The AL West with Rob Neyer

There are people in this world who speak and write so authoritatively, that I find myself always agreeing with them even when I know they are wrong. Rob Neyer is one of those people. Rob could write a column about how earthworms are going to take over the world, throw out a few stats, and by the end I would be thinking: Wow, I better start sucking up to some earthworms.

You know Rob from his excellent ESPN columns and from his fine books on baseball blunders, baseball lineups, baseball dynasties, and baseball pitchers (with our co-hero Bill James). In addition, he and Rany Jazayerli do a terrific periodic chat about the state of the Kansas City Royals, which never fails to both enlighten and depress the hell out of me. Rob and his wife, Kristien, live in Portland, which he believes would be a great Major League baseball market, and according to his Wikipedia entry, he went to high school with one of the guys who plays a caveman on the Geico commericals. I'm told that Rob also finished Robert Caro's "The Power Broker" so that means the three living people who did that (not including Robert Caro, who I believe stalled out at Page 1,298) have been a part of Baseball Preview with the Stars.

Rob also recently set an ESPN record for longest online chat, an achievement I rate slightly below Bob Beamon's 1968 long jump, but above Barry Bonds' home run chase.


First, 1-4, predict the AL West.

Honestly, I haven't gotten far enough yet in my preseason analysis to do this with any sort of confidence. But my gut tells me the Rangers are going to surprise us (in a good way) and the A's are going to surprise us (in a bad way), so I'll order them:
1. Rangers
2. Angels
3. Athletics
4. Mariners.

How about their only being four teams in this division. That's not really fair, is it?

Well, no. But it's been a long time since the major leagues were fair. Not since 1902, I think.

Who do you think is the best everyday player in the division?

It's not a good division for everyday players, but I think the answer probably is Michael Young, pushed this season by his teammate, Mark Teixeira. Which is a pretty good argument for the Rangers doing well this season. If, of course, they can find two or three good starting pitchers.

True or false: Joe Morgan really does believe that Billy Beane wrote Moneyball.

I haven't asked him, and one would think somebody he trusts has set him straight at some point in the last three years. But I've not yet heard him mention the name Michael Lewis. So your guess is as good as mine.

Have you gotten used to saying Los Angeles Angels yet? I'm still calling them the California Angels, and that's been outdates for more than 10 years. They've had more names than Prince.

I actually call them the Orange County Angels whenever my editors let me get away with it. It's more accurate than Los Angeles, obviously, and if the owner doesn't care about literal truth then why should I? It's weird, though, I really haven't called them the California Angels in more serious moments, though for years when the Raiders were in Los Angeles I continued to say Oakland, and to this day I'll sometimes refer to the Los Angeles Rams. I think it's easy for me to remember these new Angels because they actually began life as the Los Angeles Angels, and I've spent a fair amount of time researching those early years for one of my books.

Who is the best starting pitcher in the division?

Rich Harden, in the unlikely event that he's healthy for more than six straight weeks. But my money's on Felix Hernandez, who has a pretty good chance to establish himself this season as the second-best pitcher in the American League (and thus the world).

True or false: Barry Zito will have a better year than any pitcher in the West.

Based purely on ERA? Sure, thanks to his new league and his new ballpark his numbers might look impressive at the end of the season. But there are at least six guys in the division I'd take before Zito.

Who is the best closer in the division?

Every team has a good one. The Rangers have two good ones. But you have to take Francisco Rodriguez, who's one of the two or three best in the game.

You began your career working with Bill James and you wrote a touching essay about him in the book, "How Bill James Changed Our View on the Game of Baseball" (wonderful book, long title). What are you doing now if you didn't get the job with Bill?

If somebody let me back into college, I probably would have become an intolerant high-school history teacher. If not, I would have tried to make my living convincing publishers that some book titles just don't work real well.

Who wins the argument: Bill James or Bill Clinton?

You know that old advice to lawyers? "If you can't argue the facts, argue the law. If you can't argue the law, argue the facts. If you can't argue either, pound on the table." James would start out with the facts and maybe the law and he'd be doing well, but Clinton would pound the hell out of that table.

How good is that Anaheim rotation?

It's good. I don't see any obvious Cy Young candidates, and there's some legitimate concern about Jered Weaver. But nobody in the division is close, top to bottom.

Well, more importantly, how will Anaheim score any runs? And if you were a pitcher, why would you throw a single strike all year to Vladimir Guerrero (not that throwng strikes matters to Vlady)?

It's a great baseball conundrum that anybody ever throws a strike to hitters like Guerrero and Robinson Cano and Alfonso Soriano. But clearly it's not nearly as easy to pitch to those guys as their walk columns might suggest. As for Guerrero's teammates, you're right: it's hard to see them scoring often, as only Guerrero and young Howie Kendrick seem like good bets to be better than average.

True or false: Texas had to fire Buck Showalter.

I'm a big Showalter fan, but he was there for four seasons and they never finished higher than third, and at some point you have to let the results dictate these things. I think Showalter will be in the game for a long time, and he'll be associated with a lot of good organizations; right now he's working for your Indians. But maybe he's just not managerial timber at this point in his life.

Is this the year your Kansas Jayhawks win it all in the NCAA Tournament or, even more significantly, get out of the first round?

This is Bill Self's best team, and his first No. 1 seed. As you know, though many strange things have happened in the NCAA tournament, a No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 16, and KU won't be the first. I certainly won't predict a championship, because you simply can't win without some luck in the close games (nearly every champion plays at least two close games). I will say this: the Jayhawks are one of the four best teams in the country. And if they all come back next year...

Not to rehash this, but let's rehash. You and I both think the American League MVP voting last year was messed up. If you could choose one reason, why did Justin Morneau win?

Simple: he piled up a lot of RBIs for a playoff team, and he also played well when the Twins played well. The voters prefer things to be simple like that.

Ron Washington now manages Texas. Let me ask you this: Could the old Royals Baseball Academy (Ron Washington's alma-mater) work today?

Sure. They're all over the place in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, right? I mean, the popular image of the Royals Academy is that they were taking raw athletes and turning them into baseball players, right? But Frank White played baseball before he went to the Academy, and I'm guessing Washington did, too. Anyway, if you really wanted to do it, you'd have to do it like they do in China, and take the kids when they're actually kids, seven or eight years old. Then you'd have yourself some ballplayers, boy.

What is your favorite baseball blunder?

As a Royals fan, my favorite baseball blunder is the Mets trading Amos Otis to the Royals for Joe Foy.

Seattle. Jeff Weaver. Explain.

Bavasi's. Days. Numbered.

What is it like to do a six-hour ESPN chat?

It's funny. The previous ESPN.com record was five hours and three minutes. Typically my chats go for an hour, maybe a bit longer. And this time after the first hour, I was a little fatigued, both mind- and fingers-wise. But I got a second wind, and the second wind lasted for about five hours. I could have gone way past six hours and thirty-seven minutes -- the final count -- but wanted to leave room for challengers to the title. And it was a lot of fun, seeing all those questions and answers pile up over the course of the morning and afternoon.

True or false: Players on the West coast are underrated.

True, though it's certainly hard to argue that Ichiro's underrated, or Barry Zito. But so much these days is driven by highlights, and so many of the West players' highlights come after bedtime in the East, that a lot of these guys just aren't seen. That's changing, obviously, with the ready availability of highlights via MLB's website.

Can't spell Spring Training without R-P-I

One of the odd, but fun parts of being a sports columnist is that your daily life is entirely scheduled by other people. I sometimes am asked, “Do you get to choose your own assignments?” And my answer is, “Why, yes. Yes, I do.” But, of course, that’s a lie. Well, first of all, I would never use the phrase, “Why, yes.” I’m not a character from “Alice in Wonderland.”

Second, while it’s true that I get to choose what columns I write, my schedule is determined by the sports fates. Sunday, the NCAA Tournament committee decided to leave the Kansas State basketball team at home. The unintended consequence of this was to free me from Buffalo or Spokane or wherever the heck the Kansas State basketball team would have been consigned and send me instead to Surprise for Royals spring training. Or maybe it was an intended consequence, I don’t know. Maybe those committee members in the room, instead of discussing teams RPIs and strength of schedules and whatever else, actually said: “Hey, let's snub Kansas State. That way that Kansas City columnist will go to spring training early and be forced to find something new to say about Odalis Perez and Angel Berroa. That could be amusing.”

Of course, I don’t really believe that’s what they said. I believe what they said was: “How can we arrange this tournament so it helps Duke?”

Anyway, we will have another “Baseball Preview with the Stars” up this afternoon -- big star coming up -- and at least two more over the next two days. Then the blog will go live from Surprise, Arizona.

In the meantime, if you are in the Kansas City area – or if you have all sorts of frequent flier miles you want to get rid of – we will have a "Soul of Baseball" book signing and presentation Tuesday evening at The Kansas City Store in Prairie Village (6951 Tomahawk).

The AL Central with Michael Rosenberg

If you are lucky in this life, you will meet a friend who is basically, well, you ... oh, wait a minute, I've already used that intro for Mike Vaccaro. Well, anyway, I'm also fond of our next Baseball Preview Star, Michael Rosenberg, a brilliant columnist for The Detroit Free Press and author of an upcoming book on the fascinating relationship between Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler (that book won't be coming out for more than a year, so there's really no place to buy it yet. That's why if you click on that "upcoming book" link, you will conveniently be transferred to the Amazon page of my book, "The Soul of Baseball." Buy several for family and friends!)

Michael grew up in New York and has worked for several very large and impressive papers, but it hasn't gone to his head, or at least that's what his agent told me. Michael's one of my favorite sportswriters in America because it's obvious -- both in his writing and his disposition -- how much he loves sports. You would be surprised by how many sportswriters don't seem to like sports. OK, maybe you wouldn't be surprised.

The sad thing is that for a long time, Michael and I were even in baseball terms. We both wrote about horrendous teams. We both dealt with affable and utterly inept managers who were once excellent players. We both had done hard Lima Time. Then, last year the Tigers went to the World Series, placing Michael up there with newspaper legends like Dave Anderson and Jim Murray and Red Smith. Men who, yes, won Pulitzer Prizes (Michael hasn't won one of those yet). But more importantly, men who wrote about successful baseball teams. Meanwhile, I kept writing about Angel Berroa. Life's not always fair.

I asked most of these questions. But Michael slipped in a few self-questions. He's like that.

First, 1-5, rank the teams in the AL Central.

1. Detroit. A year later, I still can't believe I am writing that. But the Tigers are the only contender that got indisputably better on paper in the off-season.
2. Chicago. I think they made a mistake trading Garcia, but still plenty of talent there.
3. Cleveland. Should have been better last year, plenty of talent. They don't mean to offend Native Americans, blah, blah, blah. Show me something.
4. Minnesota. I do not like the rotation after Santana. At all.
5. Kansas City. Because there is no sixth place.

Who is the best player in the division?

The most valuable player to any team in the division is Johan Santana. I know he doesn't play every day, but so what? Put it this way: if you could start a team for one season with one player from the Central, wouldn't you pick him? Or put it another way: if you could remove one player from any team and automatically eliminate that team, it would have to be Santana, right?

Who do you think is the best everyday player in the division?

Ah, we go from "best player" to "best everyday player." Almost like you knew I would go with Santana in the first answer and wouldn't let me off that easily. Fine then. You play your sneaky little games.
The division's best hitter is Travis Hafner, but since he spends most of a game sitting on his butt, I can't pick him on principle. (I would consider him for MVP, but not for the more prestigious honor of "best everyday player in the division according to The Soul of Baseball blog.") The AL MVP was Justin Morneau. But if I had to choose one guy, I would go with Morneau's teammate, Joe Mauer. Mauer had a .429 OBP last year, had 53 extra base hits, runs the bases well and -- I can't emphasize this enough -- he is a catcher. And he is not yet 24! If Morneau gets hurt, the Twins could find a serviceable first baseman with some pop, but how could they replace Mauer?

True or false: The Tigers pitchers will spend six hours every day of spring training practicing their fielding.

Can I let you in on a little secret? The fielding errors were NOT the reason the Tigers lost the World Series. Even with the errors, which were ill-timed from a baseball perspective -- though well-timed from a comedic perspective -- the Cardinals still only scored 22 runs in five games. The Tigers' problem was that they couldn't hit. The team hit .199 in the series with a .581 OPS, and if I may use an antiquated baseball stat known as "runs," they only scored 11 in five games.

Who do you think is the second-best starting pitcher in the division?

Hmmm. Last year it was Francisco Liriano, but I don't like his chances this year, since he is waiting for his arm to be re-attached to his body. I'm going with Jeremy Bonderman. This is mostly a projection -- he needs to find a really good, consistent off-speed pitch, but he says he is close. If Bonderman can consistently throw a changeup for strikes, he will win the Cy Young award someday. Of course, I have been projecting greatness for him since he was a fetus, and it hasn't quite happened yet. But what if I give up on him and THEN he wins the Cy Young? Wouldn't that just destroy my soul? This, by the way, is the same reason some people pick the Kansas Jayhawks to win the national title every year -- one year they actually will, and nobody wants to get off the bandwagon one exit early. I was one of those people before I upped my medication. Anyway, Bonderman is my choice, but only because Runelvys Hernandez is no longer in the division.

True or false: While writing a column during the World Series last year, FOX Sports noticed a smudge on your typing hand?

True. But that is only because I was changing the oil on Michael Waltrip's car.

Who is the best closer in the division?

Joe Nathan. I have nothing else to add. He just is.

Who is the best manager in the division?

Buddy Bell. Nobody can shave five losses off a 110-loss team like that guy. Oh, you mean seriously? You'd have to go with Jim Leyland, wouldn't you? I think he let his daughter bat third one day last year and she went 3 for 4. Ron Gardenhire would be a close second, followed by Ozzie Guillen. But if I had to pick one guy to choose an All-Star pitching staff, it would be Ozzie.

At what point last year, do you think everyone in Detroit decided: "Oh my God, this Tigers team really is good."

I suspect there was a moment, years ago, when Lyle Lovett said, "This is clearly Julia Roberts, and she is in bed with me, and highly naked, and does not seem in any rush to leave. 'Does this mean she kind of likes me?'" Last year was like that for Tigers fans.

You grew up in New York. So what's your baseball fan history?

Meet the Mets, Meet the Mets ... come to the ballpark and greet the Mets! Someday, whether you like it or not, I will remind you that: a.) Game 6 of the 1986 World Series was tied when Mookie Wilson hit that ground ball, so it's not like the Red Sox would have definitely won if Buckner makes the play, and b.) even if Buckner had caught the ball, Wilson very well might have beaten him to first anyway. Plus the only reason the Mets lost Games 1 and 2 is that they had to spend way too much time and energy beating the Houston Astros and their evil cheating pitching staff in the NLCS. So really, the Red Sox were lucky the Mets didn't win in five. That's been my story for 21 years, and I'm sticking to it.

We love Bruce Springsteen. But is he a real baseball fan? And how could he have used "Speedball" in "Glory Days?"

We have now reached the point in the Q and A where Joe realizes that I am inserting questions he actually asked other people, just so I can answer them. Hey, I love Springsteen too. I have always thought he knew "speedball" was not something real baseball fans say, but he wanted to avoid a cliche, and he wasn't all that worried about the blog discussions 23 years later. Unlike Bill Horton, Bruce Springsteen is not a cautious man.

Everybody seems down on Minnesota this year, in large part because nobody seems quite sure how they won the division last year. Are you among those who believe the Twins are going down and going down hard?

I think I know how they won the division last year: they had a few great players, the best pitcher in baseball and another guy who was actually better than the best pitcher in baseball for half the year. I have great respect for the Twins organization. Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire might be the best GM-manager tandem in baseball, ahead of Billy Beane and his brother-in-law, or whoever is managing the A's these days. But without Liriano and Brad Radke for the entire season, I just don't see how they can contend. And if Santana slips even a little, then forget it.

You are writing a book on Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler. Are you going to be the first writer to courageously point out that Clemson's Charlie Bauman DESERVED to be punched by Woody?

Finally, a relevant question. You know, a lot of Woody's old players actually argue that Bauman was taunting Woody by waving the ball at him. Bauman has denied it. It's hard to tell on the tape -- Bauman was sort of waving the ball, but it is possible he had severe underarm itch and he was just trying to get rid of it. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue that the proper punishment for a player who taunts is a punch from the opposing coach, even though college football would be far more interesting if they passed that rule.
Anyway, since you have given me an opening to shill for my book, I will say that I hope it will help readers understand Woody and why he might have thrown that punch when they get to that section of the book. As we might say these days, Woody was not in a good place at that point in his life. And I don't just mean Jacksonville.

You can only have one: Justin Verlander or Jered Weaver?

I'll take Verlander. Both are great, and neither lacks confidence, but Weaver strikes me as the kind of guy who rubs his teammates the wrong way and always wants a new contract and could end up pitching for eight different teams. Then again, I could be wrong.

The White Sox now have Darren Erstad, Rob Mackowiak and Scott Podsednik. That's a lot of scrappiness. There's no question here, really. Just wanted to point out the scrappiness quotient of the White Sox.

Can you imagine if they had asked for Aaron Rowand in the Garcia deal? They would be running into the outfield wall during batting practice.


In addition to your brilliant sports column, you also write a humor column that, best I can tell, is about 219 words long. How hard is it to be funny in that little space (people often marvel at how short the Gettysburg Address was, but let's be blunt: It was not funny.)?

As I prove with every column, it is virtually impossible. You know, the strange thing about the Gettysburg Address is that it is short, but still wordy. Apparently even Lincoln had lousy editors. My understanding is that Lincoln had more written, but he had to go use the can, which was pretty far away (thanks to the famous 1863 port-a-potty factory strike), so he cut the speech short. I don't know why Doris Kearns Goodwin has never written about this. Come on, Doris. Turn off the Red Sox game and give the people what they want.

Do you have anything you want to say about the Cleveland Indians?

Only that when a team desperately needs a closer, and forks over $5 million for a free agent, and that guy retires before spring training, that can't be good.

Don't you think it's pretty nifty that the Indians are going to be playing in the Civil Rights game in Memphis?

Is Chief Illiniwek singing the national anthem? I hear he's available.

True or false: Gary Sheffield.

Today: true. Tomorrow: false. The day after: "What's your problem, man? Why don't you like a dude who speaks the truth?" Sheffield is nutty, but he makes the Tigers better.

You have the cutest little daughter north of my house. What is you want her to know about baseball?

I would like her to understand implicitly that the second baseman does not actually stand on second base. I cannot handle 14 straight months of Audrey asking me why the second baseman is not standing on second base. I don't even know how to explain it. It's like if somebody looks at your laptop for the first time and asks, "How come you go to 'Start' to shut down?" Some questions have no answer.

OK, this is your chance to suck up to the Kansas City Royals fans who read this blog. Go ahead. Give them some reason to believe.

It is a historical fact that a single meteor has never wiped out Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and Minneapolis in one shot, which means we are due. Actually, I think there is hope for the Royals -- not this year, certainly, but down the road. A lot of owners make a total mess of their organizations for a few years before hiring somebody good and backing off. Maybe David Glass is one of those guys. Every other team in this division was trapped in "they will never win" mode at some point in the last 20 years, and every other team has won.

Mike Vaccaro and I have invented (or at least borrowed) the concept of the HAYAROW -- "Hollywood Actor/Actress You Are Allowed to Run Off With. Who would be yours? And who would be your wife, Erin's?

This is so embarrasing, but Erin has a thing for Adrien Brody. I don't get it. To me, his nose looks like it should have Alberto Tomba on it. But I guess that is her HAYAROW. As for me, there are so many possibilities here, but I'm going to step outside of the actor/actress box and go with Norah Jones. I know -- not somebody you find on the cover of Maxim, and not exactly the most cutting-edge artist on the planet. (My favorite band is Wilco, so I am not a total square.) But really: who else would you rather hear singing in the shower? Erin is aware of my Norah Jones crush. She is amused.

Curtis Granderson. How good a guy is he anyway?

In the words of Kenny Bania: The best, Jerry, the best!

The NL East: With Mike Vaccaro

If you are lucky in this life, you will meet a friend who is basically, well, you. That's how I feel about New York Post columnist Mike Vaccaro. We see the world the same way. We have basically the same thoughts about life, sports, movies, politics, television, books -- we are the only two people I know who finished Robert Caro's rather lengthy book about Robert Moses ("The Power Broker,") and wished there was more -- and journalism. Over the years, about the only thing we have strongly disagreed about is Billy Joel. Mike thinks Bill Joel is a fine singer/songwriter, and I think he's the Devil. No, that's an exaggeration. I just think he sucks.

ANYWAY, Mike is author of the wonderful Red Sox-Yankees book Emperors and Idiots and his new book on the sports year 1941 will be out in two months. It's terrific. I've already read it. Mike, of course, writes columns for the New York Post. He has spent much of his life loving the Beatles, the Mets, the Jets, Kennedy assassination theories, memorizing lines from both Godfather movies (you know, there were only two of those), studying Civil War history (and don't get him started on Ulysses Grant's tenure as President) and ranking Caesar's salads. Once again, I got to ask the questions, and Mike provided the answers.

First, 1-5, rank the teams in the NL East, adding a sentence or two to each if you like.

1. Mets—An AL lineup that can be sabotaged by an AARP rotation.
2. Phillies—Should be the team to beat but ... they’re the Phillies.
3. Braves—Transition time for the team of the '90s.
4. Marlins—Growing pains catch up with them.
5. Nats—First in war, first in peace, last in the National League.

Who do you think is the best everyday player in the division?

Jose Reyes. There isn’t a player in all of baseball that does as many things well, and watching him run the basepaths is the single-most exciting thing in the whole sport.

True or false: Ryan Howard will never hit as many home runs as he did this season.

False. I think he’ll hit 80 some season, especially in that ballpark in Philadelphia. The fact that he hits so many to straightaway and to left field tells you he ought to be slump-proof when it comes to home runs.

This isn’t an NL East question, but I asked Alex Belth, and you have a unique insight because you interviewed the Boss. We love Bruce Springsteen. But is he a real baseball fan? And how could he have used “Speedball” in “Glory Days?"

That’s always bothered me to no end. “Speedball” isn’t what Grover Cleveland Alexander used to strike out Tony Lazzeri, it’s what he drank AFTER he struck out Tony Lazzeri. That said, when I interviewed him nine years ago, he said that the two most often heard voices to come out of his transistor when he was a kid in Freehold, NJ, were Scott Muni (a famous New York DJ) and Phil Rizzuto; I assume this caused something of a bonanza back in ‘77, whenever Muni would introduce “Paradise By the Dashboard Light” on the radio.

Who do you think is the best starting pitcher in the division?

Dontrelle Willis, and it ain’t close. That said, if Tim Hudson could ever find a way to start pitching for the Braves the way he once did for the A’s, this question may have to be revisited.

True or false: Pedro is done.

False. Pedro’s never going to be PEDRO, the single-name sensation who made watching Red Sox games as much fun back in the day. But even before he got hurt last year, he had learned how to remain a winning pitcher with off-speed stuff and guile, making much the same transformation that Tom Seaver did back in the early ‘80s.

Who is the best closer in the division?

That’s an hysterical question, because I think if you ask any fan of any team in the division, they’ll all tell you about the horrifying angst they experience whenever one of their guys comes trotting in from the bullpen, specifically Tom Gordon and Billy Wagner. Chad Cordero has the youngest, livest arm, but he had his problems last year. I guess it tells you how scary things are when Bob Wickman is the guy who inspires the least amount of fear and loathing among his own troops.

Who is the best manager in the division?

Hard to argue against Bobby Cox. You don’t win 14 straight pennants in a row by winning the lottery. Willie Randolph should have won the Manager of the Year last year, but as long as Cox is interested, Willie runs second.

We agree on just about everything in life except Billy Joel. How could you?

As he once so masterfully put it, “Life is a series of hellos and goodbyes. I’m afraid it’s time for good-bye again.”

How long will Mets fans chant, “Swing the bat, Carlos?”

Until he hits the game-winning grand slam in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series. New York’s a tough room.

You can only have one: Jose Reyes or Derek Jeter?

Reyes. Not only is he 10 years younger, but he has better range at shortstop, a stronger arm, he’s faster, a better baserunner, and in a few years he’s going to have a 30-homer season. No one’s written more poetry about Jeter’s “intangibles” than me through the years, but Reyes is that good.

You have already done the brilliant Yankees-Red Sox book. When is the Marlins-Nationals book coming out?

I’m told either Updike or Halberstam has dibs on that subject, but I’m waiting in the wings if either of them pass.

Is it possible for Philadelphia to have more starting pitchers on their roster? You’ve got Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Jamie Moyer and Jon Lieber. Is this the best rotation in the National League or a whole bunch of guys who could do a Philly flop?

If they all pitch well, then you’re talking about some kind of rotation and some kind of season. But there are so many issues that abound:

A) As mentioned earlier, they ARE the Phillies.
B) Myers could wind up in some kind of trouble again, he seems to have that kind of make-up.
C) Hamels is a young kid who already had an arm scare last year, and young kids are always just one arm scare away from trouble.
D) They ARE the Phillies.
E) Would you trust Freddy Garcia with a game you absolutely, positively had to win?
F) Ditto Adam Easton.
G) They ARE the Phillies.
H) Is Jamie Moyer Digger Phelps’ son-in-law or his father-in-law? He looks old enough to make the question genuinely ambiguous.
I) For every Yankees fan who still screams in the middle of the night at how badly Kevin Brown screwed up Game 7 of the '04 ALCS with the Red Sox, it’s important o remember that Jon Lieber dug them a 4-0 hole in Game 6, first.
J) THEY ARE THE PHILLIES.

Best song made by any of the Beatles after the breakup.
Either “What is Life?” by Harrison or “Happy Xmas (War Is Over)” by Lennon.

Is Florida, with all those talented kids, likely to win another World Series in the next couple of years and then dismantle and lose a billion games again?

I know we said this the last time they broke up a title team, and they bit us all in the hide just a few years later. But you can’t expect to keep winning that way. And if they wind up trading Willis and/or Cabrera before their walk years, as I think they will, then no way.

In your marriage, who is your current, HAYAROW (Hollywood Actress You Are Allowed to Run Off With) And who is your wife, Leigh’s?

Mine is Rene Zellweger. She had me from ... well, you know. And Leigh’s is either Clive Owen or Edward Burns.

(Little known fact: Mike went to high school with Edward Burns)

Is this finally the year the Braves stink? And isn’t it amazing to think that if you are younger than, say, 20 or so, you have absolutely no recollection that the Braves used to be an all-time baseball joke? Remember when Ted Turner managed the team?

It’s like being born in 1929 or so and having no concept at 16 of any other president besides FDR. Nah, they won’t stink; they still have too much pitching and too much championship muscle-memory to stink. But next year, if they lose Andruw to free agency and deal Chipper ... it’s anyone’s guess.

True or false: Andruw Jones is the best defensive center fielder in the game.

True. That position was never supposed to look that easy.

True or false: More general managers should wear suspenders.

Actually, I think GMs should have to wear uniforms, too, just like the managers do.

Growing up a Mets fan, did you think Joe Torre had any idea what he was doing as a manager? And how well could you do that Willie Montanez behind-the-back thing he did when he caught the ball at first base?

I always knew it never mattered if we had John McGraw managing as long as we were trotting out Doug Flynn every day. And not only did I master the Montanez behind-the-back ... when I hit my home run off Glenn Decker, I circled the bases the way Montanez did, replete with walking the whole way from third base home. My pop nearly popped a blood vessel when he saw that.

Washington. Do you think they wanted baseball badly enough to deal with THIS team?

I have a bad feeling that even Shirley Povich wouldn’t have wanted to watch this team.

Best stadium in the division. We already know the worst. Seriously, with Shea at this point, wouldn’t it be better to just play in Central Park or on a street in Brooklyn or something?

Of the 30 best moments of my life, probably 10 of them happened at Shea Stadium, it’s where I saw my first game with my dad, where I saw him cry at Old-Timer’s games, where we bonded over baseball, where we sowed the timeless father-son generational seeds of baseball, and I never feel closer to him or his memory than when I’m sitting there ... AND I WANT TO PUSH THE BUTTON WHEN THEY FINALLY TAKE THAT DUMP OUT OF ITS (AND MY) MISERY. Although, in a division of pretty pedestrian parks, it probably only ranks third behind Philly (though the dimensions make it a hard park to love) and Atlanta (which is soulless and charm-free and has been ever since Michael Johnson’s great run there).

Best television theme song ever?

M*A*S*H. If for no other reason than the lyrics (which nobody knows) are positively gruesome. These, I swear to god, are the words to the chorus:

Suicide is painless.
It brings on many changes.
And I can take or leave it if I please.

I mean, what the @#$%%@ does that mean?

You are one of the few people who know the coveted second verse to “Meet the Mets.” What does this say about you?

It explains an awful lot including why I didn’t see my first naked woman until I was into my twenties.

Who wins a fight, Mr. Met or the Philly Fanatic?

Mr. Met. After all, the Fanatic IS a Philly.

Your fabulous book on the sports year 1941 -- called, interestingly enough, “1941”—comes out soon. What is the coolest thing you learned about Joe DiMaggio’s streak and Williams’ .400 run?

That after DiMaggio tied George Sisler’s record in the first game of a DH in DC, his bat was stolen. He wound up extending the streak, but he figured his bat was gone forever. Then, some low-level Newark mob guy named Peanuts started doing “research” on his behalf, and the guy who wound up with the stolen bat was found, and Peanuts “reasoned” with him to give it back ... probably the same way the movie producer was “reasoned” with when the horse head wound up in his bed.
As for Williams, it's the oldest and best-known part of his tale, but still the best: he could have sat out the final day, had his .3996 rounded up to .400 forever, but he said “Heck, no,” or words to that effect, went 6-for-8, and finished .406. Even in a simpler time, they would call that a “ballsy move.”

What is your favorite New York Post back-page headline?

When Clemens bailed on the Yankees for Houston: WHAT AN ASTRO

The AL East With Alex Belth

Our first installment of "Baseball Preview With The Stars" features writer, painter, blogger, movie mogul, music mixer and all-round great guy Alex Belth. (By the way, shouldn't it be "all-around great guy?" I would think so, but the copy editors at the paper insist it's "all-round." And as anyone who has read this blog knows, I NEED copy editors. They're much smarter than I am. By the way when you see an asterisk next to a word*, that means it was corrected by one of you. So thank you. OK, back to your regularly scheduled blog entry).

You will know Alex from Bronx Banter, his writing with SportsIllustrated.com and the good work he did with the movie Swimfan. Now for those of you who would even suggest that the only reason I'm making Alex my first Preview Star is because of the hard work he's doing pumping my book ("The Soul of Baseball") well, you know, whatever.

Alex is a twin, he's been doing the Bronx Banter blog since 2002, he worked with Ken Burns on the "Baseball" documentary, he's worked with the Coen Brothers, he wrote a wonderful book on Curt Flood, and he's such a good guy that I like him even though he's an unabashed Yankees fan.

I ask the questions. He offers the answers. It's easier this way.

First, 1-5, predict the AL East.

1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays
5. Orioles

Who do you think is the best everyday player in the division?

Alex Rodriguez. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez might be better hitters, but they can't run the bases like Rodriguez. And even though he had an awful year with the glove, Rodriguez is a better fielder than both of them. Carl Crawford, and Vernon Wells and Derek Jeter deserve an honorable mention, too.

True or False: Derek Jeter is a lousy defensive shortstop.

False. I don't think he is a Gold Glover, but I don't think he's garbage either. He's competent. It's interesting that he's improved his fielding during the past few seasons.

Is Bruce Springsteen a true Yankees fan? A true baseball fan? Man, I love Bruce, but how could he use the word "Speedball" in "Glory Days?"

I saw the Boss at the Stadium last year with what looked like his daughter and a friend of hers. He was mad low-key and very accommodating to the fans. Yeah, I think he's a genuine fan. Gregory Hines used to come to the games all the time. The celebrity Yankees fan I'd most like to watch a Yankee game with is Jack Nicholson. John Madden would be pretty good too, and so would Larry David. Speedball? Ah, memories of Steve Howe...

Who is the best starting pitcher in the division?

Doc Halladay.

Who is the best closer in the division?

I've got to go with my man, Mo, but you could make a case for B.J. Ryan.

You've done quite a bit of film work. You worked with Ken Burns. Does he always use words like the narrator in "Civil War" or "Baseball?" Or did he ever say, "Dammit, Alex, get your ass in gear already?"

No, but after working for Ken in New York for about a month he turned to me one day and said, "When are we going to get your ass up to Walpole?" That's the town up in New England where he and his crew lived and cut their movies. In person, Ken doesn't come across as the effete intellectual that he does on TV. He doesn't speak in that kind of prosaic manner. Actually, he's a charismatic guy, extremely bright and very confident. I took a ride with him from NYC to Walpole, and he was a pretty loose dude. We listened to the Stones. I tried to turn him on to some hip hop and while he didn't really take to it--the lack of melody really got in his way of appreciating rap records--but he was open enough to give it a shot.

Which is the cooler Coen brother?

The funny-looking one.

Are you happy the Yankees got Andy Pettitte back? Do you think they could rebuild that entire 1998 team again? What's Hideki Irabu doing these days?

Yeah, I am happy to see Pettitte back, which is funny because I wasn't sad to see him go three years ago. I always liked him -- his performance in Game Five of the 1996 World Serious is one that Yankees fans will be hard-pressed to forget -- but he was never a favorite. Oddly enough, his closeness with Clemens didn't endear me to him much, though it made me like Clemens more. Go figure.

I don't think teams like '98 can be built, really. So much has to go right in order for a team to enjoy the kind of stupid success that the Yanks did that year -- or that the Mariners did a few seasons later. Dag, Boo Boo Irabu. I haven't heard that name in a minute. But I really liked him. He was one of the few screwjobs on those clean-cut Yankee teams. He reminded me of a combination of Jackie Gleason and a bad Elvis impersonator. I remember he'd get so rattled if the umps weren't calling strikes early in the game. He'd get so upset that it was like he would purposely throw borderline pitches and dare them to keep calling balls. Perhaps his greatest moment in pinstripes, I think it was in '98, came in a game against the Blue Jays. Clemens had drilled Jeter I believe, and Irabu retaliated by plunking a Toronto player. When the batter didn't respond, Boo Boo charged the plate. It was early in the game. I remember relief pitcher Mike Stanton running out of the dugout and holding Irabu back, barely able to conceal a smile.

True or false: The Red Sox will rue the day they signed J.D. Drew.

False. He's the antithesis of a Dirt Dog, but I think he's a very good player.

The Reggie Bar -- good chocolate bar or not?

Oh, I remember it as being awful. But I don't really like many American chocolate bars. My mother is from Belgium, and so I was spoiled from a young age with good chocolate. I'm basically a chocolate snob. What was it that Catfish Hunter said about the Reggie bar? "I opened one up, and it told me how good it was." I did love the bright orange wrapping with the picture of Reggie in his classic swing.

What is your favorite Yankees-Red Sox moment? Least favorite?

God, there have been so many good Yankees moments against the Red Sox. One that stands out in my mind is a catch that Ken Griffey, Sr. made at Yankee Stadium in the mid-80s. It was the middle of the summer. He climbed the wall in left field and scooped a ball right out of the stands. Alex Rodriguez had a couple of awful moments against the Sox in 2004 but that was worse for him than it was for me. And as upsetting as the 2004 ALCS was, there wasn't one moment that stuck out in my mind as being the worst, though there were a couple of pivotal plays. Brice Florie getting hit by a line drive is a terrible memory, but I think Carl Everett breaking up Mike Mussina's bid for a perfecto with two outs in the ninth is my least favorite memory.

Just how many runs will that Baltimore pitching staff give up this year? Is it even any fun when the Yankees go into Camden to play what will undoubtedly be a 12-11 game?

A kabagillion. Fun isn't exactly the right word. No, those Yankee-Orioles games down in Camden are trying even for a Yankee fan. But ultimately, I root for the wins. If it's gotta be unsightly sometimes, so be it.

You have some very cool artwork on your website. Talk about art and writing.

Well, I had a facility for drawing and painting as a kid. I always thought I was going to grow up to be a fine artist. Writing was in my family -- my grandfather wrote for the Brooklyn Eagle and was later an editor for the Herald Trib before he was as a publicist at the ADL for years -- but I never thought I'd be a writer. My dad cared about me and my brother and sister becoming competent writers. He used to make us write little essays for him when we were kids. But writing was always very difficult for me. Drawing came naturally, so it was easier to work hard at it. As I mentioned, my mom is from Belgium and she had some artistic ability. Comic books -- Tintin, Asterix -- was also an avenue for me to communicate with my French relatives so pictures, whether they were drawings, photographs or movies, were always more important to me than words. I'm a far more visual person than a literary one.

I think I was fortunate to go from fine arts to writing instead of the other way around. For instance, I learned that when you are working on a painting, you may get to a point where you fall in love with a section of the picture. And you just adore it, but if you are honest with yourself you realize that it is taking away from the whole, from what you are trying to do. So you need to have the courage to paint over that section you love in order to serve the whole. Otherwise you are just being precious. You have to be willing to screw up the entire picture in order to learn something, you have to be disciplined. So I spoiled some decent pictures in the process. (The beauty part is that the next time out, you could make something incredibly beautiful with little to no effort.) With writing, you have to be disciplined too, of course. But if you cut a line, you don't have to destroy it. You can use it later for something else entirely. There were several good anecdotes or quotes that I cut out of my book on Curt Flood simply because they distracted from the narrative. But I used them when I was doing press for the book, and in subsequent articles I wrote about him.

Tampa Bay. What's the point?

Yeah, they are just facing a ridiculous uphill battle. But at least they have some young players who are exciting to watch. I like them more than the O's, that's for sure (Is there any bigger disgrace in baseball than what's happened to the once-proud Baltimore organization?). The Trop is just a terrible-looking Stadium on TV, which doesn't help matters. But Jake Luft of SI.com was telling me recently that he actually enjoys the park. Jake is from Florida and says being indoors during the middle of summer down there is the way to go, no matter how bad it looks on TV. Plus he says there is an Outback Steakhouse there so you can bring a bloomin' onion back to your seat. Who knew?

Carl Crawford is absolutely one of my favorite players, and I think one of the best in baseball. How much will the Yankees pay him?

Speaking of Jake, I was out with him, my Bronx Banter partner Cliff Corcoran and Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus a few weeks ago and Crawford's name was mentioned. I said that I thought it would be great if he really broke out this year and became a legitimate star. Jake looked at me like I was nuts and said, "He already is a star!" And looking at his numbers again, I'd say he's right. It would be great if keeps it up, even manages to improve on his '06 performance. How much would the Yanks pay him? Um, buckets of duckets, dude, buckets of duckets.

We all know George Steinbrenner is aging. What will his legacy be for you as a lifelong Yankees fan?

It's funny how even the biggest ogres can become virtual saints as the age, or after they die. I've found that I've gotten soft on George over the past few years, which may have as much to do with the fact that I've never known any other Yankee owner during my lifetime (I was two when he purchased the team) and I'm simply overcome with nostalgia. I'll remember him as a bully, a jerk, a crook, and sometimes a clown. I'll definitely remember him as a guy from Cleveland and NOT New York. During the late eighties, I thought that the Yanks would never be competitive again until he stopped owning them. But really, his legacy will be that he made the Yankees matter again. In Richard Lally's oral history of the Yankees, "Bombers," pitcher Steve Hamilton talks about the losing years in the late 1960s when the team was owned by CBS, about how opposing fans would feel sorry for the Yankees. That was a sign on how far they had fallen, a team who people had loved to hate for so long. Well, no matter what you think of George, he made people love and hate the Bombers again. And he made them winners too, in spite of his tirades and immaturity. He's got to get some credit for that. He put his money back into his team. They've won the World Series six times since he's owned them. No other team during that time span can say that.

Matsuzaka. You buying the hype?
Sure, why not?

You have teamed up with a friend to create a very cool music mix. Has there ever been a good baseball song?

Baseball tunes. That's a very short mix tape, man. Baseball songs are even worse than baseball movies. (There are some baseball movies that I find watchable like "Eight Men Out," and "Long Gone," but only two that I would say that I genuinely love--"The Bad News Bears," and "Bull Durham.") Ultramagnetic Mcs had a tribute to the Negro Leagues years ago called "Saga of Dandy, the Devil and Day." This rapper from the Bay Area named Rasco had a pretty decent posse cut called "Major League" in the late nineties. On the remix, he rapped, "Sport the pinstripes, break throug like Jackie Rob' /You Mark Port-u-gal, I'm swingin like Ty Cobb." That's a pretty funny diss. But rappers never took to baseball like they did to hoops.

"Centerfield" cracks me up in a real cornball kind of way, but I don't know that I'd ever go out of my way to listen to it. I think "Joltin' Joe DiMaggio" by Les Brown is probably the best baseball song that I can think of. As far as 1940s novelty records go, that's a good one. I'd put it on a mix. I like it better than the Willie Mays and Jackie Robinson records.

That thing they do in the Yankee Stadium bleachers, where they call out each player's name until acknowledged: Incredibly cool or obnoxious beyond words?

I don't know that I'd call it cool, but I do like it. Some Yankee fans think it's tired, but I get a kick out of it. It's not fresh, but it's so rare that you can find that kind of connection between the fans and the players these days, especially in a big market (and one without a mascot). Plus, it's a very New York kind of thing, the fans insisting on being noticed and all.

Which version of New York, New York is better: Frank's or Liza's?

Frankie, baby. Liza's sung the original, which is something that people sometimes forget. But then again, people tend to forget the movie "New York, New York," period. It was a failure, but it had some interesting moments. Scorsese was still in his prime, so even his flops had moments.

Is this Joe Torre's last year?

Could very well be, but I wouldn't bet on it. Hey, I think that Torre's run as Yankee manager under Steinbrenner is as unlikely as Joe D's 56-game hitting streak. So I'll believe it's over when it's over.