Dotel v. Beltre: Dance Remix

Editor's note: Monday night, on a tight deadline for The Kansas City Star, I wrote a long column about one at-bat between Octavio Dotel and Adrian Beltre. It was, naturally, too long. I do that. The copy editor did an amazing job of cutting the column on a very tight deadline without taking away the essence of the column -- that really is an artform. We have great copy editors at the Star. Still, I thought the full version should run somewhere, so what better place than my blog?

This is about one at-bat, 11th inning, Royals vs. Seattle. Octavio Dotel is pitching. Adrian Beltre is hitting. The score is tied, of course, and there are Seattle runners at first and second base, a single breaks the game open, and the crowd is punchy and tired and anxious all at the same time. It has been a long game. Each team has had chances to win. One more time, the game is on the line.

Dotel and Beltre have met before. Lots of times. They have faced each other 18 times over nine seasons – 17 official at-bats – and in that time Beltre has managed only three hits, a .176 average. Beltre did hit a home run against Dotel once, on an 0-1 fastball, though that was a long time ago, way back in 2000. They were different men then. Dotel was a 26-year-old late-inning reliever for Houston trying to harness his fastball and control his emotions. Beltre was just 21, gifted beyond words, and trying to prove to everybody that he belonged in the Major Leagues.

Dotel starts off with a slider. He’s not stupid. He knows Beltre is a dead fastball hitter. In 2004, Beltre mashed 48 homers for Los Angeles. He hasn’t been nearly that intimidating since then – in fact he’s only hit 54 homers in the two and a half years after that – but everybody in baseball knows that Beltre can still turn around a fastball. The slider sweeps outside, and Beltre does not swing. Ball one.

“He’s looking for a fastball so how does he not swing at that slider?” Dotel would ask. “I’ll tell you how: It’s because this is Major League Baseball. He knows what he wants to hit. He’s a great hitter.”

Throwing a ball on the first pitch entirely changes the dynamic of an at-bat. When Dotel starts the batter off with a strike, they hit only .180 against him. When he throws a ball, it’s a different story. Dotel breathes out. He knows what’s coming next. It’s time to throw the fastball. Beltre knows it too.

“I’ve been around in the big leagues a long time,” Dotel would say. “Everybody knows what I pitch. There’s no mysteries here. Octavio Dotel throws fastballs.”

He throws the best fastball he’s got – a 94-mph fastball that he gets up a little higher in the strike zone than he would like. Beltre’s bat flashes. He still has the quick bat. He crushes the ball down the third-base line – it’s the hardest ball hit all day. But it shoots foul.

The count is 1-1.

There’s a lot for both men to think about now. Dotel just saw his fastball absolutely smashed down the line. That can’t do much for confidence. But he’s been around long enough to know that just because a guy got a good swing against his fastball doesn’t mean anything – a foul ball is just another strike. Beltre meanwhile, knows he may have just missed his pitch. One thing every hitter understands: When you’re facing a good pitcher like Dotel, you are only likely to get that one mistake pitch. You better do something with it. Beltre sent a screaming line drive foul. Not good enough.

Dotel throws the slider again on the next pitch – he doesn’t really want to challenge Beltre’s bat speed again just yet. Beltre watches it bend outside. The count is 2-1.

Here’s a dangerous pitch – Beltre is hitting .327 in his career on 2-1 pitches. He knows how to pick out the pitch he likes and drive it. Dotel tries to throw his fastball with a little bit extra, and he overthrows it just a touch, and it is outside. Dotel kicks the dirt. The count is 3-1. He’s in trouble now.

A few fans weakly chant, “Let’s go Royals.” They are tired too. The American flag blows hard toward left field – if Beltre can get the ball up into that wind it could go a long way. And hitters love 3-1 pitches. It’s the one moment when they have control – this year batters throughout Major League Baseball are hitting .348 on a 3-1 count, and they have a .648 on-base percentage.

“In this situation, you gotta have a good feeling,” Dotel would say. “You have to believe in what you got. I have a fastball. That’s what I have. And I have to believe that when I throw that fastball, I’m going to get the guy out, no matter how good he is. I have to believe that.”

Dotel rears back and throws his fastball, 94 mph. Beltre swings out of his shoes – it’s one of the most violent swings in baseball. It’s the swing you imagine Mighty Casey used in the poem. And Beltre connects. But he hits the ball straight ball into the crowd. Foul ball. Beltre bangs himself in the helmet. He missed his pitch again. Dotel steps back to the rubber and gets ready to do it again.

And now they’re on even terms. The count is full. The potential winning run is on second base. The crowd – those who have waited out 10-plus innings and more than three hours of baseball – start clapping rhythmically. There is no strategy now, no slick moves, nobody outsmarting anyone else. Dotel throws fastballs. Beltre hits them.

Dotel rears back and throws another fastball, this one with a little extra something, this one at 95 mph, and Beltre swings hard again – so hard his neck seems to snap back at contact – and again the ball spins back into the crowd.

The tension begins again. This is when baseball is at its best. The crowd claps rhythmically again. One more time, Dotel rears back, another fastball, 94 mph, only this time it seems to sweep a little bit to the left, and Beltre swings with a little less confidence. He fouls the ball down into the ground.

Now, who has the advantage? The line from baseball people is that the longer an at-bat goes on, the more likely it is that the hitter will get a hit. But something seems to shift after that last pitch. A little doubt may have crept into Beltre’s swing. Did Dotel see it? Sure he did. He’s a knockout artist. He has fanned 748 batters in just 625 innings – one of the best strikeout ratios in baseball history.

And he seems to have a little more confidence now. It’s all attitude in the moment, all confidence. “Who believes in themselves more?” Dotel says.

Dotel looks in for the sign, but there no reason to look. He has thrown four straight fastballs, and everyone knows he will throw another one. He winds up, he throws, a 94-mph fastball which bends hard to the left, and this time Beltre is overmatched. He waves at the ball. Strike three.

Beltre hits himself with the bat. Dotel waits for the next batter Jose Lopes. He strikes out Lopez too, only this time with a slider. “I have other pitches,” he says.

In the bottom half of the 11th, Kansas City’s Emil Brown hits a long sacrifice fly to centerfield that easily scores David DeJesus and give the Royals a 3-2 victory. It’s a good win. Afterward, of course, everyone gathers around Brown, and then they gather around DeJesus. Those are the heroes. But there are always lots of heroes in a baseball game.

“You know,” Dotel will say after the game, “it’s hard to hit that little ball with that little stick.”

Yaz '67

Yesterday, I wrote a little something about George Brett and how he carried the 1985 Royals to the World Series. I suggested (I suppose) that Brett may have done as much for his team in 1985 as anyone ("It's hard to fathom any one player carrying a team more than Brett did in 1985" -- yes, I'm now quoting myself, it's pathetic).

Then, two things happened. I got a six-word email from someone: “Did you just forget Carl Yastrzemski?” And in the snail-mail I got Baseball Prospectus’ excellent upcoming book called “It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over” The book is about pennant races (I believe it's coming out in August), and it’s just the good stuff you expect from Prospectus. The first chapter revolves around the amazing 1967 pennant race. It reminded me just how good Yaz was down the stretch that year – it’s unprecedented, really.

So, for fun, let’s go game-by-game down the stretch with Yaz in '67:

September 18: Red Sox 6, Detroit 5 (10 innings).

Yaz: Went 3 for 4 with a double, homer and 2 RBIs.

Key blow: With the Red Sox down 5-4 in the ninth inning, one out, Yaz banged a game-tying home run. Boston won it in the 10th when Dalton Jones homered. That victory pushed the Red Sox into a first-place tie with Minnesota. According to the Prospectus' IAOTIO, just before Yaz stepped to the plate in the ninth, Boston Globe columnist (and apparent loudmouth according to reputation) Ray Fitzgerald barked: "Right now is when an MVP should hit a home run."

September 19: Red Sox 4, Detroit 2

Yaz: Went 0 for 3 with a walk and a run scored.

Key blow: This was Yaz’s only hitless game during the streak, but even here he played a huge role. The Red Sox were down 2-1 going into the ninth inning, when Jerry Adair led off with a single against Mickey Lolich. Yaz never did much against Lolich – he hit .226 against Lolich in his career – but he worked a walk. George Scott then singled in Adair, Yaz went to third on a sacrifice bunt by Reggie Smith. Yaz scored the game winning run on a wild pitch. Boston remained in a tie with Minnesota for first (the Twins battered the Kansas City Athletics).

September 20: Red Sox 5, Cleveland 4

Yaz: Went 4 for 5 with a homer, two runs scored and an RBI.

Key blow: There were a couple of key blows, actually. With the Red Sox down 2-0 in the sixth, Yaz banged a home run off of Sudden Sam McDowell – the only homer he would ever hit off of Sudden Sam. In fact, he would only hit .173 in 73 at bats against McDowell in his career, hey, we’re talking here about one of the most unhittable left-handed pitchers in baseball history. But Yaz got three of his 12 career Sudden Sam hits on this day. The Red Sox, keyed by his home run, managed to tie the game entering the ninth.

The in the ninth, facing George Culver**, Yaz singled (thanks to a brilliant reader -- I had originally matched up Yaz with his '67 teammate Sparky Lyle. Culver is correct). He went to second on a wild pitch. He scored the game winning run on Reggie Smith’s single. Third straight game Yaz scored the game-tying or winning run.

Minnesota beat Kansas City again, so the two teams were still tied.

September 21: Red Sox 6, Cleveland 5

Yaz: Went 1 for 4 with a walk, a double and a run scored.

Key blow: There wasn’t really a key blow in this one. Yaz did drive in the Red Sox first run, but it was when he hit a fly ball that Cleveland’s Richie Scheinblum lost in the lights or something and dropped. That scored Mike Andrews – no RBI for Yaz on the error. In the sixth, Yaz walked and scored as part of a three-run Boston rally that gave the Sox a 4-0 lead. In the seventh, Boston tacked on two more – though Yastrzemski’s double did not play a role. And then they held on as Cleveland rallied to make the game close.

Minnesota beat Kansas City again – I’m sure Red Sox fans by now were ready for that never ending Athletics-Twins series to end.

September 22 (Game 1): Baltimore 10, Red Sox 0

Yaz: Went 1 for 3 with a walk.

Key blow: None. Baltimore scored two in the first – Curt Blefary’s triple being the big hit – and never looked back in the first game of a Friday doubleheader. Could you imagine a Friday doubleheader being played during a pennant race these days?

September 22 (Game 2): Red Sox 10, Baltimore 3

Yaz: Went 1 for 4 with an RBI, an intentional walk and 2 runs scored.

Key blow: Baltimore actually led this game 2-0 after three innings. But in the fourth, Yaz led off with a single to center field. He went to second on a walk to George Scott and scored on Reggie Smith’s single. And then everything fell apart for Baltimore. Luis Aparicio booted Ken Harrelson’s ground ball. One batter later, Aparicio booted Jose Santiago’s ground ball. Boston scored five and never looked back.

Minnesota smashed the Yankees 8-2 behind Jim Kaat, and the Twins had a 1/2 game lead on the Red Sox.

September 23: Baltimore 7, Red Sox 5

Yaz: Went 2 for 3 with a homer, a walk, an RBI, 2 runs scored and a stolen base.

Key blow: Well, the guy did all he could. Baltimore took an early 4-0 lead. In the fourth, Yaz singled and eventually scored on a groundout to make it 4-1. In the fifth, he came up with Boston down 4-3 and a man on base, and he crushed a long home run to give Boston a 5-4 lead. In the seventh, with Boston still leading, he singled and stole second with one out, but they could not drive him in.

And Boston pitching could not hold on. Brooks Robinson hit a two-run homer in the eighth that proved decisive. Yaz never came up again.

Minnesota finally lost, though. And the Red Sox still trailed by a 1/2 game.

September 24: Red Sox 11, Baltimore 7

Yaz; Went 1 for 4 with an RBI and a run scored.

Key blow: This one was over early – more or less. The Red Sox scored at least one run in each of the first five innings. Yaz was in the middle of two of those rallies, and he was pulled out of the game in the seventh with Boston up 7-0. Then things got a little bit screwy, Baltimore scored three runs to make a game of it. Boston scored four in the ninth, thanks in large part to a George Scott homer. But Baltimore scored four in the bottom of the ninth – thanks to five straight hits – and then Dan Osinski was finally able to slam the door shut.

The Twins beat the Yankees 9-4 to maintain their 1/2 game lead. But the Twins lost to the Angels the next day while the Red Sox were off, so it was tied up again at the top.

September 26: Cleveland 6, Red Sox 3

Yaz: Went 2 for 3 with a double, a homer, an intentional walk, a run scored and 3 RBIs.

Key blow: None. It's amzaing how, even when Boston lost, Yaz did just about all anyone could ask. With a man on second, Yaz was intentionally walked in the first inning – this is how much respect he was garnering by now – and then Luis Tiant struck out the next two batters.

In the fifth, with Cleveland ahead 3-0, Yaz doubled but George Scott could not drive him in. In the seventh, with Cleveland up 6-0, the Red Sox had two runners on and Yaz hit a three-run homer to make it a game again. But Tiant shut things down right there and Yaz did not get any more at-bats.

Minnesota beat California behind Jim Kaat and now had a full one game lead with three games to play.

September 27: Cleveland 6, Red Sox 0

Yaz: Went 1 for 3 with a walk.

Key blow: Sonny Siebert and two Indians relievers held Boston to just five hits, and the Indians scored four runs in the second to put the game on ice – Vic Davalillo’s two-run single was the decisive hit.

But the key blow on this day actually belonged to California’s Roger Repoz, whose RBI single proved the game-winner in California’s 5-1 victory over Minnesota. Had the Twins won that game they would have been up two on Boston with two games to play and would have clichéd at least a tie. Instead, the Red Sox and Twins would end up playing a two-game series in Boston for everything. And Yaz would be ready.

September 30: Red Sox 6, Minnesota 4

Yaz: Went 3 for 4 with a homer, run scored, 4 RBIs.

Key blow: I am making it sound like this was a two-team race when, as you almost certainly know, it was actually a four-team race. Detroit split a doubleheader on this day and was only a half game back. The White Sox came into this weekend with the pennant within their reach, but they got knocked out on this day by losing 4-0 to the Senators. It was the second straight day the White Sox were shut out by Washington.

Still the focus was in Boston. The Twins took a 1-0 lead in the first and had the bases loaded with just one out against Jose Santiago. Rod Carew lined out to second though, and Ted Uhlaender grounded out to end the threat.

Minnesota's Jim Kaat, who was pitching well, came out in the third becuase he heard a pop in his elbow. Jim Perry relieved him. The Twins held the lead until the fifth. Then Boston's Jerry Adair singled in a run to tie it. Yaz’s infield single gave Boston the lead. In the seventh, with Boston clinging to a 3-2 lead, Yaz decided to put the game away once and for all with a monstrous three-run homer against Jim Merritt. That did it, all right.

The Twins and Red Sox were tied with one game to play. Detroit had another doubleheader on Sunday and could still fit into the picture somewhere with a sweep.

October 1: Red Sox 5, Minnesota 3

Yaz: Went 4 for 4 with a double, a run scored and two RBIs.

Key blow: In one of the most famous games in Boston history (and Minnesota history, I guess), the Twins had a 2-0 lead going into the bottom of the sixth – Tony Oliva drove in one run, Harmon Killebrew the other. Yaz, once again, was doing everything. He singled in the first. He doubled to lead off the fourth (but was eventually doubled off on a George Scott line drive).

Then came the sixth inning against Dean Chance. Boston pitcher Jim Lonborg led off with a bunt single. I’m trying to imagine a pitcher in a big game today leading off with a bunt single. Jerry Adair singled. Dalton Jones singled to load the bases. And up came Yaz. It is probably the only time in baseball history when the BEST anyone rooting for the Twins that day could hope for was that Yaz would walk. If there was ever a time to intentionally walk someone with the bases loaded, this was it.

Instead Yaz singled, two runs scored to tie things up. Ken Harrelson’s fielder’s choice scored Jones to make it 3-2. Chance was pulled for Al Worthington.

And then it all fell apart for Minnesota. Worthington threw a wild pitch and Yaz went to third. Worthington threw ANOTHER wild pitch and Yaz scored to make it 4-2. After an out and a walk, Reggie Smith reached on Harmon Killebrew’s error, another run scored, and it was 5-2.

That was it. The Twins had a rally going in the eighth – they scored one on Bob Allison’s single – but then Allison tried to stretch that single into a double and got thrown out to end the threat.

Meanwhile in Detroit, the Tigers lost the first game of the doubleheader against the Angels – the fatal blow being a two-run homer by Don Mincher – and that ended their hopes. Boston had won. The Impossible Dream season.

In all, Yaz had hit .523 in those crucial 12 games. He hit five home runs, scored 14 runs, drove in 16, had an OPS of 1.559, and he played the crucial role in probably six of the Red Sox eight victories down the stretch.

He also won the Triple Crown that year, and it was this last stretch that did it. He came into the stretch hitting .314 – he ended up hitting .326 (15 points better than Frank Robinson). He tied Harmon Killebrew for the home run lead (44) – so those five he hit were critical. And he won the RBI title by eight over Killebrew (121-113). That year, Yaz also led the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits, total bases, times on base, extra base hits and adjusted OPS (an amazing 195).

Where does this year rank in baseball history? I think it probably has a special place. There were others who put up more impressive numbers – Ruth, Bonds, Williams, Mantle in ’56 and ’57, Musial in ’48, Hornsby, and so on and so on – but considering the place (Boston), the time (nobody was hitting in 1967), the situation (the Red Sox had not even been in a real pennant race in about 15 years), the fans hunger and the ridiculous and amazing tension of the final weeks, I think you could make a real argument that Yaz’s ’67 is a contender for the best season by any player ever.

All Stars Then and Now: AL Edition

I have this theory that the best age to be a baseball fan is 10 years old. That was my favorite baseball year. At 10, you’re already old enough to read the stories and study the box scores but not so old that you think the manager is a complete idiot. At 10, you aren’t the least bit offended by how much money the players make – in fact, you think it’s really cool that they’re millionaires. At 10, you believe the players care just as much as you do. At 10, even the players hitting .185 and the pitchers with 6.00 ERAs seem special. At 10, you can fall asleep with the radio on under your pillow.

At 10, the players are larger than life – larger than they will ever seem again – but, at the same time, they’re closer than they ever will be again. At 10 you feel sure that you will be one of them someday.

Yes, 10 is a good age. I was 10 in 1977, and so those players, those teams, that year will always be special to me. The fact that was 30 years ago both (1) depresses me to no end and yet, in a strange way, also (2) really depresses me. I had a wonderful talk with Buddy Bell about the 1977 Cleveland Indians, my favorite team ever, and he told me some things about that team and that year that would make the beginnings of an amazing book, if anyone else cared about the 1977 Cleveland Indians. I think it’s fair to say that wasn’t necessarily the best-run organization on earth. Maybe when I’m rich and famous I’ll write some coming of age book about that team sort of the way John Feinstein wrote that book about the 1978 Duke team that nobody else cared about (everybody bought that book anyway because he’s John Feinstein – and it was really pretty good).

In the meantime, though, let’s go back in time and compare this year’s All-Star starters with the 1977 All-Star team. We’ll start in the American League. I will admit, right up front, to being slightly biased toward those players from when I was 10, but we’ll try to be fair.

First base: David Ortiz vs. Rod Carew.
My pick: Carew
Thoughts: Well, it’s not a fair comparison because Ortiz is not a first baseman. He has played seven games at first base all year, and I have a scout friend who saw him a couple of those games and gave me this one word report on Ortiz’s defense: “Brutal.” Meanwhile, I’m not sure that any team would put Carew and his lack of home run power at first base these days. But he could at least play the position. He got to more balls than any first baseman of his day.

In any case, Carew in 1977 was about as locked in as any player in the last 50 years. He would end up hitting .388 with 38 doubles, 16 triples, 14 homes, 100 RBIs, 128 runs and a 178 OPS+ -- which is higher than Ortiz has ever had. He was hitting .394 at the break, and at the time I remember people being almost CERTAIN that he would hit .400. Carew really was an almost mystical figure in 1977, with his 1,001 batting stances and his magical ability to hit the ball wherever he wanted to hit it.

Papi has a little mysticism as well because of his knack for hitting in the clutch. He’s hitting .360 this year with runners in scoring position.

Second base: Placido Polanco vs. Willie Randolph
My pick: Wow, close. Let’s say Randolph.
Thoughts: I’ve already said that I wanted Polanco to get a little recognition, and I’m thrilled that he gets his All Star start. That said, it’s also true that he’s not the best second baseman in the league. Brian Roberts is a better player, and he’s a better player than Randolph was too.

But these are the picks – Polanco vs. Randolph – and while it’s very close, I think Randolph was a little better over his career. The thing that stands out about Randolph is that he found a way to get on base – his .373 on-base percentage is about 50 points higher than the average second baseman of his time. He didn’t strike out, he stole bases at a high percentage, he was a sharp player. The only thing is there were very mixed reviews about his fielding – I always thought he was pretty good, his numbers look really good (he did make errors, though), and Bill James ranked him a B+ fielder.

Shorstop: Derek Jeter vs. Rick Burleson
My pick: Uh, Jeter.
Thoughts: Obviously shortstop was more of a defensive position in 1977 – and Burleson was a good defensive shortstop, significantly better than Jeter. Burleson even hit a bit in ’77 – he ended up batting .293 with 36 doubles. But that wasn’t much offense compared to Jeter, even if you adjust for the time. This isn’t close.

One thing is that in 1977, defensive positions were more defined.

First baseman: Could be high-average, slick fielding guy. Or could be fat power hitter with soft hands.
Second baseman: Little flea who could run and field.
Shortstop: Little flea who could run and field.
Third baseman: Rocket arm guy who could hit 20 homers.
Left field: Strikeout guy with 30-homer power.
Center field: Burner who could steal 50 bases and make all the plays.
Right field: Rocket arm guy who could hit 20 homers.
Catcher: A low average hitter with a little pop who could “call a good game.”

That was it. The thing is: Everybody who played the positions had these qualities. There were no real freaks in 1977 – no 30-homer shortstops, no big RBI second basemen, no .340-hitting catchers. And so it was easy to tell your superstars because they could also do a little more – any second baseman or shortstop who could hit even a little was a star. If your center fielder had a little power in addition to those other characteristics, he was a superstar. If your catcher could hit with power, he was a superstar. And so on.

Now things are so much more confusing. You have catchers who hit, but they’re terrible catchers. You have shortstops who are among the best hitters in baseball but they can’t field a lick. You’ve got centerfielders who can’t run, power hitting second basemen who can’t turn the double play, right fielders with weak arms, it’s a baffling world. It’s probably better when players are not so narrowly defined, but it’s harder to compare them.

Third base: Alex Rodriguez vs. George Brett
My pick: Don’t make me do this.
Thoughts: OK, it’s clear that A-Rod has the better numbers and is the better overall player. Even in the context of the times, he has better numbers and is the better overall player. I am granting that right up front.

And, yes, I’m skeptical about clutch hitting – I don’t want to be one of these guys who rates one player above another because he supposedly hits better in the clutch.

And yet …

And yet, I can’t help it. Brett was SO good, so often in the big games; we are talking about the guy who hit .373 in his two World Series appearances, the guy who single-handedly beat Toronto in crucial Game 3 of the 1985 ALCS, the guy who hit three homers off of Catfish Hunter in Game 3 of the 1978 ALCS in a desperate attempt to keep his team alive, the guy who homered in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the 1976 ALCS, tying the game (and setting up Chris Chambliss’ heroics), the guy who always, always, always, seemed to come through when it mattered most. He was quite easily the best player on those Royals teams that always made the playoffs, always-always, and many years he simply would not let them lose. We’ve done this before, but take a look again at the lineup for the 1985 World Series Royals?

1B: Steve Baloni, .243/307/.477, 36 homers, 88 RBIs.
2B: Frank White, .249/.284/.414, 22 homers, 69 RBIs.
SS: Onix Concepcion, .204/.255/.245 (yikes!), 2 homers, 20 RBIs.
SS (2): Buddy Biancalana: .188/.277/.261, 1 homer, 6 RBIs
LF: Lonnie Smith: .257/.321/.366, 6 homers, 41 RBIs.
CF: Willie Wilson: .278/.316/.356, 21 triples, 87 runs.
RF: Darryl Motley: .222/.257/.413, 17 homers, 49 RBIs.
DH: Hal McRae: .259/.349/.450, 14 homers, 70 RBIs.

Look at that team. THAT team won the World Series. You don’t have a single guy with an OBP higher .350. You don’t have a single guy who hit .280. Sure, they did get good starting pitching and a great year out of Quiz in the bullpen. But, let’s say it again: THAT TEAM WON THE WORLD SERIES.

And, of course, there was George.

George Brett: .335/.436/.585, 30 homers, 112 RBIs, 108 runs, 31 intentional walks.

George that year hit .396 with runners in scoring position and two outs. He hit .545 with the bases loaded. He hit .550 with just a man on third. It’s hard to fathom any one player carrying a team more than Brett did in 1985.

Could A-Rod do that? It’s just a question. A-Rod has precisely the opposite reputation. It’s a reputation that I don’t think is fair – he’s actually a .304 lifetime hitter with runners in scoring position with a .953 OPS, plus clutch hitting, if it exists at all, is pretty wildly overstated – but it is true that A-Rod has a .104 batting average his last two playoff series too. And he does seem to think an awful lot about things when the game is on the line. And I don’t get the impression that his teammates have ultimate faith in him – it would be hard for me to imagine ARod walking into the clubhouse before Game 3 (the way Brett did) and said: “Climb on my back; I’m carrying us tonight..”

A-Rod is a better player than Brett, I think – he will (and should) be viewed as one of the best players in baseball history. Much more power. Gets on base more. Higher lifetime batting average (if you can believe that). More stolen bases. The whole thing.

But let me ask you this – and I know it’s not a fair question because we already know the result. But I’ll ask anyway: If you were manager of the 1985 Kansas City Royals, and you were told you had to win the World Series or lose your job – who would you take, George Brett or A-Rod?

RF: Vladimir Guerrero vs. Reggie Jackson
My pick: Vlad.
Thoughts: In 1969, Reggie Jackson was 23 years old and the best player in baseball. He hit .275, but he also walked 114 times. He hit 47 homers. He had a 187 ERA+. It is one of the great 23-year-old seasons in baseball history:

Top seasons for 23-year-old hitters since the Deadball era (ranked by RCAA – runs created above average):

1. Ted Williams, 1942: .356, 36, 136, 1.147 OPS
2. Albert Pujols, 2003: .359, 43, 124, 1.106 OPS
3. Arky Vaughn, 1935: .385, 19, 99, 1.098 OPS
4. Stan Musial, 1944: .347, 12, 94, .990 OPS
5. Mickey Mantle, 1955: .306, 37, 99. 1.042 OPS
6. Reggie Jackson, 1969: .275, 47, 118, 1.018 OPS
7. Frank Thomas, 1991: .318, 32, 109, 1.006 OPS
(tie). Willie Mays, 1954: .345, 41, 110, 1.078.

In fact, Reggie’s 47 homers ranks second all-time for players 23 and younger (only a 23-year-old Mark McGwire in that crazy 1987 season hit more – it’s amazing that the top two young home run hitters both played in that awful-hitting Oakland Coliseum).

Reggie was never quite that good again. He stopped walking for one thing. He never again came within five homers of 47 in a season. He played in a lousy offensive era and, for much of his career, in lousy offensive parks. This is not to downplay Reggie – he still ended up with a terrific Hall of Fame career, and he was Mr. October, and he had the candy bar and all that. But at 23, he looked like he might be even better – he looked like he might become one of the 10 best ever. And he didn’t become that.

Vlady, meanwhile, is a phenomenon. His advantages over Reggie are decisive – 60 point batting average advantage, 35 point OBP advantage, 90 point SLG advantage – and while some of that is context, his OPS+ is better also. And Guerrero has a chance this year to have his best season yet.

Centerfield: Ichiro vs. Richie Zisk(?)
My pick: Ichiro
Thoughts: In the actual 1977 game, Yaz started in center field, but I think we’ll leave Yaz in left where he belongs. And Reggie belongs in right so we’ll keep him there too. We’ll match up Zisk and Ichiro. Did you know that Zisk actually has a higher OPS+ (126) than Ichiro (121)? I didn’t. Anyway, Ichiro’s the better player.

Leftfield: Magglio Ordonez vs. Carl Yastrzemski.
My pick: Whew.
Thoughts: Depends on how you want to judge this. Yaz by 1977 was declining as a player. Magglio is absolutely mashing the ball – he’s on pace to hit 70 doubles this year. So (and I guess I should have figured this out before we started) if it’s Magglio in 2007 vs. Yaz in 1977, then it’s definitely Maggs. If it’s Yaz vs. Maggs as players in their peak, I’d take Yaz. What to do, what to do. I think the point here is probably to just pick the better player, the one you would rather have in their prime. I’ll take Yaz.

Catcher: Pudge Rodriguez vs. Pudge Fisk
My pick: Pudge.
Thoughts: But which Pudge?*

Is Ivan Rodriguez the greatest catcher ever? I think it probably comes down to three: Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench and Rodriguez. Berra was probably the most powerful hitter of the three over a whole career, though you would probably take Bench in his prime. Rodriguez has the best batting average, but he actually has the lowest on-base percentage of the three because he never walks. Bench was probably the best defensive catcher of the three and of all time, but it’s really close between him and Rodriguez. And Bench became a third baseman at 34, while Rodriguez at 35 is still the best catcher in the business. Rodriguez has lasted longer and has the best counting numbers, but he’s the only one of the three to not win multiple World Series, and while that isn’t his fault, it certainly isn’t something you want to take away from the other two. It’s very close.

I think looking over the evidence, the greatest catcher of all time is: Josh Gibson.

What a copout.

(I know there are Mike Piazza fans who want him high on this list, and Piazza was a better hitter than any of the three – he’s the best hitting catcher ever. And as I’ve said here before, I’ve had a scout friend tell me Piazza was actually a better catcher than his reputation. But, honestly, he could not have helped but be better than his reputation, right? He wasn’t good defensively at all, and I just think catcher is too unique a position to put a bad defender in the Top 3. As always, I’m willing to be convinced otherwise).

-- An early commenter pointed out that Fisk -- the original Pudge -- was much better in 1977 (.923 OPS -- 139 OPS+) than Pudge v2.0 is this year (.737 OPS, 93 OPS+). The objection is duly noted, but I'll stick with Rodriguez. It is worth pointing out that Pudge v2.0 has walked FOUR times this year.

*Clarified post to differentiate between the two Pudges.

So totaling it up, I’ve got three All Stars from 1977 – Carew, Randolph, Yaz. I’ve got four from 2007 – Jeter, Vlady, Ichiro, Pudge. And I’ve got the Brett-ARod tossup. Sigh. Let’s take Brett and make it an even 4-4.

Tomorrow: NL All-Stars, 1977 and Now.

You want to be passive-aggressive, really

We want to thank brilliant reader Ryan for pointing out this quote from Buddy Bell in today’s Kansas City Star. He said it yesterday after the Royals lost to Chicago and pitcher Jon Garland 3-1. I read the quote first thing this morning, but I must admit to having read enough managers’ quotes through the years to have just sort of breezed through it without giving it the proper consideration. That was my mistake.

Here’s the quote:

"With the kind of pitcher (Jon Garland) is, you want to be aggressive," Bell said. "You know he's going to throw strikes, so you want to get after him early in the count. We probably made it a little easy for him. We weren't as patient as we should have been and swung at some balls out of the zone early.”

OK, what? How baffling is that? Remember when you had to diagram sentences in school? Do kids still have to do that? Well try diagramming the logic of this sentence.

Point 1: You know Garland will throw strikes.
Point 2: You want to be aggressive and get after him early in the count.
Point 3: We were aggressive and got after him early in the count.
Point 4: Garland did not throw strikes.
Point 5: We should have known that.
Point 6: You don’t want to be aggressive and get after him early in the count.

Hitting is a very difficult thing to do – the most difficult act in sports, most people will tell you. Explaining hitting, apparently, is even harder.

Seinfeld Minor Characters

Editor's Note: We'll be back this afternoon (I hope) with an all-star blog. In the meantime, instead of an aside, you get a full Seinfeld minor character blog:

There are, best I can tell, a couple of things you can do to express that you are a BIG fan of someone. Well, there are more than a couple of things you could do – you could, I suppose, stalk that celebrity, or you could dress like them, or you could get plastic surgery so you looked like them or you could hang photographs of them all over your house, but I’m really referring here to people who are not insane.

(As an aside: I do not get the idea behind those gigantic Fathead stickers of sports celebrities that people put on their walls. Hey, I love sports more than most, but what’s the deal with that? Maybe if you’re a kid it would be cool to have a humongous David Wright on your wall over your bed. But really these things seem marketed – and priced – for adults, and while I’m no interior decorator, I do have to question the general tastes of a person that wants a gigantic Martin Brodeur stopping pucks on his wall at home).

Anyway, the two ways of expressing super fanhood are:

1. Go obscure. If you are a big fan of someone/something, you cannot just like their mainstream work. You have to go into their little known, minor work. Say you are a big fan of, I don’t know, the Police. Someone asks you to name your favorite Police song. What do you say?

A. “Oh man, I love so many Police songs, but probably “Every Little Thing She Does is Magic” is my favorite. I love “Message in a Bottle” too. And “Roxanne.” And so many. They were just so great.”
B. “I could never reduce my love of the Police to one song.”
C. “You wouldn’t know it – it was only available on an import.”
D. “Probably “Truth Hits Everybody” off the Outlando D’Amour record, I just love the way Stewart Copeland plays on that song, you know, it was really big in Australia, and that’s when the Police were real, man, before they hit it big, before they sold out, you know?”

The correct answer is: (E) “Probably ‘Truth Hits Everybody,’ but only on the bootleg from Milwaukee in 1980. They really played it well in Des Moines too in ’83 – I think that was the day Andy Summers broke up with his girlfriend, and he was so on.”

2. Insist that you discovered the act – you were on to them years before anyone else.

So, I can tell you now that I discovered Jerry Seinfeld – I was on to him years before anyone else. It’s true. Back in college – years before “Seinfeld” hit the airwaves – my friend Joe Habina and I would always acknowledge each other by saying, “It’s that guy! That’s same guy!” That comes from an early Seinfeld bit about his dog, and how his dog would always be so happy and surprised to see him. He would walk out of the room for one minute, come back, and the dog would have that stunned look, “Hey! It’s that guy! That same guy!” Well, it’s funnier in person.

Anyway, as a big Jerry Seinfeld fan, I was so excited to see his show when it hit the air, and at first I can distinctly remember feeling disappointed. First of all, those early shows weren’t very good. Seinfeld was one horrendous actor at first. I mean, he never became Olivier, but in those early shows he was so stiff and confused and he couldn’t stop laughing – he acted like someone PRETENDING to be a bad actor.

Of course the show found its speed, in large part because the four main characters were so good, but also because they had so many great minor characters. So for your beginning of the week bonus, here are the 10 best Seinfeld minor characters.

10. Susan Ross. George’s fiancée who died after licking poisonous wedding invitation envelopes. That was a very twisted turn for the show, wasn’t it? I mean I realize they had to get her off the show, but was that really necessary? Susan (Heidi Swedberg) wasn’t actually that good a character, but I thought she was cute. Apparently not everyone thought so. Once we were in a Mexican restaurant, and our waitress was a dead ringer for Susan – I mean, at first we thought it really was her. So I said something to her about it. Big mistake. She was SO offended. She really thought it was a huge insult.

This brings me to a much larger point that probably deserves its own blog: Women and men have very different views about what constitutes a beautiful woman. I won’t get into it now, but I will say that when People Magazine named Drew Barrymore their most beautiful woman this year (over Scarlett Johansson? Natalie Portman? Halle Barry? The Jessicas? Beyonce?), my first and only thought was: “Well, I guess women did the voting.”

9. George Steinbrenner. I thought the Steinbrenner character got old after a little while, but the first couple of episodes of Steinbrenner were absolutely hilarious. And, of course, there was the classic exchange when George was alerting Mr. and Mrs. Costanza that George was dead.

Steinbrenner: He'd been logging some pretty heavy hours, first one in the morning, last one to leave at night. That kid was a human dynamo.
Mrs. Costanza: Are you sure you're talking about George?
Steinbrenner: You are Mr. and Mrs. Costanza?
Mr. Costanza: What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for? He had 30 home runs and over 100 RBIs last year. He's got a rocket for an arm. You don't know what the hell you're doing!
Steinbrenner: Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people loved Ken Phelps' bat. They kept saying "Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps."

Steinbrenner was voiced, you probably know, by Larry David.

8. Kenny Bania. “They have the best pea soup in the city, Jerry. The best.”

7. Tim Whatley. The dentist who converts to Judaism for the jokes.

Whatley: Jerry, It is our sense of humor that sustained us for 3,000 years.
Jerry: It’s 5,000.
Whatley: Five thousand, even better. (To assistant). OK, Chrissie, give me a shtickle of fluoride.

6. Frank Costanza: “I wasn’t born here, so I can’t be president. That’s why I don’t vote. If they don’t want me, I DON’T WANT THEM!”

5. Jackie Chiles. Johnnie Cochran type lawyer -- he’s the one minor character that, to me, could have had his own show – a funny version of “Judge Judy.” My favorite Jackie Chiles exchange happens when Kramer sues Sue Ellen Mischke, the Oh Henry Bar heiress, for walking streets in only her bra (“lewd, lascivious, salacious, outrageous!”) and causes Kramer to get into an accident.

Jackie: "So she's walking around with nothing but a bra on? You're driving along, get distracted, wreck and ruin your dream of being a golfer."
Kramer: So, do you think we have a case?”
Jackie: “I don’t know.”
Kramer: “She’s the heiress to the Oh Henry candy bar fortune.”
Jackie: “Really? I love Oh Henry bars. It has peanuts...nougat ... chocolate ... yes we definitely have a case!”

4. David Puddy. Elaine’s on-again, off-again boyfriend has lots of great moments, like the time he was wearing the jacket with an eight ball on the back. “Are you going to wear that all the time?” she asked him. He pointed to the eight ball and said, “All signs point to yes.”

But my favorite moment happened on the plane when Puddy sat on the plane and just stared at the seat in front of him. Elaine asked him if he was going to read or go to sleep, he said no. “Are you going to just stare at the seat in front of you?” she asked. “Yeah,” he said. And they broke up again.

3. Newman. Jerry’s nemesis. Quote: “Hear me, and hear me well. The day will come. Oh yes! Mark my words, Seinfeld. Your day of reckoning is coming, when an evil wind will blow through your little play world and wipe that smug smile off your face. And I'll be there, in all my glory, watching.”

2. Babu Bhatt. “You’re a bad man! Very, very bad man!”

1. Bookman. The best minor character in the history of television, Bookman was the library investigations officer who ran down Jerry for a book (Tropic of Capricorn) he had checked out many years ago and never returned. Bookman gives this soliloquy:

“Let me tell you something, funny boy. You know that little stamp that says New York Public Library? Well that may not mean anything to you but that means a lot to me, one whole hell of a lot. Sure, go ahead, laugh if you want to; I've seen your type before, flashy, makin' the scene, flaunting convention. Yeah, I know what you're thinking:
‘What's this guy making such a big stink about old library books?’ Well let me give you a hint, junior. Maybe we can live without libraries, people like you and me. Maybe. Sure, we're too old to change the world. But what about that kid, sitting down opening a book, right now, in a branch of the local library, and finding drawings of pee-pees and wee-wees in The Cat in the Hat and The Five Chinese Brothers. Doesn't he deserve better? Look, if you think this is about overdue fines and missing books, you better think again; this is about that kid's right to read a book without getting his mind warped. Or, maybe that turns you on, Seinfeld. Maybe that's how you get your kicks, you and your good-time buddies. Well I got a flash for you, joy-boy: Party time is over. You got seven days, Seinfeld. That is one week.”

TSOB recommendation: If you have not checked out the movie Hard Eight, (also called Sydney, for some reason), I cannot recommend it more highly. It isn’t that the movie itself is all that great – I like it, but the movie isn’t exactly “Goodfellas.”

In this case, the movie isn’t the point. It has several classic actors playing classic roles. It has actor John C. Reilly doing his, “I have no idea what I’m doing” act which is always entertaining. It has Gwyneth Paltrow back in her supreme days playing a desperate cocktail waitress and hooker. It has Samuel L. Jackson doing his, “I’m one crazy MF” routine. It has Phillip Seymour Hoffman playing a bit role as a loser – which he does supremely well. And it has Phillip Baker Hall doing his Bookman routine for an entire movie. I mean, seriously, any one of these five would make a movie worth seeing – you get all five in one movie? A must see.