Opening Day Blog ... Live!

While driving out to the ballpark today, I came upon an idea: Hey, I should do a live diary from Opening Day, Royals vs. Red Sox ... hey, Bill Simmons doesn't have exclusive rights. Of course, the problem is I have no idea how to actually do a live diary, so it could be incredibly lame. I guess we'll see. Oh yeah, buy a book, please.

6 p.m.: Well, we're going to wrap it up here -- this looks like the Royals most successful opener since an 11-2 stomping of Toronto in 1979. Wow. Gil Meche throws a beautiful 7-plus innings, the Royals get more than solid relief pitching, Tony Pena Jr. hits two triples and makes a dazzling play, John Buck earns his cheers with a monster homer, Mike Sweeney doesn't get hurt, the Royals beat the Red Sox 7-1 -- seriously how much better can you get than that?

What does it mean? Well, there are all sorts of good feelings in Kansas City for a couple of days, anyway. And we know one thing for sure -- the Royals will most definitely not go winless this year. They can't take that away.

5:43 p.m.: Well, Joel Peralta was able to work his way through, and so now the Royals lead 6-1 in the bottom of the eighth ... and the veteran Royals observers are saying, "The Royals could use two more runs." Octavio Dotel is not available today, so it looks like the Royals will rely on David Riske should there be trouble in the ninth. Yikes.

A reader asks: Why did the Royals start Ross Gload over Emil Brown. I think as a Royals fan, you might want to get used to that. Gload is a Buddy Bell kind of player. He gives you a professional at-bat. Plays pretty good defense at first base and isn't bad in the outfield. Emil is -- let's be kind here -- more of an all-or-nothing player, and Buddy really doesn't like those kinds of players much. He craves consistency.

OK, we have to interrupt this answer to say -- Tony Pena Jr. just hit another triple. That's two: He's just the 25th Royals player ever to hit two triples in a game. So there.

5:23 p.m.: Well, Meche came out to start the eighth, but I have a feeling he's just going to throw his warm-up pitches and then Buddy will take him out so he can get the applause. I hope he doesn't do that ... I've always thought that was kind of a bush league move.

Nope, Meche will face at least one batter -- Crisp. He forced the groundout 3-1. He still looks strong. He then gives up a single to Dustin Pedroia (David DeJesus almost came up with it), who this time did not try to stretch it into a double. That's it. Buddy came to get Meche, and the crowd gave Meche a huge cheer. Standing O. The $55 million day seems worth it for at least a day. It's the longest start for a Royals pitcher on Opening Day since 1988.

5:11 p.m.: Oh my gosh, REO Speedwagon is now singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" ... I mean this is getting to be like that Greg Norman collapse at the Masters in 1996. It was interesting for a while, but after a while you just couldn't watch anymore.

Gil Meche had another 1-2-3 inning -- he's now thrown what qualifies as a Royals gem. And it looks like he's done. Someone is warming up in the Royals bullpen -- Joel Peralta. He pronounces his first name Jo-EL by the way -- like something out of Superman. Well, wait a minute, Peralta is not warming up. They're all just milling around out there. Now he's throwing again. Now he's not. You know, Buddy might bring Meche out to start the eighth -- he's only thrown 95 pitches.

4:55 p.m.: Well, Kevin Youkilis runs into an out, Manny Ramirez hits into a double play, and Gil Meche is now through six innings having given up one run. He's thrown 85 pitches -- and it looks like he will come out for the seventh. And John Buck just hit a solo shot -- so the Royals now lead 6-1. And as one PBW said: This now has the making of a major disaster.

Schilling went just four innings -- and John Blake has come through again. This apparently was Schilling's shortest start since April 1997. Well, he had a shorter start in 2001, but that was because of a light failure.

4:33 p.m.: Mark Grudzielanek -- now 3-for-3 -- clubbed a double to right to score two, then he scored on Teahen's single. It's 5-1 Royals. And now we'll find out a little bit about Gil Meche. How will he respond after the Royals gave him a nice lead? People in Kansas City have grown used to watching pitchers give leads back.

He started off well, striking out Coco Crisp (postscript: I don't like Coco Crisp as a player at all and I never have. To me, he's one of those guys who puts up good enough numbers so that you have to play him, but never good enough numbers to actually help you win. Could be wrong, though).

And here comes Dustin Pedroia -- the best ploy here might be to let Pedroia single and try to strech it into a double. Meche threw a terrific power curveball to go ahead 1-2. Royals general manager Dayton Moore says he throws the best power curve in the league. I don't know who else throws a power curve.

Pedroia hit a slow roller up the middle -- and Tony Pena Jr. made one heck of a play, ranged to his left, throws off balance, gets Pedroia. Wow -- no Royals shortstop has made that play since, er, Fred Patek? Actually, Angel Berroa in his first year made quite a few nice plays over the middle. That was a different Angel Berroa, though.

Meche followed it up with a power curve strikeout of Julio Lugo -- that's three strikeouts for Lugo. Good decision to lead him off. Royals still up 5-1 going into the bottom of the fifth.

The Royals just had their Dance Off promotion -- and I hate the Dance Off. This is where to fans dance off to win some sort of lame prize. I only bring this up, though, because one of the contestants was a young guy, probably in his 20s, and the other was like a 10-year-old girl. I mean, seriously, what chance did that guy have? Why even bother?

4:17 p.m.: And Gil Meche threw another scoreless inning -- the Royals lead 2-1 in the middle of four. Meche has really shown some great stuff. You can see why scouts love him. Sure, I've heard from all the Seattle fans who say: "He will break your heart." Maybe so. But, like the coach says in "Heaven Can Wait" -- "He's looking awfully good."

The baseball talk is flying all around the press box. One guy says the Tigers will be lucky to finish .500 this year. Another says Schilling is finished. Another says Ben Sheets will win the Cy Young. One of the best parts of Opening Day is the wild speculation based on one game. It doesn't matter how many years you've watched the game -- you can't help it.

Tony Pena Jr. faced Curt Schilling again -- and he drew a walk. So far nobody has predicted a batting title for Pena, but the game is still young.

4:00 p.m.: One great thing about sportswriters: We LOVE obscure stats. So when Red Sox public relations man John Blake -- good man -- walked through the press box and said: "The last time Curt Schilling issued a bases-loaded walk was August 7, 2005" some Red Sox writer asked: "Do you know who was the hitter, John?"

Because of what the scout said, we are not obsessively watching Gil Meche's toe and heel. He just struck out Julio Lugo for the second time today ... he has retired five in a row. He just threw a dandy curveball to Kevin Youkilis and followed it up with a 96-mph fastball that barely missed the corner. You have to say this guy's got some stuff. And he retired the side in order.

3:54 p.m.: Baseball is such a great game. Everyone was spending some time mocking Tony Pena Jr., who has the reputation (and history) of not being able to hit at all. So what did he do? He crunched a triple off of Curt Schilling. It's like Joe Nuxhall would say during those Reds broadcasts: "If you swing the bat, you're dangerous."

Tony Pena Jr. has now hit Schilling better than his father. Tony Pena was 0-3 against Schilling.

And the Royals cashed in when Mark Grudzielanek had a classic Mark Grudzielanek single -- a grounder between first and second. Royals lead 2-1.

3:39 p.m.: Well, Ryan Shealy earned a bases loaded walk, and it's 1-1 entering the second inning. Curt Schilling apparently threw 33 pitches that inning -- youch. That's the talk of the pressbox now -- along with the fact that Gil Meche threw 27 pitches in the first.

Do you even remember what the game was like BEFORE pitch counts? It's like trying to remember the world before the Internet.

Dustin Pedroia just tried to stretch a routine single into a double and was out by about 40 feet. Is there anything more embarassing for a player than running into an obvious out?

3:28 p.m.: You know, it really doesn't matter where you are -- St. Louis, New York, Kansas City or Burlington, N.C. -- there is a large percentage of any baseball crowd that will cheer like crazy for a routine pop-up. I think that when you go into any ballpark, they should give you a pamphlet -- how to be a good baseball fan. This would include:

1. When seeing a ball hit to the outfield -- WATCH THE OUTFIELDER. He will tell you whether the ball is hit well or not.
2. Don't scream "balk" when the guy whirls around and fakes the throw to second.
3. Get the heck out of the way when the guy on your team is trying to catch a foul pop-up.

The Royals have a rally already against Curt Schilling. How about this: Alex Gordon's first major league at-bat is with the bases loaded against Curt Schilling. Let's go pitch by pitch, shall we?

Pitch 1: A 94-mph fastball -- taken for a strike on inside corner.
Pitch 2: A 96-mph fastball -- Gordon fouls it straight back off the screen.
Wow he has a pretty swing.
Pitch 3: An 85 mph splitter, Gordon checks his swing and fouls it off barely.
Pitch 4: An 85-mph breaking ball that looked a little low. A little. Wise guy PBW says: Alex has earned that call.
Pitch 5: A 93-mph fastball fouled back. It looked high, but he's not getting any more calls.
Pitch 6: An 86 mph slider, he barely got a piece of it. Now, Varitek goes and talks to Schilling. What a great at-bat.
Pitch 7: An 86-mph split, outside and low, maybe, Gordon kind of waved at it for strike three. Still one heck of a battle.

3:20 p.m.: A scout says that that the big difference with Meche is how he lands -- when he lands on his toe he's good, when he lands on his heel he's not so good. It's hard to tell whether he's landing on his toe or heel, but Manny Ramirez just hit a rope to center fielder (nice play by DeJesus) and he walked J.D. Drew. So I'm going to guess he landing on his heel. He did strike out Mike Lowell to minimize the damage.

Just before the strikeout, a fan got in the way when John Buck was trying to catch a foul pop up behind home plate. There is something that happens to people when a pop-up is coming their way. While it's in the air, they have this feeling: "Oh, I'm going to catch this. Look how softly it's falling. It will just plop gently into my hands." Then, as the ball gets closer, they realize it's falling really fast, and a baseball is as hard as a rock, and all of a sudden they panic. Anyway, the fans booed the guy. He deserved it.

3:09 p.m.: OK, Gil Meche started off by striking out Julio Lugo -- it's a new year. Meche has already hit 97 mph on the scoreboard radar gun ... though honestly I have absolutely no idea how much faith to put into that number. I have a feeling they use the same radar gun they use near St. Paul Nebraska, where I got pulled over for speeding.
OK, well Kevin Youkilis just rocketed a single, and then David Ortiz roped a double to left-center to score him. So, maybe it isn't a new year.

2:59 p.m.: It just occurred to me that the new blog items should actually be at the TOP of the blog. I told you I was new at this. It took me forever to rearrange the blog. Sorry. The Royals were just introduced. One of the best parts of hearing team introduced is trying to guess who gets the loudest cheer and the weakest cheer.

Loudest cheer: Zack Greinke. No doubt about it. Fans are really rooting for Zack -- and one of those press box wags is predicting 18 Zack victories this year. For his sake, I will not mention his name.

Weakest cheer: John Buck. There were no boos, just sort of a disinterested: "Yay, I guess."

Curt Schilling actually got a nice cheer too.

REO Speedwagon sang the National Anthem, leading a PBW to say: "Theyve still got it." I don't believe for one minute they're playing at Wal-Mart tonight, but I'll check it out.

2:43 p.m.: George Brett just walked on the field to do a nice tribute to Ford Frick winner Denny Matthews, the longtime Royals announcer. Denny waved from the press box. What he couldn't have gone down the field? It's a half hour before gametime. But he got a nice ovation ... it's really good to see Denny get some love and respect.

Then, they did a tribute to Buck O'Neil ... you know, this year they are having a special person in the community sit in Buck's seat behind home plate every game. It's really a neat idea. Today, it will be Warren O'Neil, Buck's brother.

As part of the tribute, they have video of Buck singing "Take Me Out To The Ballgame" on the scoreboard, and while I realize I'm pretty biased about this, I honestly don't think there is anything that says what baseball means more than Buck singing that song.

One idea that I'm not as sure about: The Royals will have cheerleaders this year. I guess they're not cheerleaders -- they're spirit squad women or something like that. It sounds like a BAD idea, but let's wait and see before passing any judgment.

Curt Schilling was just introduced. Apparently, the car missed him.

2:16 p.m.: They're chalking up the baselines now. The fountains are going. Cars are lined up on I-70. The Japanese Media is taking pictures of -- I don't know, something DiceK related. So we are obviously getting close to gametime. Opening Day is great.

Mark Grudzielanek just got his Gold Glove. Nice moment. What exactly will he do with that thing?

OK, we have our first questions from the readers. Instead of just answering the question myself, I'll do a little poll of press box wags -- other Star reporters. Here we go:

How many wins for the teams: Looks the consensus is about 70.
How many wins for Gil Meche: Looks the consensus is 13.
How many innings pitched for Gil Meche: Consensus is about 190.
How many homers for Alex Gordon: Wide disagreement here -- we had someone say about as low as 16 and as high as 25. We'll go with 21.
How many ABs for Mike Sweeney: Wide disagreement here -- someone went as low at 174 and another as high as 522. Let's say the consensus is 425 or so.

12:48 p.m.: Well, Buddy Bell is ready. There really isn't anything much less useful than a pregame interview session with the manager -- especially on Opening Day when there's nothing really to talk about -- but Buddy was charming. When he was asked what he said to rookie phenom Alex Gordon to calm him down for today, he said: "I'm staying away from him."

You know, Buddy Bell really was a good player, a borderline great player. He had 2,500 hits, hit 200 homers, won six gold gloves -- it's a pretty special resume for a third baseman. I was thinking: Which managers were the best players? I quickly rank them like this:

1. Joe Torre, Yankees.
2. Buddy Bell, Royals.
3. Willie Randolph, Mets
4. Ozzie Guillen, White Sox
5. Mike Sciosia, Angels
6. Lou Piniella, Cubs
7. Mike Hargrove, Mariners
8. Phil Garner, Astros
9. Bud Black, Padres
10. Terry Francona, Red Sox
11. Clint Hurdle, Rockies (only manager to make cover of SI as a player?)
12. Bob Melvin, Diamondbacks
13. Ron Washington, Rangers
14. Ron Gardenhire, Twins.
15. Bob Geren, Athletics
16. Jerry Narron, Reds
17. Brucy Bochy, Giants
18. Charlie Manuel, Phillies
19. Ned Yost, Brewers
20. Bobby Cox, Braves
21. Jim Tracy, Pirates
22. John Gibbons, Blue Jays
23. Tony LaRussa, Cardinals
24. Eric Wedge, Indians
25. Sam Perlozzo, Orioles

DID NOT PLAY IN BIG LEAGUES

26. Grady Little, Dodgers
27. Joe Maddon, Devil Rays
28. Fredi Gonzalez, Marlins
29. Jim Leyland, TIgers
30. Manny Acta, Nationals (figure he should get used to that 30 spot)

11:30 a.m.: Got an email from David Pinto at Baseball Musings ... some local radio station somewhere decided to do a gag where they "reported" that Curt Schilling wouldn't make the start for the Sox today because had been hit by a car and had broken his arm. Apparently this was some sort of April Fool's joke, even though it's not April Fool's Day today -- isn't this like pinching someone on the day AFTER St. Patrick's Day for not wearing green? Stupid. Plus it's a bad gag. Why didn't the car hit his foot and open up a cut or something that would have made sense?

You know, it seems like a lot of people in the business don't like Schilling because they see him as a self-promoter and blowhard and all that, but I like the guy a lot. One, I admire people who perform well on the biggest stage -- to me, that's the greatest thrill in sports. I don't know if clutch-performance exists as a grand concept, but it's fun to watch when it happens. Two, I like people who speak their mind whether you agree or not -- and he does that.

And three is personal ... For Game 1 of the 2001 World Series, I wrote a column about Schilling and his father. Woke up early the next morning in the hotel, had my coffee, went to check the email ... and there was a thank you email from Curt Schilling. I know, this really does not disprove the self-promoter theory, but I thought it was very nice. OK, heading downstairs to see what the boys have to say. Back soon.

11:01 a.m.: So you already know that REO Speedwagon sang the national anthem at the Cardinals game yesterday ... well, they're singing it here in Kansas City today as well. There are countless jokes to be made here -- as Vac pointed out, REO Speedwagon was done the LAST time the Royals won the World Series. But I bring this up now to show you one of the saddest/funniest things, I've ever seen:

The REO Speedwagon upcoming Tour Dates

April 21: Ladsdon, SC, Exchange Park Fairgrounds.
May 4: Norman, Okla., Riverwind Casino.
May 5: Thackerville, Okla., Winstar Casino.
May 12: Shelton, Wash., Little Creek Casino.
May 16: Victorville, Calif., San Bernardino County Fair.
Sept. 14: Cape Girardeau, MO, Southeast Missouri Fair Arena Park.

Two things come to mind. (1) When you're looking at your tour schedule, and Thackerville is a highlight, don't you think about cashing in those "Keep on Loving You" residuals and get a place on the beach. (2) Are there no County Fairs between May 16 and Sept. 14?

10:45 a.m.: Just got out to Kauffman Stadium -- there's a guy mowing the infield right now. He appears to be using some sort of manual mower ... I realize the Royals are a small market club, but come on.
Had an inspirational moment on the drive over. I was driving on I-435 and a car went blurring by in the left lane -- I mean this guy was flying. I looked over, and there was a blue Royals flag flapping out of the driver's window. Here was a Royals' fan really ready to get the season started. It's the magic of Opening Day.

Home Run Derby Part II

We continue with our look at the single-season home run record holders for every team in baseball:

Milwaukee Brewers, 45, Richie Sexson (2001 and 2003), Gorman Thomas (1979)

From 1978-1980, Gorman Thomas played 455 games (he played all 162 in 1980) – all of them in centerfield. I’m trying to think if there has ever been a slower man to play 455 games in centerfield. I doubt it. From what I can gather from memory and talking to scouts plus old Brewers fans, Thomas was actually pretty decent out there – he didn’t make errors, and he seemed to get to the ball well enough. But man, he was Gorman Thomas, he was huge, and he was slow, and it’s just hard to think of him in centerfield.

This actually touches on a point about today's Kansas City Royals. The Royals have David DeJesus in center, and he’s a very good centerfielder. One of the better defensive centerfielders in the American League, I would say. He gets excellent jumps on the ball. But DeJesus is genuinely slow – people don’t want to believe that. They want to believe his stolen base numbers (19 steals, 19 caught) are an anomaly. No. He's OK, once he gets going, but it takes him a long time to get going. In the words of one scout: “He can’t run at all. I saw him lay down a perfect bunt, absolutely perfect, and he got out of the box, and he ran hard, and he wasn’t even in the television picture when the ball was caught by the first baseman.”

DeJesus makes up for his lead feet with his jumps in the outfield and with his instincts on the bases (he was ranked fifth last year in baserunning by the Bill James Handbook). But the Royals – like all baseball organizations – value speed in center field. So last year they got Joey Gathright who is MUCH faster than DeJesus, and they put him in center. Trouble was, Gathright is not nearly as good a centerfielder as DeJesus. This spring, the Royals tried the superior athlete Mark Teahen in center. Well, DeJesus is a lot better in center than Teahen is too. Like I say, DeJesus really is a good centerfielder. But he’s slow, so you can bet the Royals will keep looking.

Minnesota Twins, 49, Harmon Killebrew (1964 and 1969).

Killer actually has nine of the Top 11 spots – Roy Sievers is the only other player to break through. ... Until last year, the Twins had a very similar home run streak to the Royal – they did not have anyone hit THIRTY home runs from 1988-2005. Then Morneau hit 34 homers last year, and everyone got so excited they named him MVP.

Washington Nationals, 46, Alfonso Soriano (2006)

You might not remember this – it has been a whole year now – but there were a lot of people (a LOT of people) who thought Washington trading Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge to Texas for Alfonso Soriano constituted one of the worst trades in baseball history. Brad Wilkerson! I guess there are a lot of people who do not like Soriano. I’ve always liked the guy. I agree with Unnamed Scout – to me, you live with his quirks, his defensive liabilities, his swings and misses, and you walk away with 40 homers, 40 steals, 100 RBIs, 100 runs.

New York Mets: 41, Todd Hundley (1996)

OK, I was trying to think: How many Major League fathers are better than their Major League sons, and vice versa? Let's take a look at a few:

Father/Son Comparison

Alomar: Sons. Roberto and Sandy Jr. are both better.
Alou: Son. Moises I think barely beats Felipe.
Armas: Father. Tony Sr. led league in homers twice.
Barfield: TBD. But father Jesse was an outstanding player.
Bell: Father. Buddy was one heck of a player.
Bonds: Son. Bobby was good, but nobody (not even the government) beats Barry.
Boone: Son. It's close, but Bret was probably the best.
Burroughs: Father. Jeff won an MVP award.
Cruz: Father. Jose Sr. was a vastly underrated player.
Fielder: TBD. But Cecil will be tough to beat.
Griffey: Son. Junior's better, but Senior's underrated.
Hundley: Son. Another close one. Todd did hit 41 homers one year.
Kendall: Son. Jason is better, but Fred is funnier.
LaRoche: Son. Adam hits homers, but Dave threw the LaBob.
Matthews: Father. Both All-Stars but Sarge could really hit.
Oliver: Father. Darren’s had a nice career, but Bob hit 27 homers for Royals in ‘70.
Perez: Father. Doggie wins by a landslide.
Spezio: Tie. They're almost the same player.
Swisher: Son. Nick wins big.
Wright: Father. Jaret has better stuff, but Clyde won 22 one year.

I realize this isn’t a complete list, but it’s complete enough. I’ve got nine for the sons, eight for the Dads and three that are ties or to be determined.

New York Yankees: 61, Roger Maris (1961)

I despise the Yankees, of course. That’s my birthright as a Clevelander who loves Kansas City. But I cannot begrudge their history. We’ve gone through this goofy home run surge the last 15 years or so, and yet there are no Todd Hundleys, Richie Sexsons or Brady Andersons in the Yankees Top 10. Nope. It still goes Maris, Ruth, Ruth, Ruth, Mantle, Ruth, Mantle, Ruth, Gehrig, Gehrig. Even A-Rod hasn’t broken into that Top 10. Bob Shepherd should be proud – God, America and the New York Yankees.

Oakland A’s: 58, Jimmie Foxx, (1932)

Can a record still count when the team has moved TWICE since you set it? I say no. I say Foxx has the Philadelphia Athletics record, Bob Cerv has the Kansas City Athletics record (38 homers in 1958), and Mark McGwire has the Oakland A’s record with 52 homers in 1996.

Here’s something about McGwire: He hit one triple in his last 5,330 at-bats. Never been a streak quite like it. Mac hit it off Trevor Hoffman in 1999 – a long fly ball to right field. I can only imagine where the right fielder was playing. McGwire hit six triples in his career – which is still the lowest total for anyone with more than 5,000 at-bats.

Philadelphia Phillies: 58, Ryan Howard (2006)

Did I tell you the story about Buck O’Neil and Ryan Howard? Oh, I did. You know you can still buy the book here. Just in time for Opening Day. Hey, this is supposed to be a promotional blog, you know.

How many home runs do we think Mike Schmidt would hit in this little bandbox of a ballpark they call Citizens Bank Park? I don’t know, but I was surprised to see that Veteran’s Stadium was, for most of Schmidt’s career, a good hitter’s park. By the way, Schmidt is pretty talkative these days, isn’t he? Now, the guy's a book critic -- I just got an advance copy of Frank Deford's new baseball novel "The Entitled" (excellent so far, 100 pages in) and there on the front, you see: “The Entitled is a baseball masterpiece.” – Mike Schmidt.

Odds on who from the 70s and 80s becomes the cranky veteran:

Joe Morgan: EVEN
Mike Schmidt: 3-1
Dale Murphy: 5-1
Tom Seaver: 10-1
Steve Carlton: 50-1

Pittsburgh Pirates: 54, Ralph Kiner, 1949.

Anytime you put a Ralph Kiner into the Hall of Fame, you pretty much open the door for about 500 arguments. You look at the 10 Kiner comparables on the Baseball Reference page, and one is in the Hall of Fame (Larry Doby – in the Hall for both his playing and his social contribution) and the other nine probably won’t get anywhere close – Darry Strawberry is his No. 1 comp. Rocky Colavito, Kiner's No. 6 comp, got two Hall of Fame votes in 1974.

Of course, you could argue that Kiner was unique. He had a very short career, but he led the National League in home runs seven straight years. He walked a whole bunch, so he had a .398 on-base percentage. He hit 40-plus homers, drove in 100-plus runs and scored 100-plus runs five straight years.

Still, you put a guy with 1451 hits, 369 homers and a .279 lifetime batting average in the Hall – and every player lobbying group from Albert Belle to Don Mattingly to Jay Buhner will show you 100 reasons why their man was better than Kiner. Oh well.

San Diego Padres, 50, Greg Vaughn, 1998

Wow. Greg Vaughn. It’s easy to forget that in the late 1990s, he was actually an offensive threat. The Padres have an odd homer list – Vaughn is No. 1, so that’s odd enough. Then you have Phil Nevin with his flukey 41 homer season in 2001. Then comes Ken Caminiti’s steroid-enhanced 1996, when he hit 40.

So, for me, the Padres record should belong to the tragically underappreciated Nate Colbert, who twice (1970 and 1972) hit 38 home runs for terrible Padres teams in a horrendous hitting ballpark. Both years, he 22 of those homers on the road; he also hit about 50 points higher on the road too. Back problems, sadly, ended his career at 30.

San Francisco Giants: 73, Barry Bonds, 2001.

The New York Giants record belongs to Willie Mays and Johnny Mize, who each hit 51. … I don’t really have anything to add to the Barry Bonds story, but there is something worth thinking about. If indeed this steroid thing does hang Bonds and keep him from going into the Hall of Fame, then the Baseball Hall of Fame might be without:

No. 1 guy in hits (Rose).
No. 1 guy in games played (Rose).
No. 1 guy in times on base (Rose)
No. 1 guy in home runs (Bonds, probably).
No. 7 guy in home runs (Mark McGwire)
No. 1 guy in walks (Bonds)
No. 3 guy in batting average (Joe Jackson)
No. 4 guy in batting average (Lefty O’Doul)
No. 3 guys in ERA+: (Joe Wood and Dan Quisenberry)
No. 5 guy in strikeouts (Bert Blyleven)

We're almost at the point where we could put together a better team of NON Hall of Famers than people in the Hall. And Buck O'Neil could manage it.

Seattle Mariners: 56, Ken Griffey Jr. (1997 and 1998)

I think, most people during the 1990s would have said that Junior was the best player in Baseball. The "Best Player in Baseball" is sort of an honorific title – it’s not exactly something you can quantify. It seems to be made up of some mixture of batting average, home runs, speed, defense and charisma. Junior never was much of a stolen base threat, but he actually hit more homers in the 1990s than Bonds, and he was regarded as a superior center fielder (there seems to be a feeling now that he was never as good in centerfield as his reputation – I think that is in large part because of the way he has broken down over the last few years. I remember him being pretty darned good out there).

Here, is a guess at the players who would have received that “best in baseball” tag for the last few decades.

2000-06: Albert Pujols
1990-99: Ken Griffey.
1980-89: Mike Schmidt
1970-79: Joe Morgan
1960-69: Hank Aaron
1950-59: Willie Mays
1940-49: Joe DiMaggio and Stan Musial
1930-39: Lou Gehrig
1920-29: Babe Ruth
1910-19: Ty Cobb
1900-09: Honus Wagner
1890-99: Ed Delahanty
1880-89: Dan Brouthers
1870-79: Cap Anson

St. Louis Cardinals: 70, Mark McGwire (1998)

I like to kid Cardinals fans about that whole “Best fans in baseball” tag. Some take it well. Some don’t. Hey, when you’re the Kansas City columnist, it’s your civic duty to try and stir up something with St. Louis.

But there is a point here to be made: What constitutes a great baseball fan? To me, a great baseball fan is the one who has suffered through awful season after awful season but keeps coming to the ballpark. Maybe that's what comes from growing up in Cleveland.

This is not something St. Louis fans have had to deal with. Over the last 50 or so years, the Cardinals have almost never been bad. They were Gibson great in the 1960s. They were good in the early 1970s. They were pretty bad from 1976-80 – they had a losing record three of those years. But they weren’t death-defying, 100-loss, oh-my-God-the-world-is-ending bad.

They went to the World Series three times in the 1980s, and then they were bad in 1990 – that was the year Todd Zeile led the team with 15 home runs. They immediately perked up in 1991 under Joe Torre, and they were mostly good for the rest of the 1990s. Of course they’ve made the playoffs every year but one this decade.

This is not to downplay the passion Cardinals fans feel for their team – I think that’s obvious and has been, you know, fairly well documented. I’m just saying that the BEST fans in baseball might be the ones you saw at the ballpark in Kansas City in August last year, in the midst of a fourth 100-loss season in five years. They might be those people in Tampa who sit in that depressing Tropicana Nightmare to watch horrific baseball in a division where they have 0.00 percent chance of making the playoffs. They might be those Brewers fans who have now gone 14 seasons without an above .500 record.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: 34, Jose Canseco (1999)

How, in the end, are we supposed to judge Jose Canseco’s career? He hit 462 home runs – 30th overall right now and eight of those players are active. He hit 30 homers for four different teams. He’s the first guy to have a 40-homer, 40-steal season. He actually scored above 100 on Bill James HOF Monitor, which is supposed to estimate how likely it is that a player will make it into the Hall (Bill apparently did not have a “Was this guy a complete goofball?” qualifier). He blew the doors off of steroids in baseball, he had a ball bonk off his head for a home run, he walked seven straight appearances, he once rescued a lost owl and he may or may not have dated Madonna. He is also Tampa Bay’s home run record holder – somehow that seems right.

Texas Rangers: 57, Alex Rodriguez (2002)

I was asking a friend of mine – an Australian sportswriter named Robert Lusetich – if Alex Rodriguez would be recognized in Australia. This came up because we were eating in a South Beach restaurant and A-Rod walked in, and it was quite the scene.

Robert told a great story about how he was once at a sports luncheon in America, it was quite a few years ago, and the master of ceremonies, apropos of nothing, said: “Ladies and gentlemen, we’d like to introduce a great sportsman of the past, Mr. Garfield Sobers.” Well, this older guy stands up, and everybody applauds, and of course nobody in the room has any idea who this guy is – except Robert. Because (as you probably know) Garfield Sobers might be the greatest Cricketer (Cricketeer? Cricket player?) of all time.

Well, Robert was so excited to walk over and talk to him, and they talked for quite a long time, and nobody else cared.

“Of course, it’s different in Australia,” he said. “They’re aware of baseball. But not too aware.”

Finally Robert determined that people in Australia would definitely recognize Barry Bonds, they might recognize Derek Jeter, and they most definitely would not know A-Rod.

Toronto Blue Jays: 47, George Bell (1987)

Jose Canseco is second with 46 … When you look at the last 40 or so MVP awards, you could argue that the two worst choices were both in 1987, when George Bell was selected over Alan Trammell and Andre Dawson was selected over, well, about 10 people.

The Dawson choice is utterly inexplicable. Yes, a whole bunch of guys were better than him, but that’s not why it’s inexplicable, that happens all the time. Dawson hit 49 homers and drove in 137 – both league leading totals – and MVP voters are always seduced by those power numbers. No, what’s inexplicable is that the Cubs were awful, and voters always put a lot of emphasis on how team does. That’s just a weird one.

Bell over Trammell is more easily explained – Bell hit 47 homers and led the league with 134 RBIs and his Blue Jays were good. Trouble is, his Blue Jays were not as good as Trammell’s Tigers. And when you compare the seasons, you can see pretty clearly that Trammell was better.

Offensively, I think Trammell was better. Trammell hit .343 to Bell’s .308. His on-base percentage was 50 points higher -- tough to overcome that big an advantage. Yes, Bell hit more homers (47-28), drove in more runs (134-104) and scored more runs (111-109). But Trammell stole more bases (21-2) and played in a tougher hitter’s ballpark.

That’s just offense. Defensively, Trammell was a shortstop and a very good one. Bell was an outfielder and a lousy one (here’s an interesting thing … it says here Bell actually played a game at second base in ’87 – how did that happen?). There is absolutely no way that George Bell was more valuable in 1987 than Alan Trammell, and the sad part is that the effects are still being felt. Trammell seems to be getting no traction at all as a Hall of Fame candidate. But if Alan Trammell won the MVP award he deserved in 1987, people would see there really isn’t much to separate him and Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg.

Home Run Derby Part I

OK, this is a long entry. A LOOOOOONG entry. So, I'm splitting it up in two parts. I would ask one question: If anyone here is a Blogger expert and can tell me how to set it up so only the first few paragraphs appear on my front blog page, I would appreciate that.

I am fascinated by those improbable records and streaks in sports. They are all over the place, of course. Northwestern, for instance, has never made the NCAA basketball tournament. I was so blown away by that, I wrote an entire column about it. My favorite fact: Twelve teams with “North” in the name have made the tournament and four teams with “Western” have made the tournament. But no Northwestern. Heck, Northwestern STATE has made the tournament.

Enough of that. I don’t want to jinx Northwestern. My favorite college football team for the longest time was South Carolina because the Gamecocks would consistently draw 75-80,000 fans to their games – and those are some crazy fans down there – even though they had NEVER WON A BOWL GAME. In recent years, the Gamecocks have won a couple of Outback Bowls and are now pretty much like every other mid-level major college football program. It’s not the same. I’m sure I’ll feel the same regret when Northwestern gets into the tournament.

One of my favorite improbable records: The Kansas City Royals’ record for home runs is still 36. This is still unbelievable to me. It’s like the steroid era never came to Kansas City. The record was set in 1985 by Steve Balboni. And the truth is no Royals player has come particularly close to breaking it. Gary Gaetti hit 35 homers in 1995 – so had that been a full season, he probably would have broken the record. Of course, then the Royals record would be like 38 and held by Gary Gaetti, which isn’t all that different. As it was, Gaetti didn’t hit his 35th homer until the last day of the season.

As a public service, we will offer the home run records for all 30 teams, and maybe a little something to go with it. Here are the first 15 teams.

Disneyland Angels: 47, Troy Glaus (2000)

For a long time the Angels’ record was Reggie Jackson’s 39 in 1982. That’s one of the great “screw you” years in baseball history – remember the bitterness when he signed with the Angels? I think many people assumed Reggie was done. He was 35 already. He had been pretty lousy during the strike year of 1981 – he hit .237 and finished out of the Top 10 in homers for the first time in 10 years. He signed with California, hit those 39 homers and the Angels won the division. He had proved his point. The next year, Mr. October hit .194.

Anyway, Glaus crushed 47 homers in 2000 (led the league) and 41 homers in 2001 – he really is a masher, but he’s the worst home run derby player I’ve ever seen.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 57, Luis Gonzalez (2001)

So where does this rank among the all-time fluke years in baseball history? Gonzo’s second highest home run total is 31. I took a couple of minutes to look up some of the more famous fluke home run years – I haven’t found a bigger gap yet. I'm sure there are some.

Gonzo
Highest: 57 (2001)
Second: 31 (2000)
Gap: 26

Brady Anderson
Highest: 50 (1996)
Second Highest: 24 (1999)
Gap: 26

Davey Johnson
Highest: 43 (1973)
Second Highest: 18 (1971)
Gap: 25

Barry Bonds
Highest: 73 (2001)
Second Highest: 49 (2000)
Gap: 24

By the way, the official quote you are supposed to use when you have an unnaturally high number of home runs is: “I was really seeing the ball well that year.”

Atlanta Braves, 51, Andruw Jones (2005)

No offense to Jones, who is a terrific player, but it’s still odd to see that Braves homer list and see Jones in front, followed by Eddie Matthews, Hank Aaron, Eddie Matthews and Hank Aaron.

Baltimore Orioles, 50, Brady Anderson (1996)

Ugh. Can we petition the league to give the record back to Frank Robinson, who hit 49 homers in his Triple Crown year of 1966? Jim Gentile is third with 41 homers in 1961 – that was the year he hit grand slam home runs in consecutive at-bats. Could you even imagine how happy his fantasy owners would have been?

Boston Red Sox: 54, David Ortiz (2006)

Jimmie Foxx hit 50 in 1938, and that was the Boston record for 67 years.

One of my favorite Big Papi stories involves Grady Little (of course) who in 2003 apparently wanted to keep some utility middle infielder instead Ortiz.

This to me is not only a classic Grady story – it’s a classic manager’s story. Something happens to these guys when they become managers; it’s like, suddenly, utility infielders, pinch runners and mop-up relievers become the most important people in their lives. They always call these guys “invaluable” because they do the “little things.” Managers love the little things.

To be fair: I think this is because managers are the least powerful leaders in sports – they can’t design plays or call timeouts or make inspirational halftime speeches. All they can do, really, is change pitchers and put in a good defensive shortstop at the end of the game who might make a dazzling play. Think about the frustration level. I would bet when you do put in a defensive shortstop at the end of the game, and he makes some dazzling play to win the game, you feel like a milliion bucks. I'll bet it feels better than two grand slams.

Chicago Cubs, 66, Sammy Sosa (1998)

Even now, after everything, the numbers still look like a misprint – Sosa hit 66 homers in 1998, 63 in 1999, 50 in 2000, and 64 in 2001. What can you say?

Chicago White Sox, 49, Albert Belle (1998)

Albert Bell. Well, that’s kind of a shocker, isn’t it? Each of the White Sox Top 12 home run seasons has come since 1994 – before that, the record of 37 was shared by Carlton Fisk and Dick Allen.

I was once in a cab in Shreveport – don’t ask – and the driver was friends with Albert Belle. He knew him well enough, I recall, that he called him “Joey.” He said that Joey was terribly misunderstood (of course) and that everyone in high school loved him (he was an excellent student and had some role in student government) and everybody just assumed he would become President of the United States. I’m not sure how that would have gone, but I suspect we would have handled Iraq differently.

Belle could have won three MVP awards, and he was certainly robbed in 1995. He’s also the subject of one of my favorite newspaper lines, offered by my friend Tom Keegan, when he worked at the New York Post. The line: “Albert Belle glared exclusively at the Post.”

Cincinnati Reds, 52, George Foster, 1977.

Finally, we have a leader from before the homer era. This was the first 50 home run season of my life, and I remember at the time thinking that George Foster had to be some sort of superhuman. Years later, I saw Foster when he was with the Mets, and I could not believe how, well, average he looked.

Actually, what I remember most is that before the game there were a bunch of autograph-seeking kids yelling, “George! George!” And finally George turned to one of them, pointed and yelled, “Stan! Stan!” And then he walked away.

Cleveland Indians: 52, Jim Thome (2002)

For four years, Belle held the record for two teams – he hit 50 homers for the Tribe in 1995. … The record for my childhood years as an Indians fan was shared by Andre Thornton, who hit 33 in 1978 (I was 11), and Cory Snyder, who hit 33 in 1987 (not really childhood, but I still acted like a kid).

I loved Thornton, a spiritual man who overcame one of the saddest things I’ve ever heard. The year he came to Cleveland, he was driving a van with his wife and daughter, when he skidded off the road. His wife and daughter were killed. Thornton had a deep faith, and he was able to put his life back together. The next year, he hit those 33 home runs. I understand he's become very successful in business and travels around inspiring people -- doesn't surprise me at all.

I remember going to a mall once as a kid, and Thornton was there, and he handed me a pamphlet telling his story. He patted me on the head too, I think. He is, by all accounts, a remarkable man. I slept with that pamphlet under my pillow for weeks.

As for Cory Snyder, there was a time when I had 123 of his rookie cards.

Colorado Rockies, 49, Todd Helton (2001) and Larry Walker (1997)

Does anyone even look at Rockies offensive statistics seriously anymore? It’s like that great Jerry Seinfeld line about how handicapped parking spots are the mirages of the parking lot. You see a spot up front … right next to the front door. Can it be? How is this possible? What a lucky break. And then you see that it’s a handicapped spot, and it’s like “Ohhhhhh, it's gone.” It’s like that spot never existed.

Same with Colorado offensive numbers. You see a season, oh my gosh, Larry Walker hit .366 with 49 homers. A .720 slugging percentage! What a season! Unbelievable! That’s like some Babe Ruth or Jimmie Foxx season, that’s incredible – oh wait, never mind. He did it in Colorado.

Detroit Tigers, 58, Hank Greenberg (1938)

One thing that interests me – because I’m easily amused – is the relationship between doubles and home runs. It seems to me that, generally speaking, when someone has an especially big home run year, he will have a lousy doubles year. I guess the theory is that every player only hits so many long fly balls in any one year. Some go out. Some hit the wall for a double. Some are caught at the warning track. When any one of those types goes up, the others go down.

I bring this up for Greenberg because in ’38 he banged those 58 homers but he only hit 23 doubles – by far the lowest full-season total of his career. The year before he had hit 40 home runs, but he had 49 doubles. The next year, his homers dropped to 33, but his doubles bounced back up to 42. In fact, look at this chart.

Hank Greenberg (doubles plus homers)
1934: 89 (63 doubles, 26 homers)
1935: 82 (46 doubles, 36 homers)
1936: Injured
1937: 89 (49 doubles, 40 homers)
1938: 81 (23 doubles, 58 homers)
1939: 75 (42 doubles, 33 homers)
1940: 91 (50 doubles, 41 homers)

You can see that as homers go up, doubles go down, and vice versa. I’m sure someone has done an in-depth study on this relationship. I did notice that Sosa hit 20 and 24 doubles the years he hit 66 and 63 homers. Then, he dropped to 50 homers, but his doubles jumped to 34.

Florida Marlins, 42, Gary Sheffield (1996)

I just got Sheffield’s book “Inside Power” in the mail, and I intend to read it because I’ve always kind of liked Sheffield. But I will say this: I opened the book up to the middle somewhere and the first sentence I read was, “I’ve always like negotiating contracts.”

Houston Astros, 47, Jeff Bagwell (2000).

That was the first year the Astros played in Enron-Minute-Maid-Whatever-They-Call-It Park, and what a joy that must have been for those hitters after all those years in the ridiculously spacious Astrodome. You want to talk about taking the donut off the bat – wow.

You know, from 1965 to 1999, the Astrodome rated as a bad hitters park every single year, except one. In 1973, it rated exactly neutral for hitters – a 100. Four Astros hit 20-plus home runs that year, including Cesar Cedeno, whose 1973 season is a wonder to behold. He hit .320 with 25 homers and 56 stolen bases. But, it should be said that it wasn’t because of the Astrodome – he hit .346 with 16 homers on the road.

Anyway, in 2000, the Astros jumped into one of the BEST hitting ballparks in baseball, and hitters were like kids on spring break. Bagwell hit 47 homers, Richard Hidalgo hit 44 (up from 15 the year before), Moises Alou hit 30, heck, Mitch Meluskey hit 14 (the rest of his career, he hit 1). Unfortunately for the Astros, the other team gets to hit too, and led by Jose Lima’s 6-17, 6.65 ERA season, the Astros had the highest ERA in the league and lost 90 games.

Kansas City Royals: 36, Steve Balboni (1985)

It just doesn't look right, does it? The Royals have nine different guys in the Top 10 home run spots in team history. The only repeat player in the Top 10? Danny Tartabull. He hit 34 homers in 1987 and 31 homers in 1991. The line on Tartabull was that he was among the best in baseball history at padding his home run stats with big (and relatively meaningless) Septembers. You decide.

Danny Tartabull’s Royal Septembers
1987: .383 average, 11 of 34 homers.
1988: .302 average, 6 of 26 homers
1989: .197 average, 3 of 18 homers
1990: .300 average, 1 of 15 homers
1991: .289 average, 6 of 31 homers

I think it’s a bad rap. Really, he only padded his numbers in ’87 – and that was the year EVERYBODY padded their home run numbers, including Dale Sevum.

Los Angeles Dodgers, 49, Shawn Green (2001)

Duke Snider has five of the Dodgers’ Top 10 home run seasons – but he never hit as many homers as Adrian Beltre

For some reason, I find this odd: Shawn Green has only been to two All-Star Games. I guess I find it odd because he was a very good player – four 35+ homer seasons, a 35-steal season, a Gold Glove, all that – but even more I thought he was a very popular player. You know, I really don’t have anything more to add to this.

Quiz vs. Sutter, Take 2

One of the problems with being an opinionated researcher is that sometimes you will come across something that contradicts the point you’re trying to prove. But, hey, more than anything, you’ve got to be honest. I’ve put all the reasons why I believe Dan Quisenberry is better than Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter – he allowed fewer runs in a higher scoring league, he pitched better in big games, and I believe he had a higher peak.

That said, there is one area where Sutter was better – dealing with inherited runners. I delved into this, using the new stat I promised yesterday. The results are not exactly what I would have liked, but I think they’re honest. Also, I think we have a whole new reason to appreciate one Mother of a pitcher named Goose.

One of the things I have found frustrating when comparing Dan Quisenberry and Bruce Sutter is dealing with the whole inherited-runners question. Obviously, inherited runners are not too important when talking about closers these days. They generally do their one inning and split. Last year, K-Rod led everyone with 47 saves – he only dealt with 20 inherited runners all year (He allowed eight of them to score, if you care).

But in the Quiz-Sutter days, closers came into emergency situations – remember when they were called “Firemen” on their baseball cards? They were putting out fires, all right. In 1979, for instance, Quiz had a four week span where he came in with the bases loaded five times. It was like that back then. So as I tried to compare Quiz and Sutter, a big piece was missing: How do you measure their performances with inherited runners?

Of course, the easy way to do this is just to see how many runners each inherited and how many scored – this seems to be the common way to measure such things. In this, Sutter looks better. By my count, he allowed just 137 of 445 (30.8 percent), which is outstanding. Quiz, on the other hand, allowed 201 of 523 (38.4 percent).

But just looking at the gross “inherited runners scored” tell much of a story. Where were those runners inherited? How many outs were there? If a reliever strands a runner on first with two outs, well, that counts exactly the same as if he came in with a runner on third and nobody out. And, of course, it isn’t the same at all.

So I took my first stab at creating a new statistic. Now, I suspect that someone else has already come up with the perfect statistic for inherited runs – probably those brilliant folks at Baseball Prospectus – but I wasn’t savvy enough to find it. So I probably “invented” a poorer version of some statistic that already existed … I'm Elisha Gray sending in my patent too late on the telephone. All I ask is that you to cut me a break. I failed accounting.

What I did was this: I took a run matrix – you know, one of those charts that shows you how many runs are expected to score in each situation. There are actually dozens out there -- I tried to pick a matrix that represented the years Quiz and Sutter pitched. I figure the numbers in the matrix itself don’t matter too much, as long as I use the same matrix for both.

With that matrix I came up with how many runs were expected to score every time Quiz and Sutter entered a game. Then, I plugged in how many runs actually scored and figured out how many runs Quiz and Sutter "saved" (I only counted inherited runners – I figured that their ERAs already handled the runs they gave up on their own dime).

So, for example, let’s say that Sutter came into a game with the bases loaded and nobody out. According to my run matrix, in that situation, 2.16 runs are expected to score. If Sutter managed to hold the team scoreless, by my count, he saved the team 2.16 runs. If one runner scored, he saved his team 1.16 runs. If all three runners scored, he cost the team .84 runs. See?

Let’s do an easy one – Mariano Rivera’s 2006 season. Rivera came into the game 11 times last season with runners on base. He had one dreadful outing – bases loaded, two outs, he allowed all three runs to score. By my count, he cost his team 2.25 runs on that day. But he also came in with a runner on first five times, and only once allowed him to score -- which is good. Overall, the system says he saved the Yankees 2.06 runs last year – which isn’t great, but isn’t bad either considering he’s rarely used with runners on base. Those are two saved runs that are not accounted for in his ERA.

So, what does the system say about Sutter and Quiz?

Well, the system shows pretty clearly that Sutter was more effective saving his team – and his teammates – runs.

Inherited Runs Saved (career)
Sutter: 89.5
Quiz: 58.9

Sutter was much more consistent over his career when it came to inherited runners. Quiz had by far the best season saving runs – in fact, his 1980 season could be one of the great relief pitching seasons ever.

Quiz/Sutter’s Top 5 Inherited Runs Saved (seasons)
1. Quiz, 1980, 24.5
2. Sutter, 1979, 14.7
3. Quiz, 1985, 13.1
4. Sutter, 1984, 13.0
5. Sutter, 1978, 12.2

Sutter, as you will see here, was pretty consistent when it came to saving runs, at least until he got to Atlanta in 1985.

Sutter’s IRS year-by-year
1976: 11.6
1977: 9.4
1978: 12.2
1979: 14.7
1980: 7.8
1981: 3.9
1982: 12.0
1983: 4.3
1984: 13.0
1985: -0.7
1986: 0.2
1988: 1.0

Quiz, on the other hand, only had those two great seasons against inherited runners. He had a few good seasons, and he had one awful season. You can see pretty clearly that after 1985, he really wasn’t very good with runners on base (he did have a bit of a renaissance in 1989).

Quiz’s IRS year-by-year
1979: 0.0
1980: 24.5
1981: 7.7
1982: 5.5
1983: 5.8
1984: 5.1
1985: 13.1
1986: 0.4
1987: -8.0
1988: -1.2
1989: 6.3
1990: -0.2

Now, what are the reasons for the difference between Sutter and Quiz? Well, it seems likely that Sutter’s ability to get the strikeout and prevent hits was helpful in stranding runners – let’s give him full credit. But there is something else: Quiz was put in a lot more difficult situations. In Quiz's career, he was inserted with the bases loaded 39 times – Sutter only 17. Quiz came in with runners on first and second 85 times – Sutter 73. In his career, Quiz faced 43 more runners in scoring position, which is actually quite a lot more.

Also late in their careers – when both were showing their age – Quiz was still being asked to put out fires, while Sutter (for the most part) was coming in to start innings. Through their first seven years, they were comparable (Sutter was still better, but not much). After that, Sutter was still pretty good, Quiz was below average.

All of this is not to downplay the findings – the conclusion here is that Quiz was good at keeping inherited runners from scoring, especially in his prime. Sutter was clearly better. I don’t think this makes up the gap – I still think Quiz was a better pitcher overall. But it’s close. And anyway, the point of all this is that Bruce Sutter was elected into the Hall of Fame when nobody even considered Quiz a Hall of Famer – and that’s not right.

Before we move on to something that you folks might care about, there is one more point to be made. This system shows something more significant – Goose Gossage was better than either Quiz or Sutter. He was, in fact, A LOT better than either one of them. Look for yourself.

Inherited Runs Saved
1. Goose: 144.0
2. Sutter: 89.5
3. Quiz: 58.9

Oh man, Goose was incredible with runners on base. According to this system, Gossage saved 58.8 inherited runs just from 1975-78 – and that’s just three seasons because he was a full-time starter in 1976.

Goose Gossage’s IRS year-by-year
1972: 9.1
1973: 3.8
1974: 8.7
1975: 23.8
1976: Starter
1977: 15.0
1978: 20.0
1979: 5.0
1980: 13.0
1981: 7.0
1982: 8.3
1983: 5.1
1984: 3.9
1985: 2.9
1986: 1.2
1987: 0.2
1988: 0.7
1989: 3.0
1991: 4.3
1992: 3.14 (Pi!)
1993: 0.9
1994: 5.0

In his career, Gossage stranded more base runners than either Quiz or Sutter actually had to deal with. Now consider that Gossage’s basic numbers are superior to Sutter’s (50+ more wins, 10 more saves, 600+ more strikes, etc). He had a better peak – Sutter was at his best from 1976-84. Over those nine years, he went 58-60 with 260 saves and a 2.54 ERA. Gossage from 1975-84 (this way we can skip his failed year as a starter) had nine relief pitching years where he went 71-49 with 227 saves and a 2.08 ERA. And Gossage was fabulous in 1985 too.

Then you add the Goose’s amazing performance with inherited runners. I guess it would be worth running this stat on every reliever in baseball history just to see where Goose stands historically but … there’s no way I’m going to do that. Maybe someone can show me how to write a program to do it. And then, maybe somebody has already done it. In any case, if there's one thing I've learned doing all this it is this -- it's time to put Goose into the Hall of Fame.

Quiz vs. Sutter, Take 1

One of the great things about having a blog is that it allows you to write way too much about topics that interest nobody else but you. So for the next two days, I’m going to offer WAY too much on my personal quest to answer this question: Who was the better pitcher, Dan Quisenberry or Bruce Sutter? Today, we break down a few numbers – much of this is stuff I have included here and there in my column. Tomorrow, though, I introduce a semi-new relief pitcher statistic that will undoubtedly embarrass every single math teacher I ever had.

I also want to welcome all of you who linked here from The Kansas City Star Royals page. While you’re here, why don’t you buy a book?

Before we delve into my first ever statistical study – a mathematically unsound examination of Quiz vs. Sutter (with a little Goose thrown in) – we need to offer a little background. I admired Dan Quisenberry. I only got to know him a little bit toward the end of his life, but there are certain people you feel an instant connection with. Quiz was one of those people. Everyone felt that way about him. I went to see him at a poetry reading once, we had a great time talking. He discovered that he had a brain tumor just a few weeks later. We talked a couple of times after that, once about writing, once about relationships, and shortly after he was inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame, he was gone. He was just 45 years old.

I offer this background first because I need to be blunt: I entered into this Quiz vs. Sutter project with a very specific goal in mind – to prove that Dan Quisenberry was every bit as good as Bruce Sutter. Better, even. Now, I know full well this is absolutely the wrong way to go into a research project, but as football coaches say, “It is what it is.” We all need our inspirations.

Last year, as you know, Bruce Sutter was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame after being on the ballot 13 years. Quiz, meanwhile, received just 18 votes his one year on the ballot back in 1996. That seems wrong to me. I'm not saying that Quiz belongs in the Hall of Fame (I didn't vote for Sutter). But it's time for people to realize that Quiz was, in fact, a great pitcher.

Quiz vs. Sutter

The eerie similarities: It would be hard to find two relievers whose careers overlap much more than Quiz and Sutter. They were born less than a month apart in 1953. Sutter began his Major League career three years earlier, in 1976, while Quiz didn’t make it up until 1979. Sutter retired in 1988, Quiz in 1990.

Their appearance numbers are startlingly similar. Quiz appeared in 674 games; Sutter in 661. Quiz finished 553 games, Sutter 512. They pitched almost exactly the same number of innings – Quiz threw one more, 1043.3 to 1042.3.

Their successes are startlingly similar too. Sutter won a Cy Young Award and finished in the Top 5 five times. Quiz did not win a Cy Young Award, but he finished second in the voting twice, and also finished in the Top 5 five times. Quiz won five “Rolaids Relief Awards,” Sutter won four. They both won one World Championship. They both set league records with 45 saves (though Quiz did it first). Also, Quiz had a secretary named Lincoln, while Sutter ran from a warehouse to a theater.

The vast differences: Their overall results may have been similar, but everyone knows they were very different kind of pitchers. Sutter, relying on that pioneering split-fingered fastball, was a power pitcher. He struck out almost 500 more batters than Quiz:

Strikeouts
Sutter: 861
Quiz: 379

Sutter also allowed almost 200 fewer hits:

Hits allowed
Sutter: 879
Quiz: 1064

Sutter was also a closer for roughly three years longer than Quiz, so he has quite a few more saves and victories.

Wins and Saves
Sutter: 68 wins, 300 saves
Quiz: 56 wins, 244 saves.

OK, Quiz -- whipping the ball submarine style -- had his advantages too. Despite giving up more hits, he actually faced fewer hitters than Sutter because he walked about half the number of batters:

Walks
Quiz: 162
Sutter: 309

And by throwing that devastating sinker, he coaxed almost 50 more double plays. All in all, this actually allowed him to be more effective.

ERA
Quiz: 2.76
Sutter: 2.83

Unearned runs allowed
Quiz: 36
Sutter: 42

And just for fun:

Wild pitches
Sutter: 37
Quiz: 4

Inside the numbers: The truth is, the more I have broken down the numbers over the last couple of years, the more I have found that there’s very little to separate Quiz and Sutter. Yes, Sutter had 56 more saves, and this is not inconsequential. But it's not nearly as consquential as some seem to believe. Sutter picked up that gap in his later years as a mostly ineffective closer with Atlanta. Sutter finished just 75 percent of his save opportunities. Quiz was at 80 percent.

Blown Saves
Sutter: 101
Quisenberry: 60.

And as far as the 12 extra victories go, well, Sutter also lost 25 more games than Quiz which more than makes up the difference.

Winning percentage
Quiz: 56-46, .549
Sutter: 68-71, .489

So where do you go from here? I broke down the numbers some more. Both of these guys come from a time when relievers went more than one inning. Sutter had more multiple-inning saves than Quiz while Quiz had the advantage in really long saves:

Saves earned by pitching two innings or more
Sutter 130
Quiz: 121

Saves earned by pitching three innings or more
Quiz: 37
Sutter: 15

Quiz seemed to pitch better in context. He had a better ERA than Sutter -- but he also pitched in the higher scoring league. So his ERA+ (ERA measured against league average, adjusted for ballpark factors) is A LOT better than Sutter’s. It is in fact, tied for the third-best in baseball history:

ERA+
Quiz: 146
Sutter: 136

This means that as far as preventing earned runs goes, Quiz was 46 percent better than other pitchers in his league, while Sutter was 36 percent better than his league. Another way to look at this is by using Lee Sinin's great statistic "Runs Saved Against Average."

Runs Saved Against Average
Quiz: 148
Sutter: 123

This is a pretty powerful advantage for Quiz … but I will say this: I got a thoughtful email from someone who suggested that the difference in the leagues was largely neutralized because Sutter was a late-inning reliever, so he rarely got to face other pitchers. I actually think this makes some sense. I posed the question to Bill James, who sent along a typically fascinating reply that included thoughts on Jim Rice, Elston Howard, Bill Dickey, Yankee Stadium and the designated hitter. In the end, though, he did not really know whether or not there should be a special adjustment made for National League closers. He did not think so.

There’s one other advantage for Quiz: He pitched better in pennant races. I looked at both careers after August 15 in those years when their teams were within five games of first place. It’s pretty arbitrary, I know, but the numbers are striking because Sutter, generally, tended to wear down late in seasons while Quiz did not.

In Pennant Races
Quiz: 9 wins, 7 losses, 42 saves, 177 innings, 2.54 ERA.
Sutter: 4 wins, 15 losses, 34 saves, 102 innings, 3.98 ERA.

All of this seems to prove the point that, at the very least, Quiz was the equal of Sutter and should have received significantly more Hall of Fame support (or Sutter should have received less).

So, why did Sutter get so much more Hall of Fame support? I suspect there are five reasons:

1. Sutter was a more “dominant pitcher” – strikeouts and such.
2. Sutter had more saves.
3. Sutter got a lot of credit for popularizing the split-fingered fastball.
4. Sutter won a Cy Young Award.
5. Sutter played for the Cubs and Cardinals, two nationally beloved teams.

And I would answer each of the five this way:

1. Quiz was the more efficient pitcher.
2. Quiz had the better save percentage – and Sutter picked up most of his extra saves when he was no long effective.
3. Quiz also was a pioneer with the submarine pitch – it’s not his fault others couldn’t do it as well.
4. Quiz should have won the Cy Young Award in 1983 for sure (La Marr Hoyt? Please) and possibly in’82 or ’85 as well.
5. Quiz was consistently better in big games than Sutter.

OK, glad to get that off my chest. There is one other part of Sutter vs. Quiz that I have calculated – and I have to admit that this semi-new statistic does favor Sutter. It also shows that it is ridiculous that Goose Gossage is not in the Hall of Fame. It also shows that I do not have a particularly actively nightlife. We’ll unveil that study tomorrow.