The Winds of Fenway

Editor's note: I can't tell for sure, but I think this might be longest entry yet. It began as a simple look at Fenway, and like the Universe and Ben Affleck, it just kind of kept expanding. Which leads to the question: Is Ben Affleck still a legit pop-culture reference point for chubby celebrities? I haven't seen him in a while.

Tony Pena told me this story a few years ago: He was struggling in the minor leagues when the legendary scout, Howie Haak, walked over and told him that he'd better pick it up because the Pirates were down on him. At the time, they saw Pena as an erratic, no-power catcher.

"How can I get them to notice me?" Tony asked. Haak shrugged, chomped on his cigar and said something charming like: "That's your problem kid."

Pena was scared. He had come from nothing in the Dominican, less than nothing, dirt floors, poverty, banana fields, and he knew one thing: He did not want to go back. When Pena got to Buffalo in Double-A, he saw something right away: The right field fence was in. Way short. So he trained himself to hit fly balls to right field. Again and again in batting practice, in cages and in his dreams Pena worked on hitting those fly balls to right.

Pena hit 34 home runs that year -- more than double the number he had hit in a season before or would hit after. Pena thinks he hit 30 of those homers over that right field fence in Buffalo. The Pirates noticed. Soon after, he was an All-Star catcher.

I start with this story because today's blog is about home and road, and how Fenway Park has influenced the way we have watched baseball the last 50 years or so. So right up front, I want to say that I'm not ripping Yaz or Jim Rice or Wade Boggs for putting up big numbers at Fenway Park. A good player takes advantage of his surroundings. Muhammad Ali felt the loosened ring ropes in Zaire and leaned on them. Bart Starr felt the frozen field beneath him and called the quarterback sneak.

Dante Bichette breathed in the light Colorado air and saw a giantic outfield, and for five years (1994-98) he hit .369 at home (compared to .267 on the road). Because of that, Bichette had a long (14 season) and enriching (more than $42 million) baseball career. I admire him for this. At 29, Bichette seemed on his way to early retirement and a college coaching career.

So I'm here to praise Fred Lynn, not to bury him. It's just that I'm absolutely fascinated by the Fenway Effect. I'm fascinated in general by those extreme ballparks that give players a chance to put up outrageous baseball statistics. I'm a huge, huge fan of the 1996 Colorado Rockies, for instance. This was the year the entire Rockies lineup hit .343 at home and .228 on the road.

It was the year that Eric Young had one of my 10 favorite seasons ever.

Eric Young in 1996
Home: .412 batting average, 7 homers, 55 RBIs, 37 stolen bases.
Road: .219 batting average, 1 homer, 19 RBIs, 16 stolen bases.

Just look at that. It's a thing of the beauty. At home, Eric Young was Ty Cobb circa 1912 (with more power). On the road, he was Mark Belanger in 1970. You want to talk about a player who could do it all.

Obviously, Young wasn't alone. Everybody was a Hall of Famer at Coors in 1996. Ellis Burks hit .390 at home, Walt Weiss hit .337 at home, Dante Bichette hit .362 with 99 RBIs. Vinny Castilla hit .345 with 27 homers. Larry Walker hit .393. You might say it was a little bit out of control. Look at Andres Galarraga's stats that year.

Big Cat II in 1996
Home: .359, 32, 103
Road: .245, 15, 47.

Man, I love that team. Of course, it wasn't just that year at Coors. For 10 years, 1994-2003, Larry Walker hit .381 at Coors Field and .283 on the road. Bichette in his five prime years hit 105 homers at Coors, 41 on the road. And as every Royals fan knows, Neifi Perez bulked up his batting average by hitting .312 at Coors Field (vs. .244 on the road), thus convincing the Royals braintrust that he could actually hit, thus convincing general manager Allard Baird to trade Jermaine Dye for him straight up. Ah yes. Memories.

FENWAY PARK at its most hitter friendly was not as radical as Coors, of course. But certainly over the years, the Green Monster and the wind have helped create some Boston hitting heroes. The interesting thing about Fenway is how much it has changed over those years. For instance -- and you may not have known this -- Fenway was the toughest home run park in the American League last year. Big Papi hit 10 more homers on the road (32-22), which may not surprise you since he's left-handed. But Manny also hit more homers on the road and so did Mike Lowell.

Bill James says that Fenway stopped being a ridiculous hitter's park around 1985, probably because the new press box drastically changed the wind currents. Interestingly enough, Baltimore Orioles announcer Gary Thorne says that it was the players who actually changed the wind flow. "It was all for PR," he said.

There's no doubt that for at least the last 10 years, Fenway has been a much saner park -- almost neutral, really. It's still a good park for batting averages (I originally called it a "good average park," and realized that made no sense at all). There always will be a lot of doubles hit there, of course. But homers are down. In 2002, for the first time since World War II, Fenway actually rated as a better pitcher's park than hitter's park.

But that's now. When you look back over time, you can see what Fenway has meant to offense.

AL Batting champs since 1957
Boston: 18
Minnesota: 12
Seattle: 5
Kansas City: 4
New York Yankees: 3
Detroit: 2
Texas: 2
Baltimore: 1
Chicago White Sox: 1
Toronto: 1
The Whatever Angels: 1
Cleveland: 0

RBI Champs since 1957
Boston: 11
Cleveland: 6
Minnesota: 5
Baltimore: 5
Texas*: 5 (*includes Frank Howard's Washington Senators)
Detroit: 3
Milwaukee: 3
New York Yankees: 3
Seattle: 3
Oakland: 2
Toronto: 2
The Whatever Angels: 1
Chicago White Sox: 1
Kansas City: 1
Note: Cecil Cooper and Jim Rice tied for the title in 1983.

Home run champs since 1957
Boston: 9
Oakland: 7
Texas*: 7 (includes Frank Howard's Washington Senators)
New York Yankees: 6
Minnesota*: 7 (includes Killebrew/Sievers Washington Senators)
Milwaukee: 4
Seattle: 4
Chicago White Sox: 3
The Whatever Angels: 3
Detroit: 3
Baltimore: 2
Cleveland: 2
Toronto: 2
Note: Includes ties in 1959, '67, '75, '80, '81 (three-way), 82 and '91.

And so on. Now, part of the deal is that the Red Sox have had good hitters over the last 50 years -- Papi, Manny, Vaughn, Boggs, Rice, Lynn, Dewey, Nomah, Yaz, Tony C, Jackie Jensen, the aging Ted Williams and so on. But there can be no doubt that many of the biggest Red Sox years, the legendary years, were hugely influenced by Fenway.

Jim Rice's MVP season of 1978
Total: .315, 46, 139.
Home: .361, 28, 75.
Road: .269, 18, 64.

Comments: In 1976, the Red Sox put in the new scoreboard. Fenway had already been a very good hitter's park, but the scoreboard had some sort of effect on the wind pushing the ball up -- wind is always a key factor in Fenway -- and that turned Fenway into a pretty absurd park for three or four years. Couple that with young Fred Lynn, Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk along with still effective Yaz and Boomer Scott, and you have a team that, from 1976-78, hit 90 more homers than any team in the league, 30 more doubles, scored almost 100 more runs, etc.

Rice was one of the big beneficiaries. We'll talk about Rice as a Hall of Fame candidate in a bit, but for now we'll say that in his scary years -- 1977-79 -- he hit .350 with 82 homers and 230 RBIs at Fenway. On the road, he hit a much more Emil Brown-like .290 with 42 homers and 153 RBIs.

Fred Lynn's batting title in 1979
Total: .333, 39, 122,
Home: .386, 28, 83.
Road: .276, 11, 39.

Comments: Lynn had this monster season and won a Gold Glove on top of it and somehow finished FOURTH in the MVP voting. The winner that year was Don Baylor, who was essentially a DH and had an OPS almost 150 points lower than Lynn (not that anyone knew what OPS was back then). Of course, Baylor had more RBIs, which is the MVP stat. We're going to do a blog item on RBIs -- maybe even the next one. Bill James brought up an interesting point about RBIs ... stay tuned. Well, don't just stay tuned ... buy a book. And don't tell me you already bought a book. What you don't have any friends? Father's Day is coming up, isn't it? Mother's Day? Some day?

Yaz's Impossible Dream Triple Crown in 1967
Total: .326, 44, 121
Home: .332, 27, 74
Road: .321, 17, 47

Comments: Yaz was really good both at home and on the road in '67 -- this was his highest road batting average. In his career, Yaz hit 42 points higher at Fenway than he did on the road (.306 to .264). But there's no doubt the home run boost at Fenway really helped him win the Triple Crown: Yaz tied Harmon Killebrew with 44 homers that year -- Killer hit 23 of his on the road.
On other note: Yaz famously won the 1968 batting title with a .301 batting average. That year, he actually hit 32 points higher on the road.

Wade Boggs amazing batting title in 1985
Total: .368, 8, 78.
Home: .418, 6, 39
Road: .322, 2, 39

Comments: There used to be this myth that while, yes, Fenway Park helps right-handed hitters because of the Green Monster, it hurts lefties because of the deep fence in right. Of course, we know that isn't true. The park was tailored for a guy like Boggs, who didn't strike out, who could spray the ball everywhere, who (like Tony Pena) learned how to poke long fly balls the other way to take advantage of his situation.
I chose Boggs in 1985 because I recall reading once he did not fly out to the infield once this year. That might be a myth, but I remain impressed. It doesn't really matter though, four of his five batting titles were Fenway-riffic.

Wade Boggs batting titles:
1983: .361.
Home: .397. Road: .342
1985: .368
Home: .418. Road: .322
1986: .357
Home: .357. Road: .356
1987: .363
Home: .411. Road: .312
1988: .366
Home: .382. Road: .351

One other weird stat from 1985: Boggs hit in every situation except one. He was 3 for 19 with the bases loaded. He hit .388 for the rest of his career with the bases loaded.

Mo Vaughn's MVP year of 1995
Total: .300, 39, 126.
Home: .301, 15, 52.
Road: .299, 24, 74.

I bring this one up because it's stunning. Vaughn was an extreme Fenway hitter. In his Boston career, he hit 63 points better at home and aside for this year he hit 31 more homers at home. But in 1995, he was quite a bit better on the road.

Bob Watson's terrific half season for the Red Sox in 1979
Total: .337, 13, 53.
Home: .349, 7, 23.
Road: .319, 6, 30.

I will never for the life of me understand Bob Watson. He spent the first 13 1/2 years of his career drowning in the Astrodome -- the worst hitting park known to man. Year after year he would hit .300 on the road with double digit homers and 50 or so RBIs. Year after year, he would hit 20 to 30 points less at home, crack about half the homers and 20 fewer RBIs in the dome. It had to be devastating.

Finally, he was freed. He was traded to the Red Sox. And suddenly, his home park was Fenway Park in its prime. Imagine how freeing that must have been -- it had to be like taking TEN donuts off the bat. For a half season, he ripped doubles off the monster, flew them over to Landsdowne street -- in this beautiful park he could be a threat to win a batting title. He was a 20-plus homer, 100 RBI guy here for sure.

So what does he do? The second the season ends, he signs with the Yankees. He voluntarily goes to Yankee Stadium. A graveyard for right-handed hitters. Some people just don't know what's good for them.

OK, SO WHAT DOES IT it all mean? I have no idea. I think the general point here is that so much of what we see in baseball -- in all sports, really -- is driven by context. It will always be in the record books that John Daly won two major golf championships. The record books will not point out that he won one on an absurdly long golf course in Indiana, where his legendary length proved to be an absurd advantage, and he won the other at St. Andrews where you can drive the ball all over town and he was the only guy who could really hammer it through the wind.

Sure, context drives everything. Tom Brady probably would not be much of a quarterback had he been drafted by the Arizona Cardinals. Pete Sampras would not be considered one of the all-time great tennis players if every tournament was on clay. Ted Williams could not have hit .400 in Dodger Stadium in 1965. Babe Ruth would not have hit 60 homers in the Astrodome in 1976.

Let's go back to Jim Rice for a moment because every year I hear from dedicated Rice fans who are adamant that I should vote him into the Hall of Fame. Many of these fans are actually contemporaries who played against him and remember just what a fearsome player he was.

I've thought a lot about this. Rice does not hit any of the magic career numbers in baseball. He doesn't have 3,000 hits (or even 2,500), doesn't have 500 homers (or even 400), doesn't have a lifetime .300 batting average. He isn't too strong on intangibles if you're into those -- nobody ever thought of Rice as a great outfielder or some sort of clubhouse stalwart. He didn't walk. He couldn't run a lick. He hit into a million double plays.

So as I see hit, his Hall of Fame case is based on two things: (1) He drove in a lot of runs (eight times he had 100+ RBIs and he led the league twice); (2) he was, for a time, widely considered the most terrifying hitter in the American League.

(An aside: I think the "terrifying" thing has been a bit trumped up over time. Rice hit a lot of home runs -- more than anyone for a time -- but I don't know how terrifying he was. Managers must not have thought so -- he never came close to leading the league in intentional walks. He only finished in the Top 5 once. Yes, I realize he had Yaz hitting behind him most years, but after 1978 Yaz wasn't a particularly fearsome hitter himself. I don't know exactly how you measure a hitter's TQ -- Terrifying Quotient -- except to guess how scared pitchers were to throw to him. It seems apparent from the low walk numbers that pitchers did not back down from Jim Rice very often).

Anyway, if you're going to put Rice into the Hall of Fame based on the power of his offensive numbers and his overpowering intimidation, I think it's pretty important to see how much of that was based on Fenway Park.

Jim Rice's Career:

Total: .298 avg., .352 OBP, .502 SLG, 382 HR, 1451 RBIs, 1249 runs
Home: .320 avg., .374 OBP, .546 SLG, 208 HR, 802 RBIs, 681 runs
Road: .277 avg., .330 OBP, .459 SLG, 174 HR, 649 RBIs, 802 runs.

That's a big gap. Rice hit about 55 percent of his homers and RBIs at Fenway. Or to put it another way -- using Bill James' simplest runs created method, Rice created about 57% of his runs at Fenway Park.

Again, that's a big gap. For me, Rice's Hall of Fame case was borderline anyway -- add in that sort of home park advantage, and I just don't think he gets my vote. I will say this, though: There are other Hall of Famers who made the most of their home parks. Because I like you -- I must like you, I'm not getting paid for this -- I have looked at the hitters the last 50 years voted into the Hall of Fame by the writers (home/road splits only go back to 1957 -- I include Luis Aparicio and Brooks Robinson because even though they started before '57, they were not full-time players). Again, using that simple runs created method I calculated how much their offensive value numbers relied on their home parks.

Hall of Famer hitters over the last 50 years:

1. Kirby Puckett, 60% home value.
-- I had no idea he was such a Metrodome creature. Puckett hit .341 in the Metrodome, .291 away. He had about 200 more hits, 50 more doubles, 20 more homers, 100 more RBIs at home. I do wonder how we will look back on Puckett's Hall of Fame induction. He's a guy who seemed to get in quickly because there was emotion surrounding him. I know that Puckett has inspired and will continue to inspire Don Mattingly fans to keep working for their man.

2. Wade Boggs, 59% home value.
-- In his career Boggs hit .354 at home and .302 on the road. It's interesting: The big knock on Boggs from various critics was that he was a light-hitting guy who didn't drive in or score runs. The critics have been blasted for saying that, but you know what? On the road he was a light hitting guy (.394 SLG) who did not particularly drive in or score runs. Maybe that's why the critics saw that.

3. Ryne Sandberg, 57% home value.
-- Hit an even .300 at home, .269 on the road -- hit 46 more homers and 150 more RBIs at Wrigley.

4. Carl Yastrzemski, 57% home value.
-- Played in exactly the same number of games at home and on the road (6996) but had almost 300 more RBIs at Fenway, which is striking. OPS was 126 points higher at home.

5. Billy Williams, 55% home value.
-- Hit .302 at home, .278 on the road. The big difference is home runs -- hit 245 of his 426 in the friendly confines.

6. George Brett, 53% home value.
-- Royals Stadium took away quite a few homers from Brett, but he hit 30 points higher there over his career -- .320 to .290. Interestingly (at least to me), Royals Stadium was not a major factor in his run for .400 in 1980. He hit .391 at home, .388 on the road.

7. Carlton Fisk, 52% home value.
-- Most of the difference comes from his Fenway years; with Boston he hit .298 at home with 90 homers; on the road he hit .271 with 72 homers.

8. Luis Aparicio, 52% home value.
-- Offensive numbers didn't get him into the Hall of Fame anyway, but he hit 11 points higher at home.

9. Lou Brock, 52% home value.
-- A .300 lifetime hitter at home (.286 on the road) but he actually stole more bases on the road.

10. Paul Molitor, 52% home value.
-- Essentially the same player at home and the road except for batting average -- .317 at home, .296 on the road.

11. Gary Carter, 52% home value.
-- Hit the same number of homers (162) at home and on the road -- and more doubles on the road. His on base percentage was 26 points better at home.

12. Tony Perez, 52% home value.
-- Doggie hit fewer homers at home, but he hit 40 more doubles and drove in about 50 more RBIs.

13. Johnny Bench, 52% home value.
-- Hit .272 at home vs. .263 on the road and hit one more home homer.

14. Willie Stargell, 52% home value.
-- His run for 500 homers was probably stopped by his home park -- he hit 254 homers on the road and 221 at home. But his other numbers were better at home.

15. Ozzie Smith, 51% home value.
-- The sense was always that Ozzie took advantage of the St. Louis turf, but he was essentially the same offensive player home and road.

16. Mike Schimidt, 51% home value.
-- Hit for a higher average and walked more at home. Hit more homers on the road.

17. Joe Morgan, 50% home value.
-- Same story as Schmidt: got on base more at home, banged more longballs on the road.

18. Tony Gwynn, 50% home value.
-- Hit .334 on the road, the highest road batting average among these Hall of Famers.

19. Rod Carew, 50% home value.
-- Hit .333 at home and .323 on the road. Tough out anywhere .

20. Brooks Robinson, 50% home value.
-- He did hit 10 points higher at home -- .273 to .263 -- but he had almost 400 more at-bats on the road.

21. Robin Yount, 50% home value.
-- Numbers are about the same across the board; Yount might have had an even better career had he played in Kansas City. He loved Royals Stadium -- hit .332 there for his career.

22. Harmon Killebrew, 50% home value.
-- Killer has the closest thing to a perfect split -- he mashed homers everywhere. He hit 288 at home, 276 on the road.

23. Willie McCovey, 49% home value.
-- Stretch was actually a better player at home, but because he got a 400-plus more at bats on the road, he created more runs.

24. Eddie Murray, 49% home value.
-- What a surprise; Mr. Consistency was exactly the same player at home (.288 average, 242 homers) and on the road (.286 average, 262 homers).

25. Reggie Jackson, 47% home value.
-- Here's the first Hall of Famer who was actually hurt by his home parks. Reggie's OPS was 31 points lower at home. Maybe he liked the boos. He did spread out his homers (280 at home, 283 on the road).

26. Dave Winfield, 47% home value.
-- He hit 13 points better on the road with 190 more hits and 29 more homers. Winfield spent the first chunk of his career in San Diego, which was a dreadful hitting park every year he was there. Then he went to Yankee Stadium, the aforementioned graveyard for right-handed hitters. The only time he really played in a hitter's park was when he was 40, for the 1992 Toronto Blue Jays. He hit .290 with 26 homers and 108 RBIs.

27. Cal Ripken, 46% home value.
-- This is probably common knowledge among Baltimore fans, but I never would have suspected it: Ripken was a significantly better offensive player away from home. He hit 17 points better on the road (.283 to .267), slugged better (.459 to .435), and hit three more homers, 80 more doubles, scored almost 100 more runs. Wow.

His 1991 MVP is especially telling. That year he .358 with 18 homers on the road. ... The next year, the Orioles moved into Camden Yards, and Ripken hated it right away. He hit .237 with just five homers in what was viewed by most as a good hitter's park. He never really tailored his game to Camden. He hit .269 there with 85 homers Over the same time, he it .273 with 87 homers on the road.