 20 to 30 points less at home, crack about half the homers and 20 fewer RBIs in the dome. It had to be devastating.

Finally, he was freed. He was traded to the Red Sox. And suddenly, his home park was Fenway Park in its prime. Imagine how freeing that must have been -- it had to be like taking TEN donuts off the bat. For a half season, he ripped doubles off the monster, flew them over to Landsdowne street -- in this beautiful park he could be a threat to win a batting title. He was a 20-plus homer, 100 RBI guy here for sure.

So what does he do? The second the season ends, he signs with the Yankees. He voluntarily goes to Yankee Stadium. A graveyard for right-handed hitters. Some people just don't know what's good for them.

OK, SO WHAT DOES IT it all mean? I have no idea. I think the general point here is that so much of what we see in baseball -- in all sports, really -- is driven by context. It will always be in the record books that John Daly won two major golf championships. The record books will not point out that he won one on an absurdly long golf course in Indiana, where his legendary length proved to be an absurd advantage, and he won the other at St. Andrews where you can drive the ball all over town and he was the only guy who could really hammer it through the wind.

Sure, context drives everything. Tom Brady probably would not be much of a quarterback had he been drafted by the Arizona Cardinals. Pete Sampras would not be considered one of the all-time great tennis players if every tournament was on clay. Ted Williams could not have hit .400 in Dodger Stadium in 1965. Babe Ruth would not have hit 60 homers in the Astrodome in 1976.

Let's go back to Jim Rice for a moment because every year I hear from dedicated Rice fans who are adamant that I should vote him into the Hall of Fame. Many of these fans are actually contemporaries who played against him and remember just what a fearsome player he was.

I've thought a lot about this. Rice does not hit any of the magic career numbers in baseball. He doesn't have 3,000 hits (or even 2,500), doesn't have 500 homers (or even 400), doesn't have a lifetime .300 batting average. He isn't too strong on intangibles if you're into those -- nobody ever thought of Rice as a great outfielder or some sort of clubhouse stalwart. He didn't walk. He couldn't run a lick. He hit into a million double plays.

So as I see hit, his Hall of Fame case is based on two things: (1) He drove in a lot of runs (eight times he had 100+ RBIs and he led the league twice); (2) he was, for a time, widely considered the most terrifying hitter in the American League.

(An aside: I think the "terrifying" thing has been a bit trumped up over time. Rice hit a lot of home runs -- more than anyone for a time -- but I don't know how terrifying he was. Managers must not have thought so -- he never came close to leading the league in intentional walks. He only finished in the Top 5 once. Yes, I realize he had Yaz hitting behind him most years, but after 1978 Yaz wasn't a particularly fearsome hitter himself. I don't know exactly how you measure a hitter's TQ -- Terrifying Quotient -- except to guess how scared pitchers were to throw to him. It seems apparent from the low walk numbers that pitchers did not back down from Jim Rice very often).

Anyway, if you're going to put Rice into the Hall of Fame based on the power of his offensive numbers and his overpowering intimidation, I think it's pretty important to see how much of that was based on Fenway Park.

Jim Rice's Career:

Total: .298 avg., .352 OBP, .502 SLG, 382 HR, 1451 RBIs, 1249 runs
Home: .320 avg., .374 OBP, .546 SLG, 208 HR, 802 RBIs, 681 runs
Road: .277 avg., .330 OBP, .459 SLG, 174 HR, 649 RBIs, 802 runs.

That's a big gap. Rice hit about 55 percent of his homers and RBIs at Fenway. Or to put it another way -- using Bill James' simplest runs created method, Rice created about 57% of his runs at Fenway Park.

Again, that's a big gap. For me, Rice's Hall of Fame case was borderline anyway -- add in that sort of home park advantage, and I just don't think he gets my vote. I will say this, though: There are other Hall of Famers who made the most of their home parks. Because I like you -- I must like you, I'm not getting paid for this -- I have looked at the hitters the last 50 years voted into the Hall of Fame by the writers (home/road splits only go back to 1957 -- I include Luis Aparicio and Brooks Robinson because even though they started before '57, they were not full-time players). Again, using that simple runs created method I calculated how much their offensive value numbers relied on their home parks.

Hall of Famer hitters over the last 50 years:

1. Kirby Puckett, 60% home value.
-- I had no idea he was such a Metrodome creature. Puckett hit .341 in the Metrodome, .291 away. He had about 200 more hits, 50 more doubles, 20 more homers, 100 more RBIs at home. I do wonder how we will look back on Puckett's Hall of Fame induction. He's a guy who seemed to get in quickly because there was emotion surrounding him. I know that Puckett has inspired and will continue to inspire Don Mattingly fans to keep working for their man.

2. Wade Boggs, 59% home value.
-- In his career Boggs hit .354 at home and .302 on the road. It's interesting: The big knock on Boggs from various critics was that he was a light-hitting guy who didn't drive in or score runs. The critics have been blasted for saying that, but you know what? On the road he was a light hitting guy (.394 SLG) who did not particularly drive in or score runs. Maybe that's why the critics saw that.

3. Ryne Sandberg, 57% home value.
-- Hit an even .300 at home, .269 on the road -- hit 46 more homers and 150 more RBIs at Wrigley.

4. Carl Yastrzemski, 57% home value.
-- Played in exactly the same number of games at home and on the road (6996) but had almost 300 more RBIs at Fenway, which is striking. OPS was 126 points higher at home.

5. Billy Williams, 55% home value.
-- Hit .302 at home, .278 on the road. The big difference is home runs -- hit 245 of his 426 in the friendly confines.

6. George Brett, 53% home value.
-- Royals Stadium took away quite a few homers from Brett, but he hit 30 points higher there over his career -- .320 to .290. Interestingly (at least to me), Royals Stadium was not a major factor in his run for .400 in 1980. He hit .391 at home, .388 on the road.

7. Carlton Fisk, 52% home value.
-- Most of the difference comes from his Fenway years; with Boston he hit .298 at home with 90 homers; on the road he hit .271 with 72 homers.

8. Luis Aparicio, 52% home value.
-- Offensive numbers didn't get him into the Hall of Fame anyway, but he hit 11 points higher at home.

9. Lou Brock, 52% home value.
-- A .300 lifetime hitter at home (.286 on the road) but he actually stole more bases on the road.

10. Paul Molitor, 52% home value.
-- Essentially the same player at home and the road except for batting average -- .317 at home, .296 on the road.

11. Gary Carter, 52% home value.
-- Hit the same number of homers (162) at home and on the road -- and more doubles on the road. His on base percentage was 26 points better at home.

12. Tony Perez, 52% home value.
-- Doggie hit fewer homers at home, but he hit 40 more doubles and drove in about 50 more RBIs.

13. Johnny Bench, 52% home value.
-- Hit .272 at home vs. .263 on the road and hit one more home homer.

14. Willie Stargell, 52% home value.
-- His run for 500 homers was probably stopped by his home park -- he hit 254 homers on the road and 221 at home. But his other numbers were better at home.

15. Ozzie Smith, 51% home value.
-- The sense was always that Ozzie took advantage of the St. Louis turf, but he was essentially the same offensive player home and road.

16. Mike Schimidt, 51% home value.
-- Hit for a higher average and walked more at home. Hit more homers on the road.

17. Joe Morgan, 50% home value.
-- Same story as Schmidt: got on base more at home, banged more longballs on the road.

18. Tony Gwynn, 50% home value.
-- Hit .334 on the road, the highest road batting average among these Hall of Famers.

19. Rod Carew, 50% home value.
-- Hit .333 at home and .323 on the road. Tough out anywhere .

20. Brooks Robinson, 50% home value.
-- He did hit 10 points higher at home -- .273 to .263 -- but he had almost 400 more at-bats on the road.

21. Robin Yount, 50% home value.
-- Numbers are about the same across the board; Yount might have had an even better career had he played in Kansas City. He loved Royals Stadium -- hit .332 there for his career.

22. Harmon Killebrew, 50% home value.
-- Killer has the closest thing to a perfect split -- he mashed homers everywhere. He hit 288 at home, 276 on the road.

23. Willie McCovey, 49% home value.
-- Stretch was actually a better player at home, but because he got a 400-plus more at bats on the road, he created more runs.

24. Eddie Murray, 49% home value.
-- What a surprise; Mr. Consistency was exactly the same player at home (.288 average, 242 homers) and on the road (.286 average, 262 homers).

25. Reggie Jackson, 47% home value.
-- Here's the first Hall of Famer who was actually hurt by his home parks. Reggie's OPS was 31 points lower at home. Maybe he liked the boos. He did spread out his homers (280 at home, 283 on the road).

26. Dave Winfield, 47% home value.
-- He hit 13 points better on the road with 190 more hits and 29 more homers. Winfield spent the first chunk of his career in San Diego, which was a dreadful hitting park every year he was there. Then he went to Yankee Stadium, the aforementioned graveyard for right-handed hitters. The only time he really played in a hitter's park was when he was 40, for the 1992 Toronto Blue Jays. He hit .290 with 26 homers and 108 RBIs.

27. Cal Ripken, 46% home value.
-- This is probably common knowledge among Baltimore fans, but I never would have suspected it: Ripken was a significantly better offensive player away from home. He hit 17 points better on the road (.283 to .267), slugged better (.459 to .435), and hit three more homers, 80 more doubles, scored almost 100 more runs. Wow.

His 1991 MVP is especially telling. That year he .358 with 18 homers on the road. ... The next year, the Orioles moved into Camden Yards, and Ripken hated it right away. He hit .237 with just five homers in what was viewed by most as a good hitter's park. He never really tailored his game to Camden. He hit .269 there with 85 homers Over the same time, he it .273 with 87 homers on the road.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Luis Tiant in '68

I think we all can relate to that observation by Cy Curnin* of the Fixx who said: "One thing (one, one thing) leads to another (to another)." A Red Sox-Yankee blog leads to Dave Kingman which leads to the story of a few unlucky baseball souls which leads to Luis Tiant. Which leads to perhaps the most unappreciated pitching season in baseball history.

In 1968 -- that year when Bob Gibson had his 1.12 ERA and Denny McLain won 30 -- Luis Tiant went 21-9 with a 1.60 ERA. It's the lowest ERA for an American League starter in the last 88 years (going back to Walter Johnson in the year of the Black Sox).

Of course, the ERA is a bit of an illusion -- the entire American League had a 2.98 ERA that year, so Tiant's ERA+ is roughly the equivalent of Jason Schmidt's 2003 season (17-5, 2.34 ERA, 183 ERA+). Sam McDowell, on the same Cleveland staff in '68, went 15-14 with a 1.81 ERA. It was that kind of year.

Still, people still talk about Gibson's amazing 1968 season (Tidbit: Take away that remarkable year, Gibson's career record is 229-165 with a 3.07 ERA).

People still talk about McLain's 31-victory year, you know at least in various American prisons A couple of McLain '68 tidbits: He had no decisions in his first two starts and lost his final start; his six losses that year were by scores of 10-8 (he only went two innings in that one) 2-0, 5-3, 10-2 (he gave up seven unearned runs) 2-1 and 2-1.

But nobody talks about Tiant in '68. He was coming off a pretty good season in '67 -- 12-9, 2.74 ERA, and he had struck out 219 batters in 213 innings. But he had a fairly indifferent start to the season. His first appearance was in relief of McDowell and he went 3 1/3 innings. His next time out he pitched well; he threw a four-hitter against the White Sox and beat them 3-1. Next time out, he only went four innings against the Boston Red Sox -- Reggie Smith took him deep. So he was 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA on April 28.

For the next 20 starts, Tiant was about as good as anyone ever.

April 28 at Washington
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 7 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 2, Washington 0.
Summary: Second game of a doubleheader. ... Del Unser led off the first with a single. Ken McMullen singled in the fourth. And that was it. The only baserunner to reach after McMullen was Mike Epstein, who got on when Jose Cardenal dropped a fly ball in center field. .. Tiant struck out the side in the ninth to finish it off.

May 3 vs. Minnesota
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 3 walks, 9 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 4, Minnesota 0.
Summary: In front of 5,106 passionate fans (I hope), Tiant blew away a lineup with two Hall of Famers (Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew) and two Hall of Could Have Beens (Tony Oliva and Bob Allison). Carew got the first hit in the third, meaning Tiant had retired 25 batters over two games without giving up a hit. ... Retired the last nine he faced.

May 7 at New York Yankees
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 5 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 10 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 8, Yankees 0.
Summary: He didn't give up a hit until Tom Tresh's two-out double in the fourth. ... Gave up two hits in the ninth -- first time in the stretch that he gave up two hits in an inning. ... Struck out Mickey Mantle twice . ... Nice crowd at Yankee Stadium, 6,630. People do forget the dark Yankees years.

May 12 at Baltimore
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 10 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 2, Baltimore 0.
Summary: Tiant's fourth consecutive shutout. ... He was able to outduel Tom Phoebus, who threw eight innings and allowed just one run. Phoebus would go 15-15 with a 2.62 ERA. He also struck out 193 that year -- that's a modern day record for pitchers shorter than 5-foot-9. You simply cannot argue with the meaningless free information you get on this blog, which reminds me: You HAVE bought the book right? That Amazon sales ranking is suddenly higher than Pete Rose's hit total, which isn't great. ... The score was 0-0 going into the sixth when Tony Horton hit an RBI single. Now, there's another interesting story: Tony Horton. Maybe next blog. ... The only others the last 50 years to throw four consecutive shutouts are:

1. Don Drysdale (six straight, 1968, about a month later than Tiant).
2. Bob Gibson (five straight, 1968, his streak started two days after Drysdale's ended).
3. Gaylord Perry (four straight, 1970).
4. Ray Culp (four straight, 1968 -- wow, that might have been a good pitcher's year).
5. Ray Herbert (1963 -- interesting story. He was really just a workhorse pitcher -- right around .500 for his career, lots of innings, few strikeouts, mediocre ERA. But on May 1 that year, the shut out Baltimore and allowed just four hits. Four days later, he shut out the Senators on three hits. Four days after that, he shut out the Yankees on TWO hits. And on May 14, he shut out the Tigers. The rest of the year, he went 8-9 with a 3.65 ERA. He did lead the league with nine shutouts, though).

May 17 vs. Baltimore
Tiant's line: 7 innings, 4 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), 6 walks, 9 K. Loss.
Final score: Baltimore 6, Cleveland 2.
Summary: The first five innings, Tiant was his usual unhittable self -- score was 1-0 Cleveland through five. That made 41 consecutive shutout innings -- the second time that Tiant had a streak of 40-plus shutout innings. Only Walter Johnson (I think) has two shutout streaks that long ... In the sixth, Tiant struck out Davey Johnson, walked Curt Blefary and then forced Frank Robinson to hit a grounder to second that may or may not (can't tell on Retrosheet) been a sure double play. I suspect yes. Anyway, Indians second baseman Chico Salmon booted the ball. Next batter, Boog Powell, hit a three-run homer. ...

May 21 vs. Oakland
Tiant's line: 8 inning, 7 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 2 walks, 5 K. Loss.
Final score: Oakland 2, Cleveland 0.
Summary: Beaten by Blue Moon Odom, who threw a 7-hit shutout ... Tiant did not seem to have great stuff today. He gave up three singles to fourth to allow Oakland the first run. The second came when Ray Webster's grounder was booted by Cleveland third baseman Max Alvis. It's worth noting that Webster -- who hit .214 with three homers in '68 -- was hitting cleanup for Oakland.

May 26 at California
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, 12 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 5, California 2.
Summary: Both California runs came on homers. Paul Schaal, who is a chiropractor here Kansas City now and seems like a very nice guy, hit one of them. The other was a homer by Chuck Hinton in the eighth inning. ... Tiant's season ERA is now 1.37.

May 31 vs. Washington
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 8 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), 0 walks, 4 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 8, Washington 3.
Summary: Pretty blah game. Indians jumped to a 2-0 lead in the first when Lee Maye and Tony Horton both homered off Senators' starter Phil Ortega. ... Indians were up 5-0 in the fourth, when Tiant gave up the unearned run when Lee Maye dropped a Ken McMullen's pop-up. The other two runs scored when the Indians were up 8-1 and Tiant allowed after back-to-back doubles to Paul Casanova and Cap Peterson.

June 4 vs. Chicago
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 6 walks, 6 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 2, Chicago 1.
Summary: Beat Gary Peters, who threw eight strong innings. ... Tiant's brilliance had really begun to inspire Cleveland fans as 7,215 poured into Cleveland Municipal Stadium. Hey don't blame me; I was one-year-old at the time. ... The run scored after a walk, sacrifice bunt and Bill Voss' single. That actually gave Chicago a 1-0 lead. But the Tribe got to Peters in the eighth for two. A key hit? Luis Tiant's single.

June 9 at Detroit
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 6 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 2, Detroit 0.
Summary: Here's a classic -- Tiant beat McLain in front of 52,000-plus. The big hit for Cleveland was by a wonderful guy, Joe Azcue, who singled in Duke Sims in the fifth. Sims later added a home run -- he scored both runs. ... The only Tigers player to even reach second base was pinch hitter Gates Brown, who doubled in the eighth. Tiant promptly struck out Dick McAulliffe to end that mini-threat.

June 14 vs. Boston
Tiant's line: 6 innings, 6 hits, 5 runs (2 earned), 7 walks, 10 K. Loss.
Final score: Boston 7, Cleveland 2.
Summary: Things sort of fell apart late. Tiant started off the game with four shutout innings. Then in the fifth, up 1-0, he walked Yaz and gave up a two-run homer to Ken Harrelson, who was something of a nemesis for Tiant in his career. ... In the sixth, Joe Foy reached on an error by center fielder Jose Cardenal. And then, strangely, with Foy on first and two outs, Tiant intentionally walked Yaz to face Harrelson again. Yaz was obviously the most dangerous hitter in the league since he was coming off the Triple Crown year and was on his way to the batting title. But still ... Harrelson deposited another homer. He hit seven off of Tiant in his career. ... That was more than enough for Dick Ellsworth.

June 19 at Chicago
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 3 walks, 6 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 3, Chicago 1.
Summary: This one looked bad through 5. White Sox pitcher Bob Priddy threw five shutout innings and hit a home run in the fifth to give Chicago a 1-0 lead. The Indians scraped the tying run in the sixth, the key hit being Duke Sims' double. Tiant allowed one hit the rest of the way, the Tribe managed two runs in the seventh (Tiant's sacrifice bunt being key) and 8,600 White Sox fans went home unhappy.

June 23 vs. Detroit
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 9 K. Win
Final score: Cleveland 3, Detroit 0.
Summary: Second straight shutout against the Tigers. This time he beat John Hiller. A quick note on Hiller: His 1973 season might be the best relief-pitching season in baseball history. He won 10 games, saved 38, pitched 125 innings and had a 1.44 ERA. I suspect that had saves been considered a big deal in 1973 (he had set the record), he would have won the Cy Young ... Anyway Hiller was lousy on this day; he only lasted 1/3 of an inning. The Indians started off: Walk, single, single, groundout and Joe Azcue's two run double. And Hiller was gone. ... The Tigers didn't get anyone to third base off of Tiant. And everyone in the starting lineup except Jim Northrup struck out.

June 29 at Boston
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 6 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 13 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 8, Boston 1.
Summary: Tiant wasn't fooling around this time. He struck out Hawk Harrelson three times and Yaz twice. ... Red Sox were losing 8-0 but managed at least to spoil the shutout when Rico Petrocelli doubled in Reggie Smith, who had walked. ... Joe Azcue who caught this game remembered this being a day when Tiant's stuff was particularly electrifying. Well, this game and the next one.

July 3 vs. Minnesota
Tiant's line: 10 innings, 6 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 19 K. Yes 19. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 1, Minnesota 0 (10 innings).
Summary: One of the best pitched games in Cleveland Indians history -- there with Feller's no-hitter at Yankee Stadium, Len Barker's el-perfecto, Sam McDowell's 11-inning shutout that same year, Dennis Eckersley's no-hitter with 12K, Stan Williams 10-inning, 2-hit shutout that same year. ... Tiant did not look all that sharp early. He gave up back-to-back singles in the second but got out of it by striking out Jackie Hernandez. ... He struck out one in the first, two in the second, two in the third, and then he really started to feel it. ... In the fourth he struck out Oliva and Rich Reese back to back. ... In the fifth he struck out the side. ... Cesar Tovar led off the sixth with a double which he tried to stretch into a triple and was thrown out. Tiant struck out Jim Holt then. ... In the sixth, he struck out the unforgettable Frank Quilici, his 12th strikeout of the game. ... In the eighth, he struck out the side again, and it was the same three batters (Johnny Roseboro, Jackie Hernandez and Jim Merritt) he had whiffed in the fifth. ... He struck out killer in the ninth for his 16th strikeout. And then in the 10th, he struck out the side, the victims were Johnny Roseboro (again), Rich Rollins (pinch-hitting for Jackie Hernandez) and Jim Merritt. That's 19.

BUT, Merritt was brilliant on the mound. He allowed two hits through nine innings. In the 10th, Sweet Lou Johnson singled and went to second on an error. Then Joe Azcue singled him home to win the game. Azcue has said catching that game is one of the greatest memories of his life.

July 7 vs. California
Tiant's line: 6 1/3, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 7 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 8, California 3.
Summary: Tiant gave up a run in the first, but the Indians scored four in the bottom of the inning -- the key blow being Duke Sims 3-run homer. Tiant followed up by striking out the side in the second. ... Tiant really didn't have his great stuff on this day. He gave up more hits than innings pitched for the only time that season. He was pulled in the middle of an inning for the only time during the 20-start streak.

July 14 at Minnesota
Tiant's line: 6 innings, 4 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 6 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 6, Minnesota 3.
Summary: Another bland start, though these days we would call it a "Quality start." ... Indians were up 4-0 when he gave up a two-run homer to Johnny Roseboro. He had struck out Roseboro four consecutive times before this. ... Tony Oliva drove in the other Twins run.

July 20 at New York Yankees
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 5 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 3, New York 0.
Summary: Luis was back. He took a no-hitter into the seventh and had it broken up by Mickey Mantle (who was immediately erased on a double play). ... Indians scored only run they needed in the first off of Fritz Peterson -- a sacrifice fly by Sweet Lou Johnson. ... Much better crowd at Yankee Stadium this time. There were 38,000 plus. Maybe it was bat day.

July 24 at Baltimore.
Tiant's line: 7 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 6 K. Loss.
Final score: Baltimore 1, Cleveland 0.
Summary: Boog Powell, that Tiant nemesis (Powell hit .348 with 9 homers against Tiant in his career), hit a double to score the game's only run. ... Dave McNally, who finished that year 22-10 with a 1.95 ERA, was sensational. He allowed six hits, didn't walk anybody and threw the complete game shutout. ... The Indians actually had the tying run in scoring position in the ninth after Jose Cardinal doubled. But then Cardinal was thrown out trying to steal third to end the game -- it's hard to imagine a much worse baseball decision.

July 28, vs. New York Yankees
Tiant's line: 9 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 10 K. Win.
Final score: Cleveland 3, New York 2.
Summary: The Yankees finally scored a run on Tiant on a Bobby Cox RBI single, and they actually had a 2-1 lead when Jake Gibbs added his own RBI single. But Fritz Peterson couldn't hold it. He allowed solo homers to Sweet Lou, Joe Azcue and Tommy Harper. ... Tiant struck out Mickey Mantle three times.

OK, those are the 20 amazing starts. Truth is, Tiant was amazing all year. After this, he had a 16-strikeout victory against Minnesota. He was hurt for part of September, but he finished the year with an 11-strikeout, 1-hit shutout at Yankee Stadium. ... The league hit .168 off of Tiant, which is still a record. Heck, the league hit .184 against Gibson that year. ... And how about this consistency: Right-handers hit .168 against Tiant. Left-handers hit .168 against Tiant. In the first half, the hit .166 against him. In the second half, .170. At home, they hit .196 against him. On the road, they only hit .145. ... Honestly, there has never been another year quite like it.

But I want to take one more second to look specifically at those 20 starts. He went 16-4 with a 1.13 ERA. He allowed 93 hits in 167 innings and struck out 168. He threw 15 complete games and eight shutouts. All 20 starts were "quality starts" if you care about that. And here's a fun little stat -- all six people who tried to steal bases against Tiant were caught.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Hall of Could Have Been

Somewhere in the middle of the monstrous last blog, Dave Kingman came up. I wrote that if Dave Kingman had played his career for the Red Sox (instead of playing for seven different teams and the New York Mets twice) he would be in the Hall of Fame today. I realize that this takes some imagination when you consider that Kingman was:

1. A .236 lifetime hitter who didn't walk.
2. A historically bad outfielder.
3. A strikeout machine.
4. One of the worst percentage players in baseball history.
5. The guy who once sent a reporter a live rat.

That doesn't seem like much of a Hall of Fame resume, no. But here's the kick: I would bet that Kingman hit more long fly balls to left than any player in the 1970s and 1980s. I'm sure there's a way to look this up, but I don't know how to do it. I'm going off memory. But I do know his splits at Fenway Park -- he played 18 games there, hit 13 home runs and had an .816 slugging percentage. I don't think there has ever been a park more tailored for a player than Fenway for Kingman.

As it was, Kong hit 442 home runs. I think had he played his entire career at Fenway he would have hit 500 home runs for sure and maybe 550. Maybe even 600. He would have led the league in homers five or six times. Or more. He'd be in the Hall of Fame.

Kingman's situation made me wonder who else might have been a Hall of Famer had his career been just a little bit different. So, I emailed Bill James, who promptly sent me back a five-page email with names and thoughts -- Bill's a machine. So here, we look at players who just might have been Hall of Famers had their careers taken a different turn.

I should say right up front though what we we are NOT looking for today:

1. Players who had their careers interrupted by war or delayed by the Negro Leagues. There's no doubt in my mind that had baseball integrated earlier, Minnie Minoso (among many others) would be in the Hall of Fame. As it is, I believe Minoso belongs in the Hall of Fame. Joe Gordon is a guy who would likely be in the Hall of Fame had it not been for World War II. There are quite a few players like this -- but they have been talked about a lot already. We'll save that discussion for another day.

2. Players who had their careers halted or wrecked by injuries. Sure, it's fascinating to think what Tony Conigliaro might have been or Herb Score or even Bo Jackson. But that's a whole other blog item.

So what are we talking about here? We're talking about players who were signed by the wrong teams. Players whose talents were muffled or choked by the stadiums they played in. Players who were blocked by other great players or just had bad timing. Stuff like that.

Fred Lynn

Might have been a Hall of Famer if: He had not been traded from Boston.

Looking back, it's pretty easy to see what Bill James saw so clearly. Lynn's game was beautifully suited for Fenway Park. In 1975, his brilliant rookie season, he hit .368 at Fenway. He hit .282 on the road. In 1976, it was more of the same (.360 at home, .272 on the road). He had an off year in 1977 -- only hit .260 with 18 homers. Why? He was more or less the same player at home (.313, 10 homers). But he was abysmal on the road (.215 BA, .352 SLG).

And so it goes. Lynn might have been at his best in 1978 when he hit .333 and he banged a career high 39 homers. He was widely viewed as the best player in baseball. His splits tell a fuller story.

Home: .386, 28 homers, 83 RBIs in 77 games.
Road: .275, 11 homers, 39 RBIs in 70 games.

Lynn was a very good player. But he was a legend at Fenway Park. In his career, he hit .347 at Fenway with a .420 OBP and a .601 SLG. You know who are the players who hit better than .330, .400 OBP and .600 SLG for their careers?

1. Babe Ruth.
2. Ted Williams
3. Lou Gehrig.

That's it. Lynn had a lot of injuries in his career. But he was a Gold Glove outfielder with a 300+ homers, almost 2,000 hits -- had he spent the last nine years of his career at Fenway, I think he would be in Cooperstown.

Elston Howard

Might have been a Hall of Famer if: He'd signed with a team other than the Yankees.

The story goes that in the mid-1950s -- when it was clear to everyone except Tom Yawkey that this integration in baseball thing was here to stay -- the Yankees asked Kansas City Monarchs manager Buck O'Neil to recommend a special player who could be the first black New York Yankee. Buck mentioned a classy outfielder named Elston Howard.

"He can really catch too," Buck added.

The rest is history. Howard is a big part of baseball history because he was the first African American Yankee. He was also one heck of a player -- he won the MVP in 1963. He made every All-Star team from 1957-65. He won two Gold Gloves as a catcher.

But what if ... he had signed with, say, the Chicago Cubs? Consider a couple of things:

(1) The Yankees had Yogi Berra when Howard was signed. So even though the Yankees called up Howard in 1955, he did not catch. In fact, Howard did not catch 100 games in a season until 1961, when he was already 32 years old. The Cubs (and we only mention them because that's the team Buck O'Neil scouted for and, later, coached with) from 1955 to 1960 had FIFTEEN different players catch -- led by the immortal Sammy Taylor and Cal Neeman.

(2) Yankee Stadium was a BRUTAL park for Howard. He hit 152 career home runs. He hit FORTY SIX of them at Yankee Stadium. So, it's pretty fair to guess that Yankee Stadium stole 50 homers from Howard's career. Had he hit at Wrigley, you probably could add another 20 to 25 homers to that.

So, with a different team, Howard might have had a couple more Gold Gloves and 225 homers. That would put him right up there with Dickey, Campy, Gabby and other catching Hall of Famers.

Bob Cerv

Might have been a Hall of Famer: If something had actually gone right in his career.

He is Bill James' favorite "What if." "It's just so improbable," Bill writes. "EVERYTHING went wrong for him. He didn't lose 40 percent of his Hall of Fame luster. He lost 95 percent of it, so people will never believe how good he could have been."

Talk about bad luck. Cerv went to Nebraska -- where he was a big football star. So he did not sign to play baseball until he was 24 years old. And then he chose to sign with New York Yankees, who were just about to become quite possibly the most dominant team in baseball history. That meant 1951-56, Cerv never played more than 50 games in a season. When he was 30, he was traded to the Kansas City A's. And when he was 32 -- his first season with more than 500 at-bats -- he hit .305 with 38 homers and 105 RBIs.

He was almost as good the next year, and then the A's traded him back to the Yankees because in those days the A's traded EVERY good player they had to the Yankees (Cerv hit .357 for the Yankees in the 1960 World Series). Cerv then bounced around for his last couple of years.

"If he signs with the Cubs before going to college," Bill writes, "I would argue he could be a Hall of Famer."

Hank Sauer

Might be in the Hall of Fame if: The Cincinnati Reds didn't HATE home run hitters.

The Honker did not get a chance to play full-time in the big leagues until he was 31 years old -- after that he hit 281 home runs. As Bill points out, that's more homers after 31 than, among others: Stargell, Musial, Schmidt and McCovey. It's one fewer than Reggie Jackson.

Why didn't Sauer get his chance earlier? The Reds were anti-home run. There's really no other way to look at it. From 1941 to 1947, the most homers hit by a Reds player was 20 (by Frank McCormick hit in the war-torn year of 1944). The Reds were all about pitching and defense ... and they never did appreciate Sauer. They finally gave him his shot in 1948, and he hit 35 homers -- he shattered the Reds' record by five homers.

His reward was to be traded to the Cubs the very next year for Harry the Hat Walker and Peanuts Lowery. Sauer hit 30-plus homers five times after that, including a monster 41-homer season in 1954 when he was 37. That matched Cy Williams NL record for most homers in a season by a player 35 or older.

Frank Howard

Might be in the Hall of Fame if: The game hadn't changed on him.

In 1963, the powers of baseball decided to change the strike zone. They felt like too many homers were being hit (Roger Maris' 61 being the star witness for the prosecution). And so -- this is incredible looking back -- they made the strike zone from the shoulders to the bottom of the knee. Wow. If they had kept that going, Richie Sexson's strike zone would be the second tallest structure in Seattle behind the Space Needle.

In addition, as Bill points out, you could build the mound just about as high as you want. You needed a Sherpa guide to get to the top of the mound at Dodgers Stadium in the 1960s. And it stayed this way until the absurd 1968 season, when:

-- Pittsburgh's Bob Veale went 13-14 with a 2.06 ERA.
-- Cleveland's Sam McDowell went 15-14 with a 1.81 ERA.
-- Cleveland Luis Tiant went 21-9 with a 1.60 ERA -- and did not win the Cy Young Award.
-- Danny Cater, a nondescript player if there ever was one, finished second in the American League with a .290 batting average.

And so on. It had gotten out of control. And so they lowered the mound and put the strike zone right again. And over time, the game sort of balanced out again. Then the strike zone shrunk to microscopic size, Brady Anderson hit 50 homers -- anyway, that's another story.

Frank Howard was coming into his prime in 1963 -- he had hit 31 homers a year earlier with 119 RBIs. And he had done that at Dodger Stadium, which was a killer ballpark for home run hitters. Everyone pretty much assumed at the time that Howard would become one of the great home run hitters in baseball -- maybe in baseball history.

But with the crazy strike zone (and Howard at 6-foot-7 had a Space Needle strike zone himself) and the high mound (especially at Dodger Stadium), he really scuffled for four years. His home runs went down every year -- from 31 in 1962 to 28 to 24 to 21 to 18.

In 1967, Howard figured it out -- the next four years he hit 172 home runs. But those quiet years hurt. He ended his career with 382 homers; had he hit even 20 more he would have been in the Hall of Fame conversation (until Darrell Evans and Dave Kingman, every hitter with 400 or more homers was in the Hall o Fame).

Willie Davis is another Dodgers player who felt the pain of the 1960s strike zone. His first full year was 1962, and he looked like a terrific young player: He hit .285 with 21 homers, 32 steals, he led the league with 10 triples.

Then from 1963 to 1968, facing that strike zone and Mount St. Dodger Mound he hit .262, and averaged 9 homers per year and about 63 RBIs. Nothing special at all.

From 1969-1975, though Davis felt free. He hit .296 over that time, cracked 1,200 hits, hit 87 homers, stole bases, made a couple of All-Star teams, even won his first three Gold Gloves. I'm not sure if Willie Davis is an almost Hall of Famer, but he certainly had his prime muted by some goofy rules.

Jose Cruz Sr.*

Might have been a Hall of Famer if: The Astrodome had not been Wonder of the World size.

Cruz had a very nice career -- he hit .284 with 2,200 hits and 165 homers. But look at these home/road splits.

1981 home: .247, 3, 17.
1981 road: .283, 10, 38.

1982 home: .277, 3, 33.
1982 road: .274, 6, 35.

1983 home: .313, 3, 45.
1983 road: .324, 11, 47.

1984 home: .276, 0, 30.
1984 road: .344, 12, 65.

1985 home: .310, 1, 35.
1985 road: .291, 8, 44.

OK, it's still pretty questionable to say Cruz might have been a Hall of Famer in a different ballpark ... I admit that's a stretch. But Cruz certainly would have had a very different career. In 1984, if you just double his road stats you have Cruz hitting .344 with 24 homers and 130 RBIs -- he would have won the MVP award for sure.

Gene Woodling

Might have been a Hall of Famer if: Someone had given him a chance.

He was signed by the Cleveland Indians, who gave him 133 at bats and decided he couldn't hit (to be fair, I guess, he did hit a lousy .188 in those 133 at-bats). They traded him to Pittsburgh for a 500-year-old catcher named Al Lopez. The Pirates gave him 79 at-bats, didn't like what they saw, and they sent him to San Francisco of the Pacific Coast League.

Then the Yankees got him and he was a key player on the teams that won the next five World Series.

Key player -- but not a starter. Stengel's Yankees platooned like crazy, of course, and so Woodling would get 400 or so at-bats every single year from 1950 to 1960 (in fact he averaged 401 at-bats). He was a good player. But if he had gotten 550 at bats instead of 400, he would have averaged over those years: .286, 15 homers, 83 RBIs, 96 walks, etc. Again, it might not be Hall of Fame, but he would be remembered as one of the really good players of the 1950s. Instead, I suspect, he's hardly remembered at all.

Matt Stairs

Might be in the Hall of Fame if: I'll let Bill explain.

"Look at it. Somebody decided he was a second baseman, he tears through the minor leagues, gets to Montreal, the Expos take one look at him and say, 'He's no second baseman, get real.' He bounces around, goes to Japan, doesn't really get to play until he's almost 30, then hits 38 homers, slips into a part-time role and hits 15-20 homers every year for 10 years in about 250 at-bats a season. ... You put him in the right park, right position early in his career ... he's going to hit a LOT of bombs."

What can you say? It's all there. Stairs did not get 500 at-bats until he was 30 -- he had a .370 OBP that year, hit 26 homers, drove in 106. The next year, he had the 38-homer season. His average dropped the next season, and he never got 500 at-bats in a season after that.

Bert Blyleven

Might be a Hall of Famer if: He'd played on a few better teams (and the Hall of Fame voters appreciated his greatness).

Blyleven's Hall of Fame has been discussed plenty, but we'll just point out that 46 times in his career, Blyleven threw eight innings or more, gave up two runs or less and either lost or got a no-decision. If he wins just 13 of those, he has 300 victories. And he would have been in the Hall of Fame years ago.

Luis Tiant

Might be a Hall of Famer if: He had retired two years earlier.

This is a weird one -- but fascinating. First, take a look at three pitching careers:

Career 1: 229-172, 3.30 ERA, 2,416 Ks, four 20-win seasons, 2-time ERA champ.
Career 2: 224-126, 3.26 ERA, 2012 Ks, five 20-win seasons, Cy Young Award.
Career 3: 224-184, 3.27 ERA, 2,855 Ks, 1 20-win season (four 19 win years), 3-time K champ.

OK? Not a lot to choose between them, is there? You probably already guessed the first one is Luis Tiant. Well, the second and third ones are Catfish Hunter and Jim Bunning.

Catfish was voted into the Hall of Fame in 1987, after waiting only three years. Bunning received some pretty strong voting support and was voted in by the Veteran's Committee in 1996.

Tiant? Well, in 1988 -- the year after Catfish -- he received 132 Hall of Fame votes, so it looked awfully good for him. And the next year, for no obvious reason, his support was slashed by two-thirds -- suddenly he got only 47 votes. The next two years his votes dropped even further. And so Tiant never even came close to getting into the Hall of Fame.

As Fred Willard asks in "A Mighty Wind:" Wha happan?

I'll tell you wha happaned: Starting in 1989, there was a historic run of pitchers who became eligible for the Hall of Fame. In 1989, it was 300-game winner Gaylord Perry and seven-time 20-game winner Fergie Jenkins (neither one of them made it). In 1990, it was Jim Palmer. In 1991, Perry and Jenkins were voted in. In 1992, Tom Seaver got the highest percentage of the vote in Hall of Fame history.

And they just kept coming -- Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, Don Sutton -- and by the time the voters took care of all the 300-game winners, Tiant was long forgotten. And by the time Tiant became eligible for the veteran's committee there WAS NO veteran's committee.

Tiant's final two seasons were 1980 and 1981 for Pittsburgh and California. He won a combined four games with a 4.55 ERA. If he had retired before those two meaningless seasons, he would have come up on the ballot two years earlier -- before the pitching glut. He would have been directly against Catfish Hunter, which would have made his numbers look a lot better. He might be in the Hall of Fame now.

We'll finish off with a few players who probably would not have been Hall of Famers, but who certainly might have had better careers under different circumstances:

-- Al Rosen lost three years because Cleveland already had a third baseman -- Ken Keltner. He also retired at 32 because of back issues. In between, he was about as good as any third baseman in baseball history.

-- Jackie Jensen didn't get to Boston until he was 27 -- and for the next six years he averaged .285 with 29 homers and 111 RBIs. He retired at 34 because he didn't like to fly.

-- Dixie Walker was buried on the Yankees bench until his late 20s, and after that he hit .309 with almost 2,000 hits. But as Bill says: "He was a racist, so screw him."

-- Dutch Leonard won 191 games and lost 181 in a fine career, but it could have been finer. He played for some miserable teams:

Year: Dutch's record, ERA (team record)
1934: 14-11, 3.28 (Brooklyn 71-81).
1935: 2-9, 3.92 (Brooklyn 70-83).

1938: 12-15, 3.43 (Washington 75-76).
1939: 20-8, 3.54 (Washington 65-87).
1940: 14-19, 3.49 (Washington 64-90).
1941: 18-13, 3.45 (Washington 70-84).

1943: 11-13, 3.28 (Washinton 84-69)
1944: 14-14, 3.06 (Washington 64-90)
1945: 17-7, 2.13 (Washington 87-67)
1946: 10-10, 3.56 (Washington 76-68)
1947: 17-12, 2.68 (Philadelphia 62-92)
1948: 12-17, 2.51 (Philadelphia 66-88)

And so on. Had Dutch Leonard pitched on some good teams, there's no telling how much better his record might have been.

-- Matty Alou had the misfortune of coming up to the San Francisco Giants when they had Willie Mays, Orlando Cepeda, Willie McCovey and a couple of other Alou brothers. Matty did not escape to Pittsburgh until he was 27. Then he was befriended by Roberto Clemente and in his first year (1966) he hit .342 and won a batting title. The next year he hit .338, then .332, then .331.

-- Bill wants special mention given to Kevin Appier, who pitched for mostly rotten Royals teams in the 1990s but was often a a dominating force. Bill says: "By RSAA (Runs scored against average) he ranks the sixth best pitcher of the 1990s, behind Pedro, Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and David Cone but ahead of Glavine, Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina and John Smoltz.

"Beginning in 1990, he's +24, +15, +36, +54, +24, +23, +31, +37. These are huge numbers. He finished with a winning record and a better-than-league ERA every year from '1990-96, usually with a .600 winning percentage with teams that really weren't good ... On a better team, he could easily had had several years as a serious Cy Young contender."

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Yankees! Red Sox! Live!

You probably were not aware of this, but the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are playing baseball tonight! Yes! Tonight! And apparently this Japanese pitcher that you may have heard about is pitching. I have no idea how the mainstream media could miss this ... I think it's a pretty big story.

So, let's do a live blog. Sure, why not. And to help us along the way, we will chat live with brother-in-arms, Mike Vaccaro, New York Post columnist, author of the Red Sox-Yankees bible "Emperors and Idiots" and Civil War geek. It's why we love him.

It's the Yankees! The Red Sox! And it's coming to you live right here.

(It must be big: Announcer extraordinaire Jon Miller just spoke Japanese in the intro).

Commercial thought: They just showed a Chevy commercial which featured the song "Crocodile Rock." I read somewhere a few years ago that Elton John decided he hated that song and wouldn't play it anymore. That has bothered me ever since. Hey, I don't blame Elton for hating that song -- it blows. But I mean, millions of people bought that song. You want to make a point -- how about returning some of the cash? To me, once you cash all those checks you OWE people that song in concert. Doesn't Elton remember when rock was young?

Pregame: Mike Vaccaro reports that five hours before the game, he saw Dice K throwing HARD. He capitalized HARD. This would be the opposite of Minnesota's Sidney Ponson, who seems to prepare for games by burping. It took Ponson about nine minutes to walk from the dugout to the mound to start Friday's game ... Jon Miller just said that Doug Mientkiewicz is "struggling early this year." I mean, let's be blunt here, huh? Dougie just can't hit. He's a wonderful guy. He's a terrific defensive first baseman. But he ain't struggling. This is like saying that Kenny G. is struggling to make cutting edge jazz. ... OK, let's get this game started.


Top of the first inning: Johnny Damon comes up. Vac reports that the Boston fans are booing him. Which leads to our first chat:

Me: (7:15:36 PM): How many years do you think the Red Sox fans will boo Damon?
Vac (7:15:13 PM): As long as he's a Yankee.
Vac (7:15:20 PM): If he retires a Yankee, forever.


Damon pops out. Jeter flies to right. And then Bobby Abreu walks. That's all Bobby Abreu EVER does.

Vac (7:15:43 PM): Has there ever been a more boring good player than Bobby Abreu? Every at bat lasts 10 pitches
Me (7:17:06 PM): Well, it seems impossible now to get a called strike on him. He's like Frank Thomas circa 1998.


Dice K plunks A-Rod, which makes everybody at Fenway Park happy. Joe Morgan makes the point that Dice K wasn't TRYING to hit A-Rod, he was just trying to come inside. You know, Joe Morgan is one of the greatest players in baseball history. But I have no idea how he could know whether or not Dice K was trying to hit Rodriguez.

Jason Giambi pokes a double to left center, scoring two. It's 2-0 Yankees! The inning ends when Robinson Cano grounds out.

Vac (7:18:30 PM): Apparently "Matsuzaka" means "Aaron Sele" in Japanese.
Me (7:19:39 PM): Gyro Ball = bad change-up.
Vac (7:19:58 PM): Yup.
Vac (7:20:57 PM): That ends the competitive portion of the Yankee lineup, though. Check out 7-8-9: Doug Mientkiewicz .128; Melky Cabrera .210, Wil Nieves .000.

Vac (7:21:02 PM): And that's a legit .000
Me (7:22:25 PM): Jon Miller said Dougie is just struggling at the plate. Yeah. So is Carrot Top.


Bottom of the first: Boston lead-off hitter Julio Lugo walks right off the bat, which seems like a nice way for Yankees starter Chase Wright to begin.

Me (7:28:37 PM): This seems an opportune time to ask this question: Who in the hell is Chase Wright?
Vac (7:28:32 PM): The evil spawn of Chase Utley and David Wright.


He then walks Kevin Youkilis. Pitching coach Ron Guidry comes to talk to him.

Me (7:29:22 PM): Kid looks good.
Me (7:29:38 PM): What has he thrown 97 pitches?
Vac (7:29:12 PM): 14
Vac (7:29:16 PM): Half of them for strikes!
Vac (7:30:03 PM): You know what drives pitching coaches like Gator to drink? Walking two guys IN FRONT OF PAPI AND MANNY.
Me (7:30:52 PM): Do you think Ron Guidry can just take the ball and pitch the rest of this inning?
Vac (7:30:39 PM): I've seen him pitch live BP. The answer is yes.


Lo and behold, Chase Wright gets Papi to pop out. Joe Morgan goes on and on about how Chase got away with a bad pitch. Wright then gets MannyBeingManny to pop out. Joe Morgan goes on and on about Chase got away with another bad pitch. Now J.D. Drew fouls one off, and apparently that was a bad pitch too. "He's getting away with bad pitches," Joe Morgan said.

Drew strikes out on a slider. That was probably a good pitch.

Second inning: Doug Mientkewicz just pulled off his specialty ... a nice slow roller to second base. At this point his number should just be 43, right? That's all he does: 4-3.

Vac (7:43:10 PM): That would be awesome! And if they ever go to three digits he'd be first in line for: 123
Vac (7:44:23 PM): By the way, this seems like the perfect time to mention: Buy
Joe's book!
Me (7:45:18 PM): You said it, not me.

Me (7:47:39 PM): OK, subject change: What do you think: Should Hank Aaron be there when Barry breaks his record?
Vac (7:47:34 PM): Hell no
Vac (7:47:47 PM): That's like being there for your wife who cheated on you when her second husband wins the lottery.
Vac (7:48:02 PM): Or something like that
Me (7:48:58 PM): I agree with you. I honestly don't see how he could have handled this any better. He said he won't go to the game, but he hasn't ripped Barry publicly. So you know exactly how he feels, but he remains above the fray.
Vac (7:48:40 PM): I'll tell you what: calling him a coward, as (Detroit columnist) Rob Parker did the other day, is one of the worst things I've ever seen. I like Rob a lot but that was so far out of line it was out of the picture
Me: (7:49:38 PM): Yeah, I like Rob too. But that was a way out of line.
Vac (7:49:20 PM): The guy listened to death threats for a year. He doesn't have to answer to you, me, Rob Parker, Barry Bonds, or anyone but his God.


Lots of meaningless things have been happening in the game, by the way. Dustin Pedroia just got the Red Sox first hit though. Then Julio Lugo grounded out to Jeter. Still 2-0 Yankees.

Third inning: Johnny Damon leads off with a single. And then DiceK plunks Jeter. Joe Morgan is pretty sure he wasn't trying to hit Jeter.

Me (7:56:15 PM): You know Johnny Damon stays healthy for a few more years, he's going to get 3,000 hits.
Vac (7:56:12 PM): Just think how many he'd have gotten if he'd decided to hit two-handed.
Vac (7:56:42 PM): DiceK can run for mayor now. Plunks ARod and Jeter in the same hour.
Me (7:58:20 PM): I was just wondering ... do you think he will go to Bucky Dent's house and throw a fastball at him through the window?
Vac (7:58:41 PM): A drive-by beaning!
Me (7:59:17 PM): It's now 0-2 on Abreu. He could throw it underhand over the middle of the plate and not get a strike three call.


I'm wrong. Three pitches later DiceK throws a pitch over the heart of the plate and it's a strike three. Abreu whines.

Me (8:00:29 PM): I don't think Abreu was complaining about the call. I think he was unsure of the rule that an umpire can call a strike three.
Vac (8:01:03 PM): I think the conversation just went like this:
Sam Holbrook: "Strike three! You're out!"
Bobby Abreu: "Don't ever take sides with anyone against my strike zone again. Ever."

And then A-Rod strikes out looking.

Me (8:02:56 PM): And it is followed by a strike three call against A-Rod. Wow. Next thing you know Holbrook will call a charging call against Duke.
Vac (8:02:37 PM): By the way, you know the coolest thing about the way Arod has been playing (that last K notwthstanding)? The fact that he wears his socks like Jackie Robinson. Who played with Buck O'Neil. Who is the subject of a
terrific book you may have heard of.
Me (8:05:16 PM): You know A-Rod won the Josh Gibson award like three years in a row -- the Negro Leagues Museum gives out annual awards named after Negro Leagues players. A-Rod recorded a video thanking everyone for the award each year ... and I swear they looked EXACTLY alik
e. I mean, frame for frame. It was like that modern day version of "Psycho" with Vince Vaughn.
Vac (8:06:09 PM): That's the problem with ARod. even when he does something genuinely nice, its easy to suspect there was something else behind it.

Jason Giambi hits a single to right field, even though Pedroia is playing short fielder out there, scoring Damon. It's 3-0 Yankees.

Vac (8:06:52 PM): You know, Dice K looked a lot better trying to get Tony Pena Jr out.
Me (8:10:44 PM): I will say that people were getting awfully excited about Dice K striking out a lot of Royals. Boof Bonser struck out a lot too.

Vac (8:11:57 PM): Can you imagine if he's a bust? I mean, seriously: what if hes like 10-14 every year, with a 4 ERA? He cost the Sox 103 MILLION!
Me (8:13:07 PM): Then everyone will realize the truth: The Royals got a BARGAIN with Gil Meche.

We're now in the bottom of the third inning, and Joe Morgan is STILL ripping Chase Wright. Apparently now Chase is falling in love with his change-up. I mean the guy has given up one stinking hit. And he just got Papi to poppy up. Here comes Manny Ramirez, who is hitting like .180.

Vac (8:13:07 PM): How about Manny? What if Manny being Manny means that he's realy Manny being Manny Trillo?
Me (8:15:02 PM): OK, that cracked me up. You know the famous Harry Caray moment when the Cubs sent Manny Trillo up to pinch hit. And Caray said: "You know, on a lot of teams you would send a pinch hitter for Manny Trillo."

While I was writing that Manny Ramirez hit a home run that went about 983 feet. Wow. And then J.D. Drew came up and he hit a ball about 843 feet. And then Mike Lowell hit a ball about 879 feet. Wow. None of those three homers were cheapies. OK, now it's OK for Joe Morgan to rip away at Chase Wright. It's 3-3 now.

Vac (8:17:09 PM): Chase Wright = English for Kaz Ishii
Me (8:18:55 PM): It looks at this point like Chase Wright may never get anyone out for the rest of his life.

As soon as I wrote that, Jason Varitek homered. You have to be kidding me. That's four in a row. They just showed 11-year-old Theo Epstein, and he was mouthing: "Oh ... my ... God." It's 4-3 Red Sox.

Me (8:19:12 PM): Oh for God's sake.
Vac (8:18:44 PM): You always want to come to the ballpark and see things you've never seen
before. i have never seen that before
Me (8:19:34 PM): Joe Morgan just said the samething. He's never seen four homers in a row.


Four homers in a row. That's pretty amazing, obviously. And all of them were pretty well blasted. The Varitek homer was the cheapest of the bunch, and it wasn't exactly cheap.

Vac (8:19:50 PM): Chase Wright = Masato Yoshii
Vac (8:21:52 PM): Fifth time that's (four homers in a row) ever happened
Vac (8:21:56 PM): last by LA Dodgers last year
Vac (8:22:08 PM): Last AL time -- Twins vs KC A's May 2, 1964
Me (8:27:28 PM): Yep. That was in the 11th inning too. Oliva, Allison, Hall and Killer -- score was tied 3-3 before that.


Fourth inning: Well, the place is still buzzing over the four consecutive home runs. Dougie Baseball did hit a long double to the deepest part of the ballpark but he's stranded at third. Wil Nieves lined out, so he's still hitting .000, which leads to the question: Will Nieves ever get a hit? ... OK here comes one of my favorite TV features: It's the one where they interview the manager right in the middle of the game. Let's hear what Joe Torre has to say:

Highlights: "You know Joe, you've played the game. ... Our lineup goes out there and fights. ... Four homers in a row is a little tough. We just wanted to get him out of there."

And Joe Morgan's response: "That's why Joe's a good manager." Apparently Joe Torre's unique ability to determine that it might be a good idea to take out Chase Wright after he has given up four homers in a row is the very skill that makes him a winner.

Vac (8:34:12 PM): i am having a heck of a good time with this, by the way. And our old pal (Yahoo! baseball columnist) Jeff Passan just walked by and said, "Make sure you tell people to buy Joe's book."
Me (8:36:40 PM): That's what makes Jeff the talented young writing star that he is.

Vac (8:38:14 PM): He is a star. he actually wrote his story yesterday from his hotel room. He not only never has to work on deadline anymore, he scoffs at it. Jerk.

Explainer: We newspaper people -- since we work in an industry that still relies on, you know, presses and trucks -- have to work on ridiculous deadlines. In fact, we often have to write something called an "early" column before the game even ends. So when we see these Internet people who have no deadlines, well, yeah, it will bring out some raw emotions. Jeff used to be a newspaper person. He doesn't seem to miss it.

OK, there is something amazing about tonight's game: It's Jackie Robinson day in Boston. Papi is wearing No. 42. I mean this is a FULL WEEK after Jackie Robinson day in the Major Leagues. Then we all know the Red Sox never were on the cutting edge of integration.

Me (8:42:13 PM): You have to be kidding me. Today is Jackie Robinson day in Boston? Is that serious? Did the people in baseball think it was best for the Red Sox to be the last ones to celebrate that?
Vac (8:43:11 PM): Yup. Pumpsie Green was made the team 12 years after Jackie. Should have had their Jackie Robinson Day 12 days after the Dodgers did.
Me (8:44:56 PM): Almost did. So what do you think: Absurd joke that Tom Yawkey is in the Hall of Fame?

Vac (8:45:16 PM): if you think about it, it's almost as sick a joke as all those ones that circulated after the Challenger blew up. Think about it:
Vac (8:46:05 PM): Yawkey was: 1. One of the all-time racists, ever. 2. He owned the team 34 years. Zero titles. THREE pennants.
Vac (8:46:35 PM): What, exactly, did he do to even be allowed into Cooperstown buying a ticket, much less getting a plaque?
Vac (8:46:48 PM): (Boston columnist) Steve Buckley wrote a great column in the Herald this week saying he should be removed.


Sigh. Tom Yawkey in the Hall of Fame. Buck O'Neil not.

Nothing too exciting happened in the fourth. But wait, it's an interview with Terry Francona. We need highlights:

"So far, I think (DiceK) may be trying to rush a little bit. ... He might be a little bit excited. ... We've been economical with our swings."

Then they talk about Terry's dad Tito for a while.

Fifth inning: Derek Jeter hits a cheappie homer over the Green Monster -- it's 4-4 now. That's leadership. And it's another classic Red Sox-Yankees. game. DiceK then strikes out Abreu looking for the second straight time (hey, the home plate umpire likes this called strikeout feeling!) and he strikes out A-Rod on three pitches that are nowhere near the strike zone. A-Rod is one of the three or four greatest players I've ever seen, but he can have some flat awful looking at-bats. And here comes Jason Giambi.

Vac (8:54:36 PM): Do you remember that hole in the wall of the Camden Yards press box a few years back? The one that was put there by Jason Giambi like seven months earlier?
Vac (8:55:10 PM): Every time he fouls one back I duck.
Vac(8:55:20 PM): He's a strong ess-oh-bee
Me (8:56:50 PM): Here has always been my question about the Giambis -- Jason and Jeremy. When they were kids, which one of them played the field while the other one hit?
Vac (8:56:42 PM): I think their Pop just used pitch-backs for the position players.


Giambi fouls out. Still 4-4 going into the bottom of the fifth. The Red Sox will have another inning of facing pitcher Yankees great Colter Bean.

Me (8:58:53 PM): Seriously, by the way, you cannot win a division or a World Series with Chase Wright and Coulter Bean, right?
Vac (8:58:31 PM): Wil Nieves' last major league hit, btw: Sept. 29, 2002.
Vac (8:58:52 PM): And no, i think you have a better chance with Steven Wright and Orson Bean.
Me (9:01:16 PM): What about Robin Wright and Mr. Bean?

Vac (9:01:42 PM): David Chase and Ann Coulter.

J.D. Drew walks and steals second base on what Jon Miller (and later Joe Morgan) called a "semi pitchout." Is that like a "partially blocked punt?" Then Bean walks Varitek. And here comes Wily Mo Pena, who seems like one heck of a candidate to strike out. Hey, what do you know? He strikes out. Then Pedroia grounds out and we go to the sixth inning.

Commercial observation: They just showed a Budweiser commercial, and the voice sounded EXACTLY like George Clooney. That can't be right, can it? You telling me George Clooney needs to do voiceovers for beer commercials. I mean, Oceans 48 didn't pay enough?

Sixth inning: Robinson Cano leads off with a single, which seems like a waste considering who is coming up for the Yankees. Maybe Dougie Baseball can come through -- AND HE DOES WITH A SINGLE. And it is a classic Doug single. It looked like he hit it pretty good off the bat, which of course fooled the outfielder. But he didn't hit it well at all. The ball dropped in front of the outfielder. First and third, nobody out, Yanks in business. And we're just one batter away from the man, Wil Nieves.

Sadly, Melky Cabrera hits into a double play. The run scores, so now Nieves comes up with nobody on base. Let's go pitch by pitch.

First: Ball. 94 mph fastball low.
Second: 82 mph breaking ball of some sort -- Nieves hits soft pop-up to short. Well, that wasn't as much fun as it should have been.

Me (9:12:01 PM): OK, so who beats a team made up of Yankees coaches? You've got Tony Pena behind the plate, Don Mattingly at first, Larry Bowa at short, Joe Torre at third, Ron Guidry on the mound. No way any other coaching staff beats that team.
Vac (9:13:18 PM): To bad Lee Mazzilli got fired. He'd look good in extra-tight doubleknits
Vac (9:15:07 PM): Your new yankee pitcher: Andy Pettitte
Me (9:16:06 PM): Yeah, what, Sparky Lyle wasn't available?
Vac (9:16:12 PM): Andy Pettitte: not nearly as effective as Lyle at sitting bare-assed on birthday cakes.

Me: (9:17:53 PM): Plus he's slightly older.

Pettite gets Lugo to fly out, then walks Youkilis. So it's Pettite against Papi -- this should be exciting, this great matchup between one of the toughest lefties who has ever pitched for the Yankees against the clutch slugger ... oh, never mind, Papi hits into a double play on the first pitch. The inning is over. Yankees lead 5-4.

Seventh inning: Yanks go up and down, 1-2-3, the highlight being a not-so-tense 382-pitch at bat between DiceK and Bobby Abreu -- including a clear strike three called a ball as the umpire gets back in the Abreu rhythm.

Vac (9:29:27 PM): Abreu's back to doing the Jedi mind trick on the ump.
Me (9:30:36 PM): Watching Abreu -- you know, I know it's better that all of us appreciate on-base percentage and all. But man, it's awful watching some of these high OBP guys. It's like what Pat Riley did to basketball with the Knicks.
Vac (9:30:32 PM): Baseball isn't supposed to be that dull. It's just not.


Commercial update: They just did a commercial for Cialis, where the narrator again reminded anyone taking this stuff that they really should seek immediate medial attention if they have an erection lasting more than four hours. Really? Does any male need this advice? And do you have to wait the full four hours? I mean, are you waiting by the phone that last half hour?

OK, MannyBeingManny just singled here in to lead off the seventh, so there might be some excitement now. Joe Morgan doesn't think Proctor matches up very well with J.D. Drew. And Drew proceeds to crack a double off the monster.

Joe Morgan = Soothsayer.

(Joe follows that up by congratulating his daughter for making the national gymnastics championships. Aww. I know, it's corny and borderline, but I've got daughters too).

Meanwhile, Mike Lowell hits a home run over the Green Monster. Three runs score. It's 7-5 Red Sox. Excitement! And it leads to the constant Fenway argument.

Vac (9:40:56 PM): In every other ballpark in America, thats an F-7.
Me (9:42:04 PM): I don't think so. He hit that on a pretty nasty line. I think it's over the outfieler's head for sure. Jeter's homer was cheaper.
Vac (9:41:44 PM): Maybe.
Me (9:43:21 PM): How many times do you think someone has seen a home run at Fenway Park and wondered if it would have gone out anywhere else?
Vac (9:43:30 PM): Every one that doesn't make it to Landsowne Street. Of course the funny part is, you get just as many screaming line dribves that would be clear home runs everywhere else that die a singles death slamming into the Monster.
Me (9:46:45 PM): The great question: How many home runs would Dave Kingman have hit had he played his career at Fenway?
Vac (9:46:40 PM): Good lord
Vac (9:46:44 PM): He NEVER would have gotten robbed.
Vac (9:46:46 PM): Not once.
Me (9:47:36 PM): All the guy ever did was hit long pop ups to left field.


You know, I asked that question on Kingman based on memory. And usually my memory is awful. But in this case, I was dead on -- Kingman started 18 games at Fenway Park in his career, and most of those were late in his career. He hit 13 home runs. Seriously, you put him in that ballpark, he would be in the Hall of Fame right now.

OK, we're going to the eighth. Red Sox lead 7-5.

Eighth inning: Jon Miller says that the Red Sox are looking to sweep the Yankees at Fenway for the first time 17 years. I'm trying to figure out: Is this is a long time? I mean, there are probably other teams that have not swept the Yankees at home in at least that long, right? Maybe not, though. The Royals did sweep the Yankees at home in 2005 -- the first three games of Buddy Bell's Royals career. He might have quit right then.

(I remember once talking to Gerry Faust, who -- this still amazes me -- went from being a high school football coach in Cincinnati to coach at Notre Dame. No stops in between. The Irish won Faust's first game against LSU and was ranked No. 1 in America. The next week, they led Michigan 7-0. Faust told me: "I should have take a photo of the scoreboard and quit right then. He was right. Michigan won the game. And it was downhill from there).

Me (9:56:20 PM): What does this mean if the Red Sox sweep the Yankees?
Vac (9:56:41 PM): It means the Yankees are in a little trouble if they dont get their players back quick.
Vac (9:57:02 PM): 1-6 (in the lineup) is still the Yankees -- 7-9 is like the Batavia Yankees.
Me (10:02:13 PM): And how about that rotation? Yikes.

Vac (10:04:22 PM): Wang returns Tuesday. They need him in the worst way.

Here in the eighth, A-Rod singles, Dice-K leaves to an ovation, and Hideki Okajima is in the game for the Red Sox -- this means that the Japanese papers will have absolutely nothing except for coverage of this game. But there's a bit of a Yankees buzz here. Robinson Cano singles. And Jorge Posada comes in to pinch-hit. Whenever I see Posada, I think of Opening Day ... wait, we interrupt this story to bring you this Joe Morgan quote on a 2-2 pitch that just missed.

"That was a good pitch from Okajima in that if he had been able to throw it over the plate he would have gotten Posada out."

You figure that one out. Really. Go ahead.

OK. Posada walks -- bases are loaded. ... Back to the story. Opening Day 2001, Yankee Stadium, game tied 2-2 in the sixth. The Yankees put runners on first and second, and Posada was coming up to face Jeff Suppan. Royals manager Tony Muser pulled Suppan and brought in a very nice and very young left-handed pitcher named Tony Cogan. He was a Stanford kid, smart, and he had pitched well in spring and had somehow made the team against all odds. Tony had never pitched above A Ball, I believe. Muser thought it would be a good idea to break him in at Yankee Stadium on Opening Day against Jorge Posada.

You don't need me to tell you that Posada hit a homer, and poor Tony was never the same. ... My favorite part of the story, though, is that after the game we asked Muser what he could have been thinking. Muser said he wanted to "turn Posada around." ... In his career, Posada hits 40 points as a right-handed hitter, and he slugs 50 points higher. That's the Royals, folks.

Quick update on the game: Yankees score a run to make it 7-6. Then Josh Phelps hits a rocket up the middle, that might have scored the tying run. Pedroia makes a nice diving catch. This is really a terrific game. It's 7-6 Red Sox going into the bottom of the eighth.

Vac (10:15:40 PM): God ... is there any worse tradition in sports than "Sweet Caroline" at Fenway?
Vac (10:15:46 PM): and heres the worst part ..
Vac (10:15:50 PM): they've started doing that at Shea, too.
Me (17:56 PM): You're kidding about the Sweet Caroline thing at Shea, right?
Vac (10:17:53 PM): I wish I were.
Vac (10:18:15 PM): That place isnt crappy enough, now theyre stealing everyone elses crappy ideas.
Me (10:20:20 PM): Why doesn't anyone sing along to "Walking Man?"
Vac (10:20:33 PM): That would be too creative.
Me (10:21:27 PM): I think I'm going to suggest that here. I mean, who walks more people than the Royals?


Papi flies out ... all sorts of crazy things happening in this game (including Josh Phelps catching for the first time since 2001) and Papi hasn't been a part of it. ... And here's MannyBeingManny -- you know, Manny was always one of Buck O'Neil's favorite players. Buck just loved watching Manny hit. And he wasn't bothered by the other stuff; he used to say: "Manny's a thorougbred. And you can't treat a thoroughbred like a mule." Manny rips a single to center, his third hit of the day.

The Red Sox leave two on though ... and we go to the ninth. Red Sox lead 7-6. Papelbon vs. Damon, Jeter, Abreu and A-Rod in the hole. This could be good.

Ninth inning: You have to love this -- sure, it's overhyped Yankees-Red Sox, and we're all pretty sick of it, and it's just April so this doesn't mean much. Still you have Papelbon against the guts of the Yankees lineup -- Papelbon hasn't given up a run all year. He could face three or four Hall of Famers to protect a one-run lead. Let's go pitch by pitch.

Papelbon vs. Damon:
Pitch 1: Ball. 98 mph fastball up and away. Yikes.
Pitch 2: Strike. 98 mph fastball that Damon can't catch up with.
Pitch 3: Strike. 94 mph splitter that drops like two feet. Damon swings over.
Pitch 4: Foul. 98 mph fastball fouls back.
Pitch 5: Foul. No speed gun, but it is really fast. Damon fouls it back.
Pitch 6: Ball. 90 mph splitter. Damon checks swing. Joe Morgan had called for the splitter.
Pitch 7: Fly out to left. Splitter that Damon tries to flick to left --but he hits it right at MBM.

Papelbon vs. Jeter:
Pitch 1: Strike. 98 mph fastball that Jeter looks at.
Pitch 2: Ball. 98 mph fastball that drifts outside.
Pitch 3: Strike. 99 mph fastball. Jeter swings way late. Original gun says 95 but it's obviously faster as a later radar gun confirms.
Pitch 4: Strike three. 99 mph pitch -- same pitch a bit more inside. Jeter swings late. He mouths the word: "Wow."

Papelbon vs. Abreu
Pitch 1: Ball. 90 mph splitter sinks low and out of strike zone.
Pitch 2: Ball. 95 mph fastball is up and away.
Pitch 3: Strike. 95 mph fastball nails outside corner. This guy Papelbon is something.
Pitch 4: Ball. 94 mph fastball up and away.
Pitch 5: Foul. 95 mph fastball, Abreu fouls it back.
Pitch 6: Ball 4. 96 mph fastball up. It's a walk (of course) and we get to see A-Rod. Yes. For once, it's fun to see Abreu walk.

Papelbon vs. A-Rod.
Pitch 1: Strike. He throws an 84-mph slider, first slider of the game. A-Rod is fooled.
Pitch 2: Foul. 95 mph fastball, A-Rod just a bit late.
Pitch 3. Grounder to third -- high fastball, A-Rod chops it down to third base. Game over. Red Sox get the sweep. And we are out of here. Thanks to Mike Vaccaro -- buy his book too.