Monday, August 13, 2007

Left field: Carl Crawford

Editor's note: We are reporting live from Kauffman Stadium, where Mark Teahen just hit hit first homer in 250 at-bats. We have David Foster Wallace-inspired footnotes again on the bottom of this entry.

Imagine for a moment that they gave out infield Gold Gloves. You may not believe it, but this was actually a verse in the original version of John Lennon’s “Imagine.” No, really, I saw it at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.*

Point is imagine that they did not break out infielders by position – first base, second base, shortstop, third base (you know, just in case you forgot the names of infield positions) – and instead just gave out four Gold Gloves to the four best defensive infielders in each league.

That’s stupid, of course. I’m sure you’ve already picked up the point, but I need to keep going through this charade. What would happen if they gave out four “infield” Gold Gloves? Well, I imagine that no first baseman would ever again win a Gold Glove. Keith Hernandez may have won 11 Gold Gloves and he may be considered by many as the best defensive first baseman ever. But I say he wins zippo if they’re just giving out infield Gold Gloves. You really think he would win over the second-best defensive shortstop in the NL (say, Dave Concepcion)? Not a chance.

No, I think that if they had an “infield” gold glove, they would probably go to two or three shortstops every year. A third baseman or two might win. A few second basemen would sneak in there now and again. And because first basemen would never win a Gold Glove, that defensive position would be viewed with less and less respect until everybody believed that you could win, more or less, with a rock playing first base (or, if a rock is not available, Travis Hafner).

Of course, you being a brilliant reader, you’ve already made the leap to the outfield where they DON’T separate outfielders by position but instead give out the Gold Gloves to what the voters perceive to be the three best outfielders. Because of this:

1. Last year, five of the six outfield Gold Gloves were given to center fielders, and the other one was given to Ichiro Suzuki, who now plays center field.

2. Since 2000, only four non-center fielders have won Gold Gloves. You know Ichiro was one. Well our AFLAC Trivia question (AFLAC, ask about it at work) is: Can you name the other three?***

3. No left fielder has won a Gold Glove since Darren Erstad in 2000, and no one in the NL since Barry Bonds in 1998 (according to our own brilliant reader Paul White).

Partly because of this, I believe left field defense has become vastly underrated in baseball today. I mean, from a logical standpoint: Is left field defense really THAT much less important than the other two positions? Sure, center fielders have to cover more ground, and right fielders have to make the long throw to third. Still, it isn’t like the ball never goes out to left. And it seems to me that left fielders have their own unique challenges. The ball slices away from them, each park has a different area of foul ground, the walls are of various heights and distances; I remember thinking this last year when Royals center fielder David DeJesus (an above average defensive center fielder in my opinion, even if he isn’t particularly fast) moved to left. He really, really struggled. He didn’t like the spin, he had trouble with the wall, he never looked comfortable.

So it seems to me that left-field defense is much more important than most people believe. BUT because most people believe left field defense is not that important, there are not many good defensive left fielders out there. Managers do need a place where they can put their clunky sluggers. The formula seems to go like this:

-- Clunky sluggers who are immobile but are into the game play first.
-- Clunky sluggers who are slightly faster than immobile and have minds that drift play left.

There are exceptions, and the first is obviously Carl Crawford. He’s so good defensively in left, you wonder why the heck he plays left. This is the only kind of left fielder who can win a Gold Glove – a guy who makes you wonder why he’s in left field.

Before I give the rest of the rankings, I want to introduce a concept called I’ve called RASS – the “Rainman Airplane Scouting System.” I believe is one of the most prominent scouting system used in America today. To explain it, I will use one of my favorites, Emil Brown. It is unanimously assumed in Kansas City – and anywhere else where people might care – that Emil is a brutal left fielder. He has always felt that this a bad rap, and I might even agree, but we have very different reasons.

Emil feels like he’s an athletic guy, he has a strong arm, and he says that people judge him poorly because he tends to go for the spectacular (“I’m a playmaker,” he has said, one of those quotes that can be hard to live down).

I think he might be getting a bad rap too, because of RASS. You might recall that in Rainman’s mind, once an airline crashes, that airline is forever unsafe. It doesn’t matter if the airline lands a billion planes in a row safely after that … the crash trumps all, forever.

So it goes with Emil Brown. Four or five times a year, Brown will make an unforgettably bad play. He will kick a ball. He will drop a pop-up. He will do a tango with a ball bouncing around in the in the corner. And it’s quite impossible to get these humorous plays out of your mind. So it really doesn’t matter if Emil Brown is actually an average fielder (John Dewan’s plus/minus system – which I believe is the most exhaustive defensive system out there – ranks him as the fourth best left-fielder in baseball and says he he makes more players out of his zone than anyone else). You can’t help but view him as horrendous because of those few plays.

The RASS system is especially true of actors (Kevin Costner could win four Oscars in the next four years, and I will never be able to get that hideous accent he had in “Thirteen Days” out of my mind****), football players (one bad interception or missed kick at the wrong time will ruin a player’s reputation forever) and presidential candidates.

The best defensive left fielders so far:
1. Carl Crawford
2. Shannon Stewart*****
3. Geoff Jenkins
4. Eric Byrnes
5. Alfonso Soriano

The worst defensive left fielders so far:
1. Josh Willingham
2. Adam Dunn
3. Manny Ramirez******
4. Pat Burrell
5. Jason Bay

Footnotes:

*They also have a cover of Tolstoy’s “War: What Is It Good For?**”

** I’ve been thinking a lot about books lately – well, I’ve been thinking a lot about what I want my next book to be. I have lots of ideas, all of them entirely unmarketable (The Duane Kuiper Story; Chess With Priest; What Bob Barker Meant To Me, etc). So I’ve spent even more time than usual wandering through book stores looking to see what sells, and it has made me realize that pretty much every single sports book that has come out in the last 10 years (maybe even the last 100 years) has promised to be some sort of life-altering thing. This is the year that changed baseball, the homer the changed America, the touchdown that changed our economy, the golf chip that cured cancer, the quarterback who changed the alignment of stars … either that or these books are the last something. The Last Innocent Year. The Last Dynasty. The Last Coach. The Last Hero. The Last Batter to Run out a Ground Ball. Damn, we’re staring at a bleak sports future. All the good stuff is over.

Some of these, incidentally, are outstanding books … I’m really not making fun. I know a little something about how you get pushed toward evocative book titles (The Soul of Baseball, after all, wasn’t my choice). Still it does make me wonder if every last, best, life-altering sports book has already been written. I might be stuck.

*** The other three are Erstad (we gave you that one), Larry Walker and Jermaine Dye. AFLAC. Ask about it at work.
(This is incorrect. As one brilliant reader already pointed out ... Bobby Abreu won a gold glove in 2005 playing right field. So add him in too. I may have missed others too).

**** There is no way Kevin Costner will win those four Oscars. None. I had a huge argument once on a bus at the Olympics in Salt Lake City about which actor was worse, Tom Cruise or Kevin Costner. I had Cruise, but I think it’s one of those Clemente vs. Kaline, Wilt vs. Russell, “If a tree falls in a forest …” philosophical questions that can never be answered. You throw Costner’s inanity in “Robin Hood” out there, and I’ll counter with Tom Cruise’s hideous Irish accent 'n “Far and Away.” Give me Costner’s self-righteous performance in “Dances with Wolves” and I’ve got Cruise’s torturous “Give me an Oscar” work in “Born on the Fourth of July.” In recent years, though, I’ve kind of grown to like the crazy Tom Cruise act, plus I thought he was surprisingly good in Minority Report. I’ve never thought Costner was “surprisingly good.” So I may have had a change of heart.

***** A reader suggests that I may have lost my mind by putting Shannon Stewart so high. I respect the sentiment -- I've never particularly liked Stewart defensively. But his numbers are really good. According to my statistical formula, which accounts for several defensive stats, he's the best left fielder in baseball this year. Scouting reports are generally good except for his arm. So I have him second. But I could be wrong.

****** A reader -- well more than one over time -- would like to have a brief explanation why Manny Ramirez ranks so low defensively. Well, I judge these thing by three things: 1. Statistics; 2. Scouting reports from people I know; 3. My own observations. I tend to put my own observations lower than the other two. So ...

-- Statistics. The John Dewan plus-minus system ranks Manny as slighly below abysmal. At last check, he was -14, which means that he is 14 plays worse than the average Major League left fielder. That is very, very bad. His zone rating of .698 is not only the worst among left fielders -- it is the worst among any everyday player at any position. Now, I'm sure the wall plays a role in all of this, but his statistics spell putrid.

-- Scouting reports. I've actually gotten mixed reports, but only because one of my friends just keeps insisting that Manny is underrated defensively. I trust him a lot, actually, but I have other friends who say Manny is every bit as bad as his reputation or worse.

-- My own observation is that when Manny's interested he can make some really nice defensive plays. But he isn't interested much. I don't see him every day, obviously. But I've seen him make too many bad plays out there to believe it's a fluke. That's why I have him as the third-worst in the game.

40 comments:

Anonymous said...

I can't think of an eloquent way to make this argument at the moment, so let me just say, Shannon Stewart sucks.

Sometimes passion has to trump eloquence.

And when it comes to arm strength, well, my baby girl's arm trumps Shannon Stewart's.

I mean, really, Joe.

Jim H. said...

Shannon Stewart wasn't bad in left for the Twins, especially when compared to those who have succeeded him: Jason Kubel, Jason Tyner, Lew Ford, Rondell White. These guys have no better arms than Stewart (Kubel's arm is powerful, but his aim ain't so hot). Stewart may have been overrated as a fielder, but he could at least hit a little.

I miss Mickey Hatcher.

Sam said...

Right-fielder Bobby Abreu won a gold glove, I know that.

Anonymous said...

So Joe, does Manny rank so low because of the RASS system? Because while he may not be the "playmaker" that Brown claims to be, he makes virtually all of the routine plays, some of the tough ones, and consistently garners a lot of assists.

I'd really like to hear your explanation of what makes him putrid. Or rancid.

Daniel

Tim Walker said...

Let me be blunt: I am *begging* you to write "Chess With Priest".

BEGGING.

And not just because I went to UT . . . That is an awesome, unique (and, yes, maybe unmarketable) book just waiting to happen.

Unknown said...

Cruise will forever get a free pass from me because of his performance in Magnolia.

wcw said...

Cruise in Magnolia: proof of the truism, 'there are no bad actors, only bad directors.' It was the role he was born to play, and luckily, he did.

I think you could turn the Bob Barker piece into a longish magazine item. Maybe the New Yorker. You start with the 'in-the-butt-bob' climax to get it out of the way, and move on from there.

Zach said...

You know, a month or so ago you were writing about the fantastic response you got to a little throwaway piece about Bo Jackson. Now you can't think of anything to write about that might interest the general public?

Anonymous said...

First of all: wcw, that was Bob Eubanks from The Newlywed Game, not Bob Barker...

Second: Cruise was born to play the role in Magnolia, but Costner was born to play the laconic athlete type in Bull Durham, Tin Cup, and The Upside of Anger -- Roger Ebert said "Costner reminds us that he is best when he dials down; he is drawn to epic roles, but here he's as comforting as your boozy best pal. " (And yes, I'm deliberately ignoring For Love Of The Game...). Being best when he dials it down is probably why he also favors westerns like Open Range -- but as Wyatt Earp showed, there's a fine line between laconic and just plain slow and boring.

Third: Mr. Posnanski, it doesn't necessarily have to be a book about how a sport event or player changed the world/universe/life as we all know it. But it could be an event that changed YOUR life as you know it, and you could use the boook to enlighten us on your arguement/perspective/experience to help us see a familiar event in a new light. Maybe a book with a series of events: one on Duane Kiper, one on Jackson, etc. Sort of a Mitch Albom-type introspective look at why the events were formulative to your experience.

But if that's way too navel-gazing for you -- then the Bo Jackson book must be written, but only if it comes with a DVD wit highlights of all these amazing events we hear about but can't find on YouTube.

Anonymous said...

The RASS system ranks QANTAS very high on the list. They have bonus points because the name is an acronym. Gotta watch Whopner, gotta watch Whopner.

Ted Kluszeski. Yeah.

Anonymous said...

Joe,

How about a post that looks at Kevin Costner and all of his baseball movies? Somehow he corned that market despite Tom Selleck hoping to do so. In fact, in the mid 80s when Selleck was Magnum PI with the Tigers hat and was taking batting practice at Tiger Stadium, you would have thought he'd be the baseball movie star. Somehow that didn't happen and all he got stuck with was Mr. Baseball; one of the most forgettable baseball movies of all time.

Costner was good in Open Range. That's one of the best westerns ever.

Anonymous said...

Joe,

Love the blog, recently bought the book, loved it as well. To the point, Jose Cruz Jr. won a gold glove in 2003 playing primarily RF, looks to be the only one other than Abreu that you missed. The rest are just a list of good defensive CFs... Wells, Cameron, Jones, Hunter, Edmonds, Wells, Cameron, Jones, Hunter, etc...

Jon Liepmann said...

Potential Book Titles/Topics:

Supersize Sports: The Burger That Changed Baseball: Instead of examining steroids, look at the even more behind the scenes problem of overeating in baseball...while people are worried about Barry's ever-changing hat size, take a look at the waist lines of guys like Bartolo Colon, Miguel Cabrera, and Dmitri Young and how their love of cheeseburgers is creating a glut of fat role models for children. I think more kids are eating McDonalds than shooting up on HGH.

or

Cruise vs. Costner: The LAST book written...by Joe Posnanski...ever.

Jon Liepmann said...

Plus CruisevsCostner.blogspot.com is most likely available...

Unknown said...

i would like to see you write a book about the battle throughout history between superstition (destiny, magic, myth, legend, karma, tradition, curses) and statistics (moneyball, d metrics, probabilities, coincidence, revenue sharing, paradigm shifts) to express the essence of baseball. two problems i foresee are 1) i think i am part of a very small group who might pay to read this and 2) the best title for the book would be "the soul of baseball" and this name has already been used.

Anonymous said...

Crash Davis was one of the all-time great movie characters. Talk about "the soul of baseball" - tom cruise can't come close!

Anonymous said...

I've watched almost every game that Manny Ramirez has ever played in a Red Sox uniform. For anyone to think he's anything better than below-average is asinine.

Manny DOESN'T make the routine plays. Sometimes he turns a routine play into a spectacular play due to his inability to, you know, make the routine play. He loafs after every fly, slides feet-first when he doesn't have to and just generally doesn't hustle.

His only asset is that he has an extremely quick release. The reason he has so many assists is because no one respects his arm so eventually he'll get lucky and throw a few guys out. Also, Fenway has such a small LF and Manny plays short, so it's significantly easier. Though I will say, he threw out Larry Walker in a big play in Game 3 of the 2004 WS in the first inning...

And don't give me that "he plays the wall" argument. As Rob Neyer pointed out, he "plays the wall" 65+ games a year for each of the last 7 years. He BETTER be the best in that capacity.

Anonymous said...

I'm no movie buff, but I've grown up seeing both Cruise and Costner. (I'm 26.) As I was thinking about this I realize that Cruise never carries the movie. I think he is stellar (and I mean stellar) in
"A Few Good Men", "Magnolia", and "Collateral". But I just realized: look at the talent he had to work around him in those movies. (Some may wonder where the talent was in Collateral, but I do maintain that Jamie Foxx is quite a talent, but that's another argument.)

Costner meanwhile has carried movies by himself. And done it well. Sure he's a disaster in other films (mostly epics), but he seems like a better bet to be THE guy in a movie than Cruise does.

Anonymous said...

So does Manny not get credit for his tremendous diving play on the cutoff throw from center field? That's probably the best play he's ever made.

Paul White said...

Since the topic of the day if left field defense, I'm choosing to use my Brilliant Reader mention (thanks by the way) as a personal soapbox moment.

I am an unapologetic Jim Rice fan. I believe he should be in the Hall of Fame. I'm also a SABR member and recognize the shortcomings of his game, so I'm not some lunatic who thinks Rice was one of the top-10 left fielders ever. I know his limitations, and much of the criticism pointed his way is true.

That said, I want to point out that two of Rice's regular criticisms are categorically untrue. First, he was NOT a bad defensive outfielder. Rice was a prime victim of RASS, in that he wasn't a good defender when he arrived in the big leagues, and that impression hung with him apparently forever. In his first two years, Rice's Rate scores, according to Baseball Prospectus, were 90 and 91. That's not good. Consequently, he spent most of 1977 as a DH while Carl Yastrzemski played left field. What few have ever admitted or recognized is that Rice spent that time busting his ass in practice, and when he became a regular in the field again the next season, he was not only vastly improved, he was actually, in many years, one of the better left fielders in the league. His Rate scores were never again as low as in his first two years and were frequently well above average - 107 in 1978, 106 in 1983 and 1984, 105 in 1986. For his career, he rated at exactly 100, or perfectly average, not a bad place to land after such a slow defensive start. Should that alone get him in the Hall of Fame? No. But should "bad defender" be used as a reason to keep him out? Absolutely not.

Second, I become highly agitated with morons who cite Jim Rice's double play totals as some towering black mark against him. If you ever see this again, recognize that the person citing the numbers is probably a moron. You see, double plays as just a flat number tell us NOTHING. If I hit third in a lineup where two on-base machines are batting first and second (like Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans, for instance) and both of those guys are slower than Jose Molina, and the team in question has a vast history of playing station-to-station baseball, guess what? I'm going to hit into a lot of double plays. This is particularly true if I'm a right-handed hitter who hits the ball ridiculously hard. Is anyone out there aware of the fact that when Jim Rice set the record for GIDP's with 36 in 1984, he came to the plate in a DP situation 203 times? That's 2...0...3. In other words, he faced more double play situations than anyone else in baseball by an enormous margin. He hit into a double play about 17% of the time, which barely differs from the 15% that was league average. He never led the league in double play rate, and was rarely even in the top-10. Rice’s high GIDP totals were almost exclusively caused by the frequency of his DP opportunities, none of which Rice caused.

On top of that, we now have run expectancy charts that let us know exactly how badly those double plays hurt the team. In 1984, with a runner on first and one out, the run expectancy across baseball was roughly .50, so a double play in that situation counts as a -.50 against Rice. On the other hand, if he hits a 2-run homer there, he not only puts the team at +2, but he also leaves them with roughly a 25% chance of scoring more, because there is still only one out and no one on base and the run expectancy in that situation is still about .25. So, overall, that 2-run homer would credit Rice with +2.25 in the run expectancy category. I've looked at every single one of Rice's 203 double play situations that year (Retrosheet is a marvelous thing) and calculated Rice's overall impact on the Red Sox's run expectancy for the entire year. When Rice came to the plate in a double play situation, the team's total run expectancy was 173. After leaving the plate in those situations, the team's net run expectancy was 181. In other words, Jim Rice, in all double play situations in 1984, when he was supposedly the worst GIDP offender in the history of the game, ACTUALLY HELPED HIS TEAM. They were a net +8 in Rice's GIDP situations.

Please, someone, for the love of God, explain to me how this can be spun into a negative?

Okay, soapbox moment over. (I'll almost certainly never be cited as a Brilliant Reader again.)

Paul White said...

Quick correction - Rice's 2-run homer would net him +1.75 in run expectancy, since he only gets credit for the increase from .50 to 2.25. I didn't make this error when doing the math on those situations, so the overall conclusion that he helped the team is still perfectly valid.

Unknown said...

Cruise's good performances coincide with working with Great directors...but I don't think that is abnormal.

Magnolia - PT Anderson
Collateral - Michael Mann
Minority Report - Steven Spielberg
Born on the 4th of July - Oliver Stone
Eyes Wide Shut - Stanley Kubrick
Mission: Impossible - Brian de Palma

That is just my opinion though.

Tim Lacy said...

As the resident Cubs-Royals dual fan, I'm pleased to see that Soriano made the list. He has a little stutter step that he "uses" just before catching the ball, and it makes him appear unsure of himself. But nobody throws strikes to bases, from the outfied, like he does. Wow. I can't believe he keeps getting assists because I can't believe people keep running on him. I'm compelled to believe that pro. players are not that bad of judges of their hits, so it has to be the case that Soriano's arm IS that good. - TL

Anonymous said...

A Cubs-Royals dual fan? What other teams do you root for, the Arizona Cardinals and the Oakland Raiders? Did you go to Prairie View?

Unknown said...

paul-
i agree that rice's gidp totals shouldn't exclude him, but im skeptical of that run expectancy argument. regardless of what the RE before and after his at-bats in those situations was, it is fair to assume that had he not hit into those DPs his team would be better off and he would be a more valuable offensive entity. when a team's best run producer (and arguable HOFer) is at the plate, the yield should be above the expectancy spread across the rest of the league, no? the question is how much better should it be.

seems to me, players that hit the homers AND avoid the DPs are better than those that hit the DPs. it is entirely valid, spurious as it is in this case, to suggest that hitting into lots of DPs is a bad thing. Simply pointing out that his team was better off in spite of the DPs doesn't mean the DPs shouldn't be considered negative.

as i said above, i believe you are right about rice. 203 is a lot, flat numbers don't mean much, etc... but pointing out that a guy was never the worst in DPs and was only rarely 1 of the 10 worst seems a bit weak, and i don't think net run expectancy (presented here without sufficient context) helps you. you are trying to prove he is HOF caliber, we already know he was productive.

Anonymous said...

Tom Cruise carried Rain Man; Hoffman stole his Oscar. Cruise's best performance until Magnolia. You forget this, but watch it again sometimes...he crushes Costner...

Paul White said...

Chris -

I didn't say the DPs themselves weren't negatives. They are, and dinging him for his DP's negative impact on run expectancy is completely fair. All I'm saying is that his performance in the other 80-85% of his plate appearance in DP situations outweighs those negatives, and that is NEVER put in context by his detractors.

You're right, a +8 run expectancy change in a third of his plate appearances one season isn't anything to build a Hall of Fame case upon, and I don't believe that Rice should be in the Hall of Fame just because of that. I believe be belongs in the Hall of Fame because his supposed negatives - DPs, defense - aren't nearly as negative as portrayed and don't come close to outweighing his positives.

Beyond just the anecdotal negatives that are portrayed by the voters, sabermetric measurements also undervalue Rice because ALL of them vastly overvalue GIDPs as a negative against the hitter, with no adjustment for his team's strategy, the players on in front of him, or the number of DP opportunities faced. Admittedly, some of that would be very difficult to account for, but then wouldn't it be more fair to exclude that negative weight entirely when it can't be accurately measured?

Double plays are simply not, as raw numbers, nearly as negative as they have been credited, and therefore Rice's WARP3, TPR and Win Shares totals are more negatively impacted than others we should compare him to (i.e., left fielders already in the Hall). Throw in the fact that DPs weren't even recorded officially until 1939, and it skews comparisons even further, since most of the left field HOF crop we should compare Rice to (Goose Goslin, Zack Wheat, Fred Clarke, Ed Delahanty, Jim O'Rourke, Jesse Burkett, Al Simmons, Heinie Manush, Chick Hafey, Joe Medwick, Joe Kelley), doesn't have a similar drag on their numbers. (And I haven't even discussed the negatives attached to strikeout numbers, which were only sporadically recorded until 1910.)

I fully recognize that Rice's case is borderline, and I understand why a lot of voters don't think he should be elected. But I do think that a closer look at a couple of his supposed negatives will make the case against him somewhat weaker, and that might matter on the ballot given how close a call he seems to be.

Anonymous said...

Mission Impossible? Arrghh. That is one of the only 2 movies I have ever walked out of. That and "Ghostbusters II."

Cruise has made some good movies (I must begrudingly admit. But I can also say, I will never ever pay to see another one. Its petty perhaps, but hey, its my money and after his recent scientology lunacy, I am done with him.

Joe C said...

Good thorough work, Paul. But don't Pete Palmer's Batting Runs completely ignore double plays? At least they do in my old third edition of Total Baseball. They credit him with +71 career fielding runs, too (though Fielding Runs are about as useful as fielding percentage), and yet he's still just below Bobby Bonds - Reggie Smith - Dwight Evans territory by TPR. I guess that counts as borderline (Dewey, at least, ought to be in the Hall), but that seems like the most optimistic possible way to look at him. (Incidentally, Bill James also describes Rice as a "pretty good defensive left fielder.")

Over at Baseball Think Factory's Hall of Merit, Rice isn't too well thought of -- he finishes badly behind those guys in voting, as well as Rusty Staub, Ken Singleton, Jim Wynn and Frank Howard. Some of the voters there rely on the WARP and Win Shares whose conclusions you argue with, but most of them have their own methods that also look at measures such as OPS+, in which Rice finishes near the bottom of all those non-HOF outfield candidates in both peak and career measures as a hitter.

What's your case for Rice? If it goes beyond the statistical and seeks to recognize his fame and respect (all-star selections, opinions of peers, etc) then it makes a bit more sense to me. But if you want to identify the players who did the most on the field to help their teams win games, I have trouble seeing it.

Paul White said...

My argument for Rice is simply this - once eras and ballparks are accounted for, he meets the standards that have been set. I looked up Baseball Prospectus' Translated Stats for the 18 left fielders currently in the HOF. Here are the median adjusted career totals for them compared to Rice's adjusted totals:

AVG: HOF, .299; Rice, .293
OBP: HOF, .370; Rice, .354
SLG: HOF, .531; Rice, .545
OPS: HOF, .900; Rice, .899
HR: HOF, 480; Rice, 494
RBI: HOF, 1505; Rice, 1471

Looking at just the Triple Crown numbers, which voters have historically loved far too much, Rice is over-qualified. His adjusted homer total is higher than 11 of the 18 left fielders in the Hall. His RBI total is higher than 8 and his batting average is higher than 7. He wouldn't be sneaking in as the worst left fielder in the Hall.

Let's say the question was posed to voters this way:

"The median left fielder in the Hall of Fame had a .900 OPS with 480 homers and 1505 RBI. We have a left fielder up for consideration who had an .899 OPS with 494 homers and 1471 RBI. Should he be elected?"

I'm thinking that anonymous guy would be elected unless some hidden negative popped up. And that's before giving the voters this basket of info:

"Oh by the way, he played his entire career for a flagship franchise, had no off-field legal scandals of any kind, was a solid-to-plus defender in most years, garnered all the requisite awards and honors, led his entire league in a variety of major offensive categories, both in individual seasons and for lengthy (12+ year) stretches of time, hit .333 in his only World Series, and saved a kid's life on the national game of the week on NBC."

And none of that mentions the racist environment of the city and team for which he accomplished all of this. None of this mentions that his career was cut short in part because the team doctor was also a part owner and treated the players in such a suspect fashion that he was sued by one of them and had to settle out of court for seven figures (see Marty Barrett and Dr. Arthur Pappas). It doesn't mention that he lost a year's worth of stats in 1974 because the team inexplicably refused to call him up despite the fact that he was in the process of winning the Triple Crown in Pawtucket while the Red Sox's incumbent left fielder was hitting .237/.312/.318.

I fully agree that he's not the most worthy candidate on the outside looking in. Dwight Evans and Bobby Grich and Ron Santo and others have been screwed. Agreed. But Rice had nothing to do with that. To leave him out when he meets the standards the Hall has already set for his position won't correct any of the wrongs that have been perpetrated upon other players. It would just be another wrong, and we don't really need any more of those when it comes to the Hall of Fame.

Anonymous said...

I can't get too worked up about Jim Rice being out of the HoF when he isn't even the best outfielder on his own team to be overlooked. I'm saving my umbrage for next year when Tim Raines gets passed over. If Tim Raines doesn't get passed over, then I'm still not going to cry for Jim Rice as long as Dwight and Darrell Evans are out. (See also: Ron Santo, Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, Albert Belle, Bobby Grich)

As far as the median HoF leftfielder argument goes, I don't see why we should be held to the lowered standards of the poor choices of the past.

I do agree with Joe about the underrating of LF defense. In 2005 the Indians had Coco Crisp, a centerfielder, playing left and it made a noticable (positive) difference in the overall defense of the team.

Paul White said...

You're kind of missing the point of the argument. Rice doesn't only compare well to the poorer left fielders in the Hall. He compares well to the MEDIAN left fielder in the Hall, meaning the midpoint. If he's comparable or better than half of the current Hall of Famers at his position, why exclude him? Because the Hall didn't set their standards higher? That seems sort of ridiculous. Why choose now to re-draw that line? Why not draw it before Bruce Sutter was elected? Or Kirby Pucktt? Or Tony Perez? Or Don Sutton?

Why re-draw the standards for Jim Rice? Because he wasn't a good interview?

Anonymous said...

No, I'm not missing the point. I get the point entirely. I just don't agree with it.

Rice may compare well with the median HoF LF (although you seem to have given him an extra 110 career HRs, so I'm not sure that he really does) but that median is dragged down by previous poor selections. I don't think we should continue to make poor selections just because poor selections were made in the past. You, apparently, do. As is your right.

As far as why choose now to redraw that line, well, it's never a bad idea to stop doing things poorly. Do I wish the line had been drawn before Sutter and Perez? Yes, I do. The fact that it wasn't, however, in no way obligates me to support the induction of other undeserving players any more than the fact that I already have some cavities means that there's no point in brushing or flossing my teeth in the future.

Regarding whether Rice was or wasn't a good interview, I neither know, nor care. The fact that I support Albert Belle should have made that obvious.

Paul White said...

I didn't give him any extra home runs. The total shown was from Baseball Prospectus' Translated Stats. Blame them if you don't agree with the math.

If I understand your argument, you feel that only people who would be in the top tier of existing Hall of Famers should now be inducted. Being a middle of the road Hall of Famer, by current standards, isn't good enough. You have to be above Hall of Fame average to be inducted.

Two outcomes I see from that. First, you're going to make the current crop of poor selections, The Chick Hafey Group, look even worse by comparison. That might be a good thing, in that it may someday force the Hall to remove those guys. But since that is decidedly unlikely, I don't see where making a large percentage of the Hall's prior selections look unworthy serves the greater godo of baseball. It cheapens the reputation of the institution as a whole, in my view.

Second, even if those poor selections were removed, all you would be doing is setting a new arbitrary "worst" player who should be included. Someone has to be the worst player in the Hall of Fame, it's just a fact. So who determines that cutoff? The Veterans Committee and BBWAA have both failed miserably so, by most accounts, since both bodies have inducted players who most observers feel were good selections.

The Hall seems unwilling to correct them, so, again, I don't see why those accepted standards should be altered now. I'd let in the Rices, Belles, and Grichs and just have a larger overall group in the Hall, because I don't see the point in continuing to claim that Heinie Manush and Chick Hafey and Goose Goslin are fully-recognized Hall of Famers while Jim Rice and Indian Bob Johnson and Minnie Minoso aren't. Why perpetuate that lunacy?

Joe C said...

Wow! I had trouble believing that Rice really was at the median OPS for a Hall LF, so I made up a chart myself, and sure enough there he is. (No mistrust implied, of course.)

He's not that far off in playing time either -- just about 5% fewer AB than a median Hall LF, one season or so less.

So let's look a little closer.
1) If you take the small step of correctly weighting OBP higher than SLG, you've got EQA, and there he drops to a three-way tie for 12th.
2) If you multiply that by playing time to make a career stat, it's EQR, and there he's tied for 13th.

Still not bad, right? Better than a number of HOF left fielders, certainly wouldn't bring down the standards of the institution.

But then you ask, "How many players can you say this about, who else is in Rice's class?"

I pulled up a list, somewhat arbitrarily chosen, of postwar non-HOF (but eligible) corner outfielders. I ended up with ten guys -- plus Rice, that makes eleven. Belle, Hondo, Jack Clark, Reggie Smith, Ken Singleton, Dewey, Bobby Bonds, Rusty Staub, Andre Dawson, Dave Parker.

Here's how he ranks in that list:
1) Translated OPS -- dead center, 6/11. 5 of those are above the Hall LF median and Rice, as shown, is one point below it.
2) Playing time -- 5/11 by AB. (BPro doesn't have PA readily available, but this doesn't seem worth the effort to track down at the moment.)
3) EQA -- 9/11, better than only Parker and Dawson. Seven of them are above the Hall median.
4) EQR -- 5/11. 4/11 beat the HOF median.

So Rice certainly doesn't distinguish himself from that group. If you talk about him as a candidate, you're talking about putting in another half-dozen or so corner outfielders just since WWII, and if other positions are the same we're looking at another thirty or so Hall of Famers. That's a 13% larger Hall at one stroke.

After doing the research I have much more respect for your position -- Rice is just about comparable to a median HOF left fielder.

The conclusion I draw from this, though, is that there's no obvious reason to look at him over half-a-dozen other guys, and to do justice to them all would require such a large boost to the Hall of Fame as to significantly change what we think of in our intuitions as a "Hall of Fame quality player." Clearly that definition has changed over time, though, and there's no reason why it couldn't do so again.

Thanks for the food for thought!

Paul White said...

Joe C. -

I agree with just about everything you wrote, and I want to make it clear that I don't, in any way, feel that Rice is the most qualified player currently left out of the HOF. I think a good many of the players you noted are equally qualified or more.

My only point in all of this was to make it clear that, given the standards that the Hall has set, Rice is well qualified for election. That might be viewed by some as an indictment of the Hall's past election processes, and I would agree with that in large part. But I don't see why Jim Rice, or Alan Trammell, or Bert Blyleven, or Andre Dawson or a variety of others currently on the ballot should be told now that they aren't qualified when each of them could stroll through the museum and point out the plaques of at least a half dozen players who weren't as good as them.

Matt said...

I think Manny is an underrated LF'er.

Joe C said...

Fair enough -- point taken. My last thought on the matter is that I would take issue, though, with a ballot that had Rice and didn't fill up the ballot with the other eligibles -- Goose, Bert, Trammell, Belle, maybe Parker or Dawson or others. That would be starting a new inconsistency of a different sort, one that would make me question if they were too influenced by hype and Fenway Park and "most feared hitter" mumbo-jumbo and not enough by what makes baseball teams win.

But if a voter is of the opinion that we've set the standards for induction, we might as well stick to them, and doesn't have a problem with the much bigger Hall that would result, I certainly can accept that.

Cheers, Paul -- thanks again for the discussion.

Anonymous said...

"But I don't see why Jim Rice, or Alan Trammell, or Bert Blyleven, or Andre Dawson or a variety of others currently on the ballot should be told now that they aren't qualified when each of them could stroll through the museum and point out the plaques of at least a half dozen players who weren't as good as them. "

In response to that:

1) You're grouping unlike things. Bert Blyleven is far and away over-qualified for the HoF. Blyleven isn't a borderline case, open to debate. He's a slam dunk HoFer, denied because of a stupid over-reliance on W-L record.

Rice, Dawson and Trammell are nowhere near as qualified as Blyleven.

2) Is that seriously your standard, anyone who is better than the worst 6 guys already in? I doubt it is, but what is your standard?

3) What do you have against Goose Goslin?

4) Here's a partial, off-the-top-of-my-head list of guys that need to get into the HoF before I start worrying about Jim Rice:

Bert Blyleven
Ron Santo
Minnie Minoso
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
Goose Gossage
Bobby Grich
Dwight Evans
Darrell Evans
Curt Flood
Dick Allen
Dan Quisenberry
Dale Murphy
Albert Belle
Keith Hernandez
Ted Simmons
Mark McGwire
Lee Smith
Will Clark
Jack Clark
Brett Butler

So, yeah, if every one of the above players are in the HoF (and I don't actually think all of them should be in) then I start wondering which of Rice, Parker and Dawson most dewerve admission. And then I have to admit Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Luis Tiant, Steve Garvey, Bobby Bonds.


By the way, there are lots of players who aren't yet eligible who are, nonetheless, more worthy than Jim Rice:

Tim Raines
Rickey Henderson
Jim Thome
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriquez
Derek Jeter
Mariano Rivera
Frank Thomas
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Curt Schilling
Trevor Hoffman
Roberto Almomar
Jim Edmonds
Barry Bonds
Craig Biggio
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Larry Walker
Chipper Jones
Jeff Kent
Pedro Martinez
Vladimir Guererro
Gary Sheffield

So after some consideration, if we all agree to allow just 60 more people to the HoF, plus the undoubted dozen I forgot, that is when I will start to think that maybe Jim Rice got a raw deal.

Paul White said...

1) I agree, Blyleven is the most qualified of that group, and I agree with Joe C. that a ballot with just Jim Rice on it is an incomplete ballot. But kindly note that I'm not the one that grouped these people together. That credit has to go to the BBWAA, who apparently looks at all of them as unworthy. In fact, if vote totals are to be believed, they feel Blyleven is the second-least worthy of the four, so please go argue with them on that topic, not me.

2) To clarify the comment you're referring to, I meant that each of those guys could point out at least a half-dozen less qualified players AT THEIR POSITION who have already been elected. That said, if you read any of my prior posts, I thought I made it clear that my standard was someone who was at or near the midpoint of players at the same position who have already been elected. Each of those I mentioned meets that criterion.

3) I'll reverse the question - if you're so against Jim Rice being inducted, why would you support the inclusion of Goose Goslin? Here's their respective neutralized stats, according to baseball-reference.com:

Rice: 390 HR, 1486 RBI, .298/.351/.500/.851, 128 OPS+

Goslin: 242 HR, 1483 RBI, .299/.368/.474/.842, 128 OPS+

Looks the same to me, yet you're pretty well set against one being in the Hall of Fame but seemingly okay with the other being in. I don't think I'm the one who needs to explain myself on this one.

4) I disagree with some of your list, but recognize your right to your opinion about them. I would only note that the overwhleming majority of those you listed AREN'T ON THE BALLOT. If all those guys WERE on the ballot, and I can only vote for ten, maybe Jim Rice wouldn't make the cut. But I don't have that problem, do I? If I believe Jim Rice is qualified by current left field standards and that Dwight Evans is equally, or even more, qualified by current right field standards, I don't really have to make a tough call for the 10th spot on my ballot between those two because the BBWAA, stupidly in my view, already dropped Evans from the ballot.

And yet, according to you, I'm supposed to ignore someone I believe is a qualified left fielder simply because the voters previously screwed up on a qualified right fielder. If we did that, we'd basically have to say, "Well, Bobby Grich is the 7th or 8th best second baseman ever, and the BBWAA rejected him. Ergo, the precident has been set and we should never again elect anyone who falls below 7th or 8th best in the history of their respective position." How dumb is that? Weren't you the one who said "it's never a bad idea to stop doing things poorly"? Why should we screw over qualified players just because previous qualified players were also screwed over?

Your final point about players who aren't even eligible yet just makes no sense to me. Essentially, it seems that you're saying voters should measure a guy not only against the standard already set, but also against what the future standards will be as well. That strikes me as an impossible task for a group like the BBWAA.